隐形冠军——超越危机的战略与领导艺术

Changsha, October 10, 2009 21世纪的隐形冠军 超越危机的战略与领导艺术 Hidden Champions of the 21st Century Strategy and Leadership Beyond the Crisis 赫尔曼 西蒙 教授 博士 Prof. Dr. Hermann Simon Bonn Office Haydnstrasse 36, D-53115 Bonn, Germany Tel. +49/228/9843-115, Fax +49/228/9843-380 e-mail: Internet: 9H01X043 - 2 - “中国谚语” Chinese Wisdom 风雨来时， 人或筑墙， 余者造风车 When the storm comes, some build walls, the others build windmills. 9H01X043 - 3 - 你了解危机的实质吗？ Understanding the Crisis? 宏观经济背景 Macroeconomic perspective: 危机的根源 The root of the crisis 金融市场与实体经济 Financial vs. real markets 全球化的冲击 The impact of globalization 政府的角色 The role of government 9H01X043 - 4 - 来也匆匆，去也匆匆 Steep Ascent, Steep Fall Source: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, July 2, 2009, p. 11 * German engineering firms 608010012014016098 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09新订单 New Orders* 2005=Index 100 Dec. 2007 148.9 Jan. 2009 91.4 May 2009 66.1 9H01X043 - 5 - 危机如何影响行业 How Crises Affect Sectors 前危机时代的变化 Changes in former crises (1980-2006) Education (e.g. tuition, textbooks) 教育 Reading (e.g. newspapers, magazines) 阅读 Insurance: private and pension 保险 Health care (e.g. health insurance, services) 保健 Food at home 在家吃饭 Entertainment (e.g. event tickets, travel) 娱乐 Housing 住房 Tobacco products 烟草 Cash contributions 现金付款的交易 Clothing and services 服装与相关服务 Transportation 运输 Personal care products and services 个人护理产品与服务 Food outside of home 在外面吃饭 Total 9053432928-6- 1 0- 2 8- 4 5- 7 0- 7 8- 1 1 0- 1 0- 1 3Increased spending over period average Decreased spending over period average Source: Hermann Simon, Beat the Crisis - 33 Quick Solutions for Your Company, New York: Springer 2009. 9H01X043 - 6 - 一个产业的子行业受影响的情况 Process engineering (technology) Agricultural engineering Elevators and escalators Power systems Robots and automation Engine technology Compressor and vacuum technology Materials handling technology Fluid pumps Machine tools Precision tools Wood processing machinery Smelting and roller plants Construction and building material machinery Fluid technology Plastics and rubber machinery General air technology (ventilation) Mining machinery Foundry machinery Printing and paper technology Textile machinery Total 321313111110877664331-3-7- 1 4- 3 27358Revenue growth per 2009 Revenue drop per 2009 Revenue changes (in %) Source: Hermann Simon, Beat the Crisis - 33 Quick Solutions for Your Company, New York: Springer 2009. 9H01X043 - 7 - 超越危机 Beyond the Crisis? 危机将以何种形式发展 Course of the crisis: V, U, L, hysteresis or W? 社会政治后果 Socio-political consequences Social tensions 社会紧张 From deflation to inflation 从通缩到通胀 Public debt, higher taxation 公债，高税率 More government regulation 更多的政府管制 Protectionism 保护主义 Worst-case scenarios 最坏的图景 9H01X043 - 8 - 危机可能的发展形态 Economic level Time V型 U型 L型 Hysteresis 迟滞型 W型 9H01X043 - 9 - Danger of protectionism 贸易保护主义的危害 2009年 4月的伦敦峰会上 ， G20国家承诺不制造新的贸易壁垒 。现在 WTO新的平衡状态发人深省 。 新的关税 、 配额和各种官僚主义的人为障碍使得世界贸易总额下降了 10%。 “At the London summit in April 2009 the G 20 nations promised not to create new barriers to trade. Now the WTO draws a sobering balance. New duties, quotas and bureaucratic hurdles have pushed world trade down by 10%. Source: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, July 4, 2009, p. 13 9H01X043 - 10 - 超越危机 Beyond the Crisis? 公司层面 ：危机是固本强身的机会 Corporate level: The crisis as a purification 去杠杆化，净资产更重要 Deleveraging/equity more important 产品线更精干 Streamlining of product lines 重新平衡共给与需求 Rebalancing of supply and demand 并购的好机会 Acquisition opportunities 出现极端价格细分市场 Emergence of ultra-price segment A new modesty? 9H01X043 - 11 - 极端低价产品的出现 Emerging Ultra-low Price Segment Tata Nano “One laptop per child” Nestl Pharmaceuticals/GSK From emerging to industrial countries? 9H01X043 - 12 - Tata Nano 9H01X043 - 13 - 谁是全球最大的出口国？ Who is No. 1 in Exports? China 中国 USA 美国 Japan 日本 Germany 德国 9H01X043 - 14 - 2008年出口总额 (单位： 10亿美元 Billion US-$) Source: 2009 CIA World Factbook 293373458462469538566630777137714291463S p a i nB e l g i u mK o r e aC a n a d aU n i t e d K i n g d o m 英国N e t h e r l a n d s 荷兰I t a l y 意大利F r a n c e 法国J a p a n 日本U S A 美国C h i n a 中国G e r m a n y 德国9H01X043 - 15 - 出口额 2000-2008 年 (单位： 10亿美元 US-$ billion) 1 . 4 2 87624385931 . 2 2 09721 . 4 6 31 . 3 2 21 . 1 0 99719107521 . 3 7 71 . 0 3 71 . 1 4 89048197254006008001 . 0 0 01 . 2 0 01 . 4 0 01 . 6 0 02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: WTO Trade Statistics in billion US-$ Germany 德国 China 中国 USA 美国 Year 9H01X043 - 16 - 什么是隐形冠军？ What Is a Hidden Champion? 市场份额排世界前 3名，或者在本大洲排第一 Top 3 in the world or no. 1 on its continent 年销售收入在 40亿美元以下 Revenue below $4 billion 不为公众所熟悉 Not well known in general public 9H01X043 - 17 - 隐形冠军举例 Hidden Champions Delo Baader Brainlab Lantal Brita Tetra Belfor 9H01X043 - 18 - 来自中国的隐形冠军 Hidden Champions from China 中集： 46%的全球集装箱份额 China International Marine Containers: 46% of global market for standard containers 比亚迪： 72%的全球手机电池市场份额 BYD Battery: 72% of global market for mobile phone batteries 上海振华港机： 35%的港口集装箱 Shanghai Zhenhua Port Machinery: 35% of global market for harbor cranes 格力： 30%的全球家用空调市场份额 Gree: 30% of global market for household air conditioner 圣雅伦：指甲钳大王 St. Allen: Nail clippers 9H01X043 - 19 - 中国占世界的市场份额 China: World Market Shares 9H01X043 - 20 - 中国中小企业扮演的角色 Role of small and mid-sized firms for China 中国今日的经济成就很大一部分归功于中小企业“ China owes a great deal of its recent economic success to small and medium enterprises. 1990年 100万家， 2001年 800万家， 2008年 6000万家。 1990: 1m, 2001: 8m, 2008: 60m small firms 贡献了 60%的 GDP和 50%的税收 Account for 60% of GDP and 50% of tax revenues 66%的专利申请 66% of patent applications 68%的中国出口 68% of Chinas exports 9H01X043 - 21 - 世界各国的 隐形冠军 版本 Hidden Champions Worldwide Russia 2005 Japan 1998 Germany 1997 Italy 2001/2007 Brazil 2003 Netherlands 1997 Spain 1997 Poland 1999 Turkey 1999 France 1998 January 26, 2004 India 2006 Serbia 2007 Egypt 2008 Korea 1997/2008 China 1997/2000/ 2005/2009 Taiwan 1996/2004 USA 1996/2009 9H01X043 - 22 - 过去 10年最重要的变化 Key Facts of the