工商管理专业MBALectureStrategic+ThinkingLectu.ppt

LECTURE TWO DR ITA ODONOVAN,Strategic Thinking,Some Basic Concepts,Dr Ita ODonovan,2,Thinking is a key component of cognition. When we think, we perceive, classify, manipulate and combine information At the end of the process, we know something we did not know before ( it is possible this new knowledge is incorrect Need to remember we think not by language alone, we think in shapes, images,Some things that we do when thinking,Dr Ita ODonovan,3,We classify according to characteristics We use prior learnt knowledge about objects or situations We use concepts, concepts are categories of objects, actions, or states of being that share some common attributes e.g. : “ Youth is a care free time” Generalisations using one particular example to generalise to all.,Some things we do when thinking,Dr Ita ODonovan,4,Formal Concepts: these are defined just like a dictionary does so it has rules about membership and non membership. e.g. A bird has wings we cannot include a dog in the category. The formal concept is organised in a hierarchy of concepts Natural concepts are based on our own perceptions and interactions with things in the world.,Hierarchical Concepts in memory,Dr Ita ODonovan,5,Level One Level Two Level O,Animal Skin, eats breathes Moves around,Fish Fins, swims,Bird Wings fly,Salmon Pink edible,Shark Bites dangerous,Ostrich Long legs,Canary Sings yellow,basic level, subordinate, super ordinate concepts,Dr Ita ODonovan,6,Level of Concept Examples,Deductive Reasoning,Dr Ita ODonovan,7,Deductive Reasoning consists of inferring specific instances from general principles or rules e.g. Kiran is taller than Suniel Sophia is shorter than Suniel Therefore Kiran is taller than Sophia Or All mammals have fur A bat is a mammal Therefore a bat has fur.,Inductive Reasoning,Dr Ita ODonovan,8,Inductive reasoning is the opposite of deductive reasoning. It consists of inferring general principles or rules from specific facts. Inductive reasoning requires us to test facts or hypotheses,Inductive reasoning: Example,Dr Ita ODonovan,9,Your job is to determine which of the hidden parts of these cards you need to see in order to answer the following question decisively For these cards is it true that if there is a vowel on one side there is an even number on the other side? You have only one opportunity to make this decision; you must not assume that you can inspect the cards one at a time. Name those cards which it is absolutely essential to see (a) (b) (c) (d),A,D,4,7,Other Concepts to be aware of for thinking,Dr Ita ODonovan,10,Failure to utilise a comparison group Control group for comparison Confirmation Bias: we tend to seek evidence that confirms our hypothesis. Think about the number of rules that could explain this series of numbers. Test your hypotheses. 246 Remember if there is an exception the rule is wrong.,Tension between logical thought and creativity,Dr Ita ODonovan,11,Creativity almost as many definitions and theories as intelligence. Common sense approach says that writing a novel, creating a work art, creating new products , inventing new ways of doing things all may be defined as creative. Note all these views imply that creativity is defined by the form of end product.,Useful approach from Individual Learning perspective,Dr Ita ODonovan,12,Sternberg and Lubart (1991) three features of creativity: Domain related skills, abilities the person has in their domain and knowledge of domain Creativity relevant processes- the personality, cognitive style or other individual differences which promote creativity Intrinsic motivation for the task and which can be influenced by the individuals environment,Basic Design School Model,Dr Ita ODonovan,13,External appraisal Internal Appraisal Threats and strengths and Opportuntiies weaknesses of In the environment organisation Key Success Distinctive Factors Competences,Creation Of Strategy,Evaluation and Choice Of Strategy,Implementation of strategy,Social responsibility,Managerial values,Design School and element of position school,Dr Ita ODonovan,14,Model Places primary emphasis on: External appraisal of environment: position school SWOT analysis Consider technological, social, political, economic aspects of companys environment Internal appraisal of situations Strengths and weaknesses of organisation Raises the questions of : can an organisation know itself, linked to idea that organisation develops own habits culture , question is evidence from product and sales more dependable.,Environmental Variables Check list,Dr Ita ODonovan,15,Societal Changes : Customer perspectives change, product demand or design Governmental Changes: new legislation Economic Changes: interest rates; exchange rates, real personal income changes