[经济学]兹维博迪金融学第二版课件Chapter.ppt

Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,1,Chapter 3: Managing Financial Health and Performance,Objectives Purpose of Financial Planning Working Capital Management,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,2,Chapter 3 Contents,3.1 Functions of Financial Statements 3.2 Review of Financial Statement 3.3 Market values v. Book Values 3.4 Accounting v. Economic Measures of Income 3.5 Return on Shareholders v. Return on Book Equity,3.6 Analysis Using Financial Ratios 3.7 The Financial Planning Process 3.8 Constructing a Financial Planning Model 3.9 Growth & the Need for External Financing 3.10 Working Capital Mgmt. 3.11 Liquidity & Cash Mgmt.,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,3,3.1 Functions of Financial Statements,Financial Statements: Provide information to the owners & creditors of a firm about the current status and past performance Provide a convenient way for owners & creditors to set performance targets & to impose restrictions of the managers of the firm Provide a convenient templates for financial planning,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,4,3.2 Review of Financial Statements,Balance Sheets Income Statements Cash-Flow Statements,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,5,The Balance Sheet,Summarizes a firms assets, liabilities, and owners equity at a moment in time Amounts measured at historical values and historical exchange rates Prepared according to GAAP, Generally Accepted Accounting Principles GAAP modified occasionally by the Financial Accounting Standards Board Exchange-listed companies must comply with Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rules,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,6,The Balance Sheet,Major Divisions: Assets Current assets (less than a year) Long-term assets (longer than a year Depreciation Liabilities and Stockholders Equity Liabilities Current Liabilities Long-term debt Equity,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,7,GPC Balance Sheet on December 31,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,8,The Income Statement,Summarizes the profitability of a company during a time period Major Divisions: Revenue & cost of goods sold Gross margin General administrative and selling expenses (GS&A) Operating income Debt service Taxable income Corporate Taxes Net income,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,9,The Income Statement,Important Reminders: Retained earnings are not added to the cash balance in the balance sheet, but are added to shareholders equity Accounts show historical values, not market values The shareholders equity may be much higher or lower than the market value of the firm The value of the firms land may have halved or doubled, but this would not be reported in the balance sheet,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,10,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,11,The Cash-Flow Statement,Show the cash that flowed into and from a firm in during a time period Focuses attention on a firms cash situation A firm may be profitable and short of cash Unlike the balance sheet and income statement, cash flow statements are independent of accounting methods The IRS uses accounting income to compute tax, so accounting rules have a second order effect on cash flows through taxes,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,12,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,13,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,14,Notes to Financial Statements,Explains accounting methods used Details of assets and liabilities Details of equity structure Documents changes in operation Documents off-balance-sheet items,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,15,Reviewing Published Accounts,Usual order feel quality of the paper, review pictures read Chairs report review accounts read notes produce estimates,Correct order produce estimates read notes compare your numbers & reports read Chairs report check pictures, etc.,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,16,Reasons for this Ordering,Form your own unbiased expectations independently of the latest financial report Notes to accounts give the numbers more precise meaning Compare your numbers and the firms to tell you where to focus when reading the chairs report. Look for omissions and conflicts Compare the PR-Departments public image with your (now) informed investors view,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,17,3.3 Market Values v. Book Values,Not all assets and liabilities are included, and others are understate and/or overstated Intangible assets such as patents may have some value included, but brand loyalty, technological know-how, or a highly trained loyal workforce will not be valued. Goodwill may be included, but soon loses its connection to market value because of accounting depreciation and market fluctuations Some contingent liabilities such as law-suits are not routinely disclosed, or only disclosed in the notes Accountants are beginning to mark-to-market the assets of pension funds,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,18,3.4 Accounting v. Economic Measures of Income,Economists Measure of Net Income Net cash flow to shareholders plus change in market value of existing shareholders equity Accountants Measure of Net Income Revenue Less Expenses Less Taxes The above two measures would be equal if accountants marked all relevant assets and liabilities to market (they dont!),Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,19,Accounting v. Economic Measures of Income: Example,GPCs accounting net income was plus $23,400,000 