宫东风英语内部附加题.pdf

1 附 附 Sample One Directions In the following text some sentences have been removed For Questions 41 45 choose the most suitable one from the list A G to fit into each of the numbered blanks There are two extra choices which do not fit in any of the blanks Mark your answers on ANSWER SHEET 1 10 points The textbooks have little to say about post bubble economies That makes the current prognosis all the more problematic A profusion of asset bubbles has burst around the world from property and credit to commodities and emerging market equities 41 42 Never before has there been such an extraordinary capitulation of the American consumer 43 Moreover reminiscent of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 98 the currencies of South Korea Indonesia and India are under severe pressure As the commodity bubble implodes a similar boom bust pattern is unfolding in Australia New Zealand Canada and the Middle East 44 Some would take it even further and condemn the freewheeling model of market based capitalism Let the record show however that while the US certainly made its fair share of mistakes the rest of the world was more than happy to go along for the ride A post bubble shakeout is likely to be the defining feature of the global economic outlook over the next few years Three conclusions are most apparent One do not analyse a post bubble recession as a normal business cycle As economies that levered their asset bubbles to excess especially the US come to grips with tough post bubble realities a powerful deleveraging will ensue That could prolong the duration of the downturn as well as inhibit the vigour of the subsequent recovery Two on the demand side focus on the American consumer the biggest and most over extended consumer in the world With personal saving rates still close to zero and debt loads remaining at all time highs US consumption is heading for a Japanese style multi year adjustment After 14 years of nearly 4 per cent average growth in US real consumer spending gains could slow to 1 2 per cent over the next 3 5 years And no other consumer in the world is likely to step up and fill the void Three on the supply side focus on China Industrial production growth has been cut in half in China rising at just 8 per cent year on year in October following five years of average gains of about 16 5 per cent With the global economy in recession this outcome should 2 hardly come as a surprise for a Chinese economy that has seen its export share of total gross domestic product rise from about 20 per cent to nearly 40 per cent over the past seven years China is paying a price for its own imbalances especially a lack of support from internal private consumption 45 A Crises invariably trigger finger pointing This one is no exception Global observers have been quick to blame the US arguing that it s all about the excesses of Wall Street and America s subprime fiasco B That s an especially rude awakening for a global economy that has become dependent on the very bubbles that are now imploding It is as if the world has suddenly been turned inside out C In short look for a post bubble world to remain in recession throughout 2009 followed by an anaemic recovery at best in 2010 In an era of globalisation we became intoxicated with what cross border linkages were able to deliver on the upside of a boom But as that boom went to excess and spawned a lethal globalisation of asset bubbles the inevitable bust now poses an exceedingly tough hangover D Nor did anyone force the German Landesbanken and the Swiss universal banks to invest heavily in toxic assets And the new mega cities of the Gulf region Dubai Doha Riyadh and Abu Dhabi owe their very existence to the oil bubble Now all of these bubbles have burst leaving a bubble dependent world in the lurch E Similar extremes are evident elsewhere Europe and Japan have joined the US in the first synchronous G3 recession of the post second world war era Nor has the developing world been spared While most big developing economies should avoid outright contractions in overall output sharp deceleration is evident in China India and Russia Hong Kong and Singapore Asia s two prosperous city states are both in recession F The American consumer is a case in point Real personal consumption expenditures are on track for rare back to back quarterly declines in the second half of 2008 at roughly a 3 5 per cent average annual rate Since 1950 there have been only four instances when real consumer demand fell for two consecutive quarters Declines will exceed 3 per cent in both quarters for the first time G That s especially the case in Asia China and other producers upped the ante on their export led impetus to economic growth By 2007 the export share of developing Asia s gross domestic product exceeded 45 per cent fully 10 percentage points higher than the share prevailing during the Asian crisis of the late 1990s Moreover the Chinese led the way in recycling a disproportionate share of their massive reservoir of foreign exchange reserves back into dollar based assets That kept the renminbi highly competitive as any export led economy likes but also prevented US interest rates from rising keeping the magic alive for bubble dependent American consumers In effect the world s bubbles fed off each other 3 Sample Four Directions You are going to read a list of headings and a text about how to be a good leader Choose the most suitable heading from the list A G for each numbered paragraph 41 45 Some of the paragraphs of the text are not numbered There are two extra headings that you do not need to use Mark your answers on ANSWER SHEET 1 10 points A Have a mentor or buddy B Inspire your team C Know your team D Plan your succession E Empower F Be seen G Have a role model Remember leadership skills and techniques can be learned You don t have to be a natural leader Very few people are At some point every day walk around the office and say Hi to everyone who works for you If you re not in the office that day call and see how people are Meet your team Regularly daily weekly or monthly depending on your place and type of work have meetings of all the members of the team Keep these meetings short focused and action orientated Train your team Every team member should have at least two days training a year Newer and more senior colleagues should have more If they don t ask to go on training sessions suggest some suitable courses Set objectives for each team member As far as possible these objective such be SMART Specific Measurable Achievable Resourced Timed Review the performance of each team member At least once a year at least quarterly for the first year of a new team member have a review session where you assess performance give feed back and agree future objectives and training 41 4 Communicate constantly Don t assume that people know what you re doing still less what you are planning or thinking Tell them using all the communication tools to hand team briefings electronic newsletters organizational newspapers Delegate You don t have to do everything Develop your team members by training them to do more and trusting them to take over some of the things you ve been doing A really effective leader sets clear objectives for his team members but leaves detailed implementation of these objectives to the discretion and judgment of individual members of the team As Second World War U S General George S Patton put it Don t tell people how to do things Tell them what to do and let them surprise you with their results Facilitate A confident leader does not try to micro manage his team but makes it clear that if team members need advice or assistance he is always there to facilitate and support Be on time Always start meetings on time and finish them on time Natural breaks keep people fresh Short meetings concentrate the mind Don t just talk the talk but walk the walk So visit each unit or department for which you are responsible on a regular basis Don t do this unannounced you are not out to undermine other leaders or catch out staff So arrange with the unit leader or departmental head when you ll visit and ask him or her to walk round with you Really listen Many of us especially those who think they are important don t really listen but instead think about what they re going to say next Give the person speaking