物流管理之供应链计划及排程技术与市场全球透视第二章.docx

&KDSWHU 6FRSHThis report is intended to serve as an effective planning guide for companiesproviding Supply Chain Planning and Scheduling (SCP) systems as well ascompanies contemplating entry into the global SCP marketplace. The reportis specifically prepared to provide strategic information to industry execu-tives responsible for planning, marketing, sales, and development of theircompanys SCP business.Worldwide SCP OutlookChapter 1Executive OverviewChapter 2Scope and IndustryStructureChapter 3Market Shares ofLeading SuppliersChapter 4Market Analysisand ForecastChapter 5Supplier ProfilesStudyBackgroundDefinitionsTotalMarketByIndustry1999Data2004DataSupplierHistoryCompanyStructureByTypeDataAnalysisProductsWhile previously referred to as Advanced Planning and Scheduling (APS),the market for manufacturing planning and scheduling products now en-compasses a broad range of software for collaborative planning acrosssupply chain entities. To recognize this significant influence, ARC refers tothis broader suite of solutions as Supply Chain Planning and Scheduling(SCP).These products work in concert with Supply Chain Execution (SCE) systems,such as Warehouse Management Systems (WMS), Transportation Manage- ment Systems (TMS) and Enterprise Production Systems (EPS) to provide acomplete supply chain management activity. SCP is responsible for decidingwhat to do while SCE is responsible for supervising the execution of theseplans and reporting progress and problems back to the planning component.This study is part of a series of ARC Advisory Groups Global ManufacturingSoftware Outlook reports that include:Human-Machine Interface (HMI) SoftwarePC-Based Control SoftwareController Programming SoftwareSimulation and Optimization SoftwareDiscrete Event Simulation (DES)Enterprise Asset Management (EAM) SoftwareEnterprise Production Systems (EPS) SoftwareWarehouse Management Systems (WMS) SoftwareEnterprise Resource Planning (ERP) SoftwareEnterprise Application Integration (EAI) SoftwareTransportation Management Systems (TMS) Software.H ,VVXHV 5HVHDUFKHGThe worldwide SCP market is in a state of flux with supplier focus changingdrastically. This study is intended to help suppliers stay on top of thesechanges. Included in the study are detailed descriptions of the market sizeand its segmentation, market forecasts, industry structure, and supplier pro-files.In addition, this study explores key issues that will impact thismarketplace in the future. These issues include: The worldwide market potential for each type of Supply Chain Planningand Scheduling solution.Who the leading suppliers are, and their market shares.How suppliers vary according to segments such as region and type ofsupply chain.How Integrated ERP-SCP solutions will compete against Best-of-Breedand niche SCP solutions.How e-Commerce will reshape the industry.How the growing popularity of Windows NT and Java will impact themarketing and sale of Supply Chain Planning suites.The business potential and growth opportunities in each major industry.0DUNHW 6LH DQG )RUHFDVW HILQLWLRQSCP systems are computer systems that use advanced, constraint-basedmodels and analysis tools for planning, scheduling, forecasting, and tradingpartner collaboration. While many SCP suppliers may sell only plant-centricproduction planning and/or scheduling, the more dominant suppliers oftensell broader packages that include demand management, multi-facility, sup-ply chain planning, distribution planning, and transportation planning. (SeeFigure 2-1)This study includes all significant suppliers of supply chain planning andscheduling systems. Companies that only have MRP and/or DRP function-ality were excluded from our study. These products are not considered partof the SCP communities because they do not address the vital issue of finitecapacity or other critical planning and scheduling constraints.Suppliers of advanced algorithms and components that can be used to buildscheduling and planning solutions, such as ILOG, were excluded as theirrevenues are captured in the final sale of the SCP product. Also, excludedare several companies that supply electronic planning boards for scheduling.Electronic Planning Boards are not an advanced scheduling technology, be-cause they do not allow for a detailed understanding of constraints andcapacity.Market size is derived from ARCs extensive in-house database and in-depthinterviews with suppliers of SCP systems as well as with users of such prod-ucts. Actual market size is provided in terms of shipments by the suppliers,not by bookings or sales. Also excluded are margins earned by system inte-grators, distributors, and other third parties involved in product distribution.Revenues are thus defined as the user price, less the margins earned by re-sellers.The key elements of the research are revenues associated with software li-censes and related services. Service revenues cover application consulting,implementation, training, and maintenance.We base our market forecasts on a combination of factors including userprojections of future demand and ARCs assessment of the growth potentialfor SCP systems. ARC follows the SCP systems business on an on-going ba-sis and we will be updating our forecasts periodically to reflect the impact ofany significant events in this marketplace. ARC provides a five-year forecast in order to show our clients long termtrends in this business. Today, however, the outlook for any business candramatically change due to the rapidly changing technology and global eco-nomic environment. Therefore, we recommend that clients obtain the latestupdates from ARC before making any important decisions.H &XUUHQF )DFWRUVTo eliminate changes in market size due to ongoing currency variations, ARCuses average exchange rates for the leading currencies. All forecasts are pre-pared in current US dollars and are based on the assumption that the currentinflation rate of approximately 3 percent will continue throughout the periodcovered by this report.