电信业-重组后的三国演义.pdf

UBS Investment Research 中国电信业 重组后的三国演义 王进琎 2008年6月 瑞银亚洲区电信研究组组长 jinjin.wang 2971 8579 ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE13 UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Ltd, an affiliate of UBS AG (UBS). 1 行业重组 终于发生 ?电信重组前电信重组前 中国移动的领先地位愈来愈强 移动对固定电话的替代效应日渐 明显 ?电信重组终于发生电信重组终于发生 市场从04年中开始传言 中国电信行业的竞争风险加大 政策的不确定性仍然存在 5/26/2004 重组传言第一次出现在市场上：四合二方案已经上交给国务院 审批（移动+网通；联通+电信） 11/1/20044家电信公司管理层互换 11/9/2004 市场传言联通将被分拆，重组为方案为6+3：1）移动+铁通+ 卫通；2）网通+CDMA+联通南方固网；3）电信+GSM+联通 北方固网 2/3/2005 王晓初说电信有兴趣同网通一起买联通的一张网 7/25/2005 媒体报道重组会在8月1号前公布 4/24/2006 媒体报道电信管理层会近期再次互换，重组会同时公布 12/5/2006 国资委公布有关国有企业重组的政策指引，并说会进一步推进 电信业重组 1/27/2007 媒体报道联通拆分GSM和CDMA的销售队伍 6/7/2007 媒体报道国资委已经初步决定重组 9/3/2007 媒体报道国资委会在07第四季度开始重组，于08年3月完成 11/18/2007 信产部说会推进重组进程的加快 12/9/2007 国资委研究部提议加快给固网运营商发放移动牌照 1/10/2008 媒体报道根据国务院内部会议，重组很快会发生 5/23/2008 管理层互换公布，三家电信公司停盘准备发布重组信息 6/1/2008 重组公布，信产部发布重组后发放3G牌照以及行业管制的公告 话务量市场份额话务量市场份额 24% 29% 34% 41% 50% 76% 71% 66% 59% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 20032004200520062007 移动其他三家 收入市场份额收入市场份额 41%42% 44% 48% 54% 59%58% 56% 52% 46% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 20032004200520062007 移动其他三家 净利润市场份额净利润市场份额 52% 56% 59% 63% 69% 48% 44% 41% 37% 31% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 20032004200520062007 移动其他三家 2 行业重组 相对于市场和UBS预期 ?重组方案与市场预期基本一致重组方案与市场预期基本一致 五合三方案是最平衡，最有效 率的解决方案 三家运营商都成为综合运营商 ，可以提供全面的电信服务 ?两点出乎市场预期两点出乎市场预期 工信部指引3G牌照在完成重组 后短期内发放 非对称性管制政策浮出水面 ?重组方案与我们的主要差别重组方案与我们的主要差别 CDMA网络和用户的估值 联通和网通的换股比率 中国移动中国移动 GSM移动网 中国铁通中国铁通 固话+宽带 中国网通中国网通 北方10省固话+宽带 中国电信中国电信 南方21省固话+宽带 中国联通中国联通 GSM + CDMA 移动网 电信现金收购联通的 CDMA网络和用户 移动合并铁通 中国移动中国移动 GSM移动网+固话+ 宽带 中国电信中国电信 CDMA移动网+固话 +宽带 中国联通中国联通/网通网通 GSM移动网+固话+ 宽带 联通和网通换股方式 和并 CDMA网络和用户出售 联通和网通的换股比率 公司提议 网络和用户出售联通和网通的换股比率 公司提议 用户价值人民币438亿，或者135美元每用户 网络价值人民币662亿 电信母公司出资购买网络，上市公司从母公司租用 换股比率1.508:1 (1股网通股票换取1.508股联通股票) UBS之前预测之前预测 用户价值人民币490亿，或者150美元每用户 网络价值人民币670亿 电信母公司出资购买网络，上市公司从母公司租用 换股比率1:1，基于联通和网通相同的目标价港币20元 网通的目标价是在真实价值的基础上加10%并购溢价 3 非对称性管制 没有清晰的时间表和执行计划 ?政府的目标：多个目标的平衡政府的目标：多个目标的平衡 电信网络安全 信息和意识形态的控制 TD-SCDMA的成功 质优价廉的电信服务，尤其在农村市场 企业的国际扩展 ?韩国不是很可比的案例韩国不是很可比的案例 中国电信市场仍然处在高速发展阶段 中国政府仍然是中移动的大股东 中移动的规模优势比SKT明显 中国监管机构的执行力弱 ?非对称性管制不是核心竞争力非对称性管制不是核心竞争力 网络质量/网络覆盖决定业务扩展能力 执行能力决定服务水平 中国中国 (2008年底 年底) 韩国韩国 (2003年底 年底) 人口（百万）人口（百万） 1,32848 国土面积（千平方公里）国土面积（千平方公里） 9,600100 GDP (十亿美元十亿美元) 3783.4609 人均人均GDP (美元 美元) 2,84812704 移动用户（百万）移动用户（百万） 63634 移动渗透率移动渗透率 47.9%70.1% 市场份额分布市场份额分布 71%:29% (CM:CU) 55%:31%:14% (SKT:KTF:LGT) 领先运营商用户数（百万）领先运营商用户数（百万） 454.318.3 政府政策可能性有效性影响政府政策可能性有效性影响 UBS预计的时间表 让移动承担 预计的时间表 让移动承担TD-SCDMA非常可能有效对移动负面 08年第四季度 单向号码可携带单向号码可携带可能有效对移动负面 2009年中 市场份额限制市场份额限制可能性小有效对移动负面未知 网络共享网络共享可能效果不明显对移动负面 2009年初 资费限制资费限制可能性小效果不明显对移动负面未知 互联互通费改变互联互通费改变可能有效未知 2009年底 4 重组后的电信市场 整体吸引力下降 ?