麦肯锡-中国移动通信市场分析.ppt

CONFIDENTIAL,ChinasMobileTelecomServicesIndustryOverview,GCOPracticeDevelopment,May2002,ThisreportissolelyfortheuseofFirmpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinseyMcKinseyanalysis,02PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt,5,*RevenuesdonotequaltheproductofARPUassubscriberfiguresareprovidedforyearend,notaveragesubscribersduringayear.Detailedinformationonthetimingofnewsubscriptionsandchurnrequiredforthecalculationofaveragesubscribersduringagivenyearisnotavailable*AllCAGRsarecalculatedontheannounceddataSource:DeutscheBank;JPMorgan;MII,EXTRAORDINARYSUBSCRIBERGROWTHISTHEPRIMARYDRIVEROFREVENUEEVOLUTION,MORETHANMAKINGUPFORLARGEDECLINESINARPUDUETOSTIFFCOMPETITION,Mobilerevenues*$Billions,NumberofsubscriberslowcaseMillions,CAGR30%,CAGR16%,CAGR83%,ARPUUS$/month,CAGR-24%,CAGR-7%,PenetrationinitiallylowGovernmentbackingforincreasingsubscribernumbersRelativelylowfixedlinepenetrationLow-endprepaidsubscriberincrease,Drivers,DeclineduetoincreasedprepaidandlowerspendingbylateentrantsTariffreductionascompetitionincreasesSlightlyoff-setbyincreaseindatatrafficinlateryears,CAGR19%,208,235,263,291,17,16,15,15,Announced,Effective,02PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt,6,*05forecastuselowcase,netsubsafterinactiveandmulti-sim-cardreduction*MajorEuropeancountriesinclude:UK,France,Italy,Germany,Netherlands,Spain,SwedenSource:JPMorgan;WEFA-WMM;MII;McKinseyanalysis,Japan,CHINAISTHEWORLDSLARGESTMARKETINTERMSOFSUBSCRIBERS,HAVINGOVERTAKENTHEUSIN2001,US,MajorEuropean*countries,CAGR=30%,CAGR=14%,CAGR=7%,NumberofmobilesubscribersMillions,CAGR=13%,Chinalowcase*,Chinahighcase*,CAGR=22%,02PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt,7,CHINASMOBILESUBSCRIBERBASEISGROWINGMORERAPIDLYTHANANYOTHERMAJORMARKET,COMPRISING15%OFWORLDTOTALIN2001,*Afirca,EasternEurope,MiddleEast,Canada*Forecastof02-05usethehighcase,netsubsafterinactiveandmulti-sim-cardreductionSource:JPMorgan;Gartner2001;DeutscheBank;MerrillLynch;PiperJaffray,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001E,207,300,482,727,965,1,178,1,393,1,633,100%=,GlobalmobilesubscribersMillionsubscribers;percent,WesternEurope,US,SouthandLatin,JapanandAsiaPacific,China*,Restofworld*,CAGR1997-2005percent,29,18,45,28,47,45,2002E,2003E,2004E,2005E,1,850,02PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt,8,CHINASMOBILEMARKETISPROJECTEDTOGROWSIGNIFICANTLY,*02-05forecastarenetsubsafterinactiveandmulti-sim-cardreductionSource:IDCreport;JPMorganreport;McKinseyanalysis,Netsubscriber*additionsMillions,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001,2002E,2003E,2004E,2005E,108,47,133,-9,8,-47,1,1,AnnualgrowthPercent,1,2,3,7,9,12,13,15,16,PenetrationPercent,47.1,43.9,46.3,45.7,5.5,11.5,16.9,39.4,35.9,Lowcase,Highcase,Low,108,47,103,-9,22,5,-1,3,High,Low,High,1,2,3,7,9,12,16,19,23,02PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt,9,0%,5%,10%,15%,20%,25%,CHINASSUBSCRIBERBASEOF218MILLIONIMPLIESA47%PENETRATIONOFANADDRESSABLEMARKETOF460MILLIONBY2005,*Lowcase,netsubsafterinactiveandmulti-sim-cardreductionSource:JPMorgan;DRI;A;Literaturesearch;Analystreports;Teamanalysis,Incomepercapita(US$p.a.),2001,AddressablemarketNumberofmobilesubscribersImpliedpenetrationoftheaddressablemarket,2005E,345mn145mn42%,463mn218mn*47%,ChinaincomedistributionandaddressablemarketPercent,1,815,1,772,Chinasaddressablepopulationformobileservicesisprojectedtoincreaseby8%p.a.forthenextfiveyearsto460millionin2005Thekeyassumptionsindeterminingtheincomethresholdare:Chineseconsumerswillingtospend5-10%oftheirincomeoncommunicationserviceshigherthantheaverageof3.5-4%formoredevelopedmarketsasagreaterportionofincomeisavailablefornon-essentialgoodsasaresultofChinasrelativelylowlivingcostHalfofthisassumedspentonmobileservices(5.5%)UnicomsprepaidARPUwilldecreasefromUSD8.3for2001toUSD8.1for2005;thereforethethresholdincomewilldropfromUSD1,815(8.3*12/5.5%)for2001toUSD1,772for2005(8.1*12/5.5%),2005Addressablemarket:35%Addressablepopulation:460mnpersons,2001Addressablemarket:27%Addressablepopulation:345mnpersons,Percentofpopulation,02PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt,10,MOBILESUBSCRIBERPENETRATIONOFLESSTHAN7%IN2000,LEAVESSIGNIFICANTROOMFORGROWTH,Source:JPMorgan;IDCreport;Gartner;Literaturesearch,EIU,100%,1996,1997,1998,1999,2000,2001E,2002E,2003E,2004E,2005E,Mobilesubscriberpenetrationin2000Percent,Italy,Sweden,Netherlands,UK,Spain,Germany,France,US,China*,Allsubscribers,Dataservicesubscribers,1,218,1,230,1,242,1,254,1,265,1,276,1,287,1,298,1,309,1,319,Aspercentageoftotalpopulationlowcase*Millions(totalpopulation),ChinaUrban*,*02-05forecastarenetsubsafterinactiveandmulti-sim-cardreduction*Penetrationovertotalpopulation*Penetrationoverurbanpopulation.,0.6,1.0,1.9,2.9,6.6,8.9,1.1,2.0,3.9,7.1,0.4,12.0,13.4,15.0,16.4,02PDChinaMobileTelecomsServiceIndustry020403.ppt,11,CHINASRICHERPROVINCESGENERALLYHAVEMORESUSCRIBERSANDAREGREATERPENETRATED,PopulationMillions,PenetrationPercent,200