2012：IRON_ORE_VOLUMES_CONTINUE_TO_FLOW-2012-10-18.ppt

martin yu,1,15 october 2012 fixed income research /researchandanalytics china commodity trade report october 2012: iron ore volumes continue to flow commodities research,research analysts ric deverell +44 20 7883 2523 +44 20 7883 2150 tom kendall +44 20 7883 2432 marcus garvey +44 20 7883 4787 exhibit 1: chinese crude oil imports millions of tonnes, seasonally adjusted,crude oil and soybean imports also recover the first tranche of chinese trade data for september was released over the weekend. we note that chinas iron ore imports maintained the strength exhibited in august, while oil and soybean imports bounced back from the previous months decline. oil imports, however, remain below early 2012 levels. in summary, we note that1: crude oil imports recovered from an 18.5% mom fall in august, bouncing back with a 16.2% mom increase (exhibit 1). nevertheless, they failed to regain the strength of early 2012. iron ore imports were again strong, increasing by 0.4% mom from augusts already high level (exhibit 2). copper and copper product imports rose by 2.3% mom in september, maintaining their recent gradual uptick. soybean imports surged back with a 31.1% mom increase in september, offsetting augusts 21.9% mom decline, as lower prices encouraged buying. exhibit 2: chinese iron ore & concentrate imports millions of tonnes, seasonally adjusted,26 24 22,imports,bouncing back from augusts dip, but not to early 2012 levels,80 70,imports,back-to -back strength in august and september,20 18,60 50,16 40 14,12 10,30 20,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china general customs administration, credit suisse,source: ceic, china general customs administration, credit suisse,all discussion refers to seasonally adjusted data unless otherwise stated. analyst certifications and important disclosures are in the disclosure appendix. for other important disclosures, please refer to .,credit suisse securities research & analytics,beyond information client-driven solutions, insights, and access,0,0,0,0,2,15 october 2012 exhibit 3: summary of trade figures units as indicated below,raw figures,year on year change,seasonally adjusted,year to date*,coal,units,july,august,september,july,august,september,july,august,september,2012,2011,% diff,imports,total coal coking coal thermal coal,million tons million tons million tons,24.2700 3.9254 16.2899,20.4400 2.5697 14.7133,20.4400 2.5697 14.7133,38.4% -3.2% 20.8%,23.2% -21.8% 10.6%,6.9% -34.0% -3.4%,22.2293 3.5561 15.4270,19.6791 2.5817 14.5246,19.6791 2.5817 14.5246,184.7200 34.1888 116.7284,124.0100 30.3807 93.6250,49.0% 12.5% 24.7%,exports,total coal iron ore and steel,million tons units,0.5000 july,0.6500 august,0.6500 september,-45.1% july,-48.0% august,-46.3% september,0.4987 july,0.6139 august,0.6139 september,6.9300 2012,12.1200 2011,-42.8% % diff,imports,iron ore and concentrates steel products steel scrap,million tons million tons million tons,57.8700 1.1600 0.4100,62.4500 1.2000 0.3900,65.0100 1.2000 0.3900,6.1% -6.5% -47.4%,5.7% -11.1% -25.0%,7.3% -9.8% -44.3%,58.9223 1.0950 0.3793,63.7452 1.1352 0.3670,63.9754 1.1258 0.3670,552.3400 10.5200 3.6000,508.7400 11.9600 4.7800,8.6% -12.0% -24.7%,exports,iron ore and concentrates steel products energy,million tons million tons units,0.0000 4.3200 july,0.0000 4.2400 august,0.0000 5.1500 september,-100.0% -2.7% july,-99.8% 1.2% august,0.0% 22.3% september,0.0000 3.6745 july,0.0000 3.7355 august,0.0000 4.7687 september,0.0043 40.9800 2012,0.0029 37.1700 2011,49.8% 10.3% % diff,imports,crude oil petroleum refined petroleum products middle distillates liquified natural gas,million tons million tons million tons million tons,21.8300 3.0900 0.5455 1.3300,18.4000 2.2400 0.4342 1.0900,20.0800 3.4200 0.4342 0.0000,12.4% 0.3% 16.9% 12.7%,-12.5% -34.3% -44.6% 3.8%,-1.8% 23.5% -39.6% 0.0%,22.5404 2.7181 0.4764 1.1689,18.3714 2.3653 0.3959 0.9242,21.3509 3.8830 0.3959 0.0000,200.3700 28.9600 3.9780 9.0900,187.1300 30.3000 5.6594 7.4000,7.1% -4.4% -29.7% 22.8%,exports,crude oil petroleum refined petroleum products middle distillates scrap,million tons million tons million tons units,0.2100 1.7700 0.7705 july,0.1900 2.1100 0.7950 august,0.2000 2.0600 0.7950 september,5.0% -22.4% 5.4% july,58.3% -2.8% 1.2% august,-39.4% -8.0% 22.9% september,0.2555 1.5894 0.7616 july,0.1801 2.1255 0.8017 august,0.0000 2.1708 0.8017 september,1.8900 17.8100 5.7555 2012,1.9600 19.8200 6.7025 2011,-3.6% -10.1% -14.1% % diff,imports,metal scrap copper scrap aluminum