印度零售业,把超市请进印度.doc

Retailing in India印度零售业Send for the supermarketers把超市请进印度Opening up Indias chaotic, underdeveloped retailing industry to foreign supermarket chains would bring many benefits 如果混乱且不发达的印度零售业向外国连锁超市打开大门，很多利好将会随之而来AT first sight the Easy Day store in Gurgaon on the outskirts of Delhi seems to be a supermarket like any in the developed world. On a sunny Saturday morning housewives and couples with children push their trolleys down the long, straight aisles, choosing from well-stocked shelves that offer Western brands such as Coca-Cola and Tropicana fruit juice as well as Thums Up and Real, two Indian counterparts. At lunchtime the shop suddenly empties. It is the day of the South Africa v India match in the cricket World Cup (which India later went on to win). Outside the shop a banner wishes the India team good luck.第一眼看到位于德里近郊古尔冈的Easy Day商店，让人感觉和发达国家的超市并无两样。周六阳光明媚的早晨，家庭主妇和三口之家纷纷推着手推车沿着笔直的通道逛街，挑选着商品，提供西方品牌的货架琳琅满目，比方说可口可乐、纯果乐果汁以及Thums Up和Real这两家印度品牌的商品。午餐时间，商店里的人突然都走光了。今天有板球世界杯比赛：南非队对印度队（印度队晚些时候赢得了比赛）。店外挂着一个祝印度队好运的横幅。For the managers of the Easy Day store chain, adapting their outlets to the plethora of local rules across the Indian subcontinent, the more than 20 officially recognised languages, 14 main types of cuisine, three main religions and countless religious and ethnic festivals in this most heterogeneous of countriesin which love of cricket is one of the few constantsis a piece of cake compared with the other challenges they face. Indias “organised” retailers (ie, chains of stores, as opposed to independent, family-run shops) have to operate in the most supermarket-hostile environment among big economies in the world. The obstacles they are confronted with range from complex and sometimes nonsensical regulation to pot-holed roads, inadequate cold-storage facilities and sky-high prices for property.印度是世界上人口成分最复杂的国家，它有超过20种官方认可语言，14种主要烹饪方式，3个大宗教以及数不清的宗教和民族节日，人们对板球的热爱是为数不多的常态，对于Easy Day连锁店的经理来说，让自己的商店适应印度次大陆上过多的地方规矩，比起他们面对的其他挑战这是小菜一碟。印度“有组织的”零售商们（比方说：连锁店，也就是个体户和家庭商店的对立面）不得不跻身到世界大经济体下最“反对超市”的环境中运营。从复杂甚至有时无理规定到坑坑洼洼的道路，从冷藏设备缺乏到天价的物业管理费，到处都是他们经营商店的障碍。No wonder then that a shop like Gurgaons Easy Day is still a rarity in India. Chain stores account for only 7% of the countrys $435 billion retailing business, a far lower proportion than in other countries, including Indias BRIC peers (see chart). Most Indians do their shopping at the millions of kirana shops, small independent outfits that are often not much more than a hole in the wall, manned by the owner and maybe a relative, or from handcart hawkers and street vendors. These microbusinesses sell a limited range of goods, in tiny quantities. They are far too small to negotiate good deals with their wholesalers, who are themselves a pretty inefficient bunch. But the majority of Indians, especially in rural areas, shop with themor send their servants to shopbecause kiranas give them credit and are prepared to deliver even the smallest order to their homes. And because they often do not have any choice.