合肥三洋股票价值评估.xls

合合肥肥三三洋洋DCFDREAVG DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 Growth rate0 10 year treasurary yield3 68 tax rate DIV 0 NOPM DIV 0 Rev Asset DIV 0 Equity Risk Permium 5 RE growth 2 0 000 00 Growth rate 10 year treasurary yield tax rate NOPM Rev Asset Equity Risk Permium RE growth 0 000 00 Growth rate 10 year treasurary yield tax rate NOPM Rev Asset Equity Risk Permium RE growth 0 000 00 Growth rate 10 year treasurary yield tax rate NOPM Rev Asset Equity Risk Permium RE growth Average Stock Value DIV 0 Safety index DIV 0 合合肥肥三三洋洋Intrinsic Stock Value by DRE DIV 0 Quantitative grade DIV 0 Company TickerHFSYIntrinsic Stock Value by DCF DIV 0 Excess Return Period years 10 00Depreciation Rate of Rev DIV 0 Rev mil 0 00Investment Rate of Rev DIV 0 Growth Rate 0 00 Working Capital of Rev DIV 0 Net Operating Profit Margin DIV 0 Short Term Assets mil 1 814 02 Tax Rate DIV 0 Short Term Liabilities mil 1 421 39 Stock Price19 26Equity Risk Permium 5 00 Shares Outstanding mil 333 00Company Beta 10 year Treasury Yield 3 68 Standard Deviation Bond Spread to Treasury Company WACC DIV 0 Perferred Stock Yield Value of Pref Stock Out mil Value of Debt out mil Cost of Common Equity 10 year Treasury Bond Yield 3 68 Company Specific Beta0 00 Equity Risk Premium 5 00 Cost of Common Equity3 68 Market Capitalization and After Tax Weighted Average Cost of Capital Current YieldAfter Tax YieldMarket Value CapitalizationWACC Yield Long Term Debt DIV 0 0 000 00 DIV 0 Perferred Stock0 00 0 000 00 0 00 Common Stock3 68 3 68 6 413 58100 00 3 68 6 413 58100 00 DIV 0 Comparason with industryTRREPS Growth Dividend Ratio P EEPS EP A DIV 0 青青岛岛海海尔尔1 2030 00 0 68 25 6412 14 4 56 小小天天鹅鹅A A0 9035 69 0 00 39 4612 00 4 54 合合肥肥三三洋洋0 9027 00 0 67 30 8816 18 7 29 EPS growth index Year2009200820072006 EPS0 620 350 200 15 E2 391 951 731 62 EPS E25 94 17 95 11 56 9 26 EPS Growth 77 14 75 00 33 33 EPS E AVG 16 18 EPS CAGR42 59 QuarterlyQ4Q3Q2Q1Q409Q3 EPS growth 46 52 77 91 Sales growth index Yearly2009200820072006 Sales2 021 731 082 73634 66510 78 Growth 87 71 24 CAGR41 QuarterlyQ4Q3Q2Q1Q409Q3 Sales growth 83 90 87 80 RES growth index Yearly2009200820072006 Retained Earnings345 91201 22127 5892 90 Shares outstanding333 00333 00333 00333 00 RES1 040 600 380 28 Growth 72 58 37 CAGR38 91 QuarterlyQ4Q3Q2Q1Q409Q3 Retained Earnings471 94427 40345 91294 26 Shares outstanding333 00333 00333 00333 00 RES DIV 0 DIV 0 1 421 281 040 88 Growth 90 122 74 78 Q2Q1Q409Q3 99 0583 10483 10462 441 372 90344 29262 81231 82 471 94427 40345 91294 26 333 00333 00333 00333 00 1 421 281 040 88 P CE AOM SMShare outstanding 8 5728 02 25 77 1 338 52 12 5142 64 20 62 547 66 18 6337 89 33 36 333 00 Q2Q1 79 55 Q2Q1 72 72 Q2Q1Q408Q3Q2Q1 248 52192 81199 22165 23145 30162 36 333 00333 00333 00333 00333 00333 00 0 750 580 600 500 440 49 71 19 Q2Q1Q408Q3Q2Q1 62 44162 44162 44150 9550 9550 95 186 08130 37136 78114 2994 35111 41 248 52192 81199 22165 23145 30162 36 333 00333 00333 00333 00333 00333 00 0 750 580 600 500 440 49 Latest Year200920082007 Revenue mil Growth DIV 0 DIV 0 CAGR DIV 0 Est growth rate 10 years growth forecast YearReve Rev growth Growth rate 20090 00 20100 000 00 20110 000 00 20120 000 00 20130 000 00 20140 000 00 20150 000 00 20160 000 00 20170 000 00 20180 000 00 20190 000 00 3years ROA record YearRev AssetRev Asset 20090 00 DIV 0 20080 00 DIV 0 20070 00 DIV 0 AVG DIV 0 3years Equity Asset record YearE A 2009 2008 2007 AVG 0 00 10 years growth forecast YearReve Rev AssetAssetE AEquity 20090 00 20100 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 0 00 DIV 0 20110 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 0 00 DIV 0 20120 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 0 00 DIV 0 20130 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 0 00 DIV 0 20140 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 0 00 DIV 0 20150 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 0 00 DIV 0 20160 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 0 00 DIV 0 20170 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 0 00 DIV 0 20180 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 0 00 DIV 0 20190 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 0 00 DIV 0 3years NOPM record YearReve CGSSGAR DNOPNOPM 20090 000 00 DIV 0 20080 000 00 DIV 0 20070 000 00 DIV 0 Avg NOPM DIV 0 10 years