《不景气时代的经济》PPT课件.ppt

1、Tom Peters Re-Imagine!Business Excellence in a Disruptive Age,“In Toms world, its always better to try a swan dive and deliver a colossal belly flop than to step timidly off the board while holding your nose.” Fast Company /October2003,Slides at ,I. NEW BUSINESS. NEW CONTEXT.,“Uncertainty is the onl

2、y thing to be sure of.” Anthony Muh,head of investment in Asia, Citigroup Asset Management “If you dont like change, youre going to like irrelevance even less.” General Eric Shinseki, Chief of Staff, U. S. Army,All Bets Are Off.,Jobs TechnologyGlobalization War, Warfighting 6% global exports 2003 vs

3、. 3.9% 2000; 16% of Total Global Growth in 2002.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale offset by $450B in foreign investment; foreign companies account for 50+% of exports vs. 31% in Mexico, 15% in Korea.Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale 80% of workforce (incl. rural) now in private employ.Source

4、: “China Takes Off”, David Hale two-thirds of housing privately owned, 90% of urban Chinese own a home (vs. 61% in Japan)Source: “China Takes Off”, David Hale 33.33%: DVD-ROM drives, personal desktop and notebook computers; 25% mobile phones, color TVs, PDAs, car stereos).Source: “China Takes Off”,

5、David Hale EU, 16%; China, 13% (2X since1991)Source: New York Times/12.14.2003,“With a Small Car, India Takes Big Step Onto Global Stage” Headline, p. 1, WSJ, 02.05.2004,Indian GDP/1990-2002: Ag, 34% to 21%; services, 40% to 56%Source: The Economist/02.04,Level 5 (top) ranking/Carnegie Mellon Softwa

6、re Engineering Institute: 35 of 70 companies in world are from IndiaSource: Wired/02.04,“Forget India, Lets Go to Bulgaria” Headline, BW/03.04, re SAP, BMW, Siemens et al. “near-shoring”,“CLONING COLLEGE: South Koreas biomedical researchers, unhampered by politics, do world-class research on the che

7、ap” Headline, Newsweek/03.01.04,Jobs TechnologyGlobalizationSecurity,“This is a dangerous world and it is going to become more dangerous.”“We may not be interested in chaos but chaos is interested in us.”Source: Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century,“The

8、 worlds new dimension (computers, Internet, globalization, instantaneous communication, widely available instruments of mass destruction and so on) amounts to a new metaphysics that, by empowering individual zealots or agitated tribes with unappeasable grievances, makes the world unstable and danger

9、ous in radically new ways.” Lance Morrow/Evil,All Bets Are Off!,“There will be more confusion in the business world in the next decade than in any decade in history. And the current pace of change will only accelerate.”Steve Case,“We are in a brawl with no rules.”Paul Allaire,S.A.V.,“Strategy meetin

10、gs held once or twice a year” to “Strategy meetings needed several times a week” Source: New York Times on Meg Whitman/eBay,“How we feel about the evolving future tells us who we are as individuals and as a civilization: Do we search for stasisa regulated, engineered world? Or do we embrace dynamism

11、a world of constant creation, discovery and competition? Do we value stability and control? Or evolution and learning? Do we think that progress requires a central blueprint? Or do we see it as a decentralized, evolutionary process? Do we see mistakes as permanent disasters? Or the correctable bypro

12、ducts of experimentation? Do we crave predictability? Or relish surprise? These two poles, stasis and dynamism, increasingly define our political, intellectual and cultural landscape.” Virginia Postrel, The Future and Its Enemies,Successful Businesses Dozen Truths: TPs 30-Year Perspective1. Insanely

13、 Great 18 in 87 F100; 18 F100 “survivors” underperformed the market by 20%; just 2 (2%), GE 12 (2.4%) of 500 outperformed the market from 1957 to 1997.Source: Dick Foster market-share leader is ROA leader 29% of the time Profit / ROA leaders: “aggressively weed out customers who generate low returns

14、” Source: Donald V. Potter, Wall Street Journal,“The $58B hostile bid by Sanofi-Synthelabo for Aventis has been greeted skeptically, as has the news that Novartis may counterbid. Few investors believe that Big Pharma can compensate for a deficit of new drugs by getting bigger. Some suspect the conve

15、rse is true: that size has made them sluggish. That has led to some thinking the unthinkable: that pharmaceutical companies should leave drug discovery to biotech companies and focus their efforts on development and marketing.” Financial Times/03.2004,Winning the Merger Game Is Possible-Lots of deal

