英国推出欧盟将拖累全球经济.doc

Brexit Is Locking In the Forces That Already Haunt the Global Economy英国退欧将如何拖累全球经济Sometimes, something bad happens, and it creates huge financial market swings and long-lasting economic ripples. The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks were an example, as was the 2011 Japanese nuclear disaster.有时候会有糟糕的事情发生，引发巨大的金融市场震荡和持久的经济波动。“911”恐怖袭击是一例，2011年日本核泄露灾难也是一例。But the so-called Brexit is different.但英国退出欧盟并不一样。The immediate financial downturn after Britain voted Thursday to leave the European Union resembles the fallout from those disasters. But the other events were largely disconnected from the broader economic currents of their time. They were one-off events, at least in terms of their economic ramifications.英国于上周四投票决定脱欧后，金融市场立即出现滑坡，与上述灾难性事件的后果颇为类似。但上述其他事件基本与当时更大范围内的经济动态无关。它们是孤立事件，至少就其经济影响而言是这样。What makes Brexit so concerning is that it accentuates and deepens global forces that have been building for years. So far, governments have been unable to limit any of it. And those forces have self-reinforcing, vicious-cycle dimensions that make it a particularly perilous time for the global economy, even though the type of full-scale panic that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 looks unlikely.英国脱欧之所以如此令人担忧，是因为它让多年来一直在集聚的全球性力量得到了突显和增强。到目前为止，各国政府还无法遏制这些力量。而且它们具有自我强化、恶性循环的特点，让全球经济面临着极度危险的时刻，尽管2008年雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产引发的那种全面恐慌似乎不太可能出现。Britain accounts for less than 4 percent of world G.D.P. Most people on Earth dont really have a rooting interest in the exact details of the nations trade relationship with the rest of Europe. But its decision to leave the European Union is making more powerful six interrelated forces that already weigh on the global economy:英国的GDP占世界经济总量的4%。它和欧洲其他国家之间的贸易关系的具体细节，并不会影响世界上大多数人的根本利益。但它脱离欧盟的决定，会让已经在拖累全球经济的六股相关力量变得更加强大。Low inflation There is a glut of global commodities, particularly oil. There is a glut of labor, with elevated unemployment in much of the world. Inflation has been persistently below the 2 percent mark that major central banks aim for, and shows little sign of rising.低通胀率  大宗商品，尤其是石油，在全球范围内存在供过于求的情况。由于世界上很多地方的失业率居高不下，劳动力也存在供过于求的情况。通胀率持续徘徊在各主要央行设定的2%的目标以下，几乎没有回升的迹象。And since the Brexit decision, markets are signaling that those forces have become even more energized.而且自从英国决定脱欧后，市场正在发出这些力量已经变得愈发活跃的信号。The price of oil fell 7.5 percent from Thursday to Mondays close, despite little reason to think that the British referendum will cause any major changes in, for example, the supply of oil from oil reserves that the nation controls.截至周一收市，石油价格较上周四下跌了7.5%，尽管没理由认为英国的这场公投会让石油市场发生任何重大变化，譬如影响由英国控制的石油储备的供应量。And bond markets are priced at levels that imply the years ahead will have lower inflation that was priced in before the Brexit news. While high inflation is often seen as the greater threat, in the last few years economists have viewed too-low inflation which can discourage spending and investment and make debts more onerous as the more pressing concern. In the United States, bond market prices imply that investors now expect annual inflation of 1.37 percent a year through 2026, down from 1.55 percent on Thursday before the votes results, a drop of 0.18 of a percentage point; in Germany, the drop was 0.13 of a point and in Japan 0.10 of a point. (The one exception: Britain itself, which will almost certainly see much higher inflation in the coming years because of a drop in its currency.