&RXQWU)UDQFH*HUPDQ8QLWHG .LQJGRP&DQDGD1DWLRQDO &XUUHQF $EEUHYLDWLRQ )UHQFK )UDQF ) 0DUN 0 3RXQG 6WHUOLQJ &DQ(FKDQJH 5DWH1DWLRQDO &XUUHQF XQLWVSHU 86 ROODU $YHUDJH &XUUHQF (FKDQJH 5DWHV 8VHG ,Q $5& 0DUNHW 6WXGLHV.H 5HJLRQDO 6HJPHQWVThe geographies covered by this study include North America (NA); Europe,the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA); and Rest of World (ROW) which in-cludes Latin America, and Asia. The eastern most nation in the Middle Eastis Iran. The Middle East does not include Azerbaijan, Armenia, or Georgia.Rest of World includes the Caribbean nations, Mexico and all Central andSouth American nations. *HRJUDSKLF 6HJPHQWDWLRQVNorth AmericaEuropeAsiaLatinAmerica6&3 $SSOLFDWLRQV HILQLWLRQSupply Chain Planning and Scheduling covers many different types of ac-tivities within the manufacturing, logistics, and distribution sectors.Furthermore, the planning activities deal with a wide range of time horizonswith associated differences in planning detail. (See Figures 2-2 and 2-3)By convention, “plans” deal with longer time horizons than “schedules.”Plans also address issues of what to make when but normally avoid ques-tions regarding specific production sequences. Typically in manufacturing,there is strategic, tactical, and operational planning. Strategic planning dealswith long range planning to determine whether existing capacity should beexpanded. Once a year, capital plans are reviewed for new products, andadjustments to capacity are made for existing products. The decisions madeduring this planning step provide for the available capacity and the basicstructure of the entire supply chain.Tactical planning deals in medium range time horizons, where decisionsabout incremental adjustments to the capacity or customer service levels aremade. Changes to supplier delivery dates, swings in raw materials pur-chases, and outsourcing agreements may require three to five months. Thus,production planning deals with what will be done, and when, in a factory over longer time frames. Distribution planning involves mid- and long-termplans centered on what inventory levels of which products will be kept inwhich distribution centers.Operational planning is performed once per month to monitor and adjustplans where incremental changes can be made. During this time horizon,plans begin to firm up, production runs are scheduled, and supplier deliverydates are confirmed. At this point, weekly detailed schedules can be gener-ated. Because weekly schedules will seldom be followed precisely, dailyschedules, and in some industries, even hourly and minute-by-minuteschedules may need to be prepared. This “real time” scheduling is known asdynamic scheduling.In light of the comments above, ARC defines six applications which togetherconstitute the Supply Chain Planning and Scheduling suite.HPDQG )RUHFDVWLQJDemand Forecasting includes those tools used for analyzing historical pat-terns of demand, introducing causal factors into new forecasts, andproviding collaboration among internal and external personnel and systemsfor establishing strategic, tactical and operational demand forecasts.6XSSO &KDLQ 3ODQQLQJSupply Chain Planning, or Multi-Facility Planning, includes those softwarecomponents involved in determining the best mix of production and distri-bution responsibilities among a variety of internal and external resources andfacilities. Supply Chain Planning includes both the tools used in design andevaluation of supply chains as well as tools used for planning on strategic,tactical and operational levels.3URGXFWLRQ 3ODQQLQJProduction Planning includes those software modules responsible for pro-duction planning within a single manufacturing facility. These solutionsnormally address tactical activities although they may be also be used tosupport both strategic and operational activities.3URGXFWLRQ 6FKHGXOLQJProduction Scheduling includes those software modules which determinespecific manufacturing sequences and resource assignments necessary to smoothly operate the plant. These modules are normally plant-specific andaddress operational issues.LVWULEXWLRQ 3ODQQLQJDistribution Planning includes those modules which determine optimal allo-cation of products among distribution centers. Issues addressed may includesafety stock levels, reorder points, reorder quantities, etc. for a variety ofsites. Distribution planning modules can address issues at all time horizons.7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ 3ODQQLQJTransportation Planning includes those modules which determine the bestway to move products among various suppliers, manufacturing facilities,distribution centers and customers. Issues addressed include selection ofmodes of transportation for each shipment according to channel constraintsand costs, sequencing