16、s-Little deals-Friendly deals-Stay close to core competence-Strategy is easy to understandSource: “The Mega-merger Mouse Trap”/Wall Street Journal/02.17.2004/David Harding e.g., Citigroup.)2. Big (GE, Cisco, Omnicom) acquires small/specialist = Good if you can retain Top Talent.3. Odds on achieving

17、“projected synergies” among Mixed Big “cultures”: 10%.4. Max Scale Advantages are achieved at a smaller size than imagined.5. Attacked by Big, Mediocre Medium marries Mediocre Medium to “bulk up.” Result: Big Mediocrity or worse.6. Any sizeif Great 2X Y2000.Wells Fargo: 1/3rd; 3.3M; 50% lower attrit

18、ion rate; 50% higher growth in balances than off-line; more likely to cross-purchase; “happier and stay with the bank much longer.”Source: The Wall Street Journal/10.21.2002,IS/IT is strategy!,5% F500 have CIO on Board: “While some of the worlds most admired companiesTesco, Wal*Martare transforming

19、the business landscape by including technology experts on their boards, the vast majority are missing out on ways to boost productivity, competitiveness and shareholder value.”Source: Burson-Marsteller,4. The White Collar Revolution.,Steel: 75,000,000 tons in 82 to 102,000,000 tons in 02. 289,000 st

20、eelworkers in 82 to 74,000 steelworkers in 02. Source: Fortune/11.24.03,E.g. Jeff Immelt: 75% of “admin, back room, finance” “digitalized” in 3 years.Source: BW (01.28.02),“A bureaucrat is an expensive microchip.”Dan Sullivan, consultant and executive coach,Deep Blue Redux*: 2,240 EKGs 1,120 heart a

21、ttacks. Hans Ohlin (50 yr old chief of coronary care, Univ of Lund/SW) : 620. Lars Edenbrandts software: 738.*Only this time it matters!,“Organizations will still be critically important in the world, but as organizers, not employers!” Charles Handy,“Dont own nothin if you can help it. If you can, r

22、ent your shoes.”F.G.,“P 100K employees; 60% p.a. growth (93-00)- “contract mfg” to EMS/Electronics Manufacturing Services (design, mfg, logistics, repair); “total package of outsourcing solutions” (Pamela Gordon, Technology Forecasters)- “The future of manufacturing isnt just in making things but ad

23、ding value” (3,500 design engineers)Source: Asia Inc./02.2004,“UPS wants to take over the sweet spot in the endless loop of goods, information and capital that all the packages it moves represent.” (E.g., UPS Logistics manages the logistics of 4.5M Ford vehicles, from 21 mfg. sites to 6,000 NA deale

24、rs),“SCS”/Supply Chain Solutions: 750 locations; $2.5B; fastest growing division; 19 acquisitions, including a bankSource: Fast Company/02.04,“No longer are we only an insurance provider. Today, we also offer our customers the products and services that help them achieve their dreams, whether its fi

25、nancial security, buying a car, paying for home repairs, or even taking a dream vacation.”Martin Feinstein, CEO, Farmers Group,“ Architecture is becoming a commodity. Winners will be Turnkey Facilities Management providers.”SMPS Exec,Omnicom: 60% (of $7B) from marketing services,And the Winners Are

26、Televisions 12%Cable TV service +5%Toys -10%Child care +5%Photo equipment -7%Photographers fees +3%Sports Equipment -2%Admission to sporting event +3%New car -2%Car repair +3%Dishes its a means of rediscovering oneself, of inventing an entirely new me. ”Source: Jean-Marie Dru, Disruption,“The Starbu

27、cks Fix” Is on “We have identified a third place. And I really believe that sets us apart. The third place is that place thats not work or home. Its the place our customers come for refuge.”Nancy Orsolini, District Manager,“Guinness as a brand is all about community. Its about bringing people togeth

28、er and sharing stories.”Ralph Ardill, Imagination, in re Guinness Storehouse,Experience: “Rebel Lifestyle!”“What we sell is the ability for a 43-year-old accountant to dress in black leather, ride through small towns and have people be afraid of him.”Harley exec, quoted in Results-Based Leadership,W

29、HAT CAN BROWN DO FOR YOU?,Bob Lutz: “I see us as being in the art business. Art, entertainment and mobile sculpture, which, coincidentally, also happens to provide transportation.” Source: NYT 10.19.01,“Lexus sells its cars as containers for our sound systems. Its marvelous.”Sidney Harman/ Harman In

30、ternational,Duet Whirlpool “washing machine” to “fabric care system” white goods: “a sea of undifferentiated boxes” $400 to $1,300 “the Ferrari of washing machines” consumer: “They are our little mechanical buddies. They have personality. When they are running efficiently, our lives are running effi

