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1、Chapter TenPrinciples of Risk ManagementThis chapter contains 30 multiple choice questions, 10 short problems, and 5 longer problems.Multiple Choice1. _ that matters because if affects peoples welfare. _ exists whenever one does not know for sure what will occur in the future.(a) Uncertainty is risk
2、; Uncertainty(b) Risk is uncertainty; Uncertainty(c) Risk is uncertainty; Risk(d) Uncertainty is risk; RiskAnswer: (b)2. _ is a measure of willingness to pay to reduce ones exposure to risk. (a) Risk aversion(b) Risk avariciousness(c) Risk predilection(d) Risk inflationAnswer: (a)3. When choosing am
3、ong investment alternatives with the same expected rate of return, a risk averse individual chooses the one with the _ risk.(a) surest(b) most uncertain(c) lowest (d) highestAnswer: (c)4. _ is a particular type of risk people face because of the nature of their business or pattern of consumption.(a)
4、 Operational efficiency exposure(b) Opportunity exposure(c) Risk exposure(d) Risk reductionAnswer: (c)5. _ are investors who take positions that increase their exposure to certain risks in the hope of increasing their wealth.(a) Operations insurers(b) Foreign exporters(c) Hedgers(d) SpeculatorsAnswe
5、r: (d)6. The riskiness of an asset or a transaction _ be assessed in isolation or in the abstract.(a) can (b) cannot(c) must(d) it varies according to the situationAnswer: (b)7. By definition, _ are investors who take positions to reduce their exposures.(a) operations insurers(b) foreign exporters(c
6、) hedgers(d) speculatorsAnswer: (c)8. The risk of loss arising from obsolescence due to technological change or changes in consumer taste is an example of _.(a) unemployment risk(b) liability risk(c) financial-asset risk(d) dconsumer-durable asset riskAnswer: (d)9. The risk arising from holding diff
7、erent kinds of financial assets such as equities or fixed income securities denominated in one or more currencies is an example of _.(a) unemployment risk(b) liability risk(c) financial-asset risk(d) consumer-durable asset riskAnswer: (c)10. Business risks of the firm are borne by its _.(a) sharehol
8、ders(b) creditors(c) employees(d) all of the aboveAnswer: (d)11. _ consists of figuring out what the most important risk exposures are for the unit of analysis.(a) Risk assessment(b) Selection of risk management techniques(c) Implementation(d) Risk identificationAnswer: (d)12. Which of the following
9、 is most likely to need a lot of life insurance?(a) a single person with no dependents(b) a divorced person with no dependents(c) a double-income couple with no kids(d) married person with childrenAnswer: (d)13. _ is the quantification of the costs associated with the risks that have been identified
10、 in the first step of risk management.(a) Risk assessment(b) Selection of risk management techniques(c) Implementation(d) ReviewAnswer: (a)14. Selling a risky asset to someone else and buying insurance are examples of _.(a) risk avoidance(b) loss prevention and control(c) risk transfer(d) risk reten
11、tionAnswer: (c)15. One is said to _ a risk when the action taken to reduce ones exposure to a loss also causes one to give up the possibility of a gain.(a) insure(b) diversify(c) hedge(d) pay a premium withAnswer: (c)16. When you _ you pay a premium to eliminate the risk of loss and retain the poten
12、tial for gain.(a) insure(b) diversify(c) hedge(d) speculateAnswer: (a)17. In order for diversification to reduce your risk exposure, the risks must be _(a) less than perfectly correlated with each other(b) more than perfectly correlated with each other(c) uncorrelated(d) none of the aboveAnswer: (a)
13、18. The demand for ways to manage risk has been increased by _.(a) increased volatility of exchange rates(b) increased volatility of interest rates(c) increased volatility of commodity prices(d) all of the aboveAnswer: (d)19. Moral hazard and adverse selection are examples of _.(a) transactions cost
14、s(b) incentive problems(c) transference costs(d) both a and bAnswer: (b)20. _ is defined as quantitative analysis for optimal risk management.(a) Portfolio theory(b) Corporate theory(c) Diversification theory(d) Probability theoryAnswer: (a)21. An asset portfolios expected return is identified with
15、the _ of the distribution, and its risk with the _.(a) variance; average(b) mean; standard deviation(c) standard deviation; average(d) median; normal distributionAnswer: (b)22. Suppose you buy shares of RayFran stock at a price of $110 per share and intend to hold them for a year. Suppose RayFran pa
