产业结构和经济稳定外文翻译.doc

产业结构和经济稳定外文翻译 本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目: Industrial structure and economic stability出 处: Applied economic letters 作 者: Sherrill Shaffer 原文: Motivated by prior results predicting contrasting linkages between industrial structure and economic stability, we present exploratory empirical evidence on this important issue. Consistent with the turnover hypothesis, we find that employment grew more steadily where business establishments in all sectors were larger, suggesting an offsetting benefit to the first-moment costs of establishment size identified by previous research. Consistent with the job-matching hypothesis, we find that employment grew more steadily where more establishments per capita operated in all sectors. Similar but less consistent results were also found regarding the stability of income growth. Introduction and Background The fundamental importance of economic performance has spawned an extensive literature on the empirical determinants of economic growth see Rajan and Zingales, 1998; Levine et al., 2000 for prominent examples. One recent discovery is that communities or local regions tend to experience more rapid growth of income or employment where businesses are smaller Shaffer, 2002, 2006a, b. A separate strand of research, meanwhile, has demonstrated the importance of studying the volatility of growth rates rather than merely their means Ramey and Ramey, 1995; Kurz, 2004; Ismihan, 2005; Bekaert et al., 2006. It is relevant in this regard that several studies Davis and Haltiwanger, 1992; Rob, 1995; Davis et al., 1996 have found that jobs at smaller firms tend to be less permanent than at larger firms; while Ilmakunnas et al. 2005 have suggested that such turnover may actually be one reason for faster productivity growth, an unexplored implication is that the volatility of employment and income may be higher where businesses are smaller the turnover hypothesis. Conversely, heterogeneity among decision-makers due to human fallibility can result in greater variability of economic performance in more centralized decision processes Sah, 1991; Sah and Stiglitz, 1991; Almeida and Ferreira, 2002, possibly suggesting that a local economy may exhibit greater stability where the average firms are smaller or more numerous. A similar outcome is predicted to the extent that a centralized decision processes are less successful at managing conflict and b distributional conflicts impair efficient adjustments to exogenous shocks Rodrik, 1999; Almeida and Ferreira, 2002. In view of these contrasting considerations, an important empirical question is whether establishment size and other measures of industrial structure may be systematically associated with second moment measures of economic performance. This article accordingly presents preliminary evidence of linkages between selected measures of industrial structure and the volatility of local income and employment growth rates. We use three measures of industrial structure, each distinguished by broad sector. As in Shaffer 2002, we measure average establishment size by number of employees and, alternatively, by dollars of value added, shipments or receipts. We also look at establishments per capita, motivated by two opposing considerations. Finding a new job should be easier in a market with more employers in a given sector, leading to more stable levels or growth rates of income and employment the job-matching hypothesis. But, ceteris paribus, smaller firms will tend to permit the coexistence of larger numbers of firms, in which case the documented employment turnover at smaller firms discussed above will tend to offset the stabilizing benefit of more numerous firms. Each of our measures of industrial structure is compiled separately for the manufacturing, wholesale, retail and service sectors. We relate these measures of structure to two second-moment measures of economic performance, the SD of annual real per capita income growth rates