深论文圳杯(英文).docVIP

Abstract This paper presents the population size and structure as well as the medical bed demands in Shenzhen and every district, by using the MATLAB software and the grey dynamic model. Meanwhile, through the search of children pneumonia and cerebrovascular diseases, we establish elementary function to predict forecast the bed demands in medical institutions of different types.Regarding question 1, as we know the population of Shenzhen is mainly made up of the resident and non-resident population. And the resident population in Shenzhen in the future ten years is firstly forecasted through using the MATLAB software for polynomial fitting. Considering that the non-population is influenced by many factors, we regard the dynamic flow of the urban population as a grey system, and then we applied Grey Dynamic Model1 to forecast the future development trend of the floating populationFurthermore, according to the demographic data given in the annexes , the population structure is divided to three parts, under 14 years old as children, from 14 years old to 60 years old as middle age, over 60 years old as the old. matlab，predict the population structure in the future ten years in Shenzhen.Moreover, after getting the data about medical beds in Shenzhen from 1789 to 2010 by looking for information, and then we draw the relationship between the population and the number of the medical beds with the MATLAB software. Finally, according to the proportion of the population in Shenzhen and in every district , the medical bed demands in future ten years is predicted based on the above analysis. Considering question 2, we select children with bronchitis and cerebrovascular disease, and through finding the information we get the morbidity of Shenzhen in 2010. Based on the total number of the sick ,the elementary functions are established to obtain the required number of beds and predict the bed demands of both diseasea in medical institutions of different types. Keywords: MATLAB Polynomial Fitting Grey Dynamic Model Prediction of the Medical Beds .Introduction With the rapid development of economy in Shenzhen, its health career has formed a city, district and community medical service system, which has solved the medical problems of current population to a certain extent. However the floating population in Shenzhen is far more than the household population, where the young population occupies the absolute advantage, and with the increasing proportion of the elderly population, which result a large difference between the current medical needs and that in the future. And the future medical needs are relative to the population structure and the economic development .Whats more, reasonable prediction can make medical facilities match the future population health needs. So we need successfully complete the following problems: Analyze the variation characteristics of the resident population and non-resident population in Shenzhen in recent ten years, and then predict the development trend of population size and structure in the future ten years in Shenzhen , witch on the basis of to predict the medical bed demands of the whole city and every district in future ten years ; According to the age structure of the population in Shenzhen , the prevalence situation and the collected data, choose several diseases (such as: lung cancer and other malignant tumor, myocardial infarction, cerebral vascular disease, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, pneumonia, childbirth) to forecast the bed demands in medical institutions of different types. AnalysisThe characteristic of the population in Shenzhen is that the floating population is far more than the household population. In view of this situation , we selected the resident and non-resident population to study .Firstly , after analyzing the variation characteristics of the population in Shenzhen in the resent ten years , we decided to analyze the variation of the resident population through the MATLAB fitting results of analysis in the future ten years . The non-resident population includes tourism, visiting relatives and business trips, and we assumed that the floating population as the non-resident population. Furthermore, we got the number of the floating population by looking for information in previous years. In view of the above analysis, we applied Grey Dynamic Model to forecast the future development trend of the floating population.Furthermore, according to the demographic data given in the annexes , the population structure is divided to three parts, under 14 years old as children, from 14 years old to 60 years old as middle age, over 60 years old as the old. And then through the MATLAB software , we predict the structure in the future ten years in Shenzhen.Moreover, after getting the data about medical beds in Shenzhen from 1789 to 2010 by looking for information, and then we draw the relationship between the population and the number of the medical beds with the MATLAB software. Finally, according to the proportion of the population in Shenzhen and in every district, the medical bed demands in future ten years is predicted based on the above analysis. Besides, as the floating population has little impact on the medical bed demands , so when forecasting the number of the medical beds in Shenzhen and every district, we only consider the influence of the resident population .Through the age structure of the population in Shenzhen and finding the prevalence of pediatric pneumonia and cerebrovascular diseases, we know pediatric pneumonia mainly happens to the children under 14, and cerebrovascular diseases are took place over 60. We choose that two kinds of diseases to establish elementary functions and then calculate the bed demands in medical institutions of different types.Assumptions1 The used data is accurate.2 The proportion of the whole population and the number of hospitalizations is a certain value , then it is also in the future ten years .3 War ,earthquake and serious epidemics dont occur in the future decade. 