AP_Macroeconomics_Review宏观经济学AP课程PPT

,AP Macroeconomics Review,basic economic concepts, scarcity,choice and opportunity costs PPC(PPF), comparative advantage,specialization,and,exchange, demand,supply,and equilibrium,All economic questions and problems arise becausehuman wants exceed the resources available to satisfythem.,Scarcity:,The condition that arises because the availableresources are insufficient to satisfy wants.,Faced with scarcity, we must make choices we mustchoose among the available alternatives.,Because scarcity exists we have the study of,economics. The economic problem is how to bestallocate scarce resources to meet the wants and needsof human societies.,Economics:,The social science concerned with how individuals,institutions, and society make optimal (best) choices,under conditions of scarcity .,Two big economic questions:, How choices determine what, how, and for whom,goods and services get produced?, When do choices made in self-interest also,promote social interest ?,Opportunity cost, The next best thing that you must give up to getsomething the highest-valued alternative forgone., Examples:, staying in school vs. dropping out, studying for a test vs. going to a sporting event G oing to college vs. entering the workforce, Remember that every time you make a choice it is,costing you an opportunity., Micro and Macro Views of the WorldMicroeconomics : The study of the choices thatindividuals and businesses make and the way thesechoices interact and are influenced by governments.Macroeconomics : The study of the aggregate (or total)effects on the national economy and the global,economy of the choices that individuals, businesses,and governments make.,Macroeconomics looks at the beach while,Microeconomics examines the sand, rocks, and shells.,Entrepreneurship,Capital,Labor,Land, Producing goods and services requires the use ofresources!., ALL resources can be classified as one of thefollowing four factors of production:,The Four Factors of Production,The Factors of Production,What is the Production Possibilities Curve? A production possibilities graph (PPG) is amodel that shows alternative ways that aneconomy can use its scarce resources This model graphically demonstrates scarcity,trade-offs, opportunity costs, and efficiency.4 Key Assumptions,Only two goods can be producedFull employment of resourcesFixed Resources ( Ceteris Paribus )Fixed Technology,A140,B122,C94,D56,E08,f010,BikesComputers,Each point represents a specificcombination of goods that can beproduced given full employment ofresources.NOW GRAPH IT: Put bikes on y-axis andcomputers on x-axis,Production “Possibilities” Table,Bikes,14121086,42,0,0,2,4,6,8,10,A,B,E,Inefficient/Unemployment,(given current resources)GCEfficientD,Production PossibilitiesHow does the PPG graphically demonstrates scarcity,trade-offs, opportunity costs, and efficiency?Impossible/Unattainable,2.The opportunity cost of,3.The opportunity cost of,moving from b to d is 7 Bikes,moving from d to b is 4 Computer,4.What can you say about point G?,Unattainable,1. The opportunity cost of,moving from a to b is 2 Bikes,Example:,Opportunity Cost,递增的成本规律表明生产某种商品越多，机会成本越高。它成立的事实依据是某些资源对不同商品的生产能力不同。拿枪和黄油这两种商品举个例子：假设在一个经济体中已经生产了许多枪，这个经济体中的大部分资源投入了枪支生产，仅有很少的资源（如农民，奶牛，挤奶机等）投入了黄油生产。现在，如果这个社会想要生产更多的枪，一部分生产黄油的资源将会被转移到枪支生产中，这就意味着更多的农民和奶牛将会被枪支工厂雇佣（奶牛将被用于转动可以磨光炮膛的磨粉机）。但是农民和奶牛相对与生产枪支来说更擅于生产黄油，因此当这些资源被转移时，并不会生产出很多枪，相反却有很多黄油“牺牲”了，说明生产的枪支越多，生产它的机会成本越高。,最大产量：小麦 100kg玉米 50kg,最大产量：小麦 70kg玉米 70kg,最大产量：小麦 50kg玉米 100kg,土地一,土地二,土地三,随着玉米的产量增加，生产玉米的机会成本会怎么变化？