SmallBusinessScoring小企业评分.ppt

Small Business Scoring 小企业评分 September, 2004 2004年9月 Cheryl St John 2Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved.2Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Agenda议程 uProject scope u项目范围 uSmall business pooled models u小企业集合模型 uPreliminary results in Latin America u在拉丁美洲的初步成效 uNext Steps u后续步骤 3Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved.3Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Agenda议程 uProject scope u项目范围 uSmall business pooled models u小企业集合模型 uPreliminary results in Latin America u在拉丁美洲的初步成效 uNext Steps u后续步骤 4Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Small business in Latin America 拉丁美洲的小企业 uEconomic growth and social development by being the leading source of employment u作为最重要的就业渠道促进经济增长和社会发展 uIn Colombia the small business sector employs 63% of work force u在哥伦比亚小企业雇佣了63的劳动力 uIn Mexico 78% of work force u在墨西哥小企业雇佣了78的劳动力 uMajority of production is for internal consumption u大部分产品供国内消费 uColombia 25% internal production u哥伦比亚25国内产品 uMexico 68% internal production u墨西哥68国内产品 uCredit availability plays a fundamental role for survival of the small business u信用的可得性对小企业的生存起着基础性的作用 uSmall businesses have limited access to funding and consequently to the newest technology u小企业融资渠道受到限制从而导致最新技术的使用受到限制 5Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Small business in Latin America 拉丁美洲的小企业 uInvestigate deficiencies in small business credit u小企业信用的调查研究不足 uNo business plan 没有商业计划 uLegal constitution 法律章程 uAccess to credit 得到信用的途径 uSources of credit u信用的来源 uOwn resources 自己的财力 u reinvestment of revenues and capital from partners u收入再投资及从股东处取得的资本 uCredit from providers 从供应商处得到的信用 u short term credit, high interest rates and guarantee u短期信用，高利率和保证 uFamily and friends 亲属和朋友 uBank medium to long credit term. u一小部分的小企业能取得这种中期到长期的信用形式 6Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Deficiencies in the small business lending 小企业借款缺乏 uIdentify improvements in the banking and lending industry to allow small businesses growth and development u认识银行业和贷款企业在允许小企业成长和发展中的进步 uManage overall portfolio risk u控制总业务量风险 uStreamline operations for increased cost efficiencies u优化操作以增进成本效率 uIncrease number of profitable relationships u增加可获利的关系 uIdentify predictive data elements to analyze the credit risk u识别有预测性的数据要素来分析信用风险 7Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. How scoring technology can help the lenders? 评分技术是怎样帮助贷款人的呢？ uReduces cost by increasing efficiency and speed u通过增加效率和速度来减少成本 uMake consistent ranking of risk and objective decisions u建立一致的风险评分等级和客观决策 uAccurate risk prediction u精确的风险预测 uMajority of risk identified at origination! u大多数的风险在产生时就会被识别出来！ uCompetitive edge u竞争优势 uFaster response times u更快的反应时期 uBetter risk assessment u更好的风险估计 8Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved.8Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Agenda议程 uProject scope u项目范围 uSmall business pooled models u小企业集合模型 uPreliminary results in Latin America u在拉丁美洲的初步成效 uNext Steps u后续步骤 9Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Fair Isaac expertise with financial institutions Fair Isaac 为金融机构提供专门技术 10Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Small business definition- United States 小企业的定义美国 uAnnual Sales of up to $5 million u年销售额最高达到5百万美元 uCredit of up to $250,000 u信用最高达到25万美元 uTypes of Small Businesses: u小企业的类型： uSole Proprietors u个体所有者 uPartnerships u合伙企业 uCorporations u公司 11Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. The beginning of Small Business Scoring Service (SBSS) in the United States 小企业评分机构在美国的起步 uFair Isaac partners with Robert Morris Associates (RMA) uFair Isaac 与Robert Morris Associates (RMA) 成为合伙企业 u17 banks each contribute 100 goods, 100 bads, 100 declines u17家银行每一家都提供100家好的，100家坏的，100家信用下降的小企业的资料 uPrecoding sheets filled out by hand u手工填写预先编好的表格 uPaper credit bureau reports u纸质的信用局报告 uFair Isaac data entry staff creates electronic database uFair Isaac 