美国大萧条时期1929～1932 年.doc

1929年美国经济大萧条的原因 1929年美国经济大萧条的原因 以下摘自美国吉尔伯著美国经济史699702页 经济学界有各种各样的商业循环理论，在分析大萧条的原因时，众说纷纭，莫衷一是。对于萧条原因最好的说明，也许就是一个或几个社会集团支出减少的幅度超过了其它社会集团支出增加的幅度。1929年，消费者购买了国民生产总值的72%，工商业者投资消费了18%，联邦、州和地方政府使用了略少于10%，其余的用于出口。 在19291930年，由于投资者和消费者减少了大约一百五十亿美元的支出，国民生产总值的支出约减少了一百四十亿美元。政府支出虽稍有增加，但其影响微不足道。反映投资和消费支出有所减少的是：劳动力市场上解雇和失业增多了，工商业的销售额和利润降低了。根据上述分析，可见只要查明消费者支出和企业投资所以减少的来由，既能确定这次大萧条的产生原因了。 今天，通过历史剖释，可以清楚看出：在二十年代已经存在着当时被人忽视或漠视的若干不利于经济发展的趋向。上面已经指出，农业一直没有从战后萧条中完全恢复过来，农民在这个时期始终贫困。而且，所谓工业部门工资水平较高，其中不少是假象。在这十年内，新机器的应用把大批工人排挤掉了。例如，在19201929年，工业总产值几乎增加了50%，而工业工人人数却没有增多，交通运输业职工实际上还有所减少。在工资水平很低的服务行业，工人增加最多，其中毫无疑问也包括了许多因技术进步而失业的技术工人。因此那些表示工资略有提高的统计数字，看来没有把真实情况反映出来。由于工农群众是基本消费者，这两类人遇到经济困难对消费品市场一定会有影响。 在这些情况下，二十年代广告的扩大和分期付款赊销的增加就会产生不良后果。分期付款赊销竭力膨胀消费品市场。在19241929年，分期付款销售售额约从二十亿美元增为三十五亿美元，由此可见其增长率大得惊人了。无庸置疑，采用分期付款的赊销办法，增加了小汽车、收音机、家具、家庭电气用具等耐用消费品的销售额。然而分期付款销售办法的推广使用，也表明这样一个事实：不增加贷款，消费品市场就不可能容纳工业部门生产出来的大量产品。而且，从经济观点来看，这种销贷方式本身孕育着某种危险性；只要削减消费信贷即分期付款赊销，消费者的购置就很可能减少。看来，1929年就发生了这种情况。 二十年代工业生产之所以能扩大，是由于对新工厂、新设备的巨额投资。这项投资使建筑业、机床制造业以及钢铁工业等有关部门雇用了大批工人。因此，资本支出或投资一减少，各生产资料生产部门的工人就会大批失业。到1929年，消费品市场容纳不了增产的商品，也就不再需要扩充厂房和设备了。例如，据估计1929年美国整个工业的开工率只达到80%。在这些条件下，无怪乎投资额(用1958年美元计算)从1929年的四百零四亿美元降为1930年的二百七十四亿美元，进而减少到1932年的四十七亿美元了。投资的缩减则导致了生产资料生产企业的破产和工人的失业。这个问题因住房建筑的减少而更加严重起来。住房营造在1925年达到登峰造极的地步，此后就江河日下了。1929年动工兴建的住房只有五十万幢(1925年约有一百万幢)。1927年以后，汽车工业也急剧衰落。 我们不想回答究竞生产资料的生产先下降还是消费品的生产先减少达样一个问题；显然，两者互有影响。生产资料生产部门的工人失业，会使消费品的销售额减少，从而导致消费品生产部门工人的失业。而消费品销售额的减少又反过来使投资进一步缩减，这两大部类愈演愈烈的相互作用驱使生产日益下降，失业率不断上升。 甚至诸如低税率和高利润等有利因素也可能助长了危机自爆发。现在看来，那个时期增加的收入大半落入少数人或少数家族的腰包了。1934年布鲁金斯研究所发表的一篇研究二十年代经济问题的论文这样写道： “美国呈现出了收入分配日益不均的趋势，至少在二十年代前后是如此。这就是说，这个时期人民群众的收入有所增长，而上层阶层的收入水平提高得更快。由于随着上层阶层高额收入的实现，他们的收入中节约部分增加得比消费部分快，也就出现了大富豪及其家族把积累的收入越来越多地作为投资的趋势。” 从经济观点来看，二十年代收入的分配有紧缩消费来增加投资的趋向。回顾这一段历史，可以看出消费者手头钱多些，投资者手里钱少些，国民经济也许会稳定些。1929年在某种程度上由银行信用造成的股票市场的繁荣也反映了资金过剩，使资本家投资于购建厂房设备无利可图。 二十年代的繁荣，主要归因于自然资源充裕，工农业生产增长，技术进步，劳动生产率提高，消费扩大和对外贸易兴旺。然而，许多美国人的贫困处境和国民经济之存在某些薄弱环节，导致了大萧条的爆发。尽管如此，直到二十年代未，大多数美国人还盲目乐观地相信繁荣仍将继续下去。 评论： 一 美国1920年代是一个繁荣的时代，由于繁荣，所以消费需求是旺盛的。正是由于这种消费需求的旺盛，刺激了投资，并且借着旺盛需求的东风，生产者的投资与产品促销行为有过之而无不及。因此就出现了规模惊人的广告促销与分期付款赊销行为，这种使消费者“先花未来钱”的做法潜存着非常大的风险，一个是它刺激抬升了资本投资的规模，另外一个是消费者能否最终付清赊销款。如果不能付清款项，那么投资就不能获得合理补偿，巨大的投资规模就有可能导致经济陷于巨大的危机。 在这里要强调的是：分期付款赊销的广告促销等手段进一步造成了旺盛的消费需求，而这种需求又必然刺激投资的迅速增长。而当这种消费需求最终衰弱下来时，这些被消费需求抬举进场的资本，就必然陷于危机的困境。反过来说，如果没有这些旺盛的消费行为，就不可能有这么大的投资行为，也不就可能产生1929年的危机。 市场经济的每次危机，都是这样，由高度的消费旺盛而引起，没有这种消费旺盛，就没有资本投入，也就没有危机可言。 资本以追求利润为唯一目的，但资本的这种目的及由此而引发的行为，必须要借助于一定的外在条件才能实现出来，这个外在条件，就是消费需求旺盛的拉动。因此，当社会经济以消费为目的而形成一个热潮时，资本则在这个热潮中实施着自己的目的-利润积累。在此，消费为社会整体的目的，而逐利则是资本方面的目的-这是局部目的。 二 这个道理应该给当今的我们提供一个深刻的教训：消费需求切不可人为抬升得太过头。比如，中国的“扩大内需”政策切不可搞过头。凡是超出社会与个人经济能力而扩大的消费需求，必定包含着危机的因素，因为这种消费需求是不可能长久维持下去的，这样，在它的刺激下所形成的更大的投资就有可能变成危机的因素。就象美国1920年代，通过信贷消费所刺激起一个庞大的投资，最终演变为大危机、大萧条的因素。The Great DepressionSocial Issues, 1929-1942Americas future appeared to shine brightly for most Americans when Herbert Hoover was inaugurated president in 1929. His personal qualifications and penchant for efficient planning made Hoover appear to be the right man to head the executive branch. However, the seeds of a depression had been planted in an era of prosperity that was unevenly distributed. In particular, the depression had already sprouted on the American farm and in certain industries. The Hoover term was just months old when the nation sustained the most ruinous business collapse in its history. The stock market crashed in the fall of 1929. On just one day, October 29, frantic traders sold off 16,400,000 shares of stock. At years end, the government determined that investors in the market had lost some $40 billion. Previous to the 1929 collapse, business had