Last Ten Years 100万个新工作机会 1 million new jobs 年增长额几乎达到 10%，销售收入是 10年前的 2.5倍 Annual growth of almost 10% p.a., revenue 2.5 times larger than 10 years ago 新产生超过 200个亿万富翁 More than 200 new $-billionaires 全球市场份额大幅增加 Sharp increase of world market share 大规模的创新浪潮 Massive wave of innovation 9H01X043 - 23 - 隐形冠军与金融危机 Hidden Champions and Crises 30%的公司曾经在严重的危急中幸免于难 30% have survived serious crises 隐形冠军从危急中获利 Hidden champions profit from crises 市场是在艰难的时刻，而不是顺利的时刻重新洗牌 Markets are redistributed in difficult, not in easy times 稳健的财务是关键 Solid financing is crucial 9H01X043 - 24 - 他们为什么成功？ Why are they successful? 他们和大公司有什么不同？ How do they differ from large firms? 我们从他们身上可以学到什么？ What can we learn from them? 9H01X043 - 25 - 雄心勃勃的目标 Extremely ambitious goals: 关于市场领袖地位 Market Leadership 关于成长 Growth 9H01X043 - 26 - Chemetall凯密特尔 “凯密特尔的目标是成为全球范围内技术和营销的双重领袖！” The goal of Chemetall is the worldwide technology and marketing leadership. 9H01X043 - 27 - 3B Scientific 三毕科技 我们要成为并保持世界第一的地位！ We want to become and stay no. 1 in the world. 9H01X043 - 28 - Karl Mayer 卡尔 梅耶 “我们不希望我们的全球市场份额低于 70% We dont want our world market share to drop below 70%. 9H01X043 - 29 - 隐形冠军的市场份额 Market Share of Hidden Champions 相对市场份额 Relative market share 绝对市场份额 Absolute market share 1.56 2.34 33.0% 30.2% 全球 World 今天 Today 10年前 10 years ago 10年前 10 years ago 今天 Today 9H01X043 - 30 - 增长 Growth 从隐形冠军到“大冠军” From Hidden Champion to Big Champion Fre se niusSAPWue rth020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200001995 2008Revenues in USD million9H01X043 - 31 - 增长 Growth 中型的隐形冠军公司 Mid-sized Hidden Champions Cronim e tClaasEne rcon05001000150020002500300035004000450050001995 2008Revenues in USD million9H01X043 - 32 - 增长 Growth 小型隐形冠军公司 Small Hidden Champions RationalBrainlabBarte c01002003004005006001995 2008Revenues in USD million 9H01X043 - 33 - 经验之一 Lesson 1 成功永远源自于雄心勃勃的远大目标 。 21世纪的隐形冠军对于市场领袖地位和企业的成长壮志凌云 ， 这是促使他们前进的动力 ！ Success always begins with ambitious goals. The Hidden Champions of the 21st century go for growth and market leadership. This is the fuel that drives them forward. 9H01X043 - 34 - 聚焦与深度 Focus and Depth 9H01X043 - 35 - Uhlmann 乌尔姆 我们从来都只有一个客户，将来也只会有一个客户，那就是：医药行业。 我们只做一件事情，但是我们把它做好！ We always had one customer and will only have one customer in the future: the pharmaceutical industry. We only do one thing, but we do it right. 9H01X043 - 36 - Flexi 我们只做一件事，但是这件事我们比所有人都做得好！ We will do only one thing, but we do it better than anyone else. 9H01X043 - 37 - 求深不求宽：聚焦战略的要旨 Deep Instead of Broad: A Focused Strategy The Case of Winterhalter Dishwashers for Hospitals Dishwashers for Schools Dishwashers for Hotels/ Restaurants Dishwashers Water Conditioners Detergents Service Dishwashers for Companies Dishwashers for Organisations 宽度 深度 9H01X043 - 38 - 纵深发展的价值链 Deep Value Chain 有关核心竞争力的部分绝不外包 No outsourcing of core competencies 无关核心竞争力的部分尽可能外包 Strong outsourcing of non-core activities 自己的机床设备 Own machine shops 技术研发守口如瓶 Very secretive in R&D 对战略联盟不敢兴趣 Avoidance of strategic alliances 9H01X043 -