31、ciently. They are part of my family.” “machine as aesthetic showpiece” “laundry room” to “family studio” / “designer laundry room” (complements Sub-Zero refrigerator and home-theater center)Source: New York Times Magazine/01.11.2004,From “Service to “Cause”7X. 730A-800P. F12A.*Plus: WOW Department”

32、“Kill a Stupid Rule” contests, etc. 2001R: 34%; P: 29%; 90-00: 2,048%. Commerce Bank/NJ ($10B). Source: FC05.02.,“Car designers need to create a story. Every car provides an opportunity to create an adventure. “The Prowler makes you smile. Why? Because its focused. It has a plot, a reason for being,

33、 a passion.”Freeman Thomas, co-designer VW Beetle; designer Audi TT,Hmmmm(?): “Only” Words StoryAdventureSmile FocusPlotPassion,Experience Cirque du Soleil,DO YOU MEASURE UP?*If not, why not?,“Most executives have no idea how to add value to a market in the metaphysical world. But that is what the m

34、arket will cry out for in the future. There is no lack of physical products to choose between.”Jesper Kunde, Unique Now . or Never on the excellence of Nokia, Nike, Lego, Virgin et al.,Extraction assertive; get to the point; pushy; condescending; insensitive to womens needs.Source: Judith Tingley, H

35、ow to Sell to the Opposite Sex (Martha Barletta, Marketing to Women),Read This: Barbara Women, peripheral.Hearing: Womens discomfort level I/2 mens.Smell: Women Men.Touch: Most sensitive man Least sensitive women.Source: Martha Barletta, Marketing to Women,Sensitivity to differences: Twice as many c

36、ard stacks.More “contextual,” “holistic.”“People powered”: Age 3 days, baby girls 2X eye contact. Source: Martha Barletta, Marketing to Women,“When a woman is upset, she talks emotionally to her friends; but an upset man rebuilds a motor or fixes a leaking tap.”Barbara more loyal once convinced.Men:

37、 Snap decision; fickle.Source: Martha Barletta, Marketing to Women,2.6 vs. 21,“War has broken out over your home-improvement dollar, and Lowes has superpower Home Depot on the defensive. Its not-so-secret ploy: Lure women.” F,“Volvo Teams Up to Build What Women Want: Concept Car Goes for Great Stora

38、ge, Easy Maintenance” headline/USA Today/12.16.2003/140-person team;80% women,Not!“Year of the Woman”,Enterprise Reinvention!RecruitingHiring/Rewarding/PromotingStructure ProcessesMeasurementStrategyCulture VisionLeadershipTHE BRAND ITSELF!,“Honey, are you sure you have the kind of money it takes to

39、 be looking at a car like this?”,Psssst! Wanna see my “porn” collection?,Ad from Furniture /Today (04.01):“MEET WITH THE EXPERTS!: How Retailings Most Successful Stay that Way”Presenting Experts: M = 16;F = ? (94% = 272),0,“Customer is King”: 4,440“Customer is Queen”: 29Source: Steve Farber/Google s

40、earch/04.2002,F.Y.I.,“Women Beat Men at Art of Investing”Source: Miami Herald, reporting on a study by Profs. Terrance Odean and Brad Barber, UC Davis (Cause: Guys are “in and out” of stocks more often; women choose carefully and hold on for the long term),Investment Club ReturnsWomen-only clubs 199

41、7 17.9%Mixed 17.3%Men-only 15.6%Source: National Assoc. Investors,Value Line: Top State* Investment Clubs 20008 All male19 Coed22 All FEMALE* VT D.C. included,1. Men and women are different.2. Very different.3. VERY, VERY DIFFERENT.4. Women 60% larger by 2010Source: Ageless Marketing, David Wolfe it

42、 has the intensity and the importance of the budget process at most companies.”Ed Michaels,“The leaders of Great Groups love talent and know where to find it. They revel in the talent of others.”Warren Bennis IBP/Internal Brand Promise per TP,EVP = Challenge, professional growth, respect, satisfacti

43、on, opportunity, rewardSource: Ed Michaels et al., The War for Talent,Our MissionTo develop and manage talent;to apply that talent,throughout the world, for the benefit of clients;to do so in partnership; to do so with profit.WPP,Talents “Big Two” RulesGREAT Finance Dept. = GREAT Football TeamDIFFER

44、ENCES Among Cello Players = DIFFERENCES Among Hotel GMs,13A. Meet the New Boss: Women Rule!,“AS LEADERS, WOMEN RULE: New Studies find that female managers outshine their male counterparts in almost every measure”Title, Special Report, BusinessWeek, 11.20.00,Lawrence A. Pfaff 15 of 20 with statistica