begun to falter. Following the crash, the United States continued to decline steadily into the most profound depression of its history. Banks failed, millions of citizens suddenly had no savings. Factories locked their gates, shops were shuttered forever, and most remaining businesses struggled to survive. Local governments faced great difficulty with collecting taxes to keep services going. Hoovers administration made a bad mistake when Congress, caving in to special interests, passed the Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act in 1930. The measure would hike up tariffs to prohibitively high levels. The president signed the bill into law over the objections of more than 1,000 economists. Every major trading nation protested against the law and many immediately retaliated by raising their tariffs. The impacts on international trade were catastrophic. This and other effects caused international trade to grind nearly to a standstill; the depression spread worldwide. Meanwhile, the president and business leaders tried to convince the citizenry that recovery was imminent, but the nations economic health steadily worsened. In spite of widespread hardship, Hoover maintained that federal relief was not necessary. Farm prices dropped to record lows and bitter farmers tried to ward off foreclosers with pitchforks. By the dawn of the next decade, 4,340,000 Americans were out of work. More than eight million were on the street a year later. Laid-off workers agitated for drastic government remedies. More than 32,000 other businesses went bankrupt and at least 5,000 banks failed. Wretched men, including veterans, looked for work, hawked apples on sidewalks, dined in soup kitchens, passed the time in shantytowns dubbed Hoovervilles, and some moved between them in railroad boxcars. It was a desperate time for families, starvation stalked the land, and a great drought ruined numerous farms, forcing mass migration. The Hoover administration attempted to respond by launching a road, public building, and airport construction program, and increasing the countrys credit facilities, including strengthening the banking system. Most significantly, the administration established the Reconstruction Finance Corporation (RFC) with $2 billion to shore up overwhelmed banks, railroads, factories, and farmers. The actions taken signified, for the first time, the U.S. governments willingness to assume responsibility for rescuing the economy by overt intervention in business affairs. Nevertheless, the Depression persisted throughout the nation. A thirst for change The electorate clamored for changes. The Republicans renominated Hoover, and the Democrats nominated Franklin D. Roosevelt. His energetic, confident campaign rhetoric promoted something specifically for the forgotten man a new deal. Roosevelt went on to a decisive victory. At his inauguration in March 1933, Roosevelt declared in his lilting style, Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is, fear itself needless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. San Antonio, Texas The nation needed immediate relief, recovery from economic collapse, and reform to avoid future depressions, so relief, recovery and reform became Roosevelts goals when he took the helm. At his side stood a Democratic Congress, prepared to enact the measures he proposed. Congress passed a historic series of significant bills, most of which had originated in the White House, in just shy of a whirlwind 100 days. Congress also enacted several important relief and reform measures in the summer of 1935 sometimes called the Second