另外，债券市场的价格水平表明，与英国脱欧的消息传出前相比，对未来几年的通胀预期变得更低了。虽然高通胀率常常被视为更大的威胁，但过去数年间，经济学家一直把过低的通胀率会妨碍消费和投资，并让债务负担变得愈发沉重看作更加紧迫的问题。在美国，债券市场价格显示，投资者目前预计，截至2026年的年均通胀率为1.37%，与周四公投结果出炉前的1.55%相比，下滑了0.18个百分点；德国的相应数字下滑了0.13个百分点，日本的数字则下滑了0.1个百分点。（英国本身是唯一的例外，由于英镑贬值，其通胀率在未来几年里几乎肯定会大幅上升。）Strong dollar The United States dollar has been on a tear. The dollar index, measuring its value against six other major currencies, is up more than 20 percent in the last two years.强势美元; 美元一直在升值。用以衡量其相对于另外六种主要货币的价值的美元指数在过去两年里涨了20%以上。Some of this reflects good health: The United States economy is reasonably strong, with steady growth since 2009 and a 4.7 percent unemployment rate. That has led the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates once and contemplate further moves.一方面，这在某种程度上是美国大好局面的反映：美国经济相当强劲，自2009年以来稳步增长，失业率仅为4.7%。基于这种态势，美联储(Federal Reserve)已经加了一次息，而且还在考虑进一步加息。Some of the dollar rally reflects a more negative global outlook. The economies of Europe, Japan and many emerging markets have remained exceptionally weak, making the United States look comparatively fantastic. Factor in the United States traditional role as the beacon of stability in turbulent times, and American assets look more attractive than their underlying economics would suggest.另一方面，美元的反弹折射出更加悲观的全球经济前景。欧洲、日本以及很多新兴市场的经济仍然异常疲弱，相比之下，美国取得的成绩相当惊人。美国在动荡时期一向发挥着一种稳定信心的作用，因此美国资产比其经济基本面所暗示的更有吸引力。Most worrisome is that there are some feedback loops between the strong dollar and economic weakness abroad. Many international companies, especially in China and emerging markets, owe debt in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes their debts more onerous and creates spillover economic weakness. And the stronger dollar is undermining American exporters, slowing growth in the United States.最令人担忧的是，强势美元和疲软的海外经济之间存在某种反馈环。许多跨国公司，尤其是中国和新兴市场上的跨国公司，都以美元举债。当美元变得愈发强势时，它们的债务负担就变得愈发沉重，从而造成经济疲软的溢出效应。此外，较为强势的美元正在损害美国出口商的利益，并导致美国经济增长放缓。Brexit is only accentuating this. The dollar index is up 3 percent since Thursday, most significantly because of the collapse in value of the British pound, but it is also up against the euro and the yen.英国脱欧只会让这种状况更加突出。自从上周四以来，美元指数已经上涨了3%，最主要的原因是英镑暴跌，但美元兑欧元和日元的汇率也有所上涨。Impotent Monetary policy The worlds central banks are well aware of these forces, of course, and are trying to combat them. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are in the middle of huge programs to try to pump money into their financial systems by buying assets. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have been delaying interest rate increases in hopes of achieving higher inflation and more solid growth.无力的货币政策  各国央行当然对这些力量非常清楚，正竭力对抗它们。欧洲中央银行(European Central Bank)和日本央行(The Bank of Japan)都在推进大规模的计划，试图以购买资产的方式为自己的金融体系注入资金。美联储和英格兰银行(Bank of England)已经推迟了加息日程，希望看到更高的通胀率和更稳健的经济增长。So far it hasnt been enough to get inflation persistently up to 2 percent or achieve sustained strong growth. And it is an open question if more of the same will change anything, particularly given that the economic challenges emanating from Britain are more because of existential questions of national identity than because of a garden-variety business slowdown.迄今为止，这些举措还不足以让通胀率稳定在2%，或者带来持续的强劲增长。