王关富商务英语阅读第二版chapter详解.ppt

Chapter 2,A Changed Global Reality 世界经济格局新变化,Teaching objectives : Learn some technical terms related to business Enlarge vocabulary Comprehend business English in context,Say this for the young century: we live in interesting times. Not quite 2 12 years ago, the world economy tipped into the most severe downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s. World trade slowed sharply. Unemployment lines grew longer, especially in the old industrial economies. Financial institutions that had seemed as solid as granite disappeared as if they were no more substantial than a bunch of flowers in the hands of an old-style magician. Tip into 掉进 陷入 This recession could easily tip into a depression. most severe downturn：最惨重的低迷状态 A bunch of flowers 一束花 对于新世纪，我们得这样说：我们生活在一个有趣的时代。差不多两年半之前，世界经济陷入了20世纪30年代经济大萧条时期以来最惨重的低迷状态。世界贸易进程大幅放缓。失业队伍也越来越快，这在旧工业经济体系表现尤为突出。原来坚如磐石的金融机构也消失了，似乎还不如老套的魔术师变的花束看起来真实。,Given that the scale of the downturn was so epochal, it should not be surprising that the nature of the recovery would likewise be the stuff of history. And it has been. As they make their way to Davos for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) by helicopter, bus, car or train (which is the right way to do it), the members of the global economic and political elite will find themselves coming to terms with something they have never known before. Given considering 鉴于 考虑到 Epochal 新纪元的;划时代的;有重大意义的 epoch 时代纪元 Epochal decisions made by Roosevelt and Churchill. 罗斯福和邱吉尔做出的有重大意义的决定 epochal stupidity. 无与伦比的愚蠢 Make ones way to 前往某处 He looked around , then made his way to the lavatory. DAVOS Davos 瑞士达沃斯 是“世界经济论坛”the World Economic Forum (WEF) 的主办地. Come to terms with 勉强接受 妥协 安于 It took a long time for him to come to terms with his disability. Buyers cant come to terms with the cars styling, and its high price proved a bitter pill.不得不接受的现实 考虑到经济衰退幅度如此的跨时代，经济复苏进程会很慢也是理所当然的，对此我们不应该感到吃惊。事实也正如我们所料，复苏进程确实很慢。全球经济政治精英乘直升飞机、大巴、小汽车或是火车前往达沃斯参加一年一度的世界经济论坛会议，此次会议上，全球经济政治精英会发现自己开始接受一些闻所未闻的事情。,The new reality can be expressed like this. For more than 200 years, since the Industrial Revolution, the world has seen two economies. One has dominated technological innovation and trade and amassed great wealth. The second much of it politically under the thumb of the first has remained poor and technologically dependent. This divide remains stubbornly real. The rich world the U.S., Canada, Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the four original Asian dragons accounts for only 16% of total world population but nearly 70% of world output. Amass great wealth:积累、积聚财富 Under the thumb of 受。支配 The Greens family is under the thumb of the mother. Technological dependent 技术上的依赖性 Account for 解释 占，比例 How can we account for the recent population explosion? 我们如何能解释最近人口激增的现象？ The minority nationalities account for six per cent of the population. 少数民族占人口的百分之六。 当今的情况是这样的。自工业革命以来的二百多年间，世界出现了两大经济体。一个支配着技术创新和贸易，累积了大量财富。另一个在政治上主要受前者的控制，在经济上一直处于贫穷状态并且在技术上存在依赖性。