16、ys a dividend of $3.50 per share over that year. Compute the total rate of return on a share of RayFran stock if at the end of the year you sell it for $122.50 per share.(a) 10.20%(b) 11.36%(c) 13.06%(d) 14.55%Answer: (d)23. The _ a stocks volatility, the _ the range of possible outcomes and the _ t
17、he probabilities of those returns at the extremes of the range.(a) larger; narrower; larger(b) larger; narrower; smaller(c) larger; wider; larger(d) larger; wider; smallerAnswer: (c)24. Consider the probability distribution of rate of return on RayFran stock:Rate of Return Probability40% 0.2515% 0.5
18、58% 0.20Compute the expected rate of return on RayFran stock.(a) 9.75%(b) 15.60%(c) 16.65%(d) 19.85%Answer: (c)25. Refer to question 24. Now compute the standard deviation of RayFran stock.(a) 12.95%(b) 13.10%(c) 16.10%(d) 25.90%Answer: (c)26. Consider a stock with an expected return of 15% and a st
19、andard deviation of 8% that is normally distributed. What is the 0.95 confidence interval for this stocks rate of return?(a) (7%, 23%)(b) (9%, 39%)(c) (1%, 39%)(d) (1%, 31%)Answer: (d)For questions 27 through 30, use the following table:Historical ReturnsYearToysRMeS.A.O. Rouge1234515%20%-5%12%10%13
20、%17%-7%8%6%27. What are the mean returns for ToysRMe and S.A.O. Rouge, respectively?(a) Toys R Me: 12.4%; S.A.O. Rouge: 10.2%(b) Toys R Me: 10.4%; S.A.O. Rouge: 7.4%(c) Toys R Me: 10.4%; S.A.O. Rouge: 10.2%(d) Toys R Me: 7.4%; S.A.O. Rouge: 10.4%Answer: (b)28. What is the standard deviation of retur
21、ns for Toys R Me? For S.A.O. Rouge?(a) Toys R Me: 8.4%; S.A.O. Rouge: 7.4%(b) Toys R Me: 8.40%; S.A.O. Rouge: 8.16%(c) Toys R Me: 10.4%; S.A.O. Rouge: 7.4%(d) Toys R Me: 10.4%; S.A.O. Rouge: 8.16%Answer: (b)29. Suppose the returns for Toys R Me and S.A.O. Rouge are normally distributed. Determine th
22、e 0.68 confidence interval for Toys R. Me.(a) (8.4%, 10.4%)(b) (14.8%, 35.6%)(c) (6.4%, 27.2%)(d) (2.00%; 18.80%)Answer: (d)30. Determine the 0.95 confidence interval for S.A.O. Rouge.(a) (7.14%, 8.16%)(b) (0.76, 15.56%)(c) (-8.92, 23.72%)(d) (17.08, 31.88%)Answer: (c)Short Problems1. Briefly distin
23、guish between the three methods available to transfer risk: hedging, insuring and diversifying.Answer:Hedging: One is said to hedge a risk when the action taken to reduce ones exposure to a loss also causes one to give up the possibility of a gain.Insuring: Insuring means paying a premium to elimina
24、te the risk of loss and retain the potential for gain.Diversifying: Diversifying means holding similar amounts of many risky assets instead of concentrating all of your investment in only one. Diversification thereby limits your exposure to the risk of any single asset.2. Outline the steps in the ri
25、sk-management process.Answer:The risk management process can be broken down into five steps:1. Risk identification2. Risk assessment3. Selection of risk management techniques4. Implementation5. Review3. Think of a bookstore. What risks is such a business exposed to, and who bears them?Answer:Major r
26、isks:Risk that inventory will not arrive on timeRisk that employees will be late or absentRisk that computers/registers will break downRisk of new competition in the area (especially - the superstores)Risk that distributors prices will increase dramatically These risks are borne by shareholders, own
27、ers, employees, creditors, customers, suppliers.4. Explain why the sale/purchase of a house is similar to a forward contract in nature.Answer:Both parties eliminate the uncertainty associated with price volatility in the housing market during the months of settling the contract between them. Even th
28、ough the transfer of ownership for the house wont happen for many months, the buyer and seller of a house can contractually settle on a transaction price for the house.5. Explain the difference between insuring and hedging.Answer:When you hedge, you eliminate the risk of loss by giving up the potent
29、ial for gain. However, when you insure, you pay a premium to eliminate the risk of loss and retain the potential for gain.6. Discuss the two factors limiting the efficient allocation of risks.Answer:Transactions costs and incentive problems are the two key factors limiting the efficient allocation o
30、f risks. Transactions costs include the costs of establishing and running institutions such as insurance companies or securities exchanges and the costs of writing and enforcing contracts.Moral hazard and adverse selection are examples of incentive problems, which stand in the way of the development