的数据输入人员创建了电子数据库 u1995 - Fair Isaac SBSS releases the first empirically derived commercial scorecards u1995年，Fair Issac 小企业评分机构发布了首批完全来自于实际数据的商业记分卡 12Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Small Business Pooled Models improvements 小企业集合模型的进步 uOver 250,000 small businesses contributed by 25 banks u25家银行提供的25万多家小企业信息 uData extracted electronically from application processing and master billing file systems 100% availability of consumer bureau information u从申请处理和主帐单文件系统中电子化提取的数据 ，消费信用局信息100可得 uBusiness data provides increase in predictive power u商业数据提高了预测力 uApplication 申请 uBusiness reports 商业报告 uFinancial statements 财务报表 u2001 - Fair Isaac releases second generation of commercial scorecards u2001年，Fair Isaac 发布了第二代商业记分卡 uCurrently building the New Small Business Pooled Models u现在正在建立新的小企业集合模型 13Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Small business scoring pooled models in Asia 亚洲的小企业评分集合模型 uPooled Models in Japan u日本的集合模型 uOver 3,500 small businesses contributed by 13 banks u13家银行提供的3500多家小企业信息 uData transferred from application processing and master billing file systems and availability of consumer bureau information u从申请处理和主帐单文件系统中传出的数据及消费信用局信息的可得性 uBusiness data provides increase in predictive power u商业数据提高了预测力 uApplication 申请 uBusiness reports 商业报告 uFinancial statements 财务报表 uCurrently building pooled models in China u现在正在中国建立集合模型 14Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved.14Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Agenda议程 uProject scope u方案范围 uFair Isaac experience uFair Isaac的经验 uSmall business pooled models u小企业集合模型 uPreliminary results in Latin America u拉丁美洲的初步成效 uNext Steps u后续步骤 15Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Small business definition - Latin America 小企业的定义拉丁美洲 COLOMBIA 哥伦比亚 uNumber of Employees up to 200 u雇员人数最高达到200 uAnnual Sales of up to $1 million u年销售额最高达到1百万美元 uCredit of up to $200,000 u信用最高达到20万美元 uTypes of Small Businesses: u小企业的类型： uSole Proprietors 个体经营者 uPartnerships 合伙企业 uCorporations 公司 MEXICO 墨西哥 uNumber of Employees up to 100 u雇员人数最高达到100 uAnnual Sales of up to $500,000 u年销售额最高达到50万美元 uCredit of up to $200,000 u信用最高达到20万美元 uTypes of Small Businesses: u小企业的类型： uSole Proprietors 个体经营者 uPartnerships 合伙企业 uCorporations 公司 There is no consistent definition within lenders in Latin America. 在拉丁美洲贷款人对小企业没有一致的定义 16Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Distribution by business activity 经济活动分布 COLOMBIA 哥伦比亚MEXICO 墨西哥 Wholesale,批发业 48% Construction,建筑业 9% Other,其它4% Transportation,运输业 15% Fin & Ins,金融保险业 1% Services,服务业 12% Restaurants,餐饮业 3% Manufactures,制造业 8% Wholesale,批发业 30% Construction, 建筑业 16% Other,其它 7% Transportation,运输业 8% Fin & Ins,金融保险业 11% Services,服务业 8% Restaurants,餐饮业 2% Manufactures,制造业 18% 17Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Acceptance and booked rates 接受率和登记率 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Colombia 哥伦比亚Mexico 墨西哥 Acceptance Rate 接受率 Booked Rate 登记率 18Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Distribution of delinquencies 违约的分布 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Colombia 哥伦比亚Mexico 墨西哥 One Cycle 一个周期 Two Cycles 两个周期 Written Off 冲销 19Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Application processing time 处理申请的时间 D A Y S 天 数 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Colombia 哥伦比亚Mexico 墨西哥 20Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved.20Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Agenda议程 uProject scope u项目范围 uFair Isaac experience uFair Isaac 的实践经验 uSmall business pooled models u小企业集合模型 uPreliminary results in Latin America u在拉丁美洲的初步成效 uNext Steps u后续步骤 21Copyright 2003 Fair Isaac Corporation. All rights reserved. Pooled data development sampling 集合数据发展抽样 uA random representative portion of accounts with known payment behavior plus declined accounts u一部分随机的有代表性的已知支付行为的帐户加上信用下降的帐户 uData provided by all institutions participating in the pool u所有参与这个集合的机构所提供的数据 uPredictiv