信息管理.doc

Space-enabled information environment for crisis management. Scenario-based analysis and evaluation in an operational