交通规划课程设计-基于局域路网交通调查数据的局域路网非平衡交通规划.doc

2013年土木工程学院交通工程系交通规划课程设计 班 级：姓 名：学 号：指导教师： 2013 年 交通规划课程设计1、 课程设计题目基于局域路网交通调查数据的局域路网非平衡交通规划.二、课程设计的目的本课程设计是学生在完成交通规划课程教学内容之后进行的必修性质的实践教学环节，是课程学习的要组成部分，是巩固和深化教学内容，使学生达到理论联系实际、学以致用的重要途径。课程设计的目的在于将课程中所学的几种非平衡交通分配模型，和实际路网抽象、小区划分等结合起来，提高理论与实践相结合，将所学知识运用于实践的综合能力，并加强和巩固交通分配部分的知识点。三、小区划分及路网结构4、 经济、社会指标预测1、人口预测 规划区域人口历史数据年份ABCD2001473472541545200252159457252220036355645795802004633606689604200570673268871620067027557007092007752824773764200887081380484620099109258679112010905971959960各小区规划年人口预测结果ABCD2011982 1017 958 991 20121031 1070 1001 1041 20131081 1122 1045 1091 20141130 1175 1089 1141 20151179 1228 1133 1191 20161229 1281 1176 1241 20171278 1334 1220 1291 20181327 1387 1264 1342 20191377 1440 1308 1392 20201426 1493 1351 1442 20211475 1546 1395 1492 20221525 1599 1439 1542 20231574 1652 1483 1592 20241623 1704 1526 1642 20251673 1757 1570 1692 20261722 1810 1614 1742 20271771 1863 1657 1792 20281821 1916 1701 1842 20291870 1969 1745 1892 20301919 2022 1789 1942 2、 GDP预测规划区域GDP历史数据年份ABCD2001814816734818200210329209889122003121811201144113220041468151313881454200517121612157615662006188618322016182620072142230021582104200825562612240624022009279230322896303020103216323233923246A区GDP散点图B区GDP散点图C区GDP散点图D区GDP散点图各小区规划年GDP预测结果ABCD20113312 3459 3421 3358 20123571 3741 3702 3632 20133831 4023 3983 3906 20144091 4305 4264 4180 20154350 4588 4545 4455 20164610 4870 4825 4729 20174869 5152 5106 5003 20185129 5434 5387 5277 20195388 5717 5668 5551 20205648 5999 5949 5825 20215907 6281 6230 6100 20226167 6563 6510 6374 20236426 6846 6791 6648 20246686 7128 7072 6922 20256946 7410 7353 7196 20267205 7692 7634 7470 20277465 7974 7915 7745 20287724 8257 8196 8019 20297984 8539 8476 8293 20308243 8821 8757 85673、 车辆保有量预测规划区域小区汽车保有量历史数据年份ABCD200110410410790200215815415017620032102112251962004259256261245200529032832929520063813603573582007392390407392200846948747445820095285445475322010584568588580各小区规划年汽车保有量预测结果ABCD2011627.667630.328637.928622.0642012680.364683.176691.376674.8882013733.061736.024744.824727.7122014785.758788.872798.272780.5362015838.455841.72851.72833.362016891.152894.568905.168886.1842017943.849947.416958.616939.0082018996.5461000.2641012.064991.83220191049.2431053.1121065.5121044.65620201101.941105.961118.961097.4820211154.6371158.8081172.4081150.30420221207.3341211.6561225.8561203.12820231260.0311264.5041279.3041255.95220241312.7281317.3521332.7521308.77620251365.4251370.21386.21361.620261418.1221423.0481439.6481414.42420271470.8191475.8961493.0961467.24820281523.5161528.7441546.5441520.07220291576.2131581.5921599.9921572.89620301628.911634.441653.441625.725、 交通需求预测1、 进行交通发生与吸引预测： 采用多元统计回归方法建立各小区交通发生总量。ODABCD合计A080090010002700B800010008002600C9001000012003100D1000800120003000合计270026003100300011400运用SPSS软件进行回归统计：以X1，X2为自变量，Y为因变量。过程： 添加变量分析线性统计。其中X1代表规划年各小区人口数量，X2代表规划年年各小区GDP数量, Y为规划年年各小区汽车保有量数量A小区回归统计数据系数a模型非标准化系数标准系数tSig.B 的 95.0% 置信区间B标准 误差试用版下限上限1(常量)-100.68270.662-1.425.197-267.77366.408VAR00002.170.037.8394.589.003.082.257VAR00001.167.192.159.869.414-.287.621a. 因变量: VAR00003Ya=0.167*X1+0.170*X2-100.682=1621 B小区回归统计数据系数a模型非标准化系数标准系数tSig.B 的 95.0% 置信区间B标准 误差试用版下限上限1(常量)-118.82776.714-1.549.165-300.22762.574VAR00002.131.037.7023.522.010.043.218VAR00001.291.196.2961.482.182-.173.754a. 因变量: VAR00003Yb=0.291*X1+0.131*X2-118.827=1625 C小区回归统计数据系数a模型非标准化系数标准系数tSig.B 的 95.0% 置信区间B标准 误差试用版下限上限1(常量)-109.300178.672-.612.560-531.791313.192VAR00002.147.065.7832.267.058-.006.301VAR00001.248.414.207.600.567-.7311.227a. 因变量: VAR00003Yc=0.248*X1+0.147*X2-109.300=1622 D小区回归统计数据系数a模型非标准化系数标准系数tSig.B 的 95.0% 置信区间B标准 误差试用版下限上限1(常量)-89.211130.851-.682.517-398.625220.203VAR00002.153.062.8062.481.042.007.299VAR00001.193.337.186.571.586-.605.991a. 因变量: VAR00003Yd=0.193*X1+0.153*X2-89.211=1596 2、交通分布预测：交通分布预测采用Frate模型进行小区交通分布预测ODABCD合计A080090010002700B800010008002600C9001000012003100D1000800120003000合计270026003100300011400交通发生和吸引预测采用的人口原单位法，总的交通生成量预测： 现状交通生成量：T 现状汽车保有量：N 规划年汽车保有量：M 规划年的生成交通量：X= M*（T/N） 从而求得各小区规划年生成量：如下表所示。ODABCD合计 预测值A0800900100027007494.97346B8000100080026007423.18493C90010000120031008549.67558D10008001200030008257.04121合计270026003100300011400预测值7494.9737423.1858549.6768257.04131724.88(1)计算发生和吸引增长系数：发生交通量增长系数：FOi=Ui/Oi吸引交通量增长系数：FDi=Vj/Dj(2)计算小区位置系数：小区位置系数：Li=Oi/qij*FDj Lj=Dj/qij*FOi结果如下表所示：发生交通量增长系数FO1FO2F03F042.7759162.8550712.757962.752347吸引交通量增长系数FD1FD2FD3FD42.7759162.8550712.757962.752347小区的位置系数Li1Li2Li3Li40.3591110.3620880.3581240.358443小区的位置系数Lj1Lj2Lj3Lj40.3591110.3620880.3581240.358443(3) 计算交通量：交通量：Qij=Qij*FOi*FDj*(Lij+Lji)/2交通量交通量Q110Q312470.975Q122286.328Q322835.539Q132470.974Q330Q142741.158Q343263.619Q212286.328Q412741.159Q220Q422264.817Q232835.537Q433263.618Q242264.816Q440第一次迭代计算OD表ODABCD合计A02286.3282470.9742741.1587498.46B2286.32802835.5372264.8167386.681C2470.9752835.53903263.6198570.133D2741.1592264.8173263.61808269.594合计7498.4627386.6848570.1298269.59331724.868（4）重新计算FOi 、FDj发生交通量增长系数：FOi=Ui/Oi吸引交通量增长系数：FDi=Vj/Dj结果如下表所示：增长系数FO10.999535032FO21.004941858FO30.99761294FO40.998482054FD10.999534766FD21.00494145FD30.997613406FD40.998482175（5）收敛判别：由于FOi、FDj的误差均在3%之内，因此不需要继续迭代计算，第一次迭代计算OD表即所求的最终分布交通量表。3、交通分配预测：采用 0-1分配法；容量限制-增量分配法；多路径概率分配法。3.1 、 0-1分配法（最短路法）：根据公式： 且：U0=V*r0*r1*r2 据各道路的长度和实际车速计算出行的时间作为路权，如下图OD点对最短路线节点号OD点对最短路线节点号A-B1-4-5-6-3C-A9-6-5-4-1A-C1-4-5-6-9C-B9-6-3A-D1-4-7C-D9-8-7B-A3-6-5-4-1D-A7-4-1B-C3-6-9D-B7-4-5-6-3B-D3-6-5-4-7D-C7-8-9确定最短路路线： 将各OD点对的OD量分配到该OD点对相应的最短路上。（以下数据取整）1-4：2286.328+2470.974+2741.158=74984-1：2286.328+2470.975+2741.159=74984-5：2264.817+2286.328+2470.974=70225-4: 2286.328+2264.816+2470.974=70224-7：2741.158+2264.816=50067-4：2264.816+2741.158=50063-6：2286.328+2835.537+2264.816=73866-3：2286.328+2835.537+2264.816=73865-6：2264.817+2286.328+2470.974=70226-5：2286.328+2264.816+2470.974=70226-9：2835.537+2470.974=53069-6：2835.537+2470.974=53067-8：32638-7：32638-9：32639-8：3263最终的路线如下图：3.2、容量限制-增量分配法（采用三次分配法，第一次分配50%，第二次分配30%，第三次分配20%）分配OD量：第一次分配(50%)根据公式：且：U0=V*r0*r1*r2主干道：C=2000（pcu/h）次干道：C=1000（pcu/h）求得各路段的路权OD点对最短路线节点号OD点对最短路线节点号A-B1-4-5-6-3C-A9-6-5-4-1A-C1-4-5-6-9C-B9-6-3A-D1-4-7C-D9-8-7B-A3-6-5-4-1D-A7-4-1B-C3-6-9D-B7-4-5-6-3B-D3-6-5-4-7D-C7-8-9确定的最短路线：第二次分配(30%)根据公式： 且：U0=V*r0*r1*r2主干道：C=2000（pcu/h）次干道：C=1000（pcu/h）最短路径为：OD点对最短路线节点号OD点对最短路线节点号A-B1-2-3C-A9-8-5-2-1A-C1-2-5-8-9C-B9-8-5-2-3A-D1-2-5-8-7C-D9-8-7B-A3-2-1D-A7-8-5-2-1B-C3-2-5-8-9D-B7-8-5-2-3B-D3-2-5-8-7D-C7-8-9第三次分配（20%）根据公式：且：U0=V*r0*r1*r2主干道：C=2000（pcu/h）次干道：C=1000（pcu/h）最短路径为：OD点对最短路线节点号OD点对最短路线节点号A-B1-2-3C-A9-6-5-2-1A-C1-2-5-6-9C-B7-4-5-2-3A-D1-4-7C-D9-8-7B-A3-2-1D-A7-4-1B-C3-2-5-4-9D-B9-6-3B-D3-6-9D-C7-8-9三次累加，最后分配如下图：3.3、多路径概率分配法L(i-j,s)=d(i,j)+Lmin(j,s)Lw(i,j)=exp-L(i-j,s)/Nw(i)=jLw(i,j) Lw(i,j)/ Nw(i) 若i=r（即i为出行起点）P(i,j)= En(i)Lw(i,j)/ Nw(i) 若irQ(i,j)= P(i,j) T(r,s)AB:1,21,4L(1-2,3)=7.5;L(1-4,3)=6.3Lw(1,2)=0.027；Lw(1,4)=0.0491Nw(1)=0.0768P(1,2)=0.361;P(1,4)=0.639Q(1,2)=813;Q(1,4)=14394,54,7L(4-5,3)=4.4;L(4-7,3)=6.675Lw(4,5)=0.0726；Lw(4,7)=0.0187Nw(1)=0.0913;En(4)=0.639P(4,5)=0.508;P(4,7)=0.131Q(4,5)=1144;Q(4,7)=2952,32,5L(2-3,3)=5.25;L(2-5,3)=5.1Lw(2,3)=0.0352；Lw(2,5)=0.0387Nw(2)=0.0739;En(2)=0.367P(2,3)=0.172;P(2,5)=0.189Q(2,3)=387;Q(2,5)=4265,65,8L(5-6,3)=3.4;L(5-8,3)=7.6Lw(5,6)=0.13；Lw(5,8)=0.01Nw(5)=0.14;En(5)=0.508P(5,6)=0.472;P(5,8)=0.036Q(5,6)=1063;Q(5,8)=81AC1,21,4L(1-2,9)=6.15;L(1-4,9)=5.1Lw (1,2)=0.027；Lw(1,4)=0.0502Nw(1)=0.0773P(1,2)=0. 351;P(1,4)=0.649Q(1,2)=874;Q(1,4)=16164,54,7L(4-5,9)=3.2;L(4-7,9)=5.075Lw (4,5)=0.0779；Lw(4,7)=0.0175Nw(4)=0.0954; En(4)=0.649P(4,5)=0.530;P(4,7)=0.119Q(4,5)=1320;Q(4,7)=2962,32,5L(2-3,9)=9.25;L(2-5,9)=3.9Lw (2,3)=0.0096；Lw(2,5)=0.1412Nw(2)=0.1508; En(2)=0.351P(2,3)=0.022;P(2,5)=0.229Q(2,3)=55;Q(2,5)=5705,65,8L(5-6,9)=2.2;L(5-8,9)=3.6Lw (1,2)=0.0818；Lw(1,4)=0.0166Nw(1)=0.0984; En(1)=0.530P(1,2)=0.44;P(1,4)=0.09Q(1,2)=1096;Q(1,4)=224AD1,21,4L(1-2,7)=6.55;L(1-4,7)=3.5Lw (1,2)=0.0136；Lw(1,4)=0.1004Nw(1)=0.1807; En(1)=0.1140P(1,2)=0.1193;P(1,4)=0.8807Q(1,2)=330;Q(1,4)=24344,54,7L(4-5,7)=4.275;L(4-7,7)=1.6Lw (4,5)=0.0082；Lw(4,7)=0.1657Nw(4)=0.1739; En(4)=0.8807P(4,5)=0.0415;P(4,7)=0.8392Q(4,5)=115;Q(4,7)=23202,32,5L(2-3,7)=11.75;L(2-5,7)=4.3Lw (2,3)=0.0080；Lw(2,5)=0.1706Nw(2)=0.1786; En(2)=0.1193P(2,3)=0.0053;P(2,5)=0.1140Q(2,3)=15;Q(2,5)=3155,65,8L(5-6,7)=5.675;L(5-8,7)=3.275Lw(5,6)=0.0152；Lw(5,8)=0.0894Nw(5)=0.1046;En(5)=0.114P(5,6)=0.0166;P(5,8)=0.0974Q(5,6)=46;Q(5,8)=269BA3,23,6L(3-2,1)=7.5;L(3-6,1)=6.3Lw(3,2)=0.0277；Lw(3,6)=0.0491Nw(3)=0.0768P(3,2)=0.361;P(3,6)=0.639Q(3,2)=813;Q(3,6)=15616,56,9L(6-5,1)=3.7;L(6-9,1)=6.5Lw(6,5)=0.0912；Lw(6,9)=0.0149Nw(6)=0.1061;En(6)=0.639P(6,5)=0.549;P(6,9)=0.090Q(6,5)=1237;Q(6,9)=2032,12,5L(2-1,1)=2.25;L(2-5,1)=4.6Lw(2,1)=0.1144；Lw(2,5)=0.0119Nw(2)=0.1263;En(2)=0.361P(2,1)=0.327;P(2,5)=0.034Q(2,1)=737;Q(2,5)=775,45,8(6-5)L(5-4,1)=2.9;L(5-8,1)=6.3Lw(5,4)=0.1249；Lw(5,8)=0.0109Nw(5)=0.1358;En(5)=0.549P(5,4)=0.5049;P(5,8)=0.0441Q(5,4)=1137;Q(5,8)=995,45,8(2-5)L(5-4,1)=2.9;L(5-8,1)=6.3Lw(5,4)=0.1249；Lw(5,8)=0.0109Nw(5)=0.1358;En(5)=0.034P(5,4)=0.0313;P(5,8)=0.00273Q(5,4)=70;Q(5,8)=BC3,23,6L(3-2,9)=9.15;L(3-6,9)=4Lw(3,2)=0.01；Lw(3,6)=0.134Nw(3)=0.144P(3,2)=0.0701;P(3,6)=0.9298Q(5,6)=197;Q(5,8)=26092,12,5L(2-1,9)=7.35;L(2-5,9)=3.9Lw(2,1)=0.0134；Lw(2,5)=0.1014Nw(2)=0.1149;En(2)=0.0701P(2,1)=0.0082;P(2,5)=0.0619Q(2,1)=23;Q(2,5)=1745,45,8L(5-4,9)=4.2;L(5-8,9)=3.6Lw(5,4)=0.0286；Lw(5,8)=0.0475Nw(5)=0.0761;En(5)=0.0619P(5,4)=0.0233;P(5,8)=0.0387Q(5,4)=65;Q(5,8)=1096-56-9L(6-5,9)=3;L(6-9,9)=1.4Lw(6,5)=0.0111；Lw(6,9)=0.1225Nw(6)=0.1336;En(6)=0.9298P(6.5)=0.0773;P(6.9)=0.8525Q(6.5)=217;Q(6.9)=23935,45,8L(5-4,9)=4.2;L(5-8,9)=3.6Lw(5,4)=0.0286；Lw(5,8)=0.0475Nw(5)=0.0761;En(5)=0.0773P(5,4)=0.0296;P(5,8)=0.0482Q(5,4)=83;Q(5,8)=135BD3,23,6L(3-2,7)=9.55;L(3-6,7)=6Lw(3,2)=0.0174；Lw(3,6)=0.0783Nw(3)=0.957P(3,2)=0.182;P(3,6)=0.818Q(5,6)=408;Q(5,8)=18356-56-9L(6-5,7)=3.4;L(6-9,7)= 4.875Lw(6,5)=0.066；Lw(6,9)=0.620Nw(6)=0.086;En(6)=0.818P(6.5)=0.627;P(6.9)=0.191Q(6.5)=1406;Q(6.9)=4285,45,8L(5-4,7)=2.6;L(5-8,7)=3.275Lw(5,4)=0.0539；Lw(5,8)=0.0252Nw(5)=0.0791;En(5)=0.627P(5,4)=0.4272;P(5,8)=0.1998Q(5,4)=958;Q(5,8)=4482,12,5L(2-1,7)=5.75;L(2-5,7)=4.3Lw(2,1)=0.0229；Lw(2,5)=0.0594Nw(2)=0.0823;En(2)=0.182P(2,1)=0.0506;P(2,5)=0.1314Q(2,1)=113;Q(2,5)=295CA9-69-8L(9-6,1)=5.1;L(9-8,1)=5.6Lw(9,6)=0.0430；Lw(9,8)=0.0316Nw(9)=0.0749P(9,6)=0.5746;P(9,8)=0.4236Q(9,6)=1431;Q(9,8)=10556-36-5L(6-3,1)=10.1;L(6-5,1)=3.7Lw(6,3)=0.0108；Lw(6,5)=0.1704Nw(6)=0.5764;En(6)=0.1784P(6.3)=0.0258;P(6.5)=0.5506Q(6.3)=64;Q(6.5)=13715-25-4L(5-2,1)=3.95;L(5-4,1)=2.9Lw (5,2)=0.0222；Lw(5,4)=0.0612Nw(5)=0.0834; En(5)=0.5506P(5,2)=0.1466;P(5,4)=0.4040Q(5,2)=365;Q(5,4)=10068-58-7L(8-5,1)=4.6;L(8-7,1)=5.075Lw(8,5)=0.0434；Lw(8,7)=0.0314Nw(8)=0.0748;En(8)=0.4236P(8,5)=0.2458;P(8,7)=0.1778Q(8,5)=612;Q(8,7)=4435-25-4L(5-2,1)=3.95;L(5-4,1)=2.9Lw (5,2)=0.0222；Lw(5,4)=0.0612Nw(5)=0.0834; En(5)=0.2458P(5,2)=0.0654;P(5,4)=0.1803Q(5,2)=163;Q(5,4)=449CB9-69-8L(9-6,3)=4;L(9-8,3)=6Lw(9,6)=0.0714；Lw(9,8)=0.0191Nw(9)=0.0905P(9,6)=0.789;P(9,8)=0.211Q(9,6)=2237;Q(9,8)=5986-36-5L(6-3,3)=2.6;L(6-5,3)=6.95Lw(6,3)=0.165；Lw(6,5)=0.008Nw(6)=0.173;En(6)=0.789P(6.3)=0.753;P(6.5)=0.036Q(6.3)=2136;Q(6.5)=1028-58-7L(8-5,3)=5.1;L(8-7,3)=7.58Lw(8,5)=0.0702；Lw(8,7)=0.0194Nw(8)=0.0896;En(8)=0.211P(8,5)=0.165;P(8,7)=0.046Q(8,5)=468;Q(8,7)=1305-25-4L(5-2,3)=6.95;L(5-4,3)=5.4Lw (5,2)=0.024；Lw(5,4)=0.056Nw(5)=0.08; En(5)=0.165P(5,2)=0.0495;P(5,4)=0.1155Q(5,2)=140;Q(5,4)=328CD9-69-8L(9-6,7)=4.8;L(9-8,7)=3.475Lw(9,6)=0.0217；Lw(9,8)=0.0626Nw(9)=0.0843P(9,6)=0.254;P(9,8)=0.746Q(9,6)=829;Q(9,8)=24358-58-7L(8-5,7)=4.3;L(8-7,7)=1.575Lw(8,5)=0.008；Lw(8,7)=0.17Nw(8)=0.178;En(8)=0.746P(8,5)=0.033;P(8,7)=0.713Q(8,5)=108;Q(8,7)=23276-36-5L(6-3,7)=12.15;L(6-5,7)=3.4Lw(6,3)=0.0058；Lw(6,5)=0.2362Nw(8)=0.2420;En(8)=0.254P(6.3)=0.0061;P(6.5)=0.2479Q(6.3)=20;Q(6.5)=8095-45-2L(5-4,7)=2.6;L(5-2,7)=7.45Lw (5,4)=0.1813；Lw(5,2)=0.0075Nw(5)=0.1888;En(5)=0.2362P(5,4)=0.2268;P(5,2)=0.0094Q(5,4)=740;Q(5,2)= 31DA7-47-8L(7-4,1)=3.5;L(7-8,1)=6.175Lw(7,4)=0.0918；Lw(7,8)=0.0148Nw(7)=0.1066; En(7)=0.0075P(7,4)=0.861;P(7,8)=0.139Q(7,4)=2237;Q(7,8)=3814-14-5L(4-1,1)=1.9;L(4-5,1)=4.95Lw(4,1)=0.1603；Lw(4,5)=0.0085Nw(4)=0.1688; En(4)=0.861P(4,1)=0.818;P(4,5)=0.043Q(4,1)=2242;Q(4,5)=1188-58-9L(8-5,1)=4.6;L(8-9,1)=7Lw(8,5)=0.073；Lw(8,9)=0.0186Nw(8)=0.0916; En(8)=0.139P(8,5)=0.111;P(8,9)=0.028Q(8,5)=304;Q(8,9)=775-25-6L(5-2,1)=3.95;L(5-6,1)=10.9Lw (5,2)=0.1728；Lw(5,6)=0.0079Nw(5)=0.1807; En(5)=0.043P(5,2)=0.041;P(5,6)=0.002Q(5,2)=112;Q(5,6)=5DB7-47-8L(7-4,3)=6;L(7-8,3)=6.675Lw(7,4)=0.0440；Lw(7,8)=0.0309Nw(7)=0.0749P(7,4)=0.587;P(7,8)=0.413Q(7,4)=1329;Q(7,8)=9354-14-5L(4-1,3)=7;L(4-5,3)=4.4Lw(4,1)=0.0174；Lw(4,5)=0.0784Nw(4)=0.0958; En(4)=0.044P(4,1)=0.008;P(4,5)=0.036Q(4,1)=18;Q(4,5)=825-25-6L(5-2,3)=6.95;L(5-6,3)=3.4Lw (5,2)=0.0119；Lw(5,6)=0.1144Nw(5)=0.1263; En(5)=0.0