4 The policy in Shenzhen doesnt have obvious change in the future ten years .5 Health and medical conditions remain unchanged in the future ten years.6 The proportion of seeing a doctor is unchanged in medical institutions of different types.7 Hospitalization rate equals to the prevalence rate .8 The prevalence rate is of the same in the same age.Terminology and notation: number of days in a year:n=365 days;: the resident population in the i year:the number of the sick:the proportion in hospital knumber of the hospital days about some kind of diseasethe total number of the medical bedshe total number of the medical beds in hospital k the cases of the disease about the children with pneumonia in the year Model Design and Solution6.1 Design the Model of the Resident Population According to the given data about the resident population from 1979 to 2010 in Annex 1, using MATLAB, we predict the development trend of population in Shenzhen. Through the comparison, using the result of the fourth fitting model, we find the predicted value is more reliable. The green line is for the actual resident population, the red line is for the quadratic fitting model curve, and the purple is for the confident interval. The predicted resident population from 2010 to 2010(ten thousands of persons as a unit单位为万人)20112012201320142015201620172018201920201036105710761093110711201130113911461152 Table 6.1-1 Table 6.1-26.2、 Design the Model of the Floating PopulationAccording to the investigation method and the published data of the sixth census in Shenzhen as well as the statistics of the inflowing population in Shenzhen Public Security Bureau during 2000-20102 , we get the data about the floating population in the following table. the Floating Population in Shenzhen in Previous Years(ten thousands as a unit)Yearsthe Floating Population2000677.212004906200611002008120020101250The model is established as the following:The original time series of the population in previous years is in the below: .Then do an accumulated generating operation, and use the formula ,so we can get the first accumulated generating sequence . Next determine the data matrix:,and . Substitute , and use the method of the least squares to estimate the parameters ,and create the model of the predicted population ,then solve the linear first-order differential equations ,we can get the time response functionand the results obtained through MATLAB are the following: the Development Trend of the Floating Population in Future in Shenzhen (单位：千万)Years20112012201320142015the Floating Population0.95411.05331.16271.28351.4168Years20162017201820192020the Floating Population1.56401.72651.90592.10392.3225Table 6.2-1 As shown in Table 6.2-1, we can find the floating population will gradually increase. Moreover, we forecast the floating population will raise to 2322.5 ten thousands in the following ten years. 6.3 Forecast the Population Structurethe Population Structure in Shenzhen and in Every District in 2000DistrictTotal populationthe Population of 0-14Proportionthe Population over 60ProportionShenzhen70088315953290.08493981430700.020413Luohu774805882510.1139009248390.0320584Futian9095711061990.1167572275660.0303066Nanshan722095730300.1011363172280.0238584Baoan27351291872120.0684472401690.0146863Longgang17149081288790.0751521305600.0178202Yantian152323117580.077191227080.017778Table 6.3-18%89%2%The population structure in Shenzhen in 2000AdultsChildrenthe OldsTable 6.3-2the Population Structure in Shenzhen and in Every District in 2010DistrictTotal populationthe Population of 0-14Proportionthe Population over 60ProportionShenzhen1035775410233450.09879993034160.0292936Luohu9234701095280.1186048446510.0483513Futian13176201564310.1187224693130.0526047Nanshan10880081256580.1154936390850.0359234Baoan40178053020990.0751901702120.0174752Longgang20112242392620.1189634563850.0280352Yantian208878232470.111294668440.0327655Guangming481505388520.080688795940.019925pingshan309244282680.0914173320.0237094 Table 6.3-3 10%87%3%the Population Structure in Shenzhen in 2010AdultsChildrenthe OldsTable 6.3-4 Table 6.3-2 and Table 6.3-4 show that the proportion of the elderly and the children has increased three percent during ten years, and the population of the elderly increased faster, but aging is taking shape. During ten years, the population in Shenzhen has increased 355.96 ten thousands, which means the issue of aging will be more serious. Whats more, with the rapid economic development, there will be more and