项目经理教程第二周.ppt

Project Management 2. Portfolio Management,Week 2,Project selection and portfolio management,Project selection and portfolio management,Project selection and portfolio management,What are the inputs that cause the project process to begin?,Unit Objectives,Implement IT project planning and selection techniques Appreciate the importance of project portfolio management,Strategic Planning Identifying IT Projects Project Proposals Project Selection Methods Applying a Selection Model Project Selection Project Success,Strategic Planning Identifying IT Projects Project Proposals Project Selection Methods Applying a Selection Model Project Selection Project Success,But first,Assignment 1,Assignment 1 “Write a project plan”,Assignment 1 “Write a project plan” Topic: Week 3,.au/researchskills/Dalton.htm,Back to the programme,Strategic Planning,Strategic Planning,What is strategy? How do projects relate to strategy?,Strategy 2,Strategy 1,Strategy 3,Strategy 4,Organisation Mission,Money,Customers,Efficiency and Effectiveness,Adaptability,5 Forces analysis,Supplier power,Customer power,Threat of New Entrants,Substitutes,Intensity of competition,Michael Porters 5 Forces 1980s,business model template,VALUE PROPOSITION,COST STRUCTURE,CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP,TARGET CUSTOMER,DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL,VALUE CONFIGURATION,CORE CAPABILITIES,PARTNER NETWORK,REVENUE STREAMS,INFRASTRUCTURE,CUSTOMER,OFFER,FINANCE,Osterwalders Business Model framework 2006 ,Process efficiency,Scorecard,Customer satisfaction,Financial,Learning and innovation,Balanced Scorecard,Kaplan & Norton (1994?) HBR,Kaplan & Norton (1998?) HBR /periodic_table/pix/strategy-bsc-map.png,Strategy Map,Strategy 2,Strategy 1,Strategy 3,Strategy 4,Organisation Mission,Money,Customers,Efficiency and Effectiveness,Adaptability,Strategic Management Overview Involves determining long-term objectives, predicting future trends, and projecting the need for new products and services Provides the theme and focus of the future direction for the firm respond to change allocating scarce resources Requires strong links among mission, goals, objectives, strategy, and implementation,Set (SMART) Goals,Review Mission,Develop Strategies,Implement Strategies through projects,Align Strategies to goals,Set (SMART) Goals,Review Mission,Develop Strategies,Implement Strategies through projects,Align Strategies to goals,SWOT Analysis,SWOT = SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS Where are we now?,S,T,W,O,S,T,W,O,Positive,Negative,S,T,W,O,Internal,External,S,T,W,O,Internal,External,Positive,Negative,S,T,W,O,Internal,External,Positive,Negative,Set (SMART) Goals,Review Mission,Develop Strategies,Implement Strategies through projects,Align Strategies to goals,/wiki/SMART_(project_management),/wiki/SMART_(project_management),Examples of “not smart” goals?,Set (SMART) Goals,Review Mission,Develop Strategies,Implement Strategies through projects,Align Strategies to goals,Set (SMART) Goals,Review Mission,Develop Strategies,Implement Strategies through projects,Align Strategies to goals,Organisation Mission,Money,Customers,Efficiency and Effectiveness,Adaptability,Strategy 2,Strategy 1,Strategy 3,Strategy 4,Set (SMART) Goals,Review Mission,Develop Strategies,Implement Strategies through projects,Align Strategies to goals,Organisation Mission,Money,Customers,Efficiency and Effectiveness,Adaptability,projects,projects,projects,projects,Strategy 2,Strategy 1,Strategy 3,Strategy 4,What are the goals of the projects?,Figure 2.1 Strategic Management Process (Gray & Larson, 2006, p25),projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,PPPM Project Programme Portfolio Management The O is for Organisational,OPM3,Programme,OPM3,Portfolio,Projects,Projects,Programme,Portfolio,Project,Programme,Project,Project,Projects,Project,Project,Projects,Project,Project,Projects,One Portfolio or Several?,Categories,Approaches to project portfolio management,One Portfolio or Several?,Categories,Venture: Projects that transform the business,Growth: Projects that grow revenue or market share,Core: Projects that help run the business,What are the benefits of Project Portfolio Management?,Benefits of Project Portfolio Management,Builds discipline into project selection process Links project selection to strategic metrics Prioritizes project proposals across a common set of criteria, rather than on politics or emotion Allocates resources to projects that align with strategic direction Balances risk across all projects,Problems with Project Portfolio Management,Different views from senior management on what (and how) should be done,Competition (& effective utilisation) for resources,How to,Senior Management Input provide guidance in selecting criteria that are aligned with the organizations goals decide how to balance available resources among current projects The Priority Team Responsibilities publish the priority of every project ensure selection process is transparent re-assess the organizations goals / priorities evaluate the progress of current projects,Figure 2.8 Sample project portfolio approach (Schwalbe, 2005, p51),Figure 1.5 Project management compared to project portfolio management (Schwalbe, 2005, p15),Money,Customers,Efficiency and Effectiveness,Adaptability,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,programme,projects,projects,projects,projects,programme,projects,Strategy 2,Strategy 1,Strategy 3,Strategy 4,Organisation Mission,Programme,projects,projects,programme,Short term,Mid term,Long term,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,Strategy 2,Strategy 1,Strategy 3,Strategy 4,Organisation Mission,projects,projects,projects,projects,/search?q=strategy,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,projects,Strategy 2,Strategy 1,Strategy 3,Strategy 4,Organisation Mission,projects,projects,projects,projects,Identifying IT Projects,Identifying IT Projects,Many organizations follow a planning process for selecting IT projects which is aligned with business strategy Research shows: