学位论文封面文摘目录20100221.doc

中国社会科学院研究生院 博士学位论文企业的最优技术进步路径刘小鲁导师姓名及职称：左大培 研究员系 别：经济系 专 业：西方经济学研 究 方 向：微观经济理论2009年4月 内容简介：本文主旨在于在动态最优化分析框架下讨论厂商的最优技术进步路径。在本文的分析中，企业技术进步行为被具体化为产品质量的提升，并被分解为两个层次的最优化问题。第一个层次对应于技术进步成本的最小化，即为了实现特定的技术进步目标，厂商可以在自主研发与技术引进之间选择两者的最优组合比例，以达到技术进步方式上的有效性。第二个层次的最优化对应于厂商的市场利润最大化，即厂商通过对技术进步目标的选择来获取尽可能多的市场利润。这两个层次的最优化问题相结合，便构成了对厂商最优技术进步路径选择的完整刻画。本文分析了两种情形下，厂商最优技术进步方式的变化路径。在第一种情形下，厂商遵循最优化分析的决策方式，其研发能力能够随厂商技术进步活动的展开而逐步提升，因此厂商的技术进步决策具有长期的动态效应。此时，在一定条件下，厂商的技术进步路径将呈现出两个不同的阶段：在第一个阶段内，厂商仅仅通过技术引进来实现技术进步；在第二个阶段，厂商将通过自主研发和技术引进的某种最优组合来实现技术进步。实际的案例分析也支持了该结论。在第二种情况下，本文在假定企业研发能力不变的前提下对包含多个厂商的技术进步博弈进行了讨论。分析表明，无论是在同质厂商假设还是在异质厂商假设下，尽管各个厂商的产品质量都呈现出递增趋势，但是递增速度逐渐减缓，即各产品阶段上技术进步的总体目标数量（产品质量提升幅度）逐渐下降。这使得最优自主研发项目数量也同样呈现出递减趋势。但是，由于最优自主研发项目数量的递减速度相对较慢，因此形成了自主研发比重向某正数值递增收敛的趋势。此外，本文还对异质性厂商博弈进行了区分，以便分析技术进步是否存在收敛性。一种情形表现在厂商拥有相同的技术研发能力，但单个产品阶段上的最大产品质量提升幅度存在差异。这种技术进步幅度上限约束的差别使得拥有较高技术进步上限的厂商有更强的动机提升产品质量，因而厂商间的技术发展并不存在收敛趋势。另一种厂商异质性表现在技术研发能力上的差异，这进一步造成了厂商自主研发的成本差异。但是，对厂商最优技术进步路径的求解结果表明，这种异质性并不能保证具有较低研发成本的厂商始终有更强的动机改善产品质量：研发成本较高的厂商在产业发展末期会有一个产品质量上的相对赶超过程。当厂商技术进步能力存在差异时，专利保护强度的变化对各厂商自主研发强度的影响方向也是不确定的。 关键词：技术进步 自主研发 技术引进 最优技术进步路径 动态最优化Abstracts: This paper analyzes firms optimal technology progressing trajectory under dynamic optimizing. In this paper, technology progressing is represented by the improvement of product quality and is divided into two elementary decision-making problems. One is cost minimization, which requires firms to find an optimal combination of researching and technology importing in order to reach specific technology levels efficiently. Another problem is profit maximization. That is, firms have to choose proper product quality dynamically to maximize its profit. Solutions to these two problems, once combined together, form a complete description of firms decision on technology progressing.This paper considers technology progressing in two situations. Firstly, a firm is assumed to make decisions with optimizing and it is assumed that its capability of innovation can accumulate as it makes efforts on technology progressing, which implies the existence of long-term effects in firms dynamic choices. Under certain conditions, the optimal trajectory of technology progressing consists of two stages which is further examined by case studies. In the first stage, the firm employs technology importing as the only way of making technology progress, while in the second stage, researching also becomes feasible.In the second situation, firms are postulated to have constant innovating capabilities and, all firms make strategic decisions with considerations of each others reaction. Under such conditions, the analysis shows that，either firms are homogeneous or not, their product quality increases by time with decreasing speed. That is, the amount of quality improvement in each period decreases, which further leads to decreasing numbers of new researching projects. However, since the former variance decreases faster, the proportion of researching with respect to aggregate technology progressing projects increasingly converges to a positive value. Moreover, this paper discusses games between heterogeneous firms in different situations. In one situation, firms are the same in all aspects but the maximum quality improvement they can make in each period. This difference gives the firm with higher constraint stronger incentive to improving its product quality and therefore, no technology convergence happens. In another situation, firms have different capabilities of researching. But this difference does not necessarily enlarge technology gaps between firms, since the low-capability-firm will progress relatively faster near the end of the game. The effects of patent protecting also turn out to be ambiguous. Key Words: technology progressing; R&D; technology importing; optimal trajectory of technology progressing; dynamic optimization目录1. 引言11.1 文献综述11.1.1 自主研发与技术引进：国内的讨论21.1.2 企业的最优R&D策略31.1.2-1最优创新时点模型31.1.2-2 最优研发投入模型71.1.2-3 Takeo Nakao的动态R&D模型111.1.2-4 R&D竞争基础上的拓展性文献131.1.3 增长理论中的技术进步181.1.3-1 内生增长理论中的技术进步181.1.3-2 技术进步与增长的收敛201.1.4 评论211.2 本文的分析思路与结构241.2.1 本文的分析思路241.2.2 本文的结构安排262. 厂商的动态最优技术进步路径：问题的总体描述282.1 基本的模型设定292.2 对厂商最优技术进步路径决策问题的分解333. 研发经验的积累与最优技术进步413.1 外生技术进步路径与最优技术进步方式423.2 内生化分析：技术进步路径的选择与最优技术进步方式463.2.1 技术进步目标与技术进步方式的双重最优化463.2.2 对最优解的讨论493. 3 案例分析503.3.1 案例一：华为的技术进步之路513.3.2 案例二：中国汽车产业的技术进步路径563.3.3 讨论与小结584. 厂商的最优技术进步路径：博弈分析594.1 技术进步成本函数的性质604.1.1 技术进步中的成本最小化604.1.2 技术进步幅度范围的选择与成本函数的性质634.2 厂商的最优技术进步路径664.3 比较静态分析与结论765. 讨论与拓展分析935.1 联合利润最大化下厂商的最优技术进步路径935.2 资金约束985.3 产业状况与模型的整合1005.4 对技术引进成本函数的讨论1016. 非对称情形下厂商