难怪像古尔冈Easy Day一样的商店在印度依然少见。连锁商店只占印度零售销售量4350亿美元的7%，包括印度在内的金砖四国（见图表）在内，这一比例远逊于在其他国家所占的比重。大多数印度人找遍地都是的吉拉纳（kirana）购物，这是一种个人经营的店，店面通常不会太大，由店主自己或者亲戚经营，或者是以手推车和街头小贩的方式经营。这些小商贩经营的商品数量少，并且经营范围小。他们的规模实在是太小了以至于不必与效率极其低下的批发商们签供货协议。但是大多数的印度人，尤其是在农村地区，都与吉拉那（kirana）们交易，或者是派自己的仆人去找吉拉那（kirana）买东西，这是因为吉拉那（kirana）们信誉良好，并且再小的订单也会送货上门。还有一个原因就是：印度人通常没有别的店面可选。Indian policymakers have talked about reforming the retail business for the past two decades, with little to show for it. The most obvious, but most politically sensitive, reform would be to scrap the ban on foreign direct investment (FDI) by multi-brand supermarket chains such as Americas Walmart and Frances Carrefour. (Single-brand retailers such as Nike or Reebok can own a 51% stake in their Indian outlets and multi-brand retailers can open wholesale warehouses, as long as they do not sell directly to consumers.)在过去的二十年间，印度当局一直在讨论零售业改革的问题，但是至今仍没有任何动作。引入像美国沃玛特（Walmart）和法国家乐福（Carrefour）一类的多品牌连锁超市，这将废除禁止外国直接投资（FDI）的禁令，这种改革是最明显的，然而也是高度政治敏感的。（耐克和锐步之类的独立品牌占有印度商品股份的51%，只要多品牌零售商不把产品直接卖给消费者，他们甚至可以打开批发仓库售货）Ending the ban is fiercely opposed by the millions of kirana owners and their dependents, who are an important electoral constituency of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party. However, the party is not in power at the moment and the ruling Congress party did make encouraging noises by publishing a detailed discussion paper on the benefits of liberalisation last summer. It noted, for example, that heavy investment by big supermarket chains may be the best way to create an efficient “chill chain” in India, to keep food fresh from the farmers field to the shoppers basket, and thus cut the terrible waste of food caused by the absence of such facilities: perhaps a quarter or more of fruit and vegetables is lost, compared with a tenth or less in countries with better cold storage and transport. 数以百万计的吉拉那（kirana）店主和他们的依赖者都强烈反对废除这一禁令，而这些依赖者们又是印度人民党（Bharatiya Janata Party）的重要选民。然而现在印度人民党（Bharatiya Janata Party）并没有执政，去年夏天，执政党国大党（Congress party）出版了关于“从自由化获利”的详细讨论文件，以此来推动零售业的改革。例如，这个文件讨论了大型连锁超市的大量投资可能是在印度创造有效“冷藏连锁”的最佳方法，这样食物就能在从农民土地到消费者篮子的过程中保持新鲜，这样一来就可以减少由于冷藏设备短缺造成的大量浪费：这可能会节省1/4甚至更多的水果和蔬菜，而拥有更好冷库和冷藏运输的国家只会浪费1/10甚至更少。Just before the budget（预算费n.，安排v.低廉的a.） in February, the government published its annual Economic Survey, which proposed a gradual opening, letting foreigners start by setting up multi-brand stores in big cities. Yet the finance minister shot down the proposal, refusing to include it in his budget.就在二月份预算出来之前，政府公布了年度经济调查，在调查中政府提出要逐步开放市场，让外国人能在大城市里开办多品牌商店。然而财政部长否定了这一提议，并拒绝把它放入预算之中。While the multinationals（跨国公司） continue to wait for fuller access, Walmart is expanding（扩大） its joint venture with Bharti, an Indian conglomerate（聚集物，企业集团）, which provides wholesaling（批发） and logisticsincluding to Bhartis Easy Day chain. Walmart may be on the verge of（接近于，将要） forming another alliance（联盟）, with Future Group, the Mumbai-based owner of Pantaloon Retail, though the behemoth from Bentonville refuses to confirm reports that the two firms are talking.