,eg: 小麦玉米种植,15,Production Possibilities4 Key Assumptions Revisited Only two goods can be produced Full employment of resources Fixed Resources (4 Factors) Fixed TechnologyWhat if there is a change?2 Shifters of the PPC1. Change in resource quantity or quality2. Change in Technology,Production Possibilities, Assumptions:, Full Employment, Fixed Resources and Technology, Movements, Along curve shows opportunity cost, Outward shift illustrates economic growth Inward shift indicates destruction of resources, Producing Capital Goods will lead to greatereconomic growth than producing consumer,goods. ( Butter will lead to more growth than guns),Production Possibilities Graph,CapitalGoods,Consumer Goods,A,B,C,D,E,Points A,B,C, are efficient pts.Point D is underutilizationPoint E is economic growth,May Lead to mostFuture economic growth,Economic Systems, Capitalism=Free Market, Most decisions made by Private businesses, Communism=Command Economy, Most decisions made by the government, Mixed Economy=Features of both Capitalism,and Communism, Decisions made by both the market and,governments,Supply and Demand,Supply and Demand Factors, Demand Changes when :, I ncome changes, R elated Products, complements andsubstitutes, (price or quality change) E xpectations (future price change) C onsumers (more or less added) T astes, Fads, Preferences change,Demand Increase: As Demand Increases,Price and Quantity Increase as well.,Q1,D1Q2,S1D2,PriceP2P1,Quantity,Demand Decrease: As Demand Decreaes, Priceand Quantity decrease as well,S1,Q1,Q2,PriceP1P2,D1D2Quantity,Supply Factors, Supply Changes When:, Input prices change (resources and wages) Government (tariffs, quotas, and subsidies) Number of sellers change, Expectations (about price and product,profitability change), Disasters (weather, strikes, etc.),Q1,Q2,PriceP1P2,Supply Increase: As Supply Increases, QuantityIncreases, but Price Falls.S1,S2,D1Quantity,Supply Decrease: As Supply Decreases, QuantityDecreases, but Price Increases.S2,S1D1Quantity,PriceP2P1,Q1,Q2,Comparative Advantage A nation should specialize in producing goods in whichit has a comparative advantage : ability to produce thegood at a lower opportunity cost.Example:,Spain:France,Cheese2 pounds2 pounds,Wine2 Cases6 Cases,Spain should produce cheese (1C = 1W)France should produce wine (1W = 1/3C),:,Currency Terms, Appreciation: Currency is increasing,in demand (stronger dollar), U.S. Currency will appreciate whenmore foreigners: travel to the U.S., buymore U.S. goods or services, or buythe U.S. dollar to invest in bonds,Currency Terms, Depreciation: Currency is,decreasing in demand (weakerdollar) Being SUPPLIED inexchange for other currency., U.S. Currency will depreciate whenfewer foreigners: travel to the U.S., buyfewer U.S. goods or services, or sellthe U.S. dollar to invest in their ownbonds,Chapter12,Macroeconomic measures of,performance,Circular Flow of Economic,Activity, Households supply resources (land, labor,capital, entrepreneurial ability) to the resourcemarket. Households demand goods andservices from businesses., Businesses demand household resources and,supply goods and services to the product(factor) market.,生产要素市场,生产投入工资、租金和利润 (=GDP),劳动、土地和资本收入 (=GDP),支出 (=GDP)物品和劳务的购买家庭,收入 (=GDP)物品和劳务的销售企业,循环流量图物品与劳务市场,GDP,GDP is the market value of the final goodsand services produced within a nation in ayear.,GDP: What Counts:, Goods Produced but not Sold (I) Goods produced by a foreign,country (Japan) in the U.S. (Honda,Toyota), Government spending on the military Increase in business inventories,GDP: What DOES NOT count:, Intermediate Goods (Tires sold by,Firestone to Ford), Used Goods, Non-Market Activities (Illegal,Underground), Transfer Payments (Social Security) Stock Transactions,Shortcomings,of GDP: Leading to GDP,being understated. Nonmarket activities: (services ofhomemakers) does not count. Leisure: Does not include the value of leisure. Does not include improvements in productquality. Underground economy,GDP: Overstated, Includes damage to the environment, Includes more spending on healthcare-,Americans being unhealthy., Includes money spent to fight crime-more,police officers, more jails, etc,Expenditures Approach,Four components of GDP:1. Consumer Spending,Ex: $5 Little Caesars Pizza,2. Investments -When businesses put money,back into their own business.Ex: Machinery or tools,3. Government Spending,Ex: Bombs or tanks, NOT social security,4. Net Exports - Exports ( X ) Imports ( M ),Ex: Value of 3 Ford Focuses minus 2 Hondas,GDP (Gross Domestic Product):,Expenditure Formula:,Consumption (C) + Business Investment (I) +Government Spending (G) + Net