more people settling in Shenzhen, so higher requirements for medical health conditions will be put forward in future.the Proportion Structure in Shenzhen and in Every District in 2000 note: in Shenzhen 0-14:595329 Over 60:143070 Total:738399 districtthe Population of 0-14theProportion of 0-14 in Shenzhenthe Population over 60theProportionover 60 in Shenzhen Total populationof the Old and the Childrenthe Population of the Old and the Children Shenzhen882510.148239248390.17361431130900.153156Luohu1061990.178387275660.19267491337650.181155Futian730300.122672172280.1204166902580.122235Nanshan1872120.314468401690.28076472273810.307938Baoan1288790.216484305600.21360171594390.215925Longgang117580.0197527080.0189278144660.019591Table 6.3-5LuohuFutianNanshanBaoanLonggangYantian00.05Table 6.3-6The possibility of the elderly and the children falling ill is bigger, so when calculating the medical bed demands, we just consider the proportion of the population of the elderly and the children between in Shenzhen and in every district. Based on the above data, the population structure of every district in 2000 and 2010 is found. Meanwhile, we work out the proportion and then list the Table 6.3-5 and Table 6.3-6. After looking for the yearbook 3 of Shenzhen in previous years,we get the data of medical bed demands from 1979 to 2010 in Table 6.3-7. the Development of the Medical Beds in Shenzhen from 1979 to 2010Years1979198019811982198319841985Number of Beds（个）597643790717102316341885Years1986198719881989199019911992Number of Beds（个）2028222524972838310834984466Years1993199419951996199719981999Number of Beds（个）5168604066407105781383538720Years2000200120022003200420052006Number of Beds（个）9616105421180812697141861557716193Years2007200820092010Number of Beds（个）16766184351987221166Table 6.3-7 Considering the variation of the population size and structure, we use MATLAB to get the relation of the medical bed demands and time in Table 6.3-8.The green line is for the actual number of the medical beds in Shenzhen , the red line is for the third fitting model curve, and the purple is for the confident interval. Through the comparison, we find the results obtained by using the third fitting model curve agree with the actual data of the medical beds.Table 6.3-8the Medical Bed Demands in Shenzhen from 2011 to 2020Years2011201220132014201520162017201820192020Number of beds22528239782548327044286623033832072338673572137637Table 6.3-9the Proportion Structure in Shenzhen and in Every District in 2000 Note:0-14:in Shenzhen 1023345 over 60:303416 total: 1613201 districtthe Population of 0-14theProportion of 0-14 in Shenzhenthe Population over 60theProportionover 60 in Shenzhen Total populationof the Old and the Childrenthe Population of the Old and the Children Luohu1441230.1100356446510.1471611887740.117018Futian2050460.1565494693130.22844212743590.170071Nanshan1600940.1222292390850.12881651991790.123468Baoan3776240.2883099702120.23140514478360.277607Longgang3084020.23546563850.1858343647870.226126Yantian301920.023051168440.0225565370360.022958Guangming481310.036747395940.03162577250.035783pingshan361730.027617573320.0241648435050.026968Table 6.3-10the Medical Bed Demands in Every District in 2020Luohu FutianNanshanBaoanLonggangYantianGuangmingPingshan 02000400060008000100001200044946531474110661868488113741035Table 6.3-11DistrictLuohuFutianNanshanBaoanLonggangYantianGuangmingNumber of beds张）4494653147411066186848811374Table 6.3-126.2.1 children with bronchial pneumoniaWe make respresent 0-14 years old years of the resident population ,make stand for the number of sick and a respresent the hospicals proportion.If this ratio is unchanged,we stand for article the number of patients for a day. Respresents a disease of average length of stay.So the total demand for beds is and the kind of hospital beds is .By the network the hospitals are divided into three categories:Gegeral Hospital ,childrens Hospital and the Child Health Hospital.If the sick people see a doctor in different medical institutionsThrough the network to find US hospitals are divided into three categories: General Hospital, childrens Hospital and the maternal and child health hospital. If the sick people out in different medical institutions the proportion respectively ( table ). It may be considered that to 2020 to n hospital scale invariant, find information in 2010 1023345 of the total population, and 34489 cases of average length of stay of 6.3 days.Children bronchial pneumonia in these three kinds of hospital scale医院综合医院儿童医院妇幼保健就诊人数比例0.6690.1710.16小儿肺炎的在深圳市总的床位数为：一年的天数天小儿肺炎在医院的床位数为： 2010到2020年小儿支气管肺炎在这三类医院的需有的床位数年份总人数（万人）小孩比例小孩人数（万人）总床位需求（张）综合医院床位所需（个）儿童医院床位所需（个）妇幼保健院的床位需求（个）2011 10360.102105.67261341010498201210570.104109.928638427109102201310760.106114.056662443113105201410930.108118.044685458117109201511070.11121.77707473120113201611200.112125.44728487124116201711300.114128.82748500127119201811390.116132.124767513131122201911460.118135.228785525134125202011520.12138.248025371371286.2.2 CerebrovascularFor cerebrovascular disease, through access to information, mainly over the age of 50, the total population in 2010 is 76.7271 million, the cases of 17,068 cases, with an average length of hospital stay of 14.9 days. The hospital is divided into two categories： General Hospit