两者的鸿亘古存在。发达国家-美国、加拿大、西欧、澳大利亚、新西兰、日本及亚洲四小龙，以世界总人口的16%输出着世界将近70%的产品。,But change is upon us. The developed world of the haves is struggling to restart growth and preserve welfare states, while the world of the once have-nots has surged out of the downturn. Big emerging economies like China and India have discovered new sources of domestic demand. Parts of Africa are attracting real interest from investors. All told, the strength of the developing world has supported the global economy. The World Bank estimates that economic growth in low- and middle-income countries contributed almost half of world growth (46%) in 2010. haves /have-nots 发达国家/欠发达、贫穷国家 preserve welfare states：维持社会福利 Emerging economies: 新兴经济体 Domestic demand:国内需求 All told: 总之 世界形势正发生着变化。在发达国家的富人们努力重新刺激经济增长并维持社会福利的时候，曾经的穷人们却已经摆脱了经济困境。像中国和印度这样大的新兴经济体已经找到了国内需求的新来源。非洲的部分地区也正吸引着对他们真正感兴趣的投资者。总之，发展中国家的力量撑起了世界经济。据世界银行估计，2010年，中低收入国家的经济增长约占世界经济增长的一半（46%）。,P1-P4,7,trade, jobless, financial,WEF, elites,Rich world,A Sigh of Relief 经济回暖，令人欣慰,In the long term, this is nothing but good news. As billions of poor people become more prosperous, they will be able to afford the comforts their counterparts in the rich world have long considered the normal appurtenances of life. But before we celebrate a new economic order, deep divisions both between and within nations have to be overcome. Otherwise, the world could yet tip back into a beggar-thy-neighbor populism that will end up beggaring everyone. We are not out of the woods yet. In the long term: in the long run 从长远来看 Nothing but: 只是 真是 Fame brought her nothing but misery. 名声只给她带来了痛苦。 appurtenance: 附件，附属物,附属品 Beggar-thy-neighbor 以邻为壑： 拿邻国当做大水坑，把本国的洪水排泄到那里去。比喻只图自己一方的利益，把困难或祸害转嫁给别人。 Populism:民粹主义 是在19世纪的俄国兴起的一股社会思潮。民粹主义的基本理论包括：极端强调平民群众的价值和理想，把平民化和大众化作为所有政治运动和政治制度合法性的最终来源；依靠平民大众对社会进行激进改革，并把普通群众当作政治改革的唯一决定性力量；通过强调诸如平民的统一、全民公决、人民的创制权等民粹主义价值，对平民大众从整体上实施有效的控制和操纵。 Out of the woods: 脱离困境 With one goal remaining, they were not out of the woods just yet. 从长远看来，这真的是个好消息。随着几十亿的贫苦人们开始变得富有起来，他们也将能够支付得起发达国家的人们所拥有过的享受，而这些享受在富人们眼中仅仅是普通的生活附属品而已。但是，在庆祝一个新的经济秩序建立之前，我们必须克服国与国之间以及国家内部存在的深层分歧。否则，世界将会重新陷入以邻为壑的民粹主义，最终每个人都沦为乞丐，我们仍未脱离困境。,First, though, lets assess how things stand. The world is in a much better state than many expected it would be a year ago. The double-dip recession some economists feared never materialized. In the U.S., which seemed to stall in the summer, there are early signs that consumers are spending and banks are lending again, while the stock market is at its highest point in 212 years. Though Europe is wheezing under cascading sovereign-debt crises, it has so far avoided the worst-case scenarios a collapse of the euro, a debt crisis that spills from small economies such as Greece and Ireland to much bigger ones like Italy and Spain, and bitter social unrest in those nations that are having to massage wages down while cutting public budgets. Double-dip recession 双底衰退 意思就是当一个国家的经济从衰退走出来后再次进入一个新的衰退期、萧条期,这时我们说 a double-dip recession 二次衰退。 