飞轮电池生产计划的制定1.docx

飞轮电池生产计划的制定1. 市场需求预测-22. 实际产品的生产工艺路线分析-53. 生产方式的经济分析和比较-54. 制定综合生产计划-75. 生产能力的粗平衡-76. 制定主生产计划-87. 制定MRP,CRP-88. 生产能力的精平衡-219. 零件工序卡编制-2110. 产品装配工序卡编制-231.市场需求预测（Market forecast）实验数据Month 1Month 2Month 3Month 4Year 19182421Year 210202723Year 311222926year1，Q19year1，Q218year1，Q324year1，Q421year2，Q110year2，Q220year2，Q327year2，Q423year3，Q111year3，Q222year3，Q329year3，Q426由折线图分析可知：飞轮电池的需求量具有明显的季节性变化，而不同年份相同月份的需求量呈明显的线性关系方案一：Seasonalized Time Seiries Regression的模型来进行市场预测。预测过程及结果如下： * SEASONALIZED TIME SERIES REGRESSION FORECASTING *-PROBLEM NAME: 张超- FORECAST Sales - ABSOLUTE YEAR SEASON ACTUAL REGRESSION SEASONALIZED ERROR 1 1 9.000 17.533 8.766 0.234 1 2 18.000 17.982 17.982 0.018 1 3 24.000 18.430 24.573 0.573 1 4 21.000 18.879 22.025 1.025 2 1 10.000 19.327 9.664 0.336 2 2 20.000 19.776 19.776 0.224 2 3 27.000 20.224 26.966 0.034 2 4 23.000 20.673 24.118 1.118 3 1 11.000 21.121 10.561 0.439 3 2 22.000 21.570 21.570 0.430 3 3 29.000 22.018 29.358 0.358 3 4 26.000 22.467 26.212 0.212- Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%) YEAR SEASON FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 4 1 11.458 10.910 12.006 4 2 23.364 22.268 24.460 4 3 31.750 30.289 33.212 4 4 28.305 27.026 29.584REGRESSION EQUATION: Y = a + bX WHERE: Y = Sales X = TIME PERIOD a = 17.0844 b = 0.4486FORECAST = Y * SEASONAL INDEX (i)R = 0.942R-SQUARE = 0.8872MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 0.333MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.283MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = -0.131STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 0.605SEASONAL INDEX (1) = 0.500SEASONAL INDEX (2) = 1.000SEASONAL INDEX (3) = 1.333SEASONAL INDEX (4) = 1.167方案二：TIME SERIES REGRESSION 模型进行预测预测过程及结果如下： * TIME SERIES REGRESSION FORECASTING *-PROBLEM NAME: zc- Sales Sales ABSOLUTE PERIOD ACTUAL FORECAST ERROR 1 9.000 14.846 5.846 2 18.000 15.783 2.217 3 24.000 16.720 7.280 4 21.000 17.657 3.343 5 10.000 18.594 8.594 6 20.000 19.531 0.469 7 27.000 20.469 6.531 8 23.000 21.406 1.594 9 11.000 22.343 11.343 10 22.000 23.280 1.280 11 29.000 24.217 4.783 12 26.000 25.154 0.846- Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%) PERIOD FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 13 26.091 14.974 37.208REGRESSION EQUATION: Y = a + bX WHERE: Y = Sales X = TIME PERIOD a = 13.9091 b = 0.9371R = 0.500R-SQUARE = 0.2501MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 2.303MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 31.369MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.0STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 6.1354从预测结果可以看出这种预测方法与过去的数据相差很大，因此，两种方法相比较，第一种预测误差精度更高误差更小，所以经过比较我采取第一种预测方法。预测结果如下：Month 1Month 2Month 3Month 4Year 4122332292.实际产品的生产工艺路线分析(Product Process Analysis)零件代号零件名称零件工艺过程生产 提前期12345MLF-03外壳锻造车削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-05外转子电机套筒锻造焊接车削钻孔、扩孔2MLF-07-03电磁铁外侧夹紧发兰铸造车削精车钻孔、扩孔线切割2MLF-07-04电磁铁铁芯锻造1MLF-07-05电磁铁内侧夹紧发兰铸造车削精车钻孔、扩孔线切割2MLF-07-06电磁铁夹紧装置铸造铣削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-09-01盘片铸造热处理车削精车钻孔、扩孔2MLF-09-02磁环模锻车削铣削1MLF-09-03压环铸造车削铣削钻孔、扩孔2MLF-11底板锻造车削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-12电器定位板铸造车削铣削钻孔、扩孔23.生产方式的经济分析与比较(Alternative Plans Comparison)Machine capacity=12325/425=29(assemble/month)Assemble capacity=4900/175=28(assemble/month)所以每月最多生产28台。