昆明学院大学生消费分析计量经济学论文

精品资料精品资料9JWKFFWVGTYMJGX2偏度S14546550,峰度K52026313X3偏度S36271750,峰度K22576743X4偏度S22693600,峰度K12166353X5偏度S39505390,峰度K24388283X6偏度S18666530,峰度K98674653X7偏度S39086380,峰度K25853403Y偏度S19138170,峰度K78800793所以,与标准正态分布S0,K3相比，昆明学院大学生每月的衣着消费X1、学习消费X2、娱乐消费X3、通讯消费X4、日常需品X5、饮食消费X6、情感投资X7、其他消费X8、月总消费Y皆呈现右偏、尖峰分布形态。由上图表还知，JARQUEBERA检验结果，该检验的零假设是样本服从正态分布。检验统计量为341622KSMNJB式中，S和K是样本序列的偏度与峰度M是产生样本序列时用到的估计系数的个数。在零假设下，JB统计量服从X2（2）。根据EVIEWS给出的拒绝零假设。这个概率值是检验的相伴概率简称P值。由上图表知，P皆值皆接近0，表明至少在99的置信水平下拒绝零假设，即序列不服从正态分布。第四章回归分析41问题假设为了问题的简洁明了，现在对变量进行假设。假设月总消费为Y、衣着消费为X1、学习消费为X2、娱乐消费为X3、通讯消费为X4、日常需品为X5、饮食消费为X6、情感投资为X7（单位元）。假设月总消费Y受衣着消费X1、学习消费X2、娱乐消费X3、通讯消费X4、日常需品X5、饮食消费X6、情感投资X7的影响，建立线性方程。显然，月总消费Y的影响因素不只这些。42问题分析因变量月总消费Y的影响因素不只是衣着消费X1、学习消费X2、娱乐消费X3、通讯消费X4、日常需品X5、饮食消费X6、情感投资X7，但是，与多个自变量衣着消费X1、学习消费X2、娱乐消费X3、通讯消费X4、日常需品X5、饮食消费X6、情感投资X7有关。所以，就可以采用多元线性回归进行问题分析。昆明学院大学生每月的衣着消费X1、学习消费X2、娱乐消费X3、通讯消费X4、日常需品X5、饮食消费X6、情感投资X7与月总消费Y的回归分析。设多元线性回归方程的基本形式为设随机变量Y与一般变量X1，X2，X3，X4，X5，X6，X7的线性回归模型为I01I2I3I4I5I6I7IYXXXXBBBB其中，为未知参数，为回归常数，34567，0为回归系数。Y称为被解释向量（因变量），而1234567，是称为解释变量（自变量）。7X，X，X43散点统计图02406801,201,4,601,02,03,04,0YX123X456X7分析从曲线统计图上我们可以大致的来看，每个变量和因变量看不出有何关系。只能看出1234567X,X,，Y与Y的点大致落在250,35000,1000的矩形域中44协方差分析441协方差分析COVX2，X647215940,所以，模型回归的残差序列分布是不对称的，为右偏分布形态。KURTOSIS（峰度）94868313模型回归的残差分布成高瘦状态JB检验的P值为00000小于5的显著水平。因而在5的显著性水平下拒绝了零假设，即序列不服从于正态分布。HETEROSKEDASTICITYTESTWHITEFSTATISTIC1817566PROBF28,17100112OBSRSQUARED4587087PROBCHISQUARE2800180SCALEDEXPLAINEDSS1851219PROBCHISQUARE2800000TESTEQUATIONDEPENDENTVARIABLERESID2METHODLEASTSQUARESDATE12/09/13TIME2249SAMPLE1200INCLUDEDOBSERVATIONS200VARIABLECOEFFICIENTSTDERRORTSTATISTICPROBC32753392362244138653701674X1200076230055131013827408902X1X202205760282492078082304360X1X300185930061095030433507612X1X4011630518923022474908224X1X500826780233507035407307237X1X600655230089176073475604635X1X700863680173123049888406185X2201106730288085038416707013X2X300853440353330024154208094X2X405829240780030074730904559X2X500011140304007000366609971X2X600233090147461015807108746X2X70306960293126104719802965X3200027880063139004415109648X3X402763430377580073188004652X3X504025500344257116932902439X3X601408130093370150811401334X3X700418910184450022711608206X4200671080246271027249807856X4X503533720432412081721104149X4X600104200172854006028309520X4X701551300534330029032707719X5200209840075900027647307825X5X600055140092635005952909526X5X701296970298428043460106644X6200030090015330019629408446X6X700748050097027077097004418X7200906710141319064160105220RSQUARED0229354MEANDEPENDENTVAR6373432ADJUSTEDRSQUARED0103167SDDEPENDENTVAR1881091SEOFREGRESSION1781418AKAIKEINFOCRITERION2254672SUMSQUAREDRESID543E10SCHWARZCRITERION2302498LOGLIKELIHOOD2225672HANNANQUINNCRITER2274027FSTATISTIC1817566DURBINWATSONSTAT1983469PROBFSTATISTIC0011212分析从上图可知，该检验F的值的概率P值为00112和LM的概率P值为00180拒绝原假设，认为模型回归残差序列存在异方差53F检验FSTATISTIC1032209PROBFSTATISTIC0000000分析从表中结果可以看出，PROBFSTATISTIC即相伴概率P值，由F1032209，P值0000000衣着消费X1娱乐消费X3情感投资X7通讯消费X4日常需品X5学习消费X2可以看出昆明学院大学生的基本消费结构。