Materialize: 具体化，成为现实 Stall: 停止，熄火，拖延 The car engine may stall as we go up the hill. 爬山时,汽车发动机可能发生故障。 at its highest point：达到巅峰 Wheeze 喘息 The old man managed to wheeze out a few words. 老人勉强地喘息着说出了几句话。 Cascading: 大量许多，飞流直下的 主权债务(sovereign debt)： 是指一国以自己的主权为担保向外，不管是向国际货币基金组织还是向世界银行，还是向其他国家借来的债务。 Social unrest:社会动荡，不安 massage: 按摩，改动 不过首先让我们评估一下目前情况。现在世界的状况比一年前我们所想象的要好得多。一些经济学家一直害怕发生的“双底衰退”也从未出现过。2008年的美国经济似乎一直停滞不前，但是现在一些早期迹象表明顾客开始消费了，银行也开始发放贷款了，同时股市也在经济萧条两年半之后达到了巅峰状态。尽管欧洲一直在一重接一重的主权外债危机下苟延残喘，但是它到目前为止已经避免了最糟糕的状况-欧元崩溃，欧元崩溃是一种债务危机，从希腊和爱尔兰这样小的经济体流窜到意大利和西班牙这样大的经济体，并且加剧了一些国家的社会骚乱，这些国家在缩减公共预算的同时不得不减少薪资。,Amid all the encouraging news (or at least the absence of terrible tidings), Goldman Sachs economists have turned practically giddy, recently upgrading their 2011 global- and U.S.-growth forecasts (to 4.8% and 3.4%, respectively). While 2010 was the “Year of Doubt,” 2011, they proclaim, will be the “Year of Recovery.” U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini, the Cassandra预言者 of the crisis, reckons that if all goes right and nothing terrible goes wrong, the global economy might grow nearly 4% this year. 高盛集团（Goldman Sachs），一家国际领先的投资银行和证券公司，向全球提供广泛的投资、咨询和金融服务，拥有大量的多行业客户，包括私营公司，金融企业，政府机构以及个人。 giddy 轻浮的，轻佻的； 轻狂的 During August our doom appeared to some giddy Western journalists “a question of days.” 八月间，在西方某些轻率的记者看来，我们的毁灭似乎“指日可待”。 Upgrade:更新，改良，升级 upgrade the towns leisure facilities Reckon: 认为，估计 He reckoned he was still fond of her. 他认为自己还喜欢着她。 听到如此多鼓舞人心的消息（或者至少是没有很糟糕的消息），高盛经济学家几乎变得轻率起来，最近他们更新了2011年全球和美国经济增长预测（分别是4.8%和3.4%）。尽管2010年是“令人怀疑的一年”，但是高盛经济学家们宣称2011年肯定是经济复苏的一年，努里尔卢比尼-美国经济学家，这次经济危机的预言者，认为如果一切都顺利，并且没有更糟糕的事情发生，全球经济今年可能会增长将近4%。,It must be said: not everyone agrees. Jim Walker, an economist at research firm Asianomics in Hong Kong, predicts that 2011 will be a “year of reckoning.“ The rebound in the U.S., Walker says, is a mirage created by excessive stimulus. He expects the U.S. to slip into the double dip it dodged in 2010. Even the less bearish worry that the global economy is far from healed. Most economists expect the rebound to flatten out in 2011, with growth likely to be lower than in 2010. In mid-January, the World Bank estimated global GDP growth will slow to 3.3% in 2011 from 3.9% in 2010. Stephen Roach, an economist at Yale University, believes that the world economy is still digging itself out of the debt and distortions built up during the last boom. “Its a really slow postcrisis workout,“ Roach says. “Im not prepared to give the global economy the green light. 香港一家调研公司Asianomics（亚洲经济） year of reckoning： “清算之年 ” mirage 海市蜃楼，幻景 excessive stimulus：过度刺激 slip into：落入，陷入，滑进 Chinas growing dependence on oil ensures that should an oil crisis occur, it will sip into recession. Dodge:躲避，回避 dodge a speeding car Bearish: 行情看跌的；熊市的 bullish 牛市的 Flatten out: 变平 Export growth has started to flatten out.停止增长 dig yourself out of a difficult or unpleasant situation ：从困境脱身 Hes taken these measures to try and dig himself out of a hole. 