of population by age and sex 1971 to 1996 按年龄和性别评价人口1971到课件

An Evaluation of the Age and Sex Data from the Census Population of Canada, Provinces and Territories, 1971 to 2001 BY Shirley Loh, Ravi Verma and Margaret Michalowski Prepared for presentation at the Canadian Population Society Annual Meetings, Winnipeg, Manitoba, June 2004. This paper reports the results of research and analysis undertaken by Demography Division, Statistics Canada staff. It reflects the opinions of the authors and, not necessarily, those of Statistics Canada and is released to inform and to encourage discussion. Outline of Presentation Objectives & Review of literature Methodology: Pyramid, Digit Preference Index, Age-Sex Accuracy index Source of Data Results Conclusion and Discussion Objectives and Review of literature Objectives: To investigate if age heaping is present in single year age data on population To examine the overall accuracy of population data by age and sex To compare the level of accuracy of age-sex population with some countries Review of Literature: Norland, Litven and Cottrell (1977) Bourbeau and Lebel (2000) Poston and associates (2003) Methodology Graphical presentation of population by age and sex Computing Myers indices for detecting digit preference in single year age reporting Computing age-sex accuracy index (U.N. Method) based on 5 year age group Myers Index (unadjusted) U.N. Method for Age-Sex Accuracy (Unadjusted, Canada, 1971) Criteria of the U.N. INDEX Under 20 Accurate 20 to 40 Inaccurate Over 40 Highly Inaccurate Source of Data Census population by age and sex, adjusted for net census undercount, 1971- 2001 Results: Myers Index of Age Heaping by Sex, Unadjusted Census Population, Canada (Age Interval 20-69) Results (contd): Myers Index of Age Heaping, Canada, Provinces and Territories 1971197619811986199119962001 Age Interval: 20-69 Canada1.71.21.41.61.61.51.5 Newfoundland1.31.31.21.41.31.21.2 Prince Edward Island1.82.31.42.31.51.71.2 Nova Scotia1.61.71.52.01.81.51.7 New Brunswick1.61.71.41.71.71.41.6 Quebec1.71.01.41.31.61.31.6 Ontario1.91.21.41.61.71.61.5 Manitoba2.01.51.91.72.01.61.7 Saskatchewan1.81.61.91.82.11.51.8 Alberta1.61.21.31.51.21.41.2 British Columbia1.91.41.51.91.61.91.3 Yukon2.21.21.61.01.51.11.1 Northwest Territories1.81.31.11.00.91.20.8 Results (contd): United Nations Age-sex Accuracy Index, Canada, Provinces and Territories 1971197619811986199119962001 Canada16182121201919 N.L.19192223222021 P. E. I.25262722232526 N. S.20192221222022 N. B.19212223222121 Que.17192123212123 Ont.20212423232121 Man.17181920201920 Sask.16161718192021 Alta.19162120191918 B. C.20212322212020 Yukon132866158505150 N. W. T.53503943385557 : Accurate : Inaccurate : Highly Inaccurate Limitations of the UN Age-sex Accuracy Index (Siegel and Swanson, 2004) Central age group not included in the calculation of the age ratio Expected decline in sex ratio with increasing age not considered Considerable weight is given to the sex ratio component in the formula Results (contd): Revised Age-Sex Accuracy Index, Canada, Provinces and Territories 1971197619811986199119962001 Canada14151818171616 N.L.16161920191818 P. E. I.21222319202222 N. S.17161918191719 N. B.16171920191818 Que.14161819181819 Ont.17182020191818 Man.14151617171617 Sask.13131415161718 Alta.16131717161616 B. C.17182019181717 Yukon122805652454644 N. W. T.47453539344952 : Accurate : Inaccurate : Highly Inaccurate Results (contd): Age-Sex Accuracy Index for Canada in 2001 and for 42 Countries of the World in 2000 * based on unadjusted population Conclusion Myers Indices: Single Year Age Data No preference or avoidance of any year of birth Age-sex Accuracy Indices: Five Year Age Group Data Accurate age-sex population data for Canada and all provinces except Prince Edward Island, Yukon and Northwest Territories The quality of Canadian age-sex population data is highly comparable to Sweden and Finland Unadjusted Census Population Myers indices and age-sex accuracy indices slightly higher than those based on adjusted census