retirementage(关于退休年龄的争议).ppt

Retirement age,陈颖 2012.11.19,Why to extend the retirement age,1. Life expectancy is extended Population structure has changed Aging populations is coming 2.Shortage of pensions,Life expectancy-anticipated age,Population structure and aging population,In 1999,the population above sixty years old is 130 million,10.2% of the total population. By 2010,the number is 178 million,13.26% of the total population. When it comes to 2050,we will have 480 million people aging sixty and above ,1/3 of the total population and becoming one of the countries which have the highest aging population. By 2050, the labor force between 15 and 59 will decline to 710 million,230million lesser than 2010.,Population structure and aging population,We will have 1.4 billion people in 2040.The number of People over sixty is 411 million. People between 20 and 60 will decline from 817 million to 696 million. People between 20 and 40 will decline from 436 million to 302 million, falling by more than 30% By 2050 ,the generation after 80s and 90s will be “younger old men”, there will be 100 millions “elder old men” over 80 years old.,About the pensions,Three parameters: Replacement rate(替代率）： the pension you get after the retirement accounts for how much of your salary on the job Payment rate（缴费率）: how much money you should pay for your pension insurance according to your salary Retirement age,About the pensions,Replacement rate: below 50%(average),above 80%(utility) Payment rate:28% Retirement age:60(men) 50(women),Constitution of pension insurance,Individual account or personal account (empty account and devalue) Social pooling account,Shortage of pension (Individual account ),By the end of 2011,the book value of the individual account is 2.5 trillion ,but the amount of the empty account is 2.23 trillion. From 2000 to 2010,the pension insurance fund is put into the bank with an interest rate of 1.8%,which means the pension has been devalued by more than 0.6 trillion,What does it mean to extend the retirement age?,Extending the retirement age for one year means 20 billions pension. However, last year, the country had financed 200 billion for the pension. That is to say, extending the retirement age can just relax the pressure of the shortage of pension to a small extent.,Measures to extend the retirement age,Making people above 16 years old ,not 18 years old to pay the pension is an alternative way of extending the retirement age. We should take a slow way to carry out the plan, which means that we extend only one or two months in one year. We should think about the flexible pension system.(not suitable for the administrative institutions ),Problems to extend the retirement