天然气行业：冬季供需紧张令我们的2013 年预测面临上行风险-130228.ppt

,杰夫可瑞,2013 年 2 月 28 日 欧洲天然气市场最新消息 冬季供需紧张令我们的 2013 年预测面临上行 风险 研究报告,需求上升和供应下降导致供需紧张 年初以来天然气需求走强（因天气较往年更寒冷）以及 lng 进口下降大幅收紧了 英国天然气库存。上周，英国天然气库存在总库存能力中的占比从 1 月初的较 5 年均值高 16 个百分点降至均值以下 4 个百分点。英国市场因此不得不通过相对较 高的英国 nbp 价格（位于 66-68 便士/十万英国热量单位区间）从欧洲大陆吸引 更多的管道进口。,samantha dart +44(20)7552-9350 高盛国际 (212) 357-6801 ,高盛集团 我们下调欧洲西北部 lng 进口假设 尽管较往年更寒冷的天气可能将很快过去，但英国 lng 进口下滑的持续时间可能 更长。如我们在此前报告中所述，亚洲和南美强劲的 lng 需求令这些市场的 lng 现货价保持在极高水平，并创造出签订额外长期合同的机会，尤其是面向亚 洲市场的供应。结果是，2012 年主要供应商对欧洲西北部的供应量逐步下降，最 近公布的 1 月份数据以及英国的实时数据显示，这一趋势仍在持续。因此，我们 将 2013 年欧洲西北部 lng 进口假设从 310 亿立方米/年下调至 270 亿立方米/ 年，与我们此前预测相比，这相当于该地区每月减少约三次常规油轮供应。 目前我们 2013 年英国 nbp 价格预测面临上行风险 我们认为 1 月份 lng 进口下滑仍可被管道进口小幅上升所抵消，而不会造成欧洲 天然气现货市场的大幅趋紧，因此我们重申对 3 个月、6 个月和 12 个月的英国 nbp 价格预测为 59.8 便士/十万英热单位、57.6 便士/十万英热单位和 65.0 便士/ 十万英热单位。但我们认为我们的预测目前面临上行风险：如果 lng 进口仍维持 极低水平，欧洲西北部市场可能需要在下个冬季来临前以合同价格吸引更多的管 道天然气进口，该价格目前较现货价高 12 便士/十万英热单位。由此带来的现货 价和合同价之间的套利将最终导致价差收窄，对英国 nbp 价格形成支撑，从而支 持我们目前对 2014 年价差趋紧的预测。 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 /research/hedge.html。 高盛集团,2,2013 年 2 月 28 日,欧洲,a tight winter shifts the risks to our 2013 forecasts to the upside a tightening in nw european natural gas inventories so far this year owing to strong weather- related demand and lower lng supplies has kept nw european spot prices well supported in the 66-68 p/th range. while weather deviations are typically transient, the lng import declines are likely more permanent, as higher paying markets continue to attract cargoes away from europe. this leads us to lower our 2013 nw european lng import expectations to 27 bcm/y from 31 bcm/y previously. we believe the january declines in lng imports can still be compensated by moderate increases in pipeline imports without leaving european spot gas markets particularly tight, and hence we reiterate our 3-, 6- and 12-month uk nbp forecasts of 59.8 p/th, 57.6 p/t and 65.0 p/th, respectively. that said, we think that risks to our forecasts are now skewed to the upside. specifically, should lng imports remain at the exceptionally low volumes recorded in january, nw europe might have to attract incremental pipeline gas imports ahead of the next winter. with norwegian flows to nw europe already near maximum capacity, this would imply increasing imports from russia at contracted price levels, which are currently 12 p/th above the spot market. the resulting arbitrage between spot and contracted gas would ultimately narrow the spread between these prices, lending support to uk nbp, effectively anticipating the tighter price spread scenario we currently forecast for 2014. cold weather and lower lng imports have prompted higher pipeline flows between continental and uk markets a rebound in natural gas demand driven by colder-than-average weather, along with reduced supplies owing to further declines lng imports have substantially tightened uk natural gas inventories since the beginning of the year. specifically, uk natural gas stocks in percentage of full have moved from being 16 percentage points above the 5-year average in early january to 4 percentage points below average as of last week (see exhibit 1). as a result, uk markets have had to attract incremental pipeline imports from the continent (see exhibit 2) by keeping uk nbp prices at relatively high levels, in the 66-68 p/th range.,exhibit 1: uk inventories have drawn down sharply uk gas inventories as % of full 120 100 80 60 40 20 0,exhibit 2: increasing the pull on continental gas interconnector pipeline flows in mcm/d (a positive number means gas is flowing from the continent into the uk) 50 30 10 -10 -30 -50,jan,feb,mar,apr,may,jun,jul,aug,sep,oct,nov,dec,-70,5yr average,2013,2012,2011,2010,jan,feb,mar,apr,may,jun,jul,aug,sep,oct,nov,dec,2013,2012,2011,2010,source: gas storage europe (gse).,source: interconnector and gs global ecs research.,while the colder-than-average weather is likely transient, the declines in uk lng imports so far this year relative to late 2012 levels are likely to be more permanent. as we discussed in our