我们对重组后电信市场的看法 电信股票整体吸引力下降电信股票整体吸引力下降: 竞争加剧 资本支出提高 更多的政府干预 中国移动中国移动: 领先地位短期内不会受到冲击 规模效应：绝对和相对规模效应都没有可 比公司 频谱及站点资源 管理层的执行能力优于其它电信公司 中国电信中国电信: 中国移动的潜在竞争者 宽带业务移动业务优势 政企客户直销团队 较强的管理层执行力 清晰的市场战略和发展规划 中国联通中国联通/网通网通: 重组后的最弱者 合并及整合风险 市场战略规划弱于中国电信 重组后面临两个强有力对手 持有主流3G技术的优势短期不是那么明显 国家市场份额最大的运营商用户数（千人）市场份额国家市场份额最大的运营商用户数（千人）市场份额 中国 China Mobile369,33969% 印度Bharti Tele-Ventures 55,16324% 印尼Telkom Indonesia 46,96044% 日本NTT DoCoMo 53,15153% 韩国SK Telecom 21,96851% 马来西亚Maxis Communications 9,72142% 法国Orange 25,64247% 德国T-Mobile 35,95237% 意大利TIM 36,33137% 西班牙Telefonica 22,82746% 英国Vodafone 18,44725% 埃及MobiNil 15,11848% 俄罗斯MTS 55,10334% 南非Vodacom 22,59255% 美国AT historical performance information; and certain additional disclosures concerning UBS research recommendations, please visit UBS Investment Research: Global Equity Rating Definitions UBS 12-Month Rating Definition Buy FSR is 6% above the MRA. 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Company NameReuters12-mo ratingShort-term ratingPricePrice date China Mobile (HK) Ltd4b, 16a, 16b, 220941.HKBuyN/AHK$107.0019-Jun-08 China Netcom Corporation16a, 16b0906.HKNeutralN/AHK$22.0519-Jun-08 China Telecom2, 3a, 4a, 5, 16a, 16b, 220728.HKNeutralN/AHK$4.4819-Jun-08 China Unicom Ltd.3b, 16a, 16b0762.HKNeutralN/AHK$14.8619-Jun-08 Source: UBS. All prices as of local market close. Ratings in this table are the most current published ratings prior to this report. They may be more recent than the stock pricing date 2.UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has acted as manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities of this company/entity or one of its affiliates within the past five years. 3a.UBS AG is acting as financial advisor to China Telecom on its proposed acquisition / restructuring 3b.UBS AG is acting as financial advisor to China Telecom on its proposed acquisition / restructuring. 4a.Within the past 12 months, UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has received compensation for investment banking services from this company/entity. 4b.Within the past three years, UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has received compensation for investment banking services from this company/entity. 5.UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company/entity within the next three months. 16a.UBS Securities (Hong Kong) Limited is a market maker in the HK-listed securities of this company. 16b.UBS Securities LLC makes a market in the securities and/or ADRs of this company. 22.UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries held other significant financial interests in this company/entity as of last months end (or the prior months end if this report is dated less than 10 working days after the most recent months end). 10 UBS Analyst Name Jinjin Wang Co-head of Asian Telecom Research, UBS Jinjin.wang Tel:+852-2971-8579 Contact information 11 Global Disclaimer This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Ltd, an affiliate of UBS AG. 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