《外盘资料》PPT课件.ppt

,外盘豆类资料,US Balance Sheet,11/12 Production Economics (Illinois),Poor Corn on Corn yield this past summer in Illinois/Iowa make a convincing argument against continuous corn planting. Compared to a annual corn/bean rotation a continuous corn on corn planting schedule gives up nearly 50% of expected revenue.,11/12 US Forecasted Acreage,YOY Bean acreage increase of 250k acres YOY Corn acreage increase of 700k acres,Argentine Balance Sheet,Argentine 11/12 Bean Crop,Acreage will remain unchanged versus last season, at 18.7 million hectares. About 80% will be first soybeans and 20% will be double-cropped (after wheat or barley) About 53 % is already planted, in line with last season. Estimated yield is 2,6 ton/ha, 7% below the trend and 3% below the last 5 year average yield. Crop is projected at 48 mmt, 13% lower than last season.,Argentine 11/12 Bean Crop,11/12 Argentine Crop Economics,11/12 Argentine Crop Margins (Owned Land),11/12 Argentine Crop Margins (Rented Land),Argentine Storage Capacity Increased Use of Silo Bags,Brazilian Balance Sheet,11/12 Brazilian Production,11/12 Brazilian Crop Economics,Brazilian Crush,Crush Share by State,Brazilian Biodiesel,Inland Freight Santos/Tubarao,Continued strength in the real, expansion of MT crush and rapid increases of interior freight (rail/truck) to Santos/Tubarao will lead to a reduction in availability of MT beans. Will create more competition for exports from the south (PGUA & RGDE) & the north (Aratu & PDM).,CBOT in USD & REAIS,USD REAIS,Non Commercial Length vs. Prices,Monthly Bean Exports to China,YTD US Sales 19.5mmt YTD US Shipments 9.36mmt,World Bean and Meal Demand,World Bean and Meal Demand Highlights,China Steady expansion of crush the reduction coming in the form of reduced meal imports. Middle East/North Africa Increased bean crush in Saudi Arabia, Syria & NAF as well as higher overall meal demand sees MEQ growth up 200kmt yoy (in the form of bean imports). SE Asia - China New crush capacity in Vietnam as well as steady growth in demand sees MEQ growth up 900kmt.,World Meal Equivalent Demand (Beans & Meal),World Oil Trade,Global Dry Bulk Seaborne Trade by Cargos,Importance of Chinese Drybulk demand: Corn+Coal (high substitution potential + shift in tonmile) will take relay of Beans & Iron Ore,Yard Deliveries performing well as forward still above marginal cost Yen/USD risk though,Fewer cancellations (financing is available / market above marginal cost) More slippage particularly at cape/pmax yards (China/Korea) Watch out continuously strong contracting (2010 likely above 2008) could postpone real market recovery,Freight S & D Long Term Oversupply,Freight Outlook,Bleak macro outlook but no double dip OECD austerity amidst unemployment AND slowing CHINA We discard demand crisis scenario that “breaks” the market below marginal cost Lack of strong mineral demand momentum beyond seasonal pre-winter restocking needs Backhaul business remains extremely scarce and has opened up recurrent full china ballast execution This is recurrently priced in nearby carry and redundant risk of over-covering through short period fixtures MARKET IS STRUCTURALLY OVERTONNAGED FOR AT LEAST 12-18 MONTHS PMAX MARKET IS RANGEBOUND (18K 24K) AND MORE INSULATED FROM CAPES WILD MOVES MARKET CYCLES ARE INCREASINGLY SHORT 2-3 DAYS PUSHES EXECUTION VOLATILITY IS GREATER THAN IN 03-08 . ON AVERAGE 2.4% DAILY MOVES ON SPOT SPOT MARKET REMAINS RANGEBOUND (15K-20K) THROUGHOUT 2011: USG-NPRC $47-55 RANGE OR SANTOS-NPRC $41-48 OR UP+BB-NPRC $47-54 NEARBY CURVES RECURRENTLY DEVELOPS INTO CARRY WHILE BACK END INVERSE NARROWS BUT STILL ALWAYS ABOVE SPOT MARGINAL REPLACEMENT (13K/14K FOR NEWBUILD) WHICH WILL POSTPONE MARKET RECOVER F