february 3, 2013 european gas update, strong lng demand in asia and south america has kept spot lng prices at exceptionally high levels in these markets and has created the opportunity for additional long-term contracts to be signed, particularly for delivery in asia. as a result, volumes from key suppliers into nw europe have gradually come down during 2012 and 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,3,2013 年 2 月 28 日,欧洲 recently released data suggest this process has continued in january (see exhibit 3). further, real time data from the national grid shows continued weakness in uk lng imports also in february (see exhibit 4), suggesting further downside risks to total nw european import volumes. accordingly, we are lowering our nw european lng import assumptions for 2013 from 31 bcm/y to 27 bcm/y, equivalent to approximately 3 fewer regular tanker deliveries in the region per month than what we previously expected. to be clear, although january data suggest a steeper decline in import volumes than what we are now embedding, some of these declines might revert once norwegian and nigerian volumes normalize. norways snohvit liquefaction facility (6 bcm/y capacity) has been shut down since late january, initially for maintenance, and more recently owing to a gas leak, with its restart date yet to be determined. in nigeria, a force majeure declared by shell in early february has potentially affected up to 40% of nigeria lng liquefaction capacity of 29 bcm/y. in addition, qatari volumes have proven quite volatile, as shown by 2012 uk import data, suggesting current volumes will not necessarily remain stable throughout the year.,exhibit 3: nw european lng imports have continued to decline in january nw european imports by source in bcm/y 25 1h2012 2h2012,exhibit 4: real time data shows uk lng imports have remained low also in february uk lng imports in mcm/d 120,20,jan-13,100,80 15 60 10 40,5,20,0,qatar,nigeria,egypt,norway,other,0,jan,feb,mar,apr,may,jun,jul,aug,sep,oct,nov,dec,source: waterborne energy and gs global ecs research.,source: bloomberg.,2013,2012,2011,2010,we believe that the recent declines in lng imports into nw europe can still be compensated by moderate increases in pipeline imports without leaving spot gas markets in europe particularly tight, and hence we reiterate our 3-, 6- and 12-month uk nbp forecasts of 59.8 p/th, 57.6 p/t and 65.0 p/th, respectively. that said, we think that risks to our price forecasts are now skewed to the upside, particularly in a 6-12 month horizon. specifically, should lng imports remain at the exceptionally low volumes recorded in january, nw europe might have to attract incremental pipeline gas imports ahead of the next winter. with norwegian flows to nw europe already near maximum capacity, this would imply increasing imports from russia at contracted price levels, which are currently 12 p/th above the spot market. the resulting arbitrage between spot and contracted gas would ultimately narrow the spread between these prices, lending support to uk nbp, effectively anticipating the tighter price spread scenario we currently forecast for 2014. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,4,2013 年 2 月 28 日 current trading recommendations,欧洲,current trades,first recommended,initial value,current value,current profit/(loss)1,the commodity carry basket: crude, corn and base (ccb) long the s&p gsci petroleum, corn and copper total return indices, short the s&p gsci f3 aluminium total return index, equally weighted,december 5, 2012 - 2013-2014 outlook,100.00,99.57,-0.43,long nymex natural gas one-by-two call spread long one jul-13 nymex natural gas $3.85/mmbtu call, short two jul-13 nymex natural gas $4.70/mmbtu calls,november 11, 2012 - natural gas watch,$0.12/mmbtu,$0.10/mmbtu,($0.02/mmbtu),long jun-13 nymex wti crude vs. short jun-13 ice brent crude buy 1 jun-13 nymex wti crude, sell 1 jun-13 ice brent,august 21, 2012 - energy weekly,($12.33/bbl),($16.64/bbl),($4.31/bbl),long s&p gsci brent crude oil total return index