经济学人中英双语阅读精选(每日一篇).docx

The truth hurts 真相伤人Mar 31st 2010 | WASHINGTON, DC | From The Economist print editionWill the Treasury call China a currency manipulator?财政部会定义中国为货币操纵国吗？TO MOST people, to say that China holds down the value of its currency to boost its exports is to state the obvious. Not, though, to Americas Treasury Department. By law it must report twice a year on which countries fiddle their exchange rates at the worlds expense. China was last fingered in 1994. Ever since then, the Treasury has concluded that the designation would do more harm than good. Speculation is growing that it may decide differently in its next report, due on April 15th.对大多数人来说，说中国通过抑制人民币的价值，刺激出口，等于在陈述一个明显的事实。然而对美国财政部来说，却不是这么简单。法律规定它每隔两年对其它国家干涉汇率，危害他国的行为进行汇报。中国曾在1994年列入汇率操纵国。自那时候起，财政部得出结论：罗列中国，更多的是带来坏处。外界猜测财政部可能将在4月15日的报告中推翻原先的结论。The mood in America resembles that in 2005, when the Senate voted to hit China with tariffs of 27.5% and the Treasury ratcheted up its rhetoric. China abruptly moved to a managed float for the yuan. It was allowed to appreciate by 20% over the next three years before a halt was called during the banking panic of 2008.现在美国的感受类似2005年。那时，参议院投票决定对中国征收27.5%的报复性关税，财政部言辞也咄咄逼人。压力之下，中国突然转而对人民币采用管理的浮动汇率，允许人民币在三年内升值20%。 2008年，这一汇率机制在金融危机的风暴中戛然而止。China seems more determined to resist pressure this time, though, and can rightly point out that its fiscal stimulus has halved its current-account surplus since 2007. Americas trade deficit with China has edged a bit lower (see chart), though further declines seem unlikely, now that its own recovery is under way. 然而此次，中国似乎更坚定地抵抗美方压力。它据理指出，自2007年来，财政刺激政策使本国的活期储蓄总额减少一半。另外，美国对中国的贸易逆差已小幅缩小(见上图)，然而因为美国的经济复苏正在进行，逆差继续缩小似乎不太可能。Nonetheless, the weight of opinion in America is running heavily against China. Unemployment has doubled since 2005 and Barack Obama wants exports to lead the recovery. That will be harder if China sticks to its export-centric yuan policy.尽管如此，美国现在有高涨的反华情绪。自2005年来，失业率双倍增长。奥巴马希望通过贸易出口，走向复苏。但如果中国坚持便利出口的人民币政策，奥巴马的愿望会更难实现。Businesses have also become less reliable defenders of China, rankled by measures such as an edict last autumn which, according to American technology companies, virtually shuts them out of Chinese government procurement. The hacking attacks on Google and the trial of Rio Tinto executives have hardly helped. “A whole slew of multinationals Ive talked to are increasingly fed up with how they are being dealt with on micro, industry, product-specific stuff,” says Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank.根据美国的科技公司，去年秋天的一个中方法令几乎使它们无法获得中国政府的采购合同。因此，美国企业抱怨不已，越来越不愿维护中国。针对谷歌的黑客攻击以及力拓高管的审判使情况变得更糟。“我谈过的许多跨国公司都表示它们越来越无法忍受在微型计算机，工业，规格产品这些领域所受的待遇。”彼得森国际经济研究所（一智库）所长弗雷德伯格斯坦说道。Charles Schumer, a Democratic senator, and Lindsey Graham, a Republican, authors of the 2005 China tariff bill that probably pushed China to move, have introduced a variant that would force the Treasury to make the designation and then seek redress through the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organisation, and unilateral duties. One manufacturing-union group has produced maps showing just how many jobs each congressional district and state has lost to China.曾在2005年起草反华税收法案很可能正是这个法案促使中国改变的民主党参议员查尔斯舒默和共和党参议员林赛格雷厄姆已提出了一个类似法案，这法案将迫使财政部把中国列入操纵国名单，并且通过国际货币基金组织，世贸组织以及单边提高关税等手段寻求贸易平衡。一个制造业工会绘制了地图，显示了在中国出口的冲击下，美国各地工作岗位的流失情况。A popular view in Washington is that the Treasury could call China a manipulator to wrest control of the issue from hotheads in Congress. The practical consequences are small: it requires the United States only to consult with the offending country, something the two already do frequently. It would also fulfil Mr Obamas promise to use Americas trade enforcement tools more vigorously. But Nicholas Lardy, also of the Peterson Institute, thinks thatfar from restraining othersa Treasury designation of China as a manipulator would be “like throwing red meat to the Congress and enhancing the possibility they pass a currency bill.”现在华盛顿流行这么一种观点：财政部可以定义中国为操纵国，以此从国会鲁莽的议员手中抢回对此问题的主导权。但这样没什么实际的影响：这将要求美国与操纵国进行协商，而两国已经频繁协商。同样，这将实现奥巴马先生提高美国贸易执法机构执法力度的承诺。但是同样来自彼得森研究所的尼古拉斯拉迪认为罗列中国不但不能限制国会议员插手，反而会刺激国会，加大了国会议员通过一项货币法案的可能性。The administrations best hope is that China moves of its own accord before events in Congress or elsewhere force a confrontation. Tim Geithner, the treasury secretary, is surprisingly confident that China will act. Sander Levin, the usually interventionist-minded chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee which oversees trade matters, advocates multilateral rather than unilateral pressure. So perhaps the administration will give China one last chance and seek a multilateral remedy at the G20 in June. If China still fails to respond, the Treasury, by the time of its autumn re