他已采取了这些措施，试图让自己摆脱困境。 有人肯定会说：并不是每个人都同意这个观点。吉姆沃克-香港亚洲经济分析咨询公司的经济学家，预测2011年将会是“清算之年”。沃克谈到，美国经济的反弹只是由过度刺激形成的海市蜃楼。他认为美国将会落入2010年侥幸躲避过去的“双底衰退”之中。即使是不那么悲观的人也担心全球经济远没有恢复。大多数经济学家预计2011年经济反弹会逐渐消失，经济增长也可能会低于2010年。一月中旬，世界银行估测全球GDP增长将由2010年的3.9%下降到2011年的3.3%。耶鲁大学的经济学家史蒂芬罗奇认为，世界经济仍会极力从上次经济繁荣期产生的债务和扭曲中脱身。“这真是一次缓慢的后经济危机考验。”罗奇说道，“我并不准备给经济复苏这个观点亮绿灯”。,The caution is understandable. In the developed world, unemployment remains sickeningly high (9.4% in the U.S., 10.1% in the euro zone). The private-sector debt crisis of 2008-09 has morphed into a public-sector debt crisis in 2010-11, a result of the debt and deficits amassed in the process of stimulating economies and bailing out banks during the downturn. Sickeningly:令人恐惧地;令人厌恶地;令人作呕地 private-sector debt crisis/ public-sector debt crisis私营部门债务危机/公共部门债务危机 Morph into: 变成 Mild-mannered Stanley morphs into a confident, grinning hero. 性情温和的斯坦利变了，成了充满信心、笑口常开的英雄。 Deficit : 赤字亏空 trade deficit贸易赤字 a deficit of 2,000 dollars Bail out (常指通过出资）帮助脱离困境 They will discuss how to bail the economy out of its slump. 他们将讨论如何使经济走出低谷。 这种谨慎是可以理解的。在发达国家，失业率仍然很高（美国是9.4%，欧元区是10.1%）。2008年9月的私营部门债务危机到2010年11月已经演变为公共部门危机。这是由经济低迷期刺激经济和救助银行时所累积的债务和财政赤字造成的。,Politicians are being forced to scale back spending even though the recovery remains weak. In Britain, deep cuts in the budget mandated by Prime Minister David Cameron will most likely cost hundreds of thousands of public-sector jobs. In the U.S., the miserable condition of state and local governments budgets is likewise leading to a job-killing retrenchment. Europes imposition of austerity has led to heightened political conflict. Ballooning debts and feeble growth prospects for the advanced economies are reordering the investors perception of risk. Noting that the U.S. “has no plan in place to stabilize and ultimately reverse the upward debt trajectory,“ Moodys in mid-January warned that the countrys AAA credit rating could come under pressure if debt continues to mount; a few days later, Moodys upgraded Indonesias rating. scale back:缩减，缩小规模 Despite current price advantage, UK manufacturers are still having to scale back production尽管目前在价格上占据优势，英国生产商还是不得不减少产 Mandate:强制执行 trajectory：轨道 轨迹 retrenchment:（开支的）紧缩，削减 feeble:虚弱，软弱，微弱 austerity:节衣缩食an economic austerity program. 经济紧缩方案 AAA credit rating: 借款企业信用等级分三等九级，即：AAA、AA、A、BBB、BB、B、CCC、CC、C。等级含义如下： AAA级：短期债务的支付能力和长期债务的偿还能力具有最大保障；经营处于良性循环状态，不确定因素对经营与发展的影响最小。,Politicians are being forced to scale back spending even though the recovery remains weak. In Britain, deep cuts in the budget mandated by Prime Minister David Cameron will most likely cost hundreds of thousands of public-sector jobs. In the U.S., the miserable condition of state and local governments budgets is likewise leading to a job-killing retrenchment. Europes imposition of austerity has led to heightened political conflict. Ballooning debts and feeble growth prospects for the advanced economies are reordering the investors perception of risk. Noting that the U.S. “has no plan in place to stabilize and ultimately reverse the upward debt trajectory,“ Moodys in mid-January warned that the countrys AAA credit rating could come under pressure if debt continues to mount; a few days later, Moodys upgraded Indonesias rating. 