scrap base metals,metric tons metric tons metric tons units,1,070,000 430,000 230,000 july,1,080,000 440,000 250,000 august,1,080,000 440,000 250,000 september,-25.7% 0.0% 4.5% july,-1.8% 15.8% 25.0% august,-19.4% 4.8% 13.6% september,918,912 405,169 196,586 july,1,030,015 399,148 220,774 august,1,030,015 399,148 220,774 september,8,420,000 3,090,000 1,720,000 2012,10,130,000 3,430,000 1,890,000 2011,-16.9% -9.9% -9.0% % diff,imports,copper & copper products copper & alloys copper ore & concentrates aluminium & al products aluminium & alloys nickel & alloys zinc & alloys lead & alloys tin & alloys,metric tons metric tons metric tons metric tons metric tons metric tons metric tons metric tons metric tons,366,548 310,078 570,000 97,651 52,895 13,672 48,201 3,100 3,215,355,856 299,298 690,000 117,513 73,576 12,183 207 3,786 3,083,394,837 299,298 690,000 102,320 73,576 12,183 207 3,786 3,083,19.5% 28.7% 26.7% 38.7% 214.4% -28.0% 60.5% -18.0% 271.7%,4.5% 10.7% 1.5% 65.6% 227.5% -27.9% -99.5% 2.9% 92.1%,3.8% -4.7% 23.2% 54.6% 264.9% -38.2% -99.5% -25.4% -18.7%,377,712 327,833 611,032 91,887 54,523 11,866 38,608 2,739 3,028,381,235 338,354 717,493 112,808 63,135 12,814 210 4,638 3,364,390,059 338,354 717,493 107,146 63,135 12,814 210 4,638 3,364,3,619,178 2,770,963 4,640,000 929,679 480,380 97,260 330,363 32,096 20,486,2,728,921 2,126,081 4,650,000 667,868 223,181 154,903 353,278 37,760 11,787,32.6% 30.3% -0.2% 39.2% 115.2% -37.2% -6.5% -15.0% 73.8%,exports,copper & copper products,metric tons,59,065,43,143,15.3%,3.2%,0.0%,51,611,39,605,543,833,499,547,8.9%,copper & alloys aluminium & products aluminium & alloys nickel & alloys zinc & alloys lead & alloys tin & alloys agriculture,metric tons metric tons metric tons metric tons metric tons metric tons metric tons units,12,527 290,000 54,051 4,093 300 444 178 july,1,717 280,000 44,304 2,285 207 82 0 august,1,717 44,304 2,285 207 82 0 september,227.0% -25.6% -34.1% 64.0% -85.4% -28.4% n/a july,266.1% -17.6% -28.8% -17.2% -94.6% -86.7% 0.0% august,-34.2% 0.0% -27.0% -2.1% -94.0% -1.2% 0.0% september,7,890 253,299 41,640 3,592 338 708 1,731 july,1,915 252,724 40,333 2,198 206 147 0 august,1,915 40,333 2,198 206 147 0 september,206,907 2,330,000 440,483 21,538 6,924 2,239 1,199 2012,153,982 2,600,000 553,636 28,271 44,832 11,309 974 2011,34.4% -10.4% -20.4% -23.8% -84.6% -80.2% 23.1% % diff,imports,corn wheat soybean rice sugar cotton,thousand tons thousand tons thousand tons thousand tons thousand tons thousand tons,721.60 252.65 5,870.00 226.31 400.00 410.00,598.98 252.15 4,420.00 241.12 580.00 310.00,598.98 252.15 4,420.00 0.00 0.00 310.00,318.0% 132.9% 9.7% 315.2% 53.8% 156.3%,144.9% 96.0% -2.0% 312.8% 38.1% 47.6%,230.5% 41.9% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.0%,628.04 199.51 5,425.27 493.72 250.17 455.13,272.69 364.63 4,236.33 506.56 440.86 341.82,272.69 364.63 4,236.33 0.00 0.00 341.82,3,726.00 2,698.45 39,340.00 1,653.12 2,410.00 3,790.00,634.52 970.33 37,700.00 475.98 1,200.00 1,940.00,487.2% 178.1% 4.4% 247.3% 100.8% 95.4%,exports,corn wheat soybean rice sugar cotton,thousand tons thousand tons thousand tons thousand tons thousand tons thousand tons,4.31 18.93 20.00 11.67 3.76 1.65,4.98 26.49 40.00 10.73 2.52 1.39,4.98 26.49 40.00 16.91 3.42 1.39,-57.0% 6.3% 100.0% -3.6% -16.5% 101.6%,-62.5% -13.9% 300.0% -49.2% -34.7% 26.6%,-51.2% -32.9% 300.0% -38.8% -15.1% 204.6%,4.41 18.94 27.68 16.08 3.83 2.31,3.87 24.82 81.06 18.03 2.56 0.87,3.87 24.82 81.06 23.51 3.80 0.87,39.78 173.49 200.00 237.32 36.93 11.60,90.69 225.26 160.00 310.38 48.06 25.45,-56.1% -23.0% 25.0% -23.5% -23.2% -54.4%,*year to date figures equate months with latest data to make both years comparable, based on raw figures. source: the bloomberg professional service, ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse china commodity trade report october 2012: iron ore volumes continue to flow,3,15 october 2012 china commodity trade report commodities research coal,total coal (millions of tonnes),total coal (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted,30,exports,impor ts,net imports,35,exports,impor ts,net imports,25 20,30 25,20 15 15 10 10,5 0 -5,5 0 -5,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china customs general administration coking coal (millions of tonnes),source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse coking coal (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted,7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0,impor ts,7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0,impor