Exports (x),note: Investment Spending (I ) :,New capital machinery purchased by firms;New construction for firms or consumers;,Market value of the change in unsold inventories,GDP (Gross Domestic Product):,Income Formula:,GDP = C + I + G + (X M)= Aggregate Spending= Aggregate Income (Y ),The most recent AP Macroeconomics curriculum focuses onGDP, or total spending , as the nation s measure ofeconomic output. Your study should therefore focus on thecomponentsof GDP,Real GDP Real GDP= Nominal GDP adjusted forinflation. Calculation:,Nominal GDPPrice Index in Hundredths( deflator), Real GDP =Example:,$12,4558 (billions)1.1274 (based on 2000),U.S. 2005 Real GDP=$11.048 Trillion,Real GDP Per Capita, Most commonly used to compare andmeasure each countrys standard of livingand overall economic growth., Real GDP/Nations Population,我国 GDP 及增长情况 1978-2011 年,GDP 总结,GDP 注意点, 一国地理范围内, 一定时期内, 最终产品 （ not intermediate goods ）, 产品和服务 （ not financial transaction ）购房中介费, 市场价值 ( 地下经济，家务劳动不算 ), 生产出来的 （没卖也算，二手交易不算）,Price Index,Price Index is a measure of the price of a good in agivenyear, when compared to the price of that good in a reference(or base) year.,LPI in year t = 100 (Price of a latte in year t)/(Price of a latte in base year),Deflating Nominal GDPTo deflate a nominal value, or adjust for inflation, you do a simple division:Real GDP = 100 (Nominal GDP)/(Price Index)or you can think of it asReal GDP = (Nominal GDP)/(Price Index)(in hundreds)The GDP Deflator,The GDP Deflator=,Nominal GDPReal GDP,100,Business Cycles,The business cycle is the periodic rise and fall in economic activity, and canbe measuredby changes in real GDP ., Expansion : A period where real GDP is growing., Peak : The top of the cycle where an expansion has run its course and is,about to turn down., Contraction : A period where real GDP is falling. A recession is generally,described as two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP. If thecontraction is prolonged or deep enough, it is called a depression ., Trough : The bottom of the cycle where a contraction has stopped and is,about to turn up.,宏观经济的 4 大目标, 1 保证充分就业, 2 保证经济增长, 3 保证国际收支平衡, 4 保证物价稳定,Inflation, Rise in the general level of prices, Reduces the purchasing power of money Measured with the Consumer Price,Index (CPI), Reports the price of a market basket , morethan 300 goods that are typically purchasedby an urban household,我国市场篮子产品类食品烟酒及用品衣着家庭设备用品和维修服务医疗保健和个人用品交通和通讯娱乐、教育、文化用品和服务居住,权重33.2%3.9%9.1%6%10%10.4%14.2%13.2%,Consumer Price Index (CPI), CPI = spending of Market Basket current year,spending of same basket in base year,GDP 平减指数和 CPI 的区别,我国近十年 CPI 变化情况,Calculating Inflation 其中， t 代表其中一年， t-1 代表前一年。对应的是 第 t年的通货膨胀率total cos t this periodCPI 100total cos t base period,CPI t CPI t 1CPI t 1,Inflation rate ,生活案例, 以 2002 年为 base year ，假设该年购买 1 basket 需要,1200 刀, 2003 年同样的 1 basket 需要 1236 刀 那么,1236,1200,CPI 100=103,100,103 100,I n flation Rate 3 %,Types of Inflation, Demand Pull Inflation: too much money,chasing too few goods.”, AD Curve will shift to the right, resulting in a higher,Price Level and greater Output (up til FE), Cost-Push Inflation: Major cause is a supplyshock-OPEC cutting back on oil production, AS Curve will shift to the left resulting in a higher,Price Level and a decrease in Real GDP.,Real and Nominal Terms Real Income = Nominal IncomePrice Index (Hundredths), Nominal Interest Rate= Real Interest Rate + Expected Inflation,Inflation: Winners & Losers, Winners:, Debtors who borrow money that will be repaid with “cheap”,dollars., Those who have anticipate inflation, Losers:, Savers (especially savings accounts), Creditors 债权人 (Banks will be repaid with those “cheap”,dollars, Fixed-Income Recipients (retirees receiving the same monthly,pension),Difficulties with the CPI, Consumers substitute （消费者选择其他产品）, 肯德基吃不起 就去吃 德克士 整不起容就去化妆 读不起哈佛就读 MCU, Goods evolve （产品演化，市场篮子过时） Quality differences （价格提高可能是质量提,高的结果）, Shawn 小时候，买不起手机，手机要 3000 多。现在 3000 多的手机各种炫目。,某种意义上，虽然手机价格没变，但是花的钱更值。