Competitive Changes: adoption new technologies; new competitors, price changes, new products Supplier Changes: change in input costs; supply change, changes in number of suppliers Market Changes: new use of products, new markets; product obsolisence,Strengths & Weaknesses Checklist,Dr Ita ODonovan,16,Marketing: product quality & differentiation, market share & research, pricing policies, distribution channels, promotional programmes, customer services, advertising Research and Development: R &D capabilities in product and process Management Information System: speed, responsiveness, quality, expanability, user-orientated system Management Team: skills, value congruence, team spirit, experience, coordination Operations: control of raw materials & quality & inventory, production cost structure & capacity, energy efficient, facilities and equipment Finance: financial & operating leverage, balance sheet ratios, stockholder relations,tax situation Human Resources: Employee capabilities, morale , development and turnover, personnel systems.,Design School Check list,Dr Ita ODonovan,17,From Diagram on slide 13: you will see that strategies must be evaluated and one chosen. Consistency: the strategy must not present mutually inconsistent goals and policies Consonance: the strategy must represent an adaptive response to the external environment and to the critical changes occurring within it. Advantage: the strategy must provide for the creation/maintenance of competitive advantage in the selected area of activity Feasibility: The strategy must neither overtax available resources nor create unsolvable sub problems,Lets look at this from a different perspective: Entrepreneurial,Dr Ita ODonovan,18,Here the emphasis is on the leader and on mental states such as: judgement, intuition, wisdom, experience, insight. Vision and perspective are key ideas here ( remember the working definition of creativity by Sternberg and Lubart (1991) SLIDE 12 Vision serves as both an inspiration and a sense of what needs to be done a guiding idea. Entrepreneurial concept comes for economics in particular Joseph Schumpeter (1950) Schumpeter was concerned with how organisations keep surviving in changing situations. He was concerned with how the leader created ideas, new ways of doing things: within this he introduced the notion of creative destruction Schumpeter was aware that economists like to deal with such things as money, machinery, land. He was concerned with things that are less tangible.,Entrepreneurial School,Dr Ita ODonovan,19,Schumpeter held the view: That entrepreneurs have not accumulated any kind of goods, nor created original means of production but have employed existing means of production differently, more appropriately, more advantageously. They have carried out new combinations And their profit, the surplus to which no liability corresponds, is an entrepreneurial profit. The key thing here is is doing things in new ways and the capitalist bore the risk. Importantly Schumpeter thought that once the founder /leader ceased to innovate he/she was no longer an entrepreneur. Richard Branson is someone who fits the idea of an Entrpreneur.,Summary of key points of Entrepreneurship,Dr Ita ODonovan,20,Strategy exists in the mind of the leader as perspective, this is a long term direction, a vision of the organisations future. The process of strategy formation is semiconscious at best, rooted in leaders experience and intuition, the strategy may be conceived or adopted from others, but the Leader will internalise it in his or her own behaviour. The Leader promotes the vision single-mindedly, maintained close personal control of implementation The strategic vision is thus malleable, the strategy can be deliberate and emergent, deliberate in vision and emergent is how it unfolds. The organisation is equally malleable, responsive to the leaders directives, many of the procedures and power relationships are suspended to allow leader to manoeuvre Entrepreneurial strategy tends to form of a niche, one or more positions in market protected form the forces of outright competition,Reflections of an Entrepreneur,Dr Ita ODonovan,21,“The biggest risk any of us take is to invest money in a business we do not know. Very few businesses that Virgin has set up have been completely new fields” “I have not depended on others to do surveys or market research, or to develop grand strategies. I have taken the view that the risk to the company is best reduced by my own involvement in the nitty gritty of the new business” “There is always another deal. Deals are like London buses- theres always another one coming along” “as businesses grow, watch out for management loosing touch with the basicsnormally the customer” “pursue a buy, dont make a strategy “ “H