Hundred Days. Significant legislation: One act created the Federal Emergency Relief Administration to be administered by Harry Hopkins. For relief or for wages on public works, it would eventually pay out about $3 billion. Three million young men found work in road building, forestry labor and flood control through the establishment of the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC). The Works Progress Administration (WPA) of 1935 would grow out of the previous two agencies. The Emergency Banking Act provided the president with the means to reopen viable banks and regulate banking. Another law insured bank deposits up to $5,000, and later, $10,000. A new Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) assisted homeowners. Farmers who voluntarily decreased the acreage of specified crops could become recipients of subsidies from the Agricultural Adjustment Administration (AAA), set up by the government. One particularly significant act created the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). The vast, ambitious project, coupled with agricultural and industrial planning, would exploit the great river basins resources with government dams and hydroelectric plants.Progress was made on the labor front: The National Recovery Administration (NRA) came into being through a significant measure in 1933. The NRA attempted to revive industry by raising wages, reducing work hours and reining in unbridled competition. The NRA was ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in 1935; however, the majority of its collective bargaining stipulations survived in two subsequent bills. Employees were guaranteed the right to negotiate with employers through unions of their choosing by the Wagner Act of 1935, and it established a Labor Relations Board as a forum for dispute resolution. The act bolstered the American Federation of Labor, and pointed to the inception of the Congress of Industrial Organizations (CIO), another labor movement. The Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 promulgated a 44-hour workweek with time-and-a-half for overtime and pegged a minimum wage of 25 cents an hour. The act also provided that the the hours would drop to 40 and the wage would incrementally rise to 40 cents. In addition, the bill made child labor under the age of 16 illegal.Relief, recovery and reform also affected the social welfare. The U.S. government could reach out in the widest way to alleviate human misery such was the assumption that underlay the New Deal. Beginning in 1935, Congress enacted Social Security laws (and later amendments) that provided pensions to the aged, benefit payments to dependent mothers, crippled children and blind people, and unemployment insurance. To fund all the new legislation, government spending rose. Spending in 1916 was $697 million; in 1936 it was $9 billion. The government modified taxes to tap wealthy people the most, who could take it in stride most easily. The rich, conservatives, numerous businessmen and those who were all three vigorously opposed the New Deal. But the election of 1936 triggered a nationwide endorsement of FDR, who carried every state except Vermont and Maine. War looms Franklin Roosevelt saw his domestic program inexorably superseded by war, much like a predecessor, Woodrow Wilson. The League of Nations had folded by the time FDR took office. Clamoring for their perceived share of the worlds pie, Germany, Italy and Japan marched onto the world stage. Germany came under the sway of Adolf Hitler and his National Socialist Party; Italy embraced Benito Mussolinis brand of fascism; and military