31、 of institutions for efficient risk sharing. Moral hazard exists when having insurance against some risk causes the insured party to take greater risk or to take less care in preventing the event that gives rise to the loss.The problem with adverse selection relates to the fact that those who purcha
32、se insurance against risk are more likely than the general population to be at risk.7. In the case of insuring a ship, explain how the moral hazard problem can lead to unwillingness on the part of the insurance company to insure against certain types of risk.Answer:If a ship owner buys insurance for
33、 his vessel, the existence of insurance may reduce the owners incentive to spend money on the upkeep of the vessel. Failure to take such precautions makes a safety hazard a more likely occurrence. In an extreme case, the owner may be tempted to sabotage the ship in order to collect the insurance mon
34、ey, if the coverage exceeds the market value of the ship.Due to this potential moral hazard, companies may limit the amount they will insure or simply refuse to insure under certain circumstances or require rigid inspections of a vessel to make sure its meets minimum safety standards.Consider the fo
35、llowing table to answer questions 8 through 10:Historical ReturnsYearOutDellMiniMoo12345-10%-2%5%10%18%5%15%-7%12%22%8. What is the mean share for OutDell? For MiniMoo?Answer:OutDell:E(r)= 10% + (2%) + 5% + 10% + 18%/5= 4.2%MiniMoo:E(r)= 5% + 15% +( 7%) + 12% + 22%/5= 9.4%MiniMoo has the higher expe
36、cted return.9. What is the standard deviation of returns for OutDell? For MiniMoo?Answer:OutDell:MiniMoo:10. Suppose the returns for OutDell and MiniMoo have normally distributed returns with means and standard deviations calculated in questions 8 and 9. For each stock, determine the range of return
37、s within two standard deviations of the mean.Answer:OutDell:0.95 confidence interval= 4.2 (2 x 9.64)= 4.2 19.28= (15.08%, 23.48%)MiniMoo:0.95 confidence interval= 9.4 (2 x 9.85)= 9.4 19.70= (10.30%, 29.10%)Challenging Questions1. Consider the following investment opportunity. You have the opportunit
38、y to open a restaurant in your town for $180,000. If business is healthy and strong, you could net $100,000 in after-tax cash flows each year over the next six years.a)Would you consider hedging or insuring? Why?b)What risk is such a business exposed to:Answer:a)You would be more likely to consider
39、insuring. You would insure the restaurant against fire or other disasters, take all necessary safety precautions. You would also want to retain the potential for gain in operating your business.b)Risk that employees will be late or absent.Risk that inventory will not arrive on time.Risk that equipme
40、nt will break down.Risk that fire may occur.Risk that restaurant may be robbed.Risk that the restaurant may be vandalized.Risk that raw material prices will increase unpredictability.Risk of new competition in the area.2. Consider a persons life cycle - that is, at various ages say, mid-twenties, la
41、te thirties to early forties, mid-fifties and late sixties and beyond. What risks is a person likely to face in each of these age groups and how would cash, bonds and stocks be perceived at these various stages of life?Answer:Mid-twenties: A person may tend to be more aggressive in terms of risk tol
42、erance. Stocks are more likely to be the choice of investment, followed by bonds and cash.Late thirties to early forties: For DINK, the capacity for risk is still quite high. However, those who are parents may be faced with college tuition, life insurance, etc. so some risk options diminish. A perso
43、n in this group would perhaps be a little less aggressive with stocks. Mid-fifties: People in this group need to start thinking more about retirement and income protection. Major health costs may also be a consideration as it is for people in the sixties and beyond group. There tends to be little or
44、 no capacity for risk and the securities or investments sought at this stage tend to be very conservative. 3. Use the following table: State of EconomyRate of Return on DinkiDiProbabilityStrongNormalWeak60%12%-20%0.200.600.20a)Compute the mean return on DinkiDi stock.b)Compute the standard deviation on DinkiDi stock.c)Comment on value you obtained in (b).Answer:a.E(r)= (0.20)(60%) + (0.60)(12%) + (0.20
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