and the SD of the annual growth rate of total establishment employment. The results contribute to two separate strands of the literature, on empirical covariates with growth volatility and on macroeconomic effects of establishment size and other measures of industrial structure. We find for all sectors that larger establishments and more establishments per capita are associated with more stable employment growth rates, consistent with the turnover and job-matching hypotheses. The same linkages are found for some but not all of the sectors with regard to the volatility of growth rates in real per capita income. The next section introduces the empirical model and the sample. Section III presents the results, while Section IV concludes. The Model and Sample We embed our key variables in a standard linear empirical growth equation, 1 Where Y is a measure of economic performance as discussed above, is an estimated intercept term, s is a measure of industrial structure as discussed above, x is a vector of control variables discussed below,andare estimated coefficients and is a stochastic error term. As in Bekaert et al. 2006, our SDs of economic growth rates are measured over a 5-year period. As in prior studies of economic growth, the control vector includes the natural logarithm of population, the density of population per square mile of land area, a measure of education and initial median household income. Population is a measure of market size as in Cetorelli and Gambera 2001. It is also similar to the total labor force variable used in Ohuallachain and Satterthwaite 1992 and can be interpreted as measuring urbanization economies. If job-matching occurs more quickly or efficiently in more populous areas, then the estimated coefficient on this variable should be negative another implication of the job-matching hypothesis introduced above. Population density has been found significantly related to several first-moment measures of economic performance, possibly due to scale effects or to superior matching between firms and workers in denser markets Ciccone and Hall, 1996; Andersson et al., 2004; Carlino et al., 2007; Strumsky et al., 2005. If these benefits influence economic stability, as one might expect, then the estimated coefficient on population density should be negative in our model. Education is measured as the percentage of population aged 25 and over who have completed high school, and reflects the accumulated level of human capital. It is similar to measures used in previous studies of economic growth such as Rajan and Zingales 1998, Levine et al. 2000 and Cetorelli and Gambera 2001, with theoretical linkages to average growth rates explored by Teles 2005. A related measure of education has been used in at least one study of growth volatility Bekaert et al., 2006. In addition, education was found to be positively associated with sectoral employment growth in US metropolitan areas by O huallachain and Satterthwaite 1992. If education contributes to economic stability as well, its estimated coefficient in our regressions should be negative. Initial median household income can reflect a convergence effect in first-moment measures of economic performance, as noted by Barro and Sala-i-Martin 1992. The same logic would not apply to second-moment measures of economic performance, rendering the sign and significance of the estimated coefficient on this variable an open empirical question. However, a similar variable initial per capita GDP has been used in at least one prior study of growth volatility Bekaert et al., 2006. Table 1 summarizes the data. Our sample comprises more than 2000 US nonmetropolitan counties, measuring economic performance during 1991?1995 and structure measures as of 1987. Metropolitan areas are excluded because their borders are generally not coterminous with individual counties, confounding measurement problems for variables drawn from county-level data. Though not reported in the table, the pairwise correlation