同样的，电脑和电视,也可以说明,Review,Unemployment, Calculation: Number of Unemployed,Labor Force,(Multiplied by 100 to put as a %),The Labor Force is the total of employed andunemployed workers.,U.S. unemployment should be about 5%, BLS 将 16 岁以上的成年人分成, 1 就业者 =employed - 前一周大部分时间从事有偿工作, 2 失业者 =unemployed - 暂时被解雇，在寻觅工作，等待新工作,开始 - 一定是积极找工作滴, 3 非劳动力人口 =not in the labor force - 全日制学生，家务,劳动者，退休人员，伤残，壕二代,The labor force is the sum of all individuals 16 years and older who are,either currently employed (E) or unemployed (U). To be counted as one of theunemployed, you must be actively searching for work.,LF = E + U,The unemployment rate is the ratio of unemployed to the total labor force,UR = U/LF,Table 12.6 summarizes the 2002 and 2003 labor market in Smallville,Not In Labor Force, A person who is not looking for work:, Full-time students, Stay at home parents, Discouraged workers: those who have given,up hope of finding a job., Retirees,Types of Unemployment structural unemployment 结构性失业 seasonally unemployed 季节性失业, cyclically unemployed fictionally unemployed,周期性失业摩擦性失业,fictionally unemployed,摩擦性失业, persons who are in between jobs( 他们只是需要匹配的时间 ) 1 currently holds no job, begins to work next month 毕业生找工作（劳动力与市场的匹配过程） 2 quit to have a rest and recharge 个人意外，需要休息调整 3 quit to find a better job 重庆去北京找工作 note ： （ 1 ）人口流动，无须担心 （ 2 ） 收到失业保障政策的影响：欧洲 1 年 -2 年的失业救济金,Structural unemployment 结构性失业, Local economy is structured, or set up, to their,disadvantage., 尽管劳动市场有职位空缺，但人们因为没有所需的技能，结果继续失业，也就是由于劳动力的供给和需求不匹配 /,不均衡而造成的失业。, note ：如人工被机器取代 - 电话语音服务, 传统行业被淘汰：胶卷调试被淘汰， 磁带装 配被,淘汰, 怎么破？政府提供在职培训,Cyclically unemployed,周期性失业, who lose their job during a recession and thecorresponding slowdown in production 劳动总需求不足而引起的短期非自愿 失业， 它表现为实际的总需求低于充分就业的水平，一般出现在经济周期的萧条阶段。 举例：单纯就是找不到工作，就算有 经验、 有能力也没活可干的经济萧条阶段。 特殊情况：中国国企整改导致的大裁 员,Seasonally unemployed 季节性失业, Be able to find work for only a portion of theyear due to the seasonal nature of their jobs., Farmers and construction workers,Natual unemployment, The natural unemployment is unemployment that,does not go away on its own even in the longrun.It is the amount of unemployment that theeconomy normally experiences., 如：, 1 fictionally unemployed 2 structural unemployment,0,2,4,6,8,10,12,1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005,美国的失业： 1960-2007 年,劳动力百分比,Chapter13,Consumption,Saving,Investmen,t,and the Multiplier,Consumption and Saving FunctionsThough not the only factor, the most important element affecting consumption (andsavings) is disposable income . Disposable income (DI) is what consumershave left over to spend or save once they have paid out their net taxes.DI = Gross Income - Net Taxeswhere net taxes= (taxes paid transfers received)With no government transfers or taxation , DI = C + S. Though not all consumerssave part of their income, typical consumers spend the majority of their disposableincome and save whatever is left over. To see the relationship between disposable,income and consumption we create a consumption,function .,We can convert the above consumption schedule to a linear equation or consumptionfunction:,C = 40 + .80(DI),The constant $40 is referred to as autonomous consumption because it does notchange as DI changes.,The slope of the consumption function is .80. This function is plotted in Figure13.1.,The constant $ 40 is referred to as autonomous saving because it does notchange as DI changes.,课本影响消费和储蓄变动的因素，如何变动 p190,The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is the change in consumptioncaused by a change in disposable income. Another way to think about it is theslope of the consumption function.MPC = C/DI = slope of consumption functionUsing Table 13.1, we see that for every additional $100 of DI, C increases by$80 sothe MPC = .80.The marginal propensity to save (MPS) is the change in saving caused by achangein disposable income. Another way to think about it is the slope of thesaving function.MPS = S/DI = slope of saving functionUsing Table 13.1, we can see that for every additional $100 of DI, S increasesby $20 so the MPS = .20.,Determinants of Consumption and Saving, Wealth, Expectations, Household Debt, Taxes and Transfers,Interest Rate-Investment, Expected Rate of Re