外国直接投资与经济增长：本地金融市场的角色外文翻译.doc

外国直接投资与经济增长：本地金融市场的角色外文翻译 本科毕业论文外文翻译出 处: Journal?of?International?Economics,2004作 者: Laura?Alfaro?and?Areedam?Chanda 原 文:FDI and Economic Growth: The Role of Local Financial MarketsAbstract The purpose of this paper is to examine the various links among foreign direct investment, financial markets and growth. We model an economy with a continuum of agents indexed by their level of ability. Agents have two choices: they can work for the foreign company in the FDI sector and use their wealth to earn a return or they can choose to undertake entrepreneurial activities, which are subject to a fixed cost. Better financial markets allow agents in the economy to take advantage of knowledge spillovers from FDI. The empirical evidence suggests that FDI plays an important role in contributing to economic growth. However, the level development of local financial markets is crucial for these positive effects to be realized.Introduction The 1990s have been marked by the increasing role of foreign direct investment FDI in total capital flows See Table 1. In 1998, more than half of all private capital flows to developing countries was accounted by FDI. Following the 1980s debt crisis, and recently the 1997 turmoil in the emerging economies, the emphasis among policymakers in developing countries has shifted towards attracting more FDI. Their arguments have been supported by the international institutions and policymakers as well, as is evident in the World Development Report 2000: “Since 1997, when the East Asian crisis began, the world has learned that poorly managed financial liberalization can lead to a protracted economic downturn and a renewed cycle of poverty. But the potential upside of international capital flows is enormous, as the positive contribution of foreign direct investment to boosting productivity in recipient countries demonstrates.” This report specifically emphasizes the policies and reforms developing countries can pursue to attract more FDI The rationale for such increased efforts to attract more FDI stems from the belief that FDI has several positive effects which include productivity gains, technology transfers, the introduction of new processes to the domestic market, managerial skills and know-how, employee training, international production networks, and access to markets. In addition to these real benefits, its relative stability has also increased the emphasis on FDI among all capital flows. Either by learning-by-observing or learning-by-doing, foreign production may increase domestic productivity and the overall economic growth in the domestic economy. Domestic firms may benefit from accelerated diffusion of new technology if foreign firms introduce new products or processes to the domestic market. In some cases, domestic firms might benefit just from observing these foreign firms Blomstrom and Kokko, 1997. In other cases, technology diffusion might occur from labor turnover as domestic employees move from foreign to domestic firms. These benefits together with the direct capital financing it provides, suggest that FDI can play an important role in modernizing the national economy and promote growth. However, sometimes there tend to be excessive expectations of what FDI can really achieve for a country. While it can contribute to the development efforts of a country, domestic market conditions are crucial in determining not only the quantity but also the quality of FDI. These conditions include ?but are not limited to? the policy environment of the local country, productive assets available, and infrastructure. Among these conditions, we believe that the development of local financial markets in particular can adversely limit the economys ability of taking advantage of such potential FDI spillovers. As McKinnon 1973 stated, the development of capital markets is “necessary and sufficient” to foster the “adoption of best-practice technologies and learning by doing.” In other words, limited access to credit markets restricts entrepreneurial development. If entrepreneurship allows greater assimilation and adoption of best technological practices made available by FDI, then the absence of well developed financial markets limit the potential positive FDI externalities. In this paper we formalize the mechanism through which the trickle down effect of foreign direct investment depends on the extent of the development of the financial sector. It is then shown empirically that this is indeed an important channel via which FDI enhances growth. To the best of our knowledge, there has been no formalization of the interaction between financial markets and FDI spillovers prior to this study. We model an economy populated by agents who are differentiated by their ability level. Agents have two choices. They can simply work for the foreign company in the FDI sector and use their inherited wealth to earn a return. Or they can choose to set up their own firm, which will