虽然复苏进程依旧疲缓，政客们仍旧被迫缩减开支。在英国，首相戴维卡梅伦大幅消减预算很可能会导致几十万人失业。在美国，国家和地方政府糟糕的预算同样也会导致工作岗位的紧缩。欧洲采取的财政紧缩政策也加剧了政治冲突。日渐高磊的债台以及发达经济体的疲软经济增长前景让投资者们开始重新审视风险。注意到美国“对于稳定和最终扭转不断向上的债务曲线是没有任何适合计划的”，穆迪于一月中旬发出警告：如果债务持续攀升，国家AAA级信用评级会面临被降级的危险。几天之后，穆迪更新了印尼的评级。,The emerging economies face risks of their own. The most alarming is a sharp rise in inflation a result of strong domestic growth, stimulus policies, and commodity prices pumped up globally by returning demand, fears of (or actual) supply constraints and the loose-money policies of the West. In early January, Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, warned that oil prices, now over $90 a barrel, “are entering a dangerous zone“ that could threaten the global recovery. The U.N.s Food and Agriculture Organization said its food-price index reached an all-time high in December, surpassing even the nosebleed levels of 2008s surge. Such spiking prices for the basics people need to survive are hard enough to swallow in the developed world. “Just at the point you start to see a recovery coming, you get hit by commodity prices that hit peoples incomes,“ says Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC. In emerging markets, the fallout can be much more severe. High food prices have already contributed to the collapse of the government in Tunisia. Inflation：通货膨胀 pumped up:给打气 nosebleed: 出鼻血，极高的 loose-money policies 宽松的货币政策 宽松货币政策（easy monetary policy）总的来说是增加市场货币供应量，比如直接发行货币，在公开市场上买债券，降低准备金率和贷款利率等，货币量多了需要贷款的企业和个人就更容易贷到款，一般能使经济更快发展，是促进繁荣或者是抵抗衰退的措施 food-price index:食品价格指数是研究食品价格动态变化的一种工具，它为制定、调整和检查各项经济政策，特别是价格政策提供依据。 价格上涨严重 fallout:余波;后果 新兴经济体也面临着自己的风险。最紧急的就是通货膨胀急速加剧-这是强劲的国内增长、刺激政策以及全球物价上涨的结果，而全球物价上涨则是由需求重返、实际供应紧张以及西方宽松的货币政策导致的。一月初，国际能源机构首席经济学家法提赫比罗尔发出警告：现在的石油价格每桶已经超过90美元，世界经济正踏入一个危险的区域，可能会威胁全球经济的复苏。联合国粮农组织表示，食品价格指数在12月份达到新高，甚至超过了2008年那令人乍舌的高度。在发达国家，人们生存必需品价格如此暴涨，令人非常难以接受。“就在你刚刚看到经济复苏的曙光的时候，你立马被冲击人们收入的物价敲了当头一棒，”汇丰银行首席经济学家史蒂芬金如此说道。在新兴市场，其后果可能会更加严重。高物价也加剧了突尼斯政府的衰败。,The emerging economies face risks of their own. The most alarming is a sharp rise in inflation a result of strong domestic growth, stimulus policies, and commodity prices pumped up globally by returning demand, fears of (or actual) supply constraints and the loose-money policies of the West. In early January, Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, warned that oil prices, now over $90 a barrel, “are entering a dangerous zone“ that could threaten the global recovery. The U.N.s Food and Agriculture Organization said its food-price index reached an all-time high in December, surpassing even the nosebleed levels of 2008s surge. Such spiking prices for the basics people need to survive are hard enough to swallow in the developed world. “Just at the point you start to see a recovery coming, you get hit by commodity prices that hit peoples incomes,“ says Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC. In emerging markets, the fallout can be much more severe. High food prices have already contributed to the collapse of the government in Tunisia. 