参考文献1概率论与数列统计教程（第二版）茂诗松上海科大出版社19942高等代数M王萼芳石生明高等教育出版社19953计量经济学（第三版）李子奈潘文卿高等教育出版社20104西方经济学（宏观部分）（第五版）高鸿业中国人民大学出版社20105西方经济学（微观部分）（第五版）高鸿业中国人民大学出版社20106数学建模方法及其应用（第二版）（数学建模培训教材）韩中庚高等教育出版社20097数据分析与EVIEWS应用易丹辉中国统计出版社20028统计预测原理杨曾武北京中国人民出版社19909计量经济学分析方法与建模EVIEWS应用与实例高铁梅清华大学出版社200610EVIEWS统计分析与应用（修订版）李嫣怡电子工业出版社201311博弈论姚国庆高等教育出版社2003附录附表1昆明学院大学生消费情况调查调查表每一调查问题每一选项人数分布表选项题号ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQR1121792201116533111101269131910942327271388414911180958515432146331677651358476111313967181151023115621144221161812987932131904548282719101411128134815143549184817321619151588178144291893518947723619204812123412201718321581061323附表2昆明学院大学生消费情况调查调查表每一调查问题每一选项人数分布比率表题号选项ABCDEFGH160539521005580251515550531351356904047455590004525405770160706165835732567582038055515659335905751011557531011220110580901249035465101395022524014013595501455514065240157152704590240851510169575790401772014594517518470385115301910024060615206020859152129053065115续表选项题号IJKLMNOPQR25005130450515955045210附表3昆明学院大学生每月的衣着消费、学习消费、娱乐消费、通讯消费、日常需品、饮食消费、情感投资、其他消费这几方面的消费，及总消费调查数据如下（单位元）衣着消费学习消费娱乐消费通讯消费日常需品饮食消费情感投资总消费15020100805040050100010050100100150300508502010207020500200890050100503050007301001050803040030800505050502030020540250100200501004002001350601005020200037000015010050001050502020100502000440200101001005020007601005070653025045660501001005040006601001050100506000960501001005040006601005008040400067010010010050504001001000300200200150100550400200000300501507000120020010010010050300100100002001001002003001001000010050050503002001300550252502501508507503375305050504040010072010050507050300100770200100200150100300200130030050200120203501001240100100108020300100710001005010045010080020010020010015020010011505050100801503001008801005010050503001501000300200501001504001501550250501001005030010010504001502001502060010173050100501030050620100501008050300073020200100100203050520502010303080030101050501006050600100106010010050401050010010003050304020400506401001005040105001001000100100505010200100710300100200150306002001780100200505020300150870300504002001004002001650200100100100506001501400100102007020350075010010010070203001007902002001001506040020014102002001001506060020016101005010020400100100900100103006050400100107010050300100100600100135030015030060100500200180505050100100300100750100505010050450100950100501001005040020010505050505050300506501005010050504005013001001005010050400509505010010010010030010090010010050505030010085050202003020500100122020050300200100500200185050500405040030010900510010020400300112530010020010020010003002450100501005050200507001005001001003001009501001002001005030010010002020300200400500100164020305010050500200125020103010010030005605005010015030050025018502001004001001004005013502001002001505040015014001005050501002