coefficients between average establishment size and establishments per capita ranged between -0.21 and 0.18, and were just -0.07 in the wholesale sector and 0.07 in the manufacturing sector. These small and highly variable correlations indicate that the two categories of structure variables reflect statistically separate dimensions of industrial structure in our sample. The selection of performance data as of several years following the structure data helps to reduce the likelihood of reverse causality although, common to all empirical growth studies, causality cannot be definitively established. This lag structure also minimizes the potential for endogeneity bias, as the regressors are predetermined. Results Table 2 reports the regression estimates for the SD of real per capita income growth rates, while Table 3 reports estimates for the SD of employment growth rates. As industrial structure is measured in three ways for each of four sectors, each table reports 12 regressions. Due to missing or zero establishment data for a few counties in each sector, the various regressions utilize slightly differing numbers of observations, as reported in the tables. The significance levels are computed from SEs corrected for heteroscedasticity. In Table 2, the various structure measures are statistically significant in eight of the 12 regressions. Per capita income is found to grow more steadily where manufacturing, retail and wholesale establishments employ more workers, or where wholesale establishments are larger as measured by value of annual shipments. These findings are consistent with the turnover hypothesis discussed above. Conversely, steadier growth is seen where wholesale establishments employ fewer workers or in counties with fewer wholesale establishments per capita or more manufacturing establishments per capita. The contrasting estimates for the wholesale sector may reflect nonlinearities in the underlying relationships, an issue beyond the scope of this study. These findings indicate that industrial structure is systematically related to the volatility of income growth rates, in ways that are largely consistent but that do vary somewhat across major sectors. The fit of the equations in Table 2 is modest, with adjusted R2 ranging from 0.3 to nearly 0.5. The control variables are mostly significant at the 0.01 level. Initial median household income is never significant, in contrast to the significance of initial per capita GDP found in several cross-country regressions on consumption growth volatility by Bekaert et al. 2006. Income is found to grow more steadily in more populous counties. Population density and education are found to contribute to higher volatility of per capita income growth rates, though education loses its significance when controlling for wholesale establishments per capita. The sign of the education variable contrasts with that found in cross-country specifications by Bekaert et al.2006. In Table 3, the various structure measures are again statistically significant in eight of the 12 regressions. Employment is seen to grow more steadily where there are more establishments per capita in any of the four sectors, consistent with the job-matching hypothesis. In addition, steadier employment growth occurred where wholesale or service establishments employ more workers, or where retail or service establishments have a larger average dollar volume of business, consistent with the turnover hypothesis. These latter findings indicate that the benefits of job longevity at larger firms more than offset the volatility theoretically predicted by more centralized decision-making, as discussed above. The fit of these equations is less tight than in Table 2, with adjusted R2 around 0.1. Population density is never significant but the other control variables are consistently significant. Employment grows more steadily in more populous counties, where education is higher, or where initial median household income is lower. The population