long s&p gsci brent crude oil total return index at initial index value of 1,174.26,august 21, 2012 - energy weekly,1,174.26,1,198.82,(8.68%),rolled from a long september 2012 nymex wti crude oil position on 21-aug-12 , carrying forward a potential loss of 10.77% long gold buy april 2013 comex gold, sell $1,850/toz apr-13 call, buy $1,575/toz apr-13 put,october 11, 2010 - precious metals,$1,717.5/toz,$1,611.0/toz,$211.3/toz,rolled from a long dec-12 comex gold future position on 4-dec-12 with a potential gain of $317.8/toz as of close on february 27, 2013. inclusive of all previous rolling profits/losses. source: goldman sachs global ecs research. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,4,1,2,3,5,2013 年 2 月 28 日 price actions, volatilities and forecasts,欧洲,prices and monthly changes1,volatilities (%) and monthly changes2,historical prices,price forecasts3,units,28 feb change implied2 change realized2 change 3q 11 4q 11 1q 12 2q 12 3q 12 4q 12,3m,6m,12m,energy wti crude oil brent crude oil rbob gasoline nymex heating oil nymex nat. gas uk nbp nat. gas industrial metals lme aluminum lme copper lme nickel lme zinc lme lead,$/bbl $/bbl $/gal $/gal $/mmbtu p/th $/mt $/mt $/mt $/mt $/mt,92.76 111.87 2.86 2.99 3.43 67.98 2,020 7,870 16,725 2,079 2,304, -3.68 -1.61 -0.08 -0.07 0.14 1.09 -30 -180 -900 -2 -38,21.3 20.2 20.2 19.7 31.1 12.8 17.9 17.6 21.5 20.2 22.6,-2.86 -2.61 -2.04 -2.22 -3.09 -2.95 -1.31 -0.26 -1.94 -0.54 -2.21,15.5 14.2 27.8 15.5 38.2 15.7 16.7 13.5 25.8 16.7 15.1,2.2 3.9 10.0 0.9 -2.1 -5.4 -6.7 -2.4 5.6 -6.3 -9.0,89.54 94.06 103.03 93.35 92.20 88.23 102.50 105.00 97.00 112.09 109.02 118.45 108.76 109.42 110.13 110.00 110.00 105.00 2.89 2.62 3.06 2.95 2.95 2.73 2.92 2.85 2.56 2.98 2.98 3.16 2.89 3.00 3.05 3.10 3.09 3.01 4.06 3.48 2.50 2.35 2.89 3.54 3.75 3.75 4.25 57.03 61.56 57.46 55.89 56.92 66.12 59.80 57.60 65.00 2,430 2,115 2,219 2,019 1,950 2,018 2,000 2,000 2,100 8,993 7,530 8,329 7,829 7,721 7,924 8,000 9,000 8,000 22,037 18,396 19,709 17,211 16,396 17,025 16,500 16,500 17,000 2,247 1,917 2,042 1,932 1,905 1,978 1,950 2,000 2,100 2,449 2,009 2,117 1,986 1,989 2,200 2,150 2,150 2,300,precious metals comex gold comex silver agriculture cbot wheat cbot soybean cbot corn ice cotton ice coffee ice cocoa ice sugar cme live cattle cme lean hog,$/troy oz $/troy oz cent/bu cent/bu cent/bu cent/lb cent/lb $/mt cent/lb cent/lb cent/lb,1,615 28.9 712 1,426 710 84 142 2,142 17.8 129.9 81.0, -38 -1.8 -67 3 -20 3 -7 -19 -0.9 0.9 -6.2,13.2 23.2 26.2 20.0 24.0 20.8 27.8 23.2 20.7 9.6 13.9,0.27 -0.83 0.10 -0.40 -1.70 0.43 -1.03 -2.96 -0.26 -0.11 -0.67,13.6 24.7 18.1 18.5 14.1 18.1 18.6 18.1 20.3 13.1 16.6,1.1 1.4 -2.0 1.6 -1.1 -2.0 -12.4 -2.7 -0.7 -5.4 3.7,1,704 38.8 690 1,356 696 106 256 2962 29 115 94,1,685 31.8 615 1,175 620 95 229 2,383 25 121 88,1,693 32.7 643 1,272 641 93 205 2,308 25 125 87,1,612 29.4 641 1,426 618 80 170 2,222 21 117 88,1,654 29.9 871 1,677 783 73 172 2,438 21 122 83,1,719 32.6 846 1,484 737 73 152 2,421 20 127 82,1,615 27.0 780 1,400 750 75 155 2,300 18.5 130.0 85.0,1,600 26.7 780 1,300 600 75 165 2,400 18.5 128.0 94.0,1,550 25.9 780 1,300 600 75 175 2,500 19.0 130.0 85.0,monthly change is difference of close on last business day and close a month ago. monthly volatility change is difference of average volatility over the past month and that of the prior month (3-mo atm implied, 1-mo realized). price forecasts refer to prompt contract price forecasts in 3-, 6-, and 12-months time. based on lme three month prices. source: goldman sachs global ecs research estimates. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究,6,2013 年 2 月 28 日,欧洲,信息披露附录 分析师申明 我们，samantha dart、 杰夫可瑞，在此申明，本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了我们的个人看法，没有受到公司业务或客户关系因素的影响。 高盛信息披露 全球产品；分发机构 高盛全球投资研究部在全球范围内为高盛的客户制作并分发研究产品。高盛分布在其全球各办事处的分析师提供行业和公司的股票研究，以及宏观经济、货 币、商品及投资组合策略的研究。本研究报告在澳大利亚由 goldman sachs australia pty ltd（abn 21 006 797 897）分发；在巴西由 goldman sachs do brasil corretora de ttulos e valores mobilirios 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