ts,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: gtis thermal coal (millions of tonnes),source: gtis, credit suisse thermal coal (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted,18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0,impor ts,20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0,impor ts,10.0,8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0,8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: gtis china commodity trade report october 2012: iron ore volumes continue to flow,source: gtis, credit suisse,4,15 october 2012 china commodity trade report commodities research iron ore and steel,iron ore and concentrates (millions of tonnes),iron ore and concentrates (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted,80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0,impor ts,80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0,impor ts,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china customs general administration steel products (millions of tonnes),source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse steel products (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted,8.0,exports,impor ts,net imports,8.0,exports,impor ts,net imports,6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0,6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china customs general administration ferrous waste & scrap (millions of tonnes),source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse ferrous waste & scrap (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted,2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0,impor ts,2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0,impor ts,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china customs general administration china commodity trade report october 2012: iron ore volumes continue to flow,source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse,5,15 october 2012 china commodity trade report commodities research crude and refined petroleum,crude oil petroleum (millions of tonnes),crude oil petroleum (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted,30,exports,impor ts,25,exports,impor ts,25,20,20 15 15 10 10,5 0,5 0,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china customs general administration refined petroleum products (millions of tonnes),source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse refined petroleum products (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted,5.0,exports,impor ts,5.0,exports,impor ts,4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0,4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china customs general administration crude oil petroleum (millions of tonnes) net imports,source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse refined petroleum products (millions of tonnes) net imports,27,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,3.5,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 9,3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0,j,f,m,a,m,j,j,a,s,o,n,d,j,f,m,a,m,j,j,a,s,o,n,d,source: ceic, china customs general administration china commodity trade report october 2012: iron ore volumes continue to flow,source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse,6,15 october 2012 china commodity trade report commodities research middle distillates and lng,middle distillates (millions of tonnes),middle distillates (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted,2.0,exports,impor ts,2.0,exports,impor ts,1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0,1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china customs general administration liquefied natural gas (millions of tonnes),source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse liquefied natural gas (millions of tonnes) seasonally adjusted,1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0,impor ts,1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0,impor ts,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse middle distillates (millions of tonnes) net imports,source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse liquefied natural gas (millions of tonnes) net imports,1.5,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,1.6,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,1.4 1.0 1.2,0.5 0.0,1 0.8 0.6,0.4 -0.5 0.2,-1.0,0,j,f,m,a,m,j,j,a,s,o,n,d,j,f,m,a,m,j,j,a,s,o,n,d,source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse china commodity trade report october 2012: iron ore volumes continue to