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LecturePresentationSoftwaretoaccompanyInvestmentAnalysisandPortfolioManagementSeventhEditionbyFrankK Reilly KeithC Brown Chapter12 Chapter12 MacroeconomicandMarketAnalysis TheGlobalAssetAllocationDecision Questionstobeanswered Whataretheexpectedandtheempiricalrelationshipsbetweeneconomicactivityandsecuritymarkets Whatisthemacroeconomicapproachtoestimatingfuturemarketreturns Chapter12 Whatarethemajormacroeconomictechniquesusedtoprojectthesecuritiesmarket Whatistheleadingeconomicindicatorapproach Whatareitsusesandshortcomingsandcanitbeusedtopredictstockprices Whataretheexpectedandtheempiricalrelationshipsbetweenthegrowthofthemoneysupplyandstockprices Chapter12 Whatismeantbyexcessliquidityandhowisitmeasured WhatistheeffectofmonetarypolicyonstockpricesintheUnitedStatesandaroundtheworld Whataretheexpectedandtheempiricalrelationshipsbetweeninflation interestrates andbondprices Whataretheexpectedandempiricalrelationshipsbetweeninflationandstockprices Chapter12 Whenanalyzingworldsecuritymarkets whatistherelationshipbetweeninflationandinterestratesinalternativecountries Whatistheeffectofinflationandinterestratesonexchangerates Howdothebasicvaluationvariablesdifferamongcountries HowdostockpricereturnsamongcountriescorrelatewhenconsideringdomesticreturnsandreturnsinU S dollars Chapter12 Whatfactorsshouldbeconsideredwhenanalyzingtheoutlookforaforeigneconomyanditsstockandbondmarket Whatistheassetallocationprocedureforaglobalportfolio Foraworldassetallocation whatismeantbynormalweighting underweighting andoverweighting EconomiesandMarkets AstrongrelationshipexistsbetweentheeconomyandthestockmarketSecuritymarketsreflectwhatisgoingoninaneconomybecausethevalueofaninvestmentisdeterminedbyitsexpectedcashflowsrequiredrateofreturn EconomicActivityandSecurityMarkets StockMarketAsALeadingIndicatorStockpricesreflectexpectationsofearnings dividends andinterestratesStockmarketreactstovariousleadingindicatorseriesStockpricesconsistentlyturnbeforetheeconomydoes CyclicalIndicatorApproachtoForecastingtheEconomy Thisapproachcontendsthattheaggregateeconomyexpandsandcontractsindiscernableperiods CyclicalIndicatorApproachtoForecastingtheEconomy NationalBureauofEconomicResearch NBER CyclicalindicatorcategoriesleadingindicatorscoincidentindicatorslaggingindicatorsCompositeseriesandratioofseries CyclicalIndicatorCategories Leadingindicators economicseriesthatusuallyreachpeaksortroughsbeforecorrespondingpeaksortroughsinaggregateeconomyactivityCoincidentindicators economicseriesthathavepeaksandtroughsthatroughlycoincidewiththepeaksandtroughsinthebusinesscycle CyclicalIndicatorCategories Laggingindicators economicseriesthatexperiencetheirpeaksandtroughsafterthoseoftheaggregateeconomySelectedseries economicseriesthatdonotfallintooneofthethreemaingroups CyclicalIndicatorApproachtoForecastingtheEconomy Analyticalmeasuresofperformancediffusionindexestrendsratesofchangedirectionofchangecomparisonwithpreviouscycles CyclicalIndicatorApproachtoForecastingtheEconomy Limitationsofcyclicalindicatorapproachhighvariabilitycurrencyofthedataandrevisionsnoseriesreflectstheservicesectornoseriesrepresentstheglobaleconomypoliticalandinternationaldevelopmentsarenotfactoredintoastatisticalsystem CyclicalIndicatorApproachtoForecastingtheEconomy LeadingindicatorsandstockpricesOtherleadingindicatorseriesCIBCR Long leadingindexleadingemploymentindexLeadinginflationindexAnalysisofalternativeleadingindicatorsofinflationInternationalleadingindicatorseriesSurveyofsentimentandexpectations MonetaryVariables theEconomy andStockPrices MoneysupplyandtheeconomyMoneysupplyandstockpricesExcessliquidityandstockpricesyeartoyearpercentagechangeinM2moneysupplyadjustedforsmalltimedepositslesstheyear to yearpercentagechangeinnominalGDP MoneySupplyandtheEconomy Declinesintherateofgrowthofthemoneysupplyhaveprecededbusinesscontractionbyanaverageof20monthsIncreasesintherateofgrowthofthemoneysupplyhaveprecededeconomicexpansionsbyabout8months MoneySupplyandStockPrices ExcessLiquidityandStockPricesHistoricalExcessLiquidityintheUnitedStatesHistoricalExcessLiquidityinForeignCountries MonetaryVariables theEconomy andStockPrices Othereconomicvariablesandstockpricesgrowthinindustrialproductionchangesintheriskpremiumtwistsintheyieldcurvemeasuresofunanticipatedinflationchangesinexpectedinflationduringperiodsofvolatileinflation Inflation InterestRates andSecurityPrices InflationandinterestratesgenerallymovetogetherinvestorsarenotgoodatpredictinginflationInflationratesandbondpricesnegativerelationshipmoreeffectonlongertermbondsInterestratesandstockpricesnotdirectandnotconsistenteffectvariesovertime AnalysisofWorldSecurityMarkets Goldman Sachs Co WorldInvestingStrategyHighlightsInflationandexchangeratesCorrelationsamongreturnsIndividualcountrystockpricechangesIndividualcountryanalysisWorldassetallocation TheInternetInvestmentsOnline www dri mcgraw TheInternetInvestmentsOnline www treasury boi iewww dkb co jp english index htmlwww boj or jp en www bankofengland co ukwww bundesbank de index e htmlwww banque france fr gb home htmwww ecb int EndofChapter12TheAnalysisofAlternativeEconomies
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