rulers gripped Japan. Those leaders were warlike dictators committed to forging vast empires by armed might. When Japan invaded Manchuria in 1931 and China in 1937, free peoples recoiled. Italy goose stepped into Ethiopia in 1935. The Third Reich reoccupied the Rhineland in 1936 and absorbed Austria in 1938. Isolationists believed the nation could remain aloof between the oceans and most Americans went about their business trying to disregard the specter rising over the horizon. However, the president and his secretary of state, Cordell Hull, had no truck with isolationism and repeatedly warned the nation that when one country was threatened by an imperial bully, all countries were threatened. In the fall of 1937, Roosevelt called for action to isolate the aggressive powers, but his words fell on a hard-of-hearing Congress and most of the public had their minds elsewhere. In fact, Congress enacted several neutrality measures between 1935 and 1939 that prevented the nation from giving financial credit to or trading with any nation engaged in armed conflict. However, their effect was to invite aggression, because if Hitler struck at France or Great Britain, they could not hope for the United States to furnish them with arms or money. To prevent the United States from entering the war in western Europe, which broke out when Hitlers divisions invaded Poland in September 1939, isolationists established the America First Committee in 1940. However, administration leaders continued to condemn Germany and the other dictatorships. They strove to win Latin Americas and Canadas friendship, and commenced to bolster the armed services. Meanwhile, more Americans arrived at the notion that the United States might be next to fall under Germanys sway if western Europe fell. War transforms the nations economy The United States had not fully put its economic woes behind it by the time Japanese air and sea forces punched their fist through Americas back door at Pearl Harbor in December 1941. Even near the end of the Depression, unemployment remained high. The 1940 census counted 11.1 percent of U.S. heads of household as unemployed. However, a deep, latent productive capacity existed within American industry. In anger, the nation swiftly changed gears from a peacetime to wartime footing that mobilized the populace and numerous industrial sectors. In January 1942 the president called for unheard-of production goals. In that year alone, he wanted 60,000 warplanes, 45,000 tanks, 20,000 antiaircraft guns and 18 million tons of merchant shipping. Labor, farms, mines, factories, trading houses, investment firms, communications even cultural and educational institutions were enlisted into the war effort. The nation accumulated big money and generated huge new industries to mass produce planes, ships, armored vehicles and numerous other items. Major population shifts occurred as people headed to new jobs. The draft helped bring the armed forces of the United States to more than 15 million members. Approximately 65 million men and women were in uniform or worked in war-related jobs by the end of 1943. Massive unemployment became a thing of the past and the Great Depression was swallowed up in the worldwide effort to defeat the Axis powers of Japan, Germany and Italy. Off-site search results for The Great Depression.Roaring 20s and the Great Depression History Resources. The Economic Effects On Families Of The Great Depression The Great Depression The Great Depression - Documenting America The Great Depression - Documenting America Library of Congress The Great Depression & the New Deal Great