flow,source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse,7,15 october 2012 china commodity trade report commodities research scrap,total metal scrap (metric tonnes),total metal scrap (metric tonnes) seasonally adjusted,2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0,impor ts,2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0,impor ts,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china customs general administration copper scrap (metric tonnes),source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse copper scrap (metric tonnes) seasonally adjusted,700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0,impor ts,700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0,impor ts,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china customs general administration aluminum scrap (metric tonnes),source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse aluminum scrap (metric tonnes) seasonally adjusted,400,000 350,000 300,000,impor ts,350,000 300,000 250,000,impor ts,250,000 200,000 200,000 150,000 150,000,100,000 50,000 0,100,000 50,000 0,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china customs general administration china commodity trade report october 2012: iron ore volumes continue to flow,source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse,8,15 october 2012 china commodity trade report commodities research copper,copper & copper products (metric tons),copper & copper products (metric tons) seasonally adjusted,500,000,exports,impor ts,net imports,500,000,exports,impor ts,net imports,400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0,400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china customs general administration unwrought copper & alloys (metric tons),source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse unwrought copper & alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted,500,000,exports,impor ts,net imports,500,000,exports,impor ts,net imports,400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0,400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china customs general administration copper ores & concentrates (metric tons),source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse copper ores & concentrates (metric tons) seasonally adjusted,800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0,impor ts,800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0,impor ts,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china customs general administration china commodity trade report october 2012: iron ore volumes continue to flow,source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse,9,15 october 2012 china commodity trade report commodities research aluminium and nickel,unwrought aluminium & aluminium products (metric tons),unwrought aluminium & aluminium products (metric tons) seasonally adjusted,exports,impor ts,net imports,exports,impor ts,net imports,460,000 360,000 260,000 160,000 60,000 -40,000 -140,000 -240,000 -340,000,460,000 360,000 260,000 160,000 60,000 -40,000 -140,000 -240,000 -340,000,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china customs general administration unwrought aluminium & alloys (metric tons),source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse unwrought aluminium & alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted,exports,impor ts,net imports,exports,impor ts,net imports,450,000 350,000 250,000 150,000 50,000 -50,000 -150,000,450,000 350,000 250,000 150,000 50,000 -50,000 -150,000,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: ceic, china customs general administration unwrought nickel & alloys (metric tons),source: ceic, china customs general administration, credit suisse unwrought nickel & alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted,50,000,exports,impor ts,net imports,50,000,exports,impor ts,net imports,40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000,40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000,0,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,0,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,source: the bloom berg professional service, china customs general administration china commodity trade report october 2012: iron ore volumes continue to flow,source: the bloom berg professional service, china customs general administration, credit suisse,10,15 october 2012 china commodity trade report commodities research zinc, lead and tin,unwrought zinc & alloys (metric tons),unwrought zinc & alloys (metric tons) seasonally adjusted,160,000,exports,impor