新兴经济体也面临着自己的风险。最紧急的就是通货膨胀急速加剧-这是强劲的国内增长、刺激政策以及全球物价上涨的结果，而全球物价上涨则是由需求重返、实际供应紧张以及西方宽松的货币政策导致的。一月初，国际能源机构首席经济学家法提赫比罗尔发出警告：现在的石油价格每桶已经超过90美元，世界经济正踏入一个危险的区域，可能会威胁全球经济的复苏。联合国粮农组织表示，食品价格指数在12月份达到新高，甚至超过了2008年那令人乍舌的高度。在发达国家，人们生存必需品价格如此暴涨，令人非常难以接受。“就在你刚刚看到经济复苏的曙光的时候，你立马被冲击人们收入的物价敲了当头一棒，”汇丰银行首席经济学家史蒂芬金如此说道。在新兴市场，其后果可能会更加严重。高物价也加剧了突尼斯政府的衰败。,Fearing the consequences, policymakers throughout the developing world have switched priorities from holding up growth to fighting inflation. In mid-January, China raised the reserve-requirement ratio which forces banks to park more money at home for every loan they make to a record high in an attempt to curtail credit and quell inflation, which rose at the fastest pace in two years in November. In India, raging food prices, galloping ahead by nearly 17% from a year earlier, have become such a sensitive issue that when Pakistan temporarily cut off some exports of onions to the country, it sparked a minor diplomatic row. The same measures used to bust inflation, however, will also dampen growth. The World Bank predicts slowdowns for roaring China (from 10% growth in 2010 to 8.7% in 2011) and India (9.5% to 8.4%). switched priorities from: 优先权从。转向。 Canada has switched immigration priority from investors to professionals. holding up:举起，托起，支撑，维持 galloping 飞驰；急速进行 Childrens wear is one area that is holding up well in the recession. 童装是经济衰退中仍然保持良好发展的一个领域。 reserve-requirement ratio:存款准备金率指存款货币银行按法律规定存放在中央银行的存款与其吸收存款的比率。打比方说，如果存款准备金率为10，就意味着金融机构每吸收1000万元存款，要向央行缴存100万元的存款准备金，用于发放贷款的资金为900万元。 curtail credit and quell inflation:缩短;减缩;限制 压制;消除 减少放贷、抑制通货膨胀 cut off:切除； 切隔断 They were almost completely cut off from the outside world. 他们几乎完全与外界绝缘了. Row：争吵，吵闹 bust :打碎；破坏 Dampen: 抑制； 使潮湿 由于担心造成类似的后果，发展中国家的决策者决定把优先保持经济增长转为优先抵抗通货膨胀。一月中旬，中国将存款准备金率上调至历史新高-强制银行每放一笔贷款就必须在央行存放更多的储备金，以期减少放贷、抑制通货膨胀，通货膨胀在十一月达到两年来新高。在印度，疯狂的物价较去年已飞速增长了近17%，这已经成为了非常敏感的问题。以致于巴基斯坦在临时缩减对印度的洋葱出口时引发了轻微的外交争执。然而，消除通货膨胀的措施也会抑制经济增长。世界银行预测发展迅速的中国和印度的经济增长会放缓，因为中国的经济增长由2010年的10%下降到2011年的8.7%，印度由9.5%下降到8.4%。,A Sigh of Relief,19,Was It for This? 这就是为了未来而进行的所谓的“合作”吗？,Such numbers, of course, are beyond the dreams of workers and consumers in developed economies. Millions from Michigan to Madrid want to work but cant leading them to put countless small dreams for themselves and their families on hold so the risk that the shift of economic power will breed populist resentment rises. Many in the developed world are only now becoming aware that the globes economic future will be determined not just in London or New York City but in Beijing and New Delhi too. “The problem that Western economies have is that they havent realized the full effect of the rise of the emerging world,“ says HSBCs King. On hold:. 暂缓, 推迟