45、l significance (incl. decisiveness, planning, setting stds.) “Men are not rated significantly higher by any of the raters in any of the areas measured.” (LP),The New Economy Shout goodbye to “command and control”!Shout goodbye to hierarchy!Shout goodbye to “knowing ones place”!,Womens Strengths Matc

46、h New Economy Imperatives: Link rather than rank workers; favor interactive-collaborative leadership style empowerment beats top-down decision making; sustain fruitful collaborations; comfortable with sharing information; see redistribution of power as victory, not surrender; favor multi-dimensional

47、 feedback; value technical appreciate cultural diversity.Source: Judy B. Rosener, Americas Competitive Secret: Women Managers,“Society is based on male standards with women seen as anomalies deviating from the male norm.” Bi Puvaneu, Institute for Future Studies (Stockholm),“On average, women and me

48、n possess a number of different innate skills. And current trends suggest that many sectors of the twenty-first-century economic community are going to need the natural talents of women.”Helen Fisher, The First Sex: The Natural Talents of Women and How They Are Changing the World,“TAKE THIS QUICK QU

49、IZ: Who manages more things at once? Who puts more effort into their appearance? Who usually takes care of the details? Who finds it easier to meet new people? Who asks more questions in a conversation? Who is a better listener? Who has more interest in communication skills? Who is more inclined to

50、get involved? Who encourages harmony and agreement? Who has better intuition? Who works with a longer to do list? Who enjoys a recap to the days events? Who is better at keeping in touch with others?”Source: Selling Is a Womans Game: 15 Powerful Reasons Why Women Can Outsell Men, Nicki Joy 2010: 142

51、Wom:Men/Masters 2000: 138; 2010: 151* Whites, Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Native AmericansSource: The New Gender Gap/BusWeek/05.26.2003,“THE NEW GENDER GAP: From kindergarten to grad school, boys are becoming the second sex”Cover story, BusinessWeek/26 May 2003,“Are men obsolete?” Headline, USN in fa

52、ct, women often earned higher performance ratings than men in their first years with the firm. Yet the percentage of women decreased with step up the career ladder. Most women werent leaving to raise families; they had weighed their options in Deloittes male-dominated culture and found them wanting.

53、 Many, dissatisfied with a culture they perceived as endemic to professional service firms, switched professions.”Douglas McCracken, “Winning the Talent War for Women” HBR,“The process of assigning plum accounts was largely unexamined. Male partners made assumptions: I wouldnt put her on that kind o

54、f company because its a tough manufacturing environment. That client is difficult to deal with. Travel puts too much pressure on women. ”Douglas McCracken, “Winning the Talent War for Women” HBR,!14 to 168*Leadership Positions/D no, the person for him to be afraid of is some ignorant antagonist who

55、has never had a sword in his hand before; he doesnt do the thing he ought to do, and so the expert isnt prepared for him; he does the thing he ought not to do and often it catches the expert out and ends him on the spot.” Mark Twain,“To grow, companies need to break out of a vicious cycle of competi

56、tive benchmarking, imitation and pursuit.” W. Chan Kim 6 lose money; 6 do okay; 3 do well; 1 hits the jackpotSource: The Economist,Okay? 1 in 20 (4 in 20),Create.,24. Leaders Know that THERES MORE TO LIFE THAN “LINE EXTENSIONS.” Leaders Love to CREATE NEW MARKETS.,No one ever made it into the Busine

57、ss Hall of Fame on a record of “line extensions.”,“Acquisitions are about buying market share. Our challenge is to create markets. There is a big difference.” Peter Job, CEO, Reuters,25. Leaders Make Their Mark / Leaders Do Stuff That Matters,“I never, ever thought of myself as a businessman. I was

58、interested in creating things I would be proud of.” Richard Branson,“In 1933, Thomas J. Watson Sr. gave a speech at the Worlds Fair, World Peace through World Trade. We stood for something, right?” Sam Palmisano,Legacy!,CEO Assignment2002 (Bermuda): “Please leap forward to 2007, 2012, or 2022, and w

59、rite a business history of Bermuda. What will have been said about your company during your tenure?”,Ah, kids: “What is your vision for the future?” “What have you accomplished since your first book?” “Close your eyes and imagine me immediately doing something about what youve just said. What would it be?” “Do you feel you have an obligation to Make the world a better place?”,26. Leaders Push Their Organizations W-a-y Up the Value-added/ Intellectual Capital Chain,09.11.2000: HP bids $18,000,000,000for PricewaterhouseCoopersConsulting business!,27. Leaders L