就在跨国公司们继续等待更宽裕的准入准则时，沃尔玛（Walmart）通过与印度集团企业巴迪（Bharti）成为合作伙伴来进行扩张，巴迪（Bharti）向包括Easy Day连锁店在内的商店提供批发和后期服务。虽然这个来自本顿维尔（Bentonville）的庞然大物1拒绝承认两个公司正在谈判，但是沃尔玛很可坑可能即将与未来集团（Future Group）结成另一同盟，未来集团（Future Group）是孟买公司Pantaloon Retail旗下的集团。Doug McMillon, the chief executive of Walmarts international division, is tireless in arguing the case for opening Indian retailing to foreign supermarket firms. He says that Walmart would invest heavily in shops, create jobs, plough profits back into food-supply and cold-storage infrastructure（基础设施） and help to tame food inflation（通货膨胀） by keeping prices for staple foods low. He cites the example of Mexico, which allowed FDI in multi-brand retail（众多零售品牌） in 1991 after a heated debate on whether the move would bankrupt（破产的，使破产） small mom-and-pop shops. Twenty years and many giant superstores later, such small outlets still have about half of the countrys retail market. 沃尔玛（Walmart）国际业务主管道格麦克米兰（Doug McMillon）为向外国超市公司打开印度市场的案例做着不遗余力的解释。他说：沃尔玛（Walmart）会大量注资，开商店、创造就业机会，所获利润回馈食物供给和冷藏基础设施，还会通过保持主食低价格来遏止食品价格上涨。他举出了墨西哥的例子，经历了关于开放投资会不会导致小型夫妻商店关门的激烈讨论后，墨西哥在1991年向外国直接投资（FDI）开放了多品牌零售业。经过20年和许多大超市的入驻，这些小店仍然占有国家零售市场的20%。Given Indias strong growth prospects, the chances are that the kirana shops would be able to hold on to an even higher share（高占有率）. Technopak, a consultancy, reckons（认为，判断） that Indias retail market will nearly double to an annual turnover of $850 billion by 2020. Assuming a gradual liberalization（自由化）, about 20% of the market then will be controlled by organized retail, predicts Technopak, leaving 80% still in the hands of the micro businesses. 考虑到印度强劲的发展前景，吉拉那（kirana）甚至可能占有更高的市场份额。据咨询公司Technopak估计：印度的零售市场的年利润可能在2020年翻一番，达到8500亿美元。假设印度市场逐渐的自由化，Technopak预测，大约20%的市场将被有组织的零售商掌握，而余下的80%仍然被小经济体占据。Foreign supermarkets will not have an easy ride if India does lift the restrictions（限制） on their entry（进入权）. Besides such things as the dreadful roads and expensive land, they will have to cope with the requirement in some states to buy from a central market rather than directly from farmers. Then there are the complexities（错综复杂的事物） of state taxation（联邦税收）: often there are levies（征税） on moving goods out of, as well as into, a state, or even ones on moving them within a state. 如果印度不取消市场准入限制，那么外国超市就不能轻松入场。除了道路泥泞和土地昂贵的问题，在某些邦2他们还要应付从中心市场而不是直接从农民手里购买土地。之后是复杂的邦税：运货进出邦要求的税率不同，甚至同一个邦内运货税率也会有不同。A history of failure, and a success一部失败史，一件成功事Given these challenges it is not surprising that Indian entrepreneurs have had so little success in opening supermarket chains so far. Maybe the most spectacular failure was that of Subhiksha, a discount retailer（折扣零售店）. It began operations in 1997 and expanded to 1,600 stores thanks to the exuberance of its founder, who took on heaps （堆积）of debt（负债）. It was closed in 2009 amid accusations（指控） of mismanagement and fraud.考量到困难重重，无怪乎印度企业家在开拓连锁超市路上成功者寥寥可数。最壮观的失败可能是折扣零售商Subhiksha的失败了。这家零售商在1997年开始运营，虽然创始人负债累累，但是由于他们丰厚的家底还是把商店拓展到了1600家。2009年，Sub