首先，计算两种计划一年招聘、解雇工人人数和年平均库存1234567Aggregate planMonthAggregate demandPanned outputsWorkers requiredWorkers hiredWorkers laid offLevel capacity with inventory1122472018224247200332247200429247200Matching demand11212360542242472360332328412042929840089101112Inventory adding or subtractionBeginning inventoryEnding inventoryAverage inventory per monthAverage inventory per year1210221616.8750222222(8)221418(5)14911.500000000000000000然后，计算两种方案的总成本1234567Aggregate planTotal annual number of workers hiredTotal annual number of workers laid offAverage annual inventoryAnnual hiring and layoff costAnnual inventory carrying costTotal annual subtraction costTotal annual incremental operating costLevel capacity01816.87510805332.506412.5Matching demand4854037200(4+1)*180012720备注：（4）=（1）*10+（2）*60；（5）=（3）*4*79：（7）=（4）+（5）+（6）在matching demand生产计划中第三月和第四月的需求量超过了本厂的最大生产能力，如若要满足要求需要采用外协或者加班的方式解决。如果采用外协第三月份有32-28=4台需要外协，第四月份有29-28=1台需要外协。总的Cost=（4+1）*1800=9000再考虑到工人工资，则总的费用如下：Cost of level capacity=6412.5+72*4*2*200=121612.5Cost of matching demand=12720+(36+72+84+84)*2*200=123120相差的费用Cost of matching demand- Cost of level capacity =123120-121612.5=1507.5。 Level capacity比Matching demand的花费更少。如果采用加班加班：每台成本600*2.5=1500外协：每台成本1800因为对于matching demand 中第三月和第四月共缺5台，所以两者共相差（1800-1500）*5=1500通过比较可以看出，外泄和加班的费用差不多，但Level capacity的生产方式比Matching demand生产方式更加稳定； Level capacity生产方式在解雇和招聘工人方要比Matching demand的变动更小，有利于和工会之间关系的维持；在Level capacity生产方式中有8台的安全库存可以保证在市场变动时满足市场需求。综合以上因素，选择Level capacity生产方式。4.制定综合生产计划(Aggregate Planning)1234567Aggregate planMonthAggregate demandPanned outputsWorkers requiredWorkers hiredWorkers laid offLevel capacity with inventory11224720182242472003322472004292472005.生产能力粗平衡(Rough-Cut Capacity Planning)生产能力粗平衡Month final assembly hours1234Production24242424Final assembly hours4200420042004200Load(hours)4200420042004200Capacity(hours)4900490049004900生产能力满足要求，不需要加班或者外协。6制定主生产计划(Master Production Schedule)Level Capacity： 主生产计划Month 1Month 2Month 3Month 41234123412341234Total demand12243229Beginning inventory10222214Required production6666666666666666Ending inventory22221497制定MRP,CRP(Material Requirement Planning,Capacity Requirement Planning)7.1 MRP制定012数量MLF-001MLF-031MLF-051MLF-071MLF-07-033MLF-07043MLF-07-053MLF-07-066MLF-091MLF-09-011MLF-09-021MLF-09-031MLF-111MLF-12各个零件选择用Lot For Lot的生产方式，用软件POM计算： * MATERIALS REQUIREMENTS PLANNING (MRP) *=PROBLEM NAME: Untitled=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size00 0 0 10 8 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size03 1 1 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 6* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 0* RUSH ORDER *-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size05 1 2 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 16 6 6 6 6 6 6 6* RUSH ORDER *-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 0 0* RUSH ORDER *-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size0700 1 0 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-Week Number: 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 -Gross Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Receipts 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Planned Order Releases 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6-=Item Level Lead On Safety Already LotCode Code Time Hand Stock Allocated Size0703 2 2 0 0 0 LFL-Week Number: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -Gross Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Scheduled Receipts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Available 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Requirements 12 18 18 18 18 18 18 18Planned Order Receipts 12 18 18 18 18 1