目前尚不清楚，更多同类举措的出炉，能否让局面发生变化，尤其是考虑到以英国为源头的经济挑战主要是源于国民身份的存在问题，而非普通的商业放缓。Nonetheless, in the aftermath of Brexit, analysts and financial markets are now pricing in even slower interest rate increases for the Fed and the Bank of England, and a real possibility of yet more easing programs by the E.C.B. and the Bank of Japan.不过，分析人士和金融市场预计，英国脱欧之后，美联储和英格兰银行会进一步放慢加息步伐，欧洲中央银行和日本央行则极有可能推出更多宽松计划。Low interest rates Remember back in December when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates? That day, 10-year Treasury bonds were yielding 2.3 percent. Those bonds had fallen to 1.74 percent by Thursday (the Fed controls short-term interest rates directly, but longer-term rates are set in the open market).低利率; 还记得吗，美联储在去年12月加了一次息。当天，10年期国债收益率为2.3。截至上周四，该国债品种的收益率跌到了1.74%（美联储直接控制短期利率，但长期利率是在公开市场上确定的。）In the two trading days since the Brexit vote, that rate has fallen to 1.44 percent. Other bond markets, including across Europe and in Britain itself, have also experienced falling longer-term rates. Germany, Switzerland and several other European countries even have negative long-term interest rates, meaning a person who buys a bond and holds on to it will lose money.在英国举行脱欧公投后的两个交易日里，10年期国债利率已经跌至1.44%。在其他债券市场上包括欧洲各国和英国自身的市场长期利率同样遭遇了下挫。德国、瑞士和其他几个欧洲国家的长期利率甚至是负数，这意味着买入并持有债券的人会赔钱。Thats very much related to the decline in investors expectations for lower inflation and more central bank activism. But it may also reflect a “fear premium” as investors throw money into anything that seems safe even if it means they are guaranteed to lose money.这和投资者预计通胀率会变得更低，央行会推出更多积极的货币政策举措有很大关系。但或许也表明了“恐惧溢价”的存在，投资者会把资金投向任何看似安全的资产，即便肯定要亏钱也在所不惜。Weak growth This is the underlying story behind all of these other market currents. Europe is only now returning to its 2007 level of economic output; Japans growth is so low it is constantly bouncing in and out of recession status. In developing markets, Brazil is in recession and China is slowing. Britain and the United States are doing better, but only by the diminished global standards of the 21st century.增长疲弱; 这是隐藏在前述所有市场动态背后的基本情况。欧洲的经济总量目前已经回到了2007年的水平；日本的增长极其缓慢，以至于一直挣扎在衰退边缘。再看发展中国家，巴西已经步入衰退，中国的增长也在放缓。英国和美国的情况好一些，但只是以在21世纪有所降低的全球标准来衡量。You can have endless debates about the underlying causes. Is this the inevitable result of a lull in productivity growth, a result of bad policy or bad luck, or some mix? Either way, the reality is that the global economy seems locked into lower growth than had been the norm in the decades before 2007.至于其根本原因，可以引发无穷无尽的讨论。这是生产力增长势头停滞带来的必然结果吗，还是因为政策糟糕或者运气不佳，抑或各种原因兼而有之？不管怎样，当前的现实是，全球经济增速似乎只能低于2007年之前10年的常规速度。Britains E.U. vote raises the risk of further dragging down that growth rate, particularly if there is a prolonged period of uncertainty around the countrys fate or a permanent breakdown in the trade ties that make an economy richer.英国的脱欧投票有可能进一步拖累全球经济增长，如果英国的命运长期悬而不决，或者可以让经济体变得更加富裕的经贸关系遭到永久破坏，那么这种可能性就会大大上升。Political instability All of this is creating a toxic political environment in much of the advanced world, driving greater polarization and the flocking of voters to candidates outside the mainstream.政治不稳定; 所有这些都会导致许多发达国家政治环境的恶化，造成更为严重的两极分化，并让选民纷纷拥戴非主流的候选人。Brexit is the most recent example, supported as it was by Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson. The rise of right-wing nationalist parties in Continental Europe is another p