in 2001 Assume the total market value of the stock fell from $200,000,000 to $187,000,000 from year 2xx0 to 2xx1. We saw earlier that the cash dividend to shareholders was $10,000,000. The economic income in year 2xx1 was minus $2,800,000 The Accounting and Economic measures of Income may differ substantially,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,20,3.5 Returns to Shareholders v. Return on Book Equity,Recall our definition in Chapter 2 of the holding period return, and compare this with the economic measure of income,This is the Total Shareholder Return,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,21,Returns to Shareholders v. Return on Book Equity (Continued),Traditionally, corporate performance has been measured by Return on Equity, ROE,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,22,Returns to Shareholders v. Return on Book Equity (Conclusion),Thus, we see that there is no correspondence between a firms ROE in any year & the total rate of return earned by shareholders on their investment in the companys stock,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,23,3.6 Analysis using Financial Ratios,Despite the differences in accounting and financial principles, the published accounts of a firm yield clues about its financial condition Five aspects of a firms performance: Profitability Asset turnover Financial leverage Liquidity Market value,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,24,Profitability,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,25,Asset Turnover,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,26,Financial Leverage,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,27,Liquidity,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,28,Market Value,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,29,Ratio Comparisons,Establish Your Perspective Shareholder Employee, Management, or Union Creditor Predator, Customer, Supplier, Competitor, Trade Association Benchmarks Other companies ratios The firms historical ratios Data extracted from financial markets Sources Dun & Bradstreet, Robert Morris, Commerce Departments Quarterly Financial Report, Trade Associations,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,30,Relationships Amongst Ratios,It is sometimes valuable to decompose ratios into sums, differences, products and quotients of other ratios. Many such schemes start with:,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,31,Ratio Analysis Limitations,Ratio analysis indicates where you might profitably focus your attention, but it can also mislead you Look for collaborating evidence for the hypotheses you form from the ratios Sound long-term goals of a firm may cause ratios to look awful. Management-by-ratios may not be in the firms long-term interest Companies in the same industry may have very different distribution channels, and accounting methods, leading to markedly different ratios that are none-the-less appropriate to each company,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,32,Comment:,Always keep in mind that financial statements are prepared according to accounting standards and traditions, and that they do not fully satisfy the needs of a financial analysts They do yield useful information if used with care and understanding,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,33,Effect of Financial Leverage,Financial leverage simply means the use of borrowed money Shareholders of a firm use financial leverage to boost their ROE This increases the sensitivity of ROE to fluctuations in the firms underlying profitability as measured by its ROA,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,34,Illustration,(Table 3.7 & 3.8 of textbook) Consider two firms that are identical except that Nodebt is financed using $1,000,000 of equity and Halfdebt is financed using $500,000 of equity and $500,000 of debt further assume that the EBIT of both firms is $120,000 and tax is 40%,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,35,Case: Borrow at 10%,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,36,Case: Borrow at 15%,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,37,Case: Borrow at 10%: Effect of Business Cycle on ROE,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,38,Conclusion:,From the perspective of Creditors: increasing debt is unambiguously harmful, and bond rating agencies will downgrade the firms securities Shareholders: may benefit, depending on the sign of (ROA-interest rate) and ROA,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,39,3.7 The Financial Planning Process,“I dont give a strawberry what happens. I want you all to stonewall it. Let them plead the Fifth Amendment, cover-up or anything else, if itll save it, save the plan.” Richard Milhous Nixon on Planning (22 March, 1973) (Bowdlerized to avoid offending accounting students),Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,40,Introduction to Planning,This section navigates us through the financial planning process, using the historical financial statements for a manufacturing firm as our embarkation point Later, we discuss short-term planning and the management of working capital,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,41,The Financial Planning Process,Financial planning is a dynamic process that follows a cycle of making plans, implementing them, and revising them in the light of actual results,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,42,The Financial Planning Process,Starting point is the strategic plan Strategy guides the financial planning process by establishing overall business development guidelines and growth targets Which businesses does the firm want to enter expand contract exit and how quickly?,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,43,The Financial Planning Process,Length of the planning horizon The longer the financial plan, the less detailed it should be (in general) The revision of a financial plan is generally a function of the length of the planning horizon Short-term plans are revised frequently, long-term plans are revised much less frequently,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,44,The Financial Planning Process,The financial planning horizon may be broken down into several steps: Management forecasts the key external factors, including level of economic activity, inflation, interest rates, and the competitions output and prices Based on above, they next forecast revenues, expenses, cash flows, and implied need for external financing,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,45,The Financial Planning Process,Specific performance targets are generated for the divisions, functions and key individuals of the firm Periodic measurements of performance are made, and compared to the plan in order to correct either the plan or performance Periodically, key personnel are counseled, rewarded or punished, and a new iteration is instigated,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,46,The Financial Planning Process: Notes,Some variables must be forecast well in advance because exploitation requires a long lead-time, others may be reacted to immediately Some variables are highly volatile, and cant be forecast effectively, so the best we can do is to plan for the unknown (contingency planning),Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,47,The Financial Planning Process: Notes,Planning horizons must be appropriate For a magazine stand, a two year planning horizon may be far too long A pharmaceutical business (with long new-plant construction lead-times, and long drug development/testing/approval procedures) needs a planning horizon that may be as long a ten years,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,48,The Financial Planning Process: Notes,A plan should always lead to decisions that justify the cost of its preparation Proper planning is, in essence, part of the process of decision making. Any part of a plan that does not lead to a decision is probably a waste of managerial resources,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,49,The Financial Planning Process:,A plan should make reasonable tradeoffs between flexibility and the cost of flexibility Recall that in capital budgeting, options were sometimes very valuable,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,50,3.8 Constructing a Financial Planning Model,The next slide shows the history of GPC,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,51,GPC Financial Statements, Years xxx1 - xxx3,(Nearest $ Million),(Percent of Years Sales),Year,xxx0,xxx1,xxx2,xxx3,xxx1,xxx2,xxx3,Income Statement,Sales,200,240,288,100.0%,100.0%,100.0%,Cost of goods sold,110,132,158,55.0%,55.0%,55.0%,Gross margin,90,108,130,45.0%,45.0%,45.0%,Selling, general & admin. expenses,30,36,43,15.0%,15.0%,15.0%,EBIT,60,72,86,30.0%,30.0%,30.0%,Interest expenses,30,45,64,15.0%,18.8%,22.2%,Taxes,12,11,9,6.0%,4.5%,3.1%,Net income,18,16,13,9.0%,6.7%,4.7%,Dividends,5,5,4,2.7%,2.0%,1.4%,Change in shareholders equity,13,11,9,6.3%,4.7%,3.3%,Balance Sheet,Assets:,Cash & equivalents,10,12,14,17,6.0%,6.0%,6.0%,Receivables,40,48,58,69,24.0%,24.0%,24.0%,Inventories,50,60,72,86,30.0%,30.0%,30.0%,Property, Plant & equipment,500,600,720,864,300.0%,300.0%,300.0%,Total Assets,600,720,864,1037,360.0%,360.0%,360.0%,Liabilities:,Payables,30,36,43,52,18.0%,18.0%,18.0%,Short-term debt,120,221,347,502,110.7%,144.6%,174.2%,Long-term debt,150,150,150,150,75.0%,62.5%,52.1%,Total Liabilities,300,407,540,704,203.7%,225.1%,244.3%,Shareholders equity,300,313,324,333,156.3%,134.9%,115.7%,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,52,(Nearest $ Million),Year,xxx0,xxx1,xxx2,xxx3,Income Statement,Sales,200,240,288,Cost of goods sold,110,132,158,Gross margin,90,108,130,Selling, general & admin. expenses,30,36,43,EBIT,60,72,86,Interest expenses,30,45,64,Taxes,12,11,9,Net income,18,16,13,Dividends,5,5,4,Change in shareholders equity,13,11,9,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,53,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,54,(Percent of Years Sales),Year,xxx1,xxx2,xxx3,Income Statement,Sales,100.0%,100.0%,100.0%,Cost of goods sold,55.0%,55.0%,55.0%,Gross margin,45.0%,45.0%,45.0%,Selling, general & admin exp.,15.0%,15.0%,15.0%,EBIT,30.0%,30.0%,30.0%,Interest expenses,15.0%,18.8%,22.2%,Taxes,6.0%,4.5%,3.1%,Net income,9.0%,6.7%,4.7%,Dividends,2.7%,2.0%,1.4%,Change in equity,6.3%,4.7%,3.3%,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,55,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,56,Constructing a Financial Planning Model,Percent-of-sales method First examine which items in the income statement have maintained a fixed ratio to sales This enables us to decide which items should be forecast on projected sales, and which need to be forecast on another basis,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,57,Constructing a Financial Planning Model,Percent-of-sales method The second step is to forecast sales This is a major exercise, but we will assume that sales will continue to grow at 20% next year (as it has in the past),Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall,58,Constructing a Financial Planning Model,Percent-of-sales method The third step is to forecast those items that have been assumed to vary with sales,Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentic