中级宏观经济学讲义8ppt课件.ppt

IntermediateMacroeconomics 8 1 Realv s NominalI Rate TheFisherequation 1percentagepointI 1percentagepointThisone for onerelationbetweentheinflationrateandnominali rateiscalledtheFishereffect 2 NominalInterestRate Thequantitytheory theFisherequationtherateofmoneysupply intherateofinflation inthenominalinterestrate KeynesianChain 3 NominalInterestRate 4 ExAntev s ExPost Ishighinflationratealwaysaccompaniedbyhighi rate 5 一年期存贷款基准利率 CPI变动 6 ExAntev s ExPostreali rate 朋友向你借1000元 商量好一年后本息合计1100元 那么你的实际收益率 本次借贷的实际利率 为多少 现在通胀率为3 事前r exanterealinterestrate 7 此一年通胀率为8 事后r expostrealinterestrate 2 7 ExAntev s ExPostreali rate 名义利率更多取决于预期通胀率而非现实通胀率只是通胀一般有持续性 所以高通胀常伴随高利率未预期的通胀不一定伴随高利率 8 TheDemandforMoney Thecostofholdingmoney 9 Inflation Inflation TheoverallincreaseinpricesHyperinflation extraordinaryhighinflation inflationrate 50 month 10 Inflation 2007新年伊始 老板宣布给所有员工加薪5 全公司欢声雷动 截止8月居民消费者价格指数同比上升6 5 感叹evilinflation夺走了你新增的收入 今年年底 老板决定再次给员工加薪5 你会作何反应 11 TheSocialCostsofInflation UnexpectedinflationRedistributewealthamongindividualsHurtindividualsonfixedpensionsPsychologicalcosts mostpeoplearerisk averse 12 TheSocialCostsofInflation ExpectedinflationShoe leathercostMenucostPossiblelowerrelativepriceTaxliabilityConfusioninvaluemeasuring 13 HowToStopaHyperinflation Ifthequantitytheoryweretrue idoesnotaffectmoneydemand stabilizemoneysupple stabilizeP 14 HowToStopaHyperinflation However sincetheFishereffectholdsStabilizemoneysupply growthrateofMS 0 Expectedinflationrate Moneydemand MoneysupplyisfixedThevalueofmoney Priceofallothergoods easytofallintodeflation 15 HowToStopaHyperinflation HowtostopahyperinflationwithoutcausingdeflationwithFisherEffectbeingtrue 16 HowToStopaHyperinflation P i M 0 r Time Endofinflation 17 NaturalRateofUnemployment DefinitionsNaturalrateofunemployment theaveragerateofunemploymentaroundwhichtheeconomyfluctuatesMiseryindex thesumofinflationandunemploymentrates 18 FrictionalUnemployment 1streason Ittakestimetomatchworkersandjobse g technologyimprovement newproductionprocessesornewvarietiesofgoodsdifferentlocationsandsectors 19 FrictionalUnemployment 1streason PublicpolicyimplicationUnemploymentinsuranceReduceuncertaintyaboutincomesothateconomicallyandmentally BettermatchingHoweverlesspressuretosearchfornewjobMorelikelytoturndownunattractiveoffers 20 WaitUnemployment 2ndreason Wagerigidity thefailureofthewagetoadjustuntilLS LD W P L RealWage S D E 21 Minimum wagelaws WaitUnemployment 2ndreason W P 22 WaitUnemployment 2ndreason UnionsandcollectivebargainingThewagesofworkersintheunionaredeterminednotbytheeq mofSandDbutbycollectivebargainingbetweenunionleadersandfirmmanagement wagesishigherthantheeq mlevel 23 WaitUnemployment 2ndreason Wagesfornon unionizedworkers duetounioninotherfirms unemploymentrate Insiders outsiders outsidersbearthecostofhigherwages 24 WaitUnemployment 2ndreason EfficiencywagesNutritionLaborturnoverrateAveragequalityoftheworkforceMoralhazardproblem 25 PatternsofUnemploym