and combining of loads to minimize movements, etc.Transportation planning can be used to address issues for all time horizons.In addition to the specific functions defined above, software associated withinterfacing these functions with other SCP components and to outsidesources and software that extends component functionality are assumed tobe included in the functional category.7SHV RI 6XSSOLHUVThe Supply Chain Planning and Scheduling market has a broad variety ofsuppliers covering point and broad suite solutions. To understand the con-tributions from different classes of suppliers, ARC has developed three majorcategories of companies offering solutions in this industry.6XSSO &KDLQ 3ODQQLQJ 6XSSOLHUVSupply Chain Planning suppliers are major players in this industry that sell abroad supply chain suite. The distinguishing feature of this group is theirfocus on supply chain issues. Companies in this category include AspenTechnologies, i2 Technologies, Logility, Manugistics, Paragon ManagementSystems, and Synquest.1LFKH $36 6XSSOLHUVNiche APS suppliers sell point solutions, often in just one or two industrysegments. These companies tend to focus on plant-centric solutions or at most on multi-plant production issues. This category contains the largestnumber of suppliers and includes Advanced Process Combinatorics (APC),AutoSimulations, Bridgeware, Cimulation Centre, ComMIT Systems, De-mandManagement, DynaSys, webPLAN,LannerGroup, NorthernComputer Systems, OR Soft, Ortems, Prescient Systems, Proasis, TigrSoft,STG, Systems Modeling, Taylor Manufacturing and Thru-Put.,QWHJUDWHG (53 6&3 6XSSOLHUVIntegrated ERP-SCP suppliers are companies that provide ERP systems andthat have developed or acquired significant SCP capabilities. A variety ofboth large and mid-range ERP companies have been included in this cate-gory. This includes Baan, J.D. Edwards, Epicor, Intentia, PeopleSoft, SAP,SCT and Symix . Only revenues related to SCP software and services havebeen considered for these companies.,QGXVWU 7LHUVAdoption of SCP technology has been significantly different according to thesize of the user company. Accordingly, ARC has segmented the SCP marketinto three user tiers. Tier 1 manufacturers have businesses that generate over$1 billion in annual sales, Tier 2 manufacturers generate between $250 mil-lion and $1 billion in revenues, and Tier 3 manufacturers have businessesthat generates less than $250 million in annual sales.Sales of SCP solutions can be made at the corporate or the plant level. Re-gardless of individual plant sales, revenues have been credited according tothe size of the mother company. This better reflects the adoption policy of theindustry according to this key dimension.H ,QGXVWU 6HJPHQWVThis report contains analysis of software sold to a variety of key industrysegments, including both industrial and non-industrial customers, such asthird-party logistics providers and retailers.Industrial markets are further classified according to their manufacturingactivities as process or discrete industries. Scheduling, in particular, is an application that differs greatly depending on whether it is provided to proc-ess or discrete industries. (See Figure 2-4)6XSSO &KDLQ 6HJPHQWVWhile segmentation based on type of industry and industry verticals iscommon and is provided, it is also important to segment SCP by type ofsupply chain. Manufacturers require different types of supply chain solu-tions. Some manufacturers find that the greatest costs associated with theirSCP solutions are concentrated in production activities, while sourcing ac-tivities are the most costly for other manufacturers. Still others find theirgreatest costs associated with distribution activities. The type of solutionneeded in these segments is very different, and SCP suppliers have strengthsin various supply chain segments. (See Figures 2-5 and 2-6)LVWULEXWLRQ ,QWHQVLYH 6XSSO &KDLQVDistribution intensive supply chain manufacturers include Consumer Pack-aged Goods (CPG) producers that must meet the demands of large retailersor lose business. Nondurable consumer goods are usually commodity prod-ucts for which demand can be volatile. If the product is not on the shelf, thecustomer will buy a nearly identical product. As a result this is a make-to-stock environment.Manufacturers with distribution intensive supply chains are buying SCPsystems in order to comply with demands by retailers that they engage inVendor Managed Inventory, Efficient Consumer Response, or Quick Re-sponse programs. Vendor Managed Inventory is a concept whereby themanufacturer has ownership of inventory, as opposed to the retailer, and themanufacturer maintains a high degree of responsibility to stock appropriatelevels of product at the retailers Distribution Centers or stores. EfficientConsumer Response and Quick Response are initiatives to increase customersatisfaction by ensuring the proper quantity and style/size/color of productis available to the consumer on the retailers shelf. Efficient Consumer Re-sponse is a food and beverage industry initiative, Quick Response atextiles/apparel industry movement.0DQXIDFWXULQJ ,QWHQVLYHHeavy manufacturing industries industrial equipment, aerospace & de-fense, metals, heavy machinery, and semiconductors are typically capital intensive industries that have heavy expenses in manufacturing. These areoften make-to-order or engineer-to-order enviro