惠誉+中国的重新开放对全球经济意味着什么

WhatChina'sReopeningMeansfor

theGlobalEconomy

BrianCoulton–ManagingDirector,ChiefEconomist

AndrewFennell–SeniorDirector,APACSovereignRatings

09February2023

Today’sSpeakers:

2

BrianCoulton

ChiefEconomist

FitchRatings

Brian.coulton@

AndrewFennell

SeniorDirector

APACSovereignRatings

Andrew.fennell@

HelenWong

SeniorDirector

HeadofAPACInvestorDevelopment

Helen.wong@

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

DynamicZeroCovid-19HeavilyConstrainedConsumptionin2022

China-ContributionstoRealGDPGrowth

China-ConsumerConfidenceandRetailSales

RetailSales%y/y(rhs)

InvestmentConsumptionNetTrade

GDP

(Index)ConsumerConfidence(%)(%,pp)

1304012

1203010

8

11020

6

10010

4

900

2

80-100

70-20-2

Jan12Jan14Jan16Jan18Jan20Jan22

Source:FitchRatings,NBS

Source:FitchRatings,NBS,Haver

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

HighFrequencyIndicatorsAreNowImprovingQuiteQuickly

China–Non-ManufacturingPMISurvey

(Balance)

60

China-ChineseNewYearDomesticTravel

(mtrips)

400

300

50

200

40

100

0

Jan20

Jan21

Jan22

Jan23

30

Jan19

Source:FitchRatings,NBS

Source:FitchRatings,MinistryofCultureandTourism

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023f

2024f

ChinaRealGDP-AnnualGrowth

February2023Update

December2022GEO

(%)

10

8

6

120

10

110

0

5.04.1

GDPBetterthanExpectedin4Q22and2023GrowthRevisedUpto5%

China-RealGDPQuarterlyLevelsandGrowthRates

(1Q19=100)

130

Forecast

20

Growth,y/y(%,rhs)

Level

4

2

-10

100

0

90

-20

Q12019Q12020Q12021Q12022Q12023

Source:FitchRatings,NBS,Haver

Source:FitchRatings,NBS,Haver

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

-40

ButHousingSlumpContinuestoWeighHeavilyonDomesticDemand

China-HousingStartsandSales

China–HousingConstructionUnderway

Housingsalesvolume

(%y/y)

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

(%yoy)

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

Housingstartsvolume

-60

202020212022

Source:FitchRatings,NBS,Haver

Source:FitchRatings,NBS,Haver

18

16

14

12

10

8

CreditGrowthSlowedinLate2022

China-CreditGrowth

Fitch-AdjustedTSF

(%y/y)TotalSocialFinancing

Jan17Jan18Jan19Jan20Jan21Jan22

andCreditImpulseFellBack

China-CreditImpulse

(%)

24

18

12

6

0

-6

AnnualChangeinFlowofCreditas%GDP

Q1/2006Q1/2009Q1/2012Q1/2015Q1/2018Q1/2021

Source:FitchRatings,NBS,PBOC

Source:FitchRatings

ExportsNowSlowingSharplyAfterSupportingGrowthinLast2Years

ChinaExportsandUSConsumerSpendingonGoodsChina-MerchandiseExports

(%)

USGoodsConsumption(Real)ChinaExportVolumes(USDbn)%y/y(rhs)USDbn

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

Jan11Jan13Jan15Jan17Jan19Jan21

Jan15Jan16Jan17Jan18Jan19Jan20Jan21Jan22

Source:FitchRatings,NBS,BEA

Source:FitchRatings,NBS,Haver

1.1

0.9

ChinaContributingOver1/3rdofAnnualWorldGrowthPre-Pandemic

ChinaandRestofWorldContributiontoWorldGrowth

(%,pp)RestofWorldWorldGDP(%)

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

DirectImpactofChinaForecastRevisiononGlobalGrowth

China

(pp)

December2022GEO

February2023Update

2.00

1.75

1.50

1.25

1.00

0.75

0.50

0.25

0.00

20192020202120222023F

2000200420082012201620202024F

Source:FitchRatings

Source:FitchRatingsDecember2022GlobalEconomicOutlook

ChinaGrowthTypicallyHasBigImpactonGlobalCommodityDemand

China’sShareofWorldMerchandiseTradeChinaMerchandiseTradebyTypeofProduct

PrimaryExportsPrimaryImports

ImportsExports

(%,3mma)

16

(USDbn)

3,500

ManufacturedExportsManufacturedImports

14

3,000

12

2,500

10

8

6

4

2

0

Jan/1991

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

199619992002200520082011201420172020

Jan/2001Jan/2011Jan/2021

Source:FitchRatings,IMFDOTS

Source:FitchRatings,ChinaCustoms

Korea

Australia

Brazil

Indonesia

Switzerland

Russia

Japan

SouthAfrica

Germany

Eurozone

Canada

France

Italy

UK

India

Spain

Mexico

US

Poland

Turkey

25

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

20

15

10

5

ButThisConsumption-LedRecoveryWillbeLessImportIntensive

ImportIntensityofChinaDemand–IMFEstimates

(%)

MerchandiseExportstoChinaas%Exporters’GDP

(%)

0

0

PrivateInvestmentGovernmentExports

ConsumptionConsumption

Source:FitchRatings,IMFWP/16/106

Source:FitchRatings,IMFDOTS

PropertySectorWeaknessWeighingonChina’sIron&SteelDemand

WorldIronOrePriceandChinaHousingSales

ChinaIndustrialProduction–SteelandSteelProducts

Steel

(%y/y)

140

IronOrePriceChinaHousingSales

(%y/y)SteelProducts

50

120

100

80

25

60

40

20

0

0

-20

-40

-25

-60

2012

20142016201820202022

1998200220062010201420182022

Source:FitchRatings,NBS

Source:FitchRatings,IMF,NYMEX

0.75

15

0.50

10

0.25

5

0.00

0-0.25

196519751985199520052015199620012006201120162021

China’sOilDemandExpectedtoRecoverAfterUnusualFallin2022

China’sShareofGlobalOilandGasEnergyConsumptionChina-AnnualChangeinOilConsumption(EIAForecasts)

OilNaturalgas

(%)

20

(mbd)

1.00

Source:FitchRatings,BP

Source:FitchRatings,EIA

FallinChinaLNGImportsHelpedEUReplaceLostRussianGasin2022

EUNaturalGasSupplybySource

LiquifiedNaturalGasImportstoEUandChina

RussiaPipelineImportsLNGImports

(bcm)

(bcm)

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

China

EU

OtherPipelineImports

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

DomesticProduction

2022

2021

2022

2021

Source:FitchRatings,BP,Eurostat,ENTSOG

Source:FitchRatings,Bloomberg

MobilityIndicatorsHaveReboundedStronglySinceLate2022

TrafficCongestionIndex

50cities,7-daymovingaverage

2020202120222023

SubwayPassengerVolumes

10cities,7-daymovingaggregate,millionpersons

2020202120222023

(personsmn)

(Index)

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2.01.91.81.71.61.51.41.31.21.1

1.0

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Source:Wind,FItchRatings

Source:Wind,FItchRatings

16

HouseholdBankDepositSurgePartlyReflectsShiftinAssetAllocation

HouseholdBankDeposits

Monthlyincreaseytd

(CNYbn)

ConsumptionPreferencesSurvey

%total

MoreSavingsDepositsMoreInvestmentMoreConsumption

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Dec17Dec18Dec19Dec20Dec21Dec22

DecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunSepDec

19202020202121212122222222

Source:CEIC,PBOC

Source:FitchRatings,CEIC

17

ConsolidatedBudgetDeficitHasWidenedConsiderablySince2018

PublicFinanceBudget

Execution

12mactual(%ofannualbudget)

Fitch-Consolidated

BudgetBalance

%GDP

110

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

94

92

RevenueExpenditure

90

20182019202020212022

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

0

20152016201720182019202020212022f2023f

De-factoconsolidationofChina'sfourofficialpublicbudgets

Source:CEIC,GovernmentWorkReports,FitchRatings

Note:UnconsolidatedPublicFinanceBudget;excludestransfers&carryovers

Source:FitchRatings,CEIC

18

ResidentialPropertySalesandStartsRemainSubdued

ResidentialFloorSpaceSold

millionsq.m.

ResidentialStarts

'000sq.m.

2019202020212022

2019202020212022

250

200

150

100

50

250

200

150

100

50

Jan/FebAprJunAugOctDec

Jan/FebAprJunAugOctDec

Source: