ANDINTERNATIONALLINKAGES(跨国公司财务管理-Jose.ppt

1,MultinationalFinancialManagementAlanShapiro7thEditionJ.Wiley&Sons,PowerPointsbyJosephF.Greco,Ph.D.CaliforniaStateUniversity,Fullerton,2,CHAPTER5,THEBALANCEOFPAYMENTSANDINTERNATIONALLINKAGES,3,CHAPTEROVERVIEW,I.BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIESII.THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITALIII.COPINGWITHCURRENTACCOUNTDEFICITS,4,PARTI.BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,A.THEBALANCEOFPAYMENTS(B-O-P)1.PURPOSE:Measuresallfinancialandeconomictransactionsoveraspecifiedperiodoftime.,5,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,2.Double-entrybookkeepinga.Currencyinflows=creditsearnforeignexchangeb.Currencyoutflows=debitsexpendforeignexchange,6,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,3.ThreeMajorAccounts:a.Currentb.Capitalc.OfficialReserves4.CurrentAccountrecordsnetflowofgoods,services,andunilateraltransfers.,7,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,5.CapitalAccounta.Function:recordspublicandprivateinvestmentandlending.b.Inflows=creditsc.Outflows=debits,8,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,5.CapitalAccount(cont)d.Transactionsclassifiedas1.)portfolio2.)direct3.)shortterm,9,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,6.OfficialReservesAccounta.Function:1.)measureschangesininternationalreservesownedbycentralbanks.2.)reflectssurplus/deficitofa.)currentaccountb.)capitalaccount,10,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,6.OfficialReservesAccount(cont)b.Reservesconsistof1.)gold2.)convertiblesecurities,11,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,7.NetEffects:a.Sumofalltransactionsmustbezero:1.)currentaccount2.)capitalaccount3.)officialreserves,12,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,8.TheBalance-of-paymentmeasuresa.SomeDefinitions:1.)BasicBalancea.)consistsofcurrentaccountandlong-termcapitalflows.,13,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,1.)BasicBalance(cont)b.)emphasizeslong-termtrends.,14,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,1.)BasicBalance(cont)c.)excludesshort-termcapitalflowsthatheavilydependontemporaryfactors.,15,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,2.)NetLiquidityBalance:measuresthechangeinprivatedomesticborrowingorlendingrequiretokeeppaymentsequalwithoutadjustingofficialreserves.,16,BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTCATEGORIES,3.)OfficialReserveTransactionsBalance-measuresadjustmentsneededbyofficialreserves.,17,PARTII.THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL,II.LINKSFROMINTERNATIONALTODOMESTICFLOWSA.GlobalLinkagessetofbasicmacroeconomicidentitieswhichlink:domesticspendingandproductiontocurrentandcapitalaccounts,18,THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL,B.DomesticSavingsandInvestmentandtheCapitalAccount1.NationalIncomeAccountinga.NationalIncome(NI)iseitherspent(C)orsaved(S)NI=C+S(5.1),19,THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL,b.Nationalspending(NS)isdividedintopersonalspending(C)andinvestment(I)NS=C+I(5.2),20,THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL,c.Subtracting(4.2)-(4.1)NI-NS=S-I(5.3)IfNINS,SIwhichimpliesthatsurpluscapitalspentoverseas.,21,THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL,d.Inafreely-floatingsystem,excesssaving=thecapitalaccountbalancee.Implications:1.Anationwhichproducesmorethanitspendswillsavemorethanitinvestsdomesticallywithanetcapitaloutflowproducingacapitalaccountdeficit.,22,THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL,2.Anationwhichspendsmorethanitproduceshasanetcapitalinflowproducingacapitalaccountsurplus.3.Ahealthyeconomywilltendtorunacurrentaccountdeficit.,23,THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL,C.THELINKBETWEENTHECURRENTANDCAPITALACCOUNTS1.BeginningidentityNI-NS=X-M(5.4)whereX=exportsM=importsX-M=currentaccountbalance(CA),24,THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL,2.Combining(5.3)+(5.4)S-I=X-M(5.5)3.IfS-I=NetForeignInvestment(NFI)NFI=X-M(5.6),25,THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL,4.Implications:a.IfCAisinsurplus,thenationmustbeanetexporterofcapital.b.IfCAisadeficit,thenationisamajorcapitalimporter.c.WhenNSNI,theexcessmustbeacquiredthroughforeigntrade.,26,THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL,d.SolutionsforImprovingCAdeficits:1.)Raisenationalincome(output)relativetodomesticinvestment(I).2.)Increase(S)relativetodomesticinvestment(I).,27,THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL,D.GOVERNMENTBUDGETSANDCURRENTACCOUNTDEFICITS1.CURRENTACCOUNTBALANCECA=SavingSurplus-Govtbudgetdeficit,28,THEINTERNATIONALFLOWOFGOODS,SERVICES,ANDCAPITAL,2.CADeficitmeansthenationisnotsavingenoughtofinance(I)andthedeficit.3.CASurplusmeansthenationissavingmorethanneededtofinanceits(I)anddeficit.,29,PARTIII.COPINGWITHTHECURRENTACCOUNTDEFICIT,I.POSSIBLESOLUTIONSUNLIKELYTOWORK:A.CurrencyDepreciationB.Protectionism,30,COPINGWITHTHECURRENTACCOUNTDEFICIT,II.CURRENCYDEPRECIATIONA.U.S.Experience:Doesnotimprovethetradedeficit.,31,COPINGWITHTHECURRENTACCOUNTDEFICIT,B.Depreciationsareineffectivebecause1.Ittakestimetoaffecttrade.2.J-CurveEffectstatesthatadeclineincurrencyvaluewillinitiallyworsenthedeficitbeforeimprovement.,32,THEJ-CURVE,TIME,Netchangeintradebalance,0,Currencydepreciation,Tradebalanceinitiallydeteriorates,Tradebalanceimproves,33,COPINGWITHTHECURRENTACCOUNTDEFICIT,III.PROTECTIONISMA.TradeBarriersused:1.Tariffs2.QuotasB.Results:MostlikelywillreducebothXandM.,34,COPINGWITHTHECURRENTACCOUNTDEFICIT,C.FOREIGNOWNERSHIPoneprotectionistsolutionwouldplacelimitsonoreliminateforeignownershipleadingtocapitalinflows.,35,COPINGWITHTHECURRENTACCOUNTDEFICIT,D.STIMULATENATIONALSAVINGchangethetaxregulationsandrates.,36,COPINGWITHTHECURRENTACC