growth forecast YearReve NOPMNOP est 20090 00 20100 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 20110 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 20120 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 20130 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 20140 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 20150 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 20160 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 20170 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 20180 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 20190 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 Tax rate record in the past YearRev before taxtaxtax rate 2009 DIV 0 2008 DIV 0 2007 DIV 0 Avg DIV 0 10 years growth forecast YearNOPTax rateTaxNOPAT 20090 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2010 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2011 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2012 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2013 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2014 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2015 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2016 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2017 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2018 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2019 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 10 years RE forecastShares Outstanding mil 333 00 YearNOPATCost of Common EquityEquityRERE Share 2009 DIV 0 3 68 0 00 2010 DIV 0 3 68 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2011 DIV 0 3 68 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2012 DIV 0 3 68 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2013 DIV 0 3 68 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2014 DIV 0 3 68 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2015 DIV 0 3 68 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2016 DIV 0 3 68 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2017 DIV 0 3 68 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2018 DIV 0 3 68 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2019 DIV 0 3 68 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 3year invest depreciation record YearRev InvestInvest Depre Depre Net invest 20090 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 0 00 20080 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 0 00 20070 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 0 00 Avg DIV 0 DIV 0 10 years growth forecast YearRev InvestDepre Net invest 2009 20100 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 20110 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 20120 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 20130 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 20140 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 20150 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 20160 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 20170 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 20180 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 20190 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 Working capital record in the past YearRev Acc Rece InventoryAcc Pay Working Cap Wor Cap 20090 000 00 DIV 0 20080 000 00 DIV 0 20070 000 00 DIV 0 Avg DIV 0 10 years growth forecast YearReve Rev growth Wor Cap 20090 00 20100 000 00 DIV 0 20110 000 00 DIV 0 20120 000 00 DIV 0 20130 000 00 DIV 0 20140 000 00 DIV 0 20150 000 00 DIV 0 20160 000 00 DIV 0 20170 000 00 DIV 0 20180 000 00 DIV 0 20190 000 00 DIV 0 Disc Eccess Return Period FCFF DIV 0 Disc Residual Value DIV 0 Short Term Assets1 814 02 Total Corporate Value DIV 0 RE growth2 Total Corporate Value DIV 0 Less Debt0 00 Less Perferred Stocks0 00 Less Short Term Liabilities1 421 39 Total Value to Common Equity DIV 0 Intrinsic Stock Value assessed by DCF DIV 0 10 years growth forecast YearReve NOPATNet investWor Cap FCFF 20090 00 20100 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 20110 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 20120 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 20130 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 20140 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 20150 00 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 DIV 0 2016