Supporting business objectives is the number one reason for investing in IT projects Use of IT standards lowers development costs by 41 percent per user (Cosgrove Ware, 2002),Figure 2.1 Pyramid for the Project Selection Process (Schwalbe, 2005, p35),Project Proposals,Most business units have a strategic plan,Which SHOULD align with the organisations strategic plan,Which SHOULD align with the organisations strategic plan,Solicitation of Project Proposals,Within the organization,Request for proposal (RFP) from external sources (contractors and vendors),When ranking proposals, consider; Discipline Accountability Responsibility Constraints Reduced flexibility Loss of power,Project Initiation forms,Figure 2.4B Risk Analysis (Gray & Larson, 2006, p39),Figure 2.4A Major Project Proposal (Gray & Larson, 2006, p38),Project Initiation forms,Figure 2.4B Risk Analysis (Gray & Larson, 2006, p39),Figure 2.4A Major Project Proposal (Gray & Larson, 2006, p38),Project Selection Methods,Not all project proposals make it to initiation,Every project idea isnt progressed. Why?,Time Money Focus,Methods for selecting projects include: Focusing on broad organizational needs Categorizing IT projects Financial analysis Using a weighted scoring model balanced scorecard Strategy mapping,Focusing on Broad Organizational Needs E.g. Non-financial, but important benefits Three important criteria: need for the project funds available for the project will to make the project succeed,Categorizing IT Projects Does the project provides a response to: a problem an opportunity a directive The time and date of expected completion The overall priority of the project,Financial Analysis,$,Net Present Value,Payback model,Return on Investment,(there are more),Financial Analysis,$,Net Present Value,Payback model,Return on Investment,(there are more),Net Present Value,Net Present Value (NPV) Model Uses managements minimum desired rate-of-return (discount rate) to compute the present value of all net cash inflows positive NPV: the project meets the minimum desired rate of return and is eligible for further consideration negative NPV: project is rejected Net Present Value (NPV) Model contd NPV Calculations determine estimated costs / benefits for the life of the project and products it produces determine discount rate (ask organization) calculate the NPV some organizations consider the investment year as year 0, others consider it year 1 some organizations enter costs as negative numbers, others do not (ask organization) Example: CP829_Lecture_Week2_NPV.xls,Time to Stop and turn to a new presentation pack,Payback model,Figure 4.1 Charting the Payback Period (Schwalbe, 2006, p129),Measures the time it will take to recover the project investment Shorter paybacks are more desirable Payback occurs when cumulative discounted benefits and costs are greater than zero Limitations of payback: ignores the time value of money assumes cash inflows for investment period only does not consider profitability,Return on Investment,Return on Investment (ROI) Calculated by subtracting project costs from the benefits and then dividing by the costs Formula: ROI = (total discounted benefits total discounted costs) / discounted costs Higher the ROI, the better. Many organizations have a set or minimum rate of return on investment projects Example: CP829_Lecture_Week2_ROI.xls,(total discounted benefits total discounted costs),discounted costs,Non-financial Analysis,$,Weighted scoring model,Balanced Scorecard,$,Weighted scoring model,A weighted scoring model is a tool that provides a systematic process for selecting projects based on many criteria Steps in identifying a weighted scoring model: identify criteria for project selection assign weights (%) to criteria add up to (100%) assign scores to each criteria for each project multiply scores by weights to get total scores The higher the weighted score, the better Example: CP829_Lecture_Week2_WeightedScore.xls,$,$,Balanced Scorecard,Balanced Scorecard Robert Kaplan and David Norton developed this approach to help select and manage projects that align with business strategy Methodology that converts an organizations value drivers, such as customer service, innovation, efficiency, and financial performance, to a series of defined metrics See for more information,$,Applying a selection model,Applying a Selection Model,Project Classification Deciding how well a strategic or operations project fits the organizations strategy Selecting a Model Focus on competitive strategy and broad organizational needs Perform net present value analysis or other financial projections Use a weighted scoring model Implement a balanced scorecard Address problems, opportunities, and directives Consider project time frame Consider project priority,Project Selection,The Business Case,Impacts Costs & Benefits Clearly compares alternatives Objective Systematic,The Business Case,Elevator pitches?,Table 3.4 Sample business case (Schwalbe, 2005, pp74-76),Example business case,Contents of a Business Case,Introduction/Background Business Objective Current Situation and Problem/Opportunity Statement Critical Assumptions and Constraints Analysis of Options and Recommendation Preliminary Project Requirements Budget Estimate and Financial Analysis Schedule Estimate Potential Risks Exhibits,Figure 2.3 The Process for Developing a Business Case (Marchewka, 2003, p34),Project Success,By the way, Things are getting better,Source: CHAOS Report 1995 by the Standish Group Access it here: /ir/library/pdf/NCP08083B.pdf,Not even completed,Typically 189% over budget,OTOBOS,53% Challenged,16% Success,31% Critical Failures,1994,Not even completed,Still way over budget,OTOBOS,51% Challenged,34% Success,15% Critical Failures,2002,Source: CHAOS Report 2002 by the Standish Group Access it here: /quarterly_reports/index.php,53% Challenged,16% Success,31% Critical Failures,1994,51% Challenged,34% Success,15% Critical Failures,2002,1994,2005,Wasted money as a share of total project spend,Billions of dollars,What happened?,“The reasons for the increase in successful projects