benefit from a spillover due to foreign direct investment. However, starting a firm requires a setup cost which must be partly financed through borrowing from financial institutions. Due to inefficiencies in the financial sector, the borrowing rate is assumed to be higher than the lending rate. Under this scenario, better developed financial institutions are likely to make it easier for entrepreneurs to set up business. This not only spurs entrepreneurial activity but more importantly, enables entrepreneurs to reap the spillovers from foreign direct investment. This implies that FDI will have effects in the local economy that go beyond the direct increase in capital from abroad. The model provides a benchmark for empirical analysis. We attempt to shed light on the debates of how long-term foreign investment in the form of FDI might impact the host economy, as well as test whether the theoretical predictions hold empirically. Specifically, we examine whether economies that attract FDI are able to grow faster, and whether economies with better-developed financial markets are able to benefit from FDI even more. We find that FDI plays an important role in contributing to economic growth. However, the development level of local markets is crucial for these positive effects to be realized. Economic growth is impacted by FDI even more significantly if the host economy has a sufficiently developed local financial market. We also show that the positive spillovers of FDI on economic growth work through increasing domestic investment in the host economy. Our analysis, that is the development of local financial markets allows entrepreneurship to develop and take advantage of the “potential” FDI spillovers, has important ramifications when one considers the increased role of FDI throughout the world as depicted in the Table 1. While bad financial markets may mean that a country is not in a position to prepare for unregulated short term capital flows, our work suggests that the full benefits of long term stable flows may also not be realized in the absence of well functioning financial markets. The interaction between capital markets and FDI did not receive much attention until recently. In a broader sense the benefits of all types of capital flows and capital market integration have been studied extensively in the literature. Well-integrated inter-regional and international capital markets allow insurance against idiosyncratic shocks, and allow better use of resources Obstfeld 1994. In the standard one-good intertemporal model of trade, countries gain from borrowing or lending abroad when there is a difference between the economys autarky interest rate and the world interest rate. Obstfelds 1994 model shows that international financial integration can lead to higher growth as countries can take advantage of risky higher-yield bonds. In a similar framework of risk-return trade-off Acemoglu and Zilibotti 1997 show that developing countries tend to specialize in safe technologies due to less diversification opportunities. In particular, Tesar and Rowlands 2000 and Tesar and Hulls 2000 work shows that multinationals can allow for greater risk diversification. Several other models, including Saint-Paul 1992, Feeney 1997 show the gains of capital market integration-induced specialization and production efficiency in a theoretical framework. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sorensen and Yosha 1999 test these theoretical predictions and find supporting evidence that risk-sharing, facilitated by favorable legal environments and well-developed financial systems, leads to specialization, which implies higher economic growth. The most basic method of economic integration can be thought of as international trade in goods and ideas, which is shown by Rivera-Batiz and Romer 1991 to have additional potential advantages and growth effects. Grossman and Helpman1991 show that countries may increase their growth rates by interacting with other countries and through knowledge diffusion. As Helpman 1997 states “international trade and direct foreign investment provide opportunities for cross-border learning in the normal course of business, which requires no special effort or investment of resources. This sort of learning applies to manufacturing techniques, organizational methods and market conditions. In either case the acquired knowledge improves domestic productivity.” It can be argued that companies learn more from the experiences of other producers located in the domestic market than from firms located abroad and spillovers might be limited in their geographical reach. While it may seem natural to argue that foreign direct investment can convey greater knowledge spillovers, a countrys capacity to take advantage of these spillovers might be limited by local conditions. While this paper stresses the role of local financial markets, arguably another important factor is the stock of local human capital. Nelson and