505070050502050702505056050100205050250506205020200100103005083050202001005030010087010010300100503001001060100104001501004005013103005020050504000105030050200100501000100180020010010010010030010011003001002007550400200132530010010010010040010012802501001508015025020012801506050508030080830100502060304002078010020050150505001001200801005050502001006302505020080502001001030100100505010030009001001005050100300090050501005050280068020102001005060010011301001005050100300090030201002005060010012002000200505080001300100100100102050010093010050200100505005011002030100100100400075050501010050200505105512550507020050600100500501003000600502007050200504400502010020030010087025030200100505003001480200200100100100500012000050505005007500010060505000710502010010010030010087050101001001002501007605050100702030050640000200300150010003000100302004001004005013301005030502005001001050300300300300800120300262020010020010050300100115010010010010010010001001700001006030600010905010505020300100630505050505030025575100505010015050050100010010010010010050050110010010010010050500501050100100100100200600100140050301001501006010069020020050010020060050023005010100602070040014401002050803030006801005050100100300070010050050100600509501008050503030010630100505015050300080002005050100001120505050302050303301001001009050400100104050300501040005405050100801003001008801001001001003060010011301008010010030300076050100505010020050600502005050100200507001001001001001003001001000100100100100100300100100020000601503000710503001007020010065050100300100504001001100100100200100504001001100100100200505040010011001001001001001005001001200002001003003000100015050100100504001001150100500501035010076050105050506001009305030505030300505801003080100403501008301001005050504005090010010050507030010087010050100100504001009505020506520270255755050756520280356500010010010060001000502050501501500470803007020200304705020501001001502054030205010050400507401400502002001004001002500202585050104002082815101050454500620200502001005005002001800302050100504501008501005050100252751007501002001006030200508402010050505030020670100100505010050050100010100305035020470200501001006030020011103050305020300205102003004001501509004402840404020202020010360151001002036050555201030100503005062050505050503005065050501030203000480300200300200505002001750400200100200504001001450040308054500605100050100010010050002750010100020010060001910100501010035200550010010010010010020010080020020010010030020010012502002001001003002001001250200501001001004001001050附表4昆明学院大学生消费调查问卷首先，请原谅占用了您一些私人时间。大学生作为一个特殊的消费群体正到越来越多的关注，为了进一步了解在校大学生的消费心理，熟悉大学生的消费结构，特此调查，希望您能认真填写问卷，谢谢您的合作1性别A女B男2所在院系A经济学院B外国语学院C城乡建设与工程管理学院D物理科学与技术系E社会管理学院F音乐学院G农学院H化学科学与技术系I教师教育学院J美术与艺术设计学院K医学院L生命科学与技术系M体育学院N信息技术学院O旅游学院P人文学院Q自动控制与机械工程学院R数学系3年级A大一B大二C大三D大四4父母职业A农民B工人C公司职员、事业单位D管理人员E商人F失业G其他_来自于A农村B城镇C城市6是否独生子女A是B否7您是否正在谈恋爱A是B否8花父母的钱，心中有何想法（）A理所当然B心有愧疚但无