result is consistent with the job-matching hypothesis discussed above, and the education and initial income results match those found in cross-country regressions for consumption growth volatility by Bekaert et al. 2006. As in Table 2, education loses its significance when controlling for wholesale establishments per capita. Conclusion Motivated by prior results suggesting contrasting and important predictions relating industrial structure to economic stability, we have explored empirical linkages between multiple sector-specific structure measures and the volatility of subsequent growth rates in real per capita income and employment. Significant associations were found in two-thirds of the specifications, controlling for a standard set of environmental variables. Overall, the turnover hypothesis was found to dominate the contrasting predictions of inefficient centralized decision-making, as employment and income both tended to grow more steadily where establishments were larger. These findings suggest an offsetting benefit to the first-moment costs of establishment size identified by Shaffer 2002, 2006a, b. The job-matching hypothesis is consistent with steadier growth where more establishments per capita operate, as found for all sectors in the employment regressions and for the manufacturing sector in the income regressions. Contrasting results were found in the income regressions for wholesale establishments measured by employment size and for wholesale establishments per capita Although our multi-year lag structure reduces the likelihood of reverse causality between industrial structure and growth volatility, causality cannot be definitively established, a shortcoming common to all empirical growth studies. Consequently, policy inferences should be drawn with caution, pending additional research on the precise mechanisms underlying the observed patterns.译 文: 产业结构和经济稳定 谢里尔谢弗 经济及金融系电子邮箱: 通过预测产业结构和经济稳定之间的联系,在事先对比结果的启发下,我们提出探索这一重要问题的证据。在符合营业额假设的前提下,我们发现更稳定的就业增长在各行业机构均较大,这意味着一个抵消造福于编制第一时刻由以前的研究中发现的成本。这与工作匹配假说相一致,即就业增长在经营各行业的场所更加稳定。与此相类似,但不太一致的结果也发现关于收入增长的稳定性。 一、引言和背景 经济运行的重要性催生了大量关于影响经济增长的实证因素的文献(见拉詹和辛格勒,1998;莱文等人,突出的例子为2000)。最近的一项研究发现,社区或局部地区往往经历着更快速的收入或就业增长,尤其是在小规模企业(谢弗,2002,2006a,b)。一个单独的研究链,它同时展示了学习增长率波动的重要性,而不仅仅是他们的手段(拉米和拉米,1995;库尔兹,2004;Ismihan,2005;贝卡尔特等,2006)。正是在这方面的几项有关的研究(戴维斯和黑尔蒂旺热,1992;罗布,1995;戴维斯等人,1996)发现,在大公司工作往往比在小企业更持久;而Ilmakunnas等(2005)建议,这类营业额实际上可能是一个更快的生产率增长的原因,一个未开发的含义是就业和收入的波动性可能会导致更高的营业额在规模较小的地方企业中(即营业额假说)。 相反,决策者由于人类的不可靠而导致经济的差异性更加集中地表现在决策的过程中(萨,1991;Sah和斯蒂格利茨,1991;阿尔梅达和费雷拉,2002)。这意味着,在一个企业平均规模较小或企业较多的地方,它的经济可能会更加稳定。一个在预计范围内的类似结果:(一)集中决策过程不太善于管理冲突和成功。(二)分配的冲突损害效率调整(罗德瑞克,1999;阿尔梅达和费雷拉,2002)外生冲击。 基于这些对比的考虑,一个重要的经验问题是,是否建立规模和产业结构等措施可能是系统地与经济表现的二阶矩措施相关。 本文据此提出了初步的证据,关于选择工业结构和地方收入和就业增长率的波动性的相应措施之间的联系。我们使用的三种产业结构措施受到每个部门的广泛尊敬。正如谢弗(2002),我们衡量平均的建立规模,通过员工人数、创造美元的附加值、发货或收据。我们也期待由两个对立因素推动的人均机构。寻找一份新的在某一有很多雇主的部门的工作应该更容易,它导致更多稳定水平的收入和就业增长率(即“就业选配假说”)。但是,其他条件不变,小企业往往会允许更多数量的企业并存,在这种情况下,在小企业就业(如上所述)记录的营业额往往会抵消许多公司更加稳定的利益。我们产业结构的每一个措施都被单独编译为制造业,批发,零售和服务行业。 我们称这些结构措施为经济表现的两个二阶矩措施,即每年的人均实际收入增长率统计处和编制总额的年均增长速度的SD就业这些措施。这个结果导致了两个单独的文献股,经济增长波动的实证协变量和建立规模与其他产业结构措施对宏观经济的影响。我们发现所有规模较大的企业和人均较多的部门都与稳定的就业增长速度相关联,符合营业额和就业选配假设。同样的联系是找到了,但并不带来所有部门人均实际收入增长速度的波动。 下一节介绍了经验模型和样本。第三节介绍结果,而第四部分为结论。 二、模型及样本 我们将关键变量嵌入一个标准的线性增长方程, 1 其中Y是衡量经济表现,如上所述,是一个估计的截距项,S是产业结构衡量标准,因为上面的讨论,X是下面讨论的控制变量向量,是估计系数,是随机误差项。如贝卡尔特等(2006),我们的经济增长率已经被测量了5年的时间。正如之前的经济增长的研究,控制矢量包括人口的自然对数,平均土地面积的人口密度,教育和初始家庭收入中位数的衡量。 人口是市场规模的测量措施在Cetorelli和Gambera(2001)。这也类似于总劳动人口的变量在Ohuallachain和Satterthwaite(1992)的使用,它可作为衡量城市化的经济解释。如果就业选配起来更快或者更有效地发生在人口较多的地区,那么对这个变量的估计系数应为负(另一个上面介绍的就业选配假说的含义)。 人口密度已被发现与经济表现的几个第一时刻措施显著相关,可能是由于规模效应,或企业和工人之间的匹配,优越的密集市场(西科尼和霍尔,1996;安德森等,2004;卡诺等,2007;斯拉姆斯基等,2005)。如果这些利益影响经济稳定,那么人们可能会想到估计人口密度系数应在我们的模型之中。 教育是衡量人口年龄在25岁及以上的完成了高中学业的比例,并反映了人力资本积累水平。它类似于在拉詹和津加莱斯(1998),利文(2000年)和Cetorelli和Gambera(2001)等人先前的研究中经济增长的措施,并以平均增长研究利率理论之间的联系(特莱斯,2005)。 一个关于教育的措施已被用于至少一年的生长波动研究(贝卡尔特等,2006)。此外,教育被认为是与美国大都会区的部门就业的Ohuallachain和Satterthwaite(1992)增长有关。如果教育促进经济稳定良好,其回归系数的估计应该是否定的。 家庭收入中