Phelps1966 presented a model where the rate of growth of total factor productivity is a function of a countrys human capital stock. To the extent that FDI brings with it knowledge spillovers which increases total factor productivity, the stock of human capital should play an important role in realizing the benefits of foreign direct investment. This line of thought is pursued in Borensztein et al 1998. Using a data set of FDI flows from industrialized countries to sixty-nine developing countries, they find that FDI is an important vehicle for the transfer of technology and higher growth. However, they show that the higher productivity is only possible when the host country has a minimum threshold stock of human capital. Likewise, Xu 2000 using a data set of US multinational enterprises MNEs finds that a country needs to reach a minimum human capital threshold level in order to benefit from the technology transfer of US MNEs, and that most LDCs do not meet this threshold requirement. However to the best of our knowledge, there has been no attempt at investigating the role of financial markets in influencing the effects of FDI on growth. The interaction between financial markets and growth itself has lately received a lot of attention. As described above, the theoretical framework has been well-established in the literature, with supporting evidence in the empirical studies. King and Levine1993a,b model how better financial systems improve the probability of successful innovation and thereby accelerate growth and provide empirical evidence suggesting that financial systems are important for productivity growth and development. Analyzing the roles of different types of financial institutions Levine and Zervos1998 show that stock markets and banks provide different services, but both stock market liquidity and banking development positively predict growth, capital accumulation and productivity improvements. At the country level, Beck, Levine and Loayza 2000a, 2000b once again empirically show the positive effects of financial development on growth, and that these positive effects work through total factor productivity. At the industry level, Rajan and Zingales 1998 find that the state of financial development reduces the cost of external finance to firms, thereby promoting growth. Combining industry and country level, Wurgler 2000 shows that even if financial development does not lead to higher levels of investment, it seems to allocate the existing investment better and hence causing economic growth. Finally, as mentioned above, Kalemli-Ozcan et al 1999 focus on the channel through which these growth effects of financial markets can be possible and provide evidence that more integrated capital markets enhance specialization in production. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. A benchmark model is developed in Section2, and is used to motivate the empirical testing. The data is defined in Section 3, the empirical results are discussed in Section 4, and Section 5 concludes.译文:外国直接投资与经济增长:本地金融市场的角色摘 要 本文的目的是检查金融市场在外国直接投资和经济增长中扮演的角色。我们将模拟经济可持续的能力水平的代理索引。代理有两种选择:他们能够在外国公司的外国直接投资部门工作和使用他们的财货进行投资或者他们可以用固定成本选择进行创业活动。更好的金融市场允许代理商利用FDI知识的溢出。实证结果表明,外国直接投资中发挥了促进经济增长的重要的作用。然而,东道国本地金融市场的发展水平对这些的积极影响也会实现的。文献介绍 20世纪90年代外国直接投资FDI在总资本流动中的作用越来越大见表一。1998年,超过一半的私人资本流动到发展中国家通过外国直接投资。由于在20世纪80年代的债务危机,和最近1997年经历风暴的新兴市场,导致发展中国家的政策制定者倾向于转向吸引更多的外国直接投资。他们的论据有国际机构和决策者支持。并且出现在世界发展报告2000:“自1997年以来,东亚洲金融危机开始时,世界已经认识到缺乏管理金融自由化会导致长时间的经济下滑和更新的周期的的缓慢,但同时潜在价值上的国际资本流动是巨大的, 外国直接投资流入国家增加生产率所作出的贡献可以证明这一点。”这份报告特别强调发展中国家是追求以吸引更多的外国直接投资政策和改革。 增加吸引更多的外国直接投资的理论来源于认为外国直接投资有一些积极的影响包括对生产率,技术转让、引进生产工艺进入国内市场,管理技能和技能,员工培训、国际生产网络和市场准入。此外真正的益处是增加了FDI所有的资本流动相对稳定性。learning-by-observing或learning-by-doing可以通过提高我们国内生产率和整体经济增长。如果外国公司引进新产品进入国内市场的过程中,则国内公司加速发展可能得益于新技术传播。有时候,国内公司可能受益只是通过观察这些外国企业Blomstrom和Kokko,1997。在另外一些情况,技术扩散可能从国内员工转移和从外国对国内公司的劳动周转率发生。它提供了这些好处连同直接融资,表明外国直接投资在现代化国民经济和刺激经济增长起到了重要的作用。 然而,有时倾向于过度预期的外国直接投资在一个国家能真正完成什么?同时,它可以为一个国家的发展做出的努力,国内市场是至关重要的条件决定,不仅是数量,而且还有质量的FDI。这些条件包括本地政策环境,生产性资产可和基础设施。 在这些情况下,我们相信发展本地金融市场尤其是利用这种潜在的外国直接投资的溢出效应不会限制经济。就像麦金农1973说,资本市场的发展是“充分必要”用以支持“采用优于传统技术。”换句话说,有限的管道会制约创业信贷市场。如果创业允许更大的同化和采用最好的免费工艺通过外国投资的实践,却没有发达的金融市场的潜在积极的外国直接投资限制问题。在本文中,我们正式宣布,外国直接投资的程度取决于金融领域的发展。然后显示,这确实是提高外商直接投资的增长重要渠道。据我们所知,通过以前的研究认为还没有形式化的金融市场和外国直接投资是具有相互作用的。 我们具有经济密集的鉴别代理商的能力水平。代理人拥有两个选择。他们可以很容易的工作在外国直接投资的部门的外国公司和使用他们的财富继承获得回报,或者他们可以选择建立了自己的公司, 这都将有利于外国直接投资的溢出。然而,开始一个公司需要通过借鉴金融机构借前置成本,因为金融效率低下,所以借贷利率高于贷款利率。在这种情况下,发展好点的金融机构更容易为企业家建立业务。这不仅刺激创业活动,而且更重要的是,使企业家获得了国外直接投资的溢出。这意味着,FDI对国内经济的影响超越了那些直接增加的从国外流入的资金的作用。 该模型提供了实证分析基准。我们试图阐明外商投资项目的外国直接投资的形式如何影响当地经济,同时进行理论预测是否持有进行了实证分析。明确的,我们探讨吸引外商直接投资是否能更快地使经济增长,金融市场更好的发展能否受益于外国直接投资,甚至更多。 我们发现外国直接投资促进经济增长发挥了重要的作用。然而,当地市场的发展水平是至关重要的,这样这些积极作用才会实现。假如当地的有一个足够发达的金融市场,那么FDI对经济增长的影响更多。我们还发现,外国直接投资对经济增长的溢出效应有积极的作用通过增加国内投资。我们的分析,发展中本地金融市场对创业发展和利用“潜在”FDI溢出增加的影响具有重要作用,当考虑到全球各地的外国直接投资中所描绘的表1。然而坏的金融市场可能意味着一个国家不能立即准备不受管制的短期资金流动,我们的研究表明在缺乏机能良好的金融市场下,所有的长期稳定的流动效益也不会实现的。 国际资本和外国直接投资在市场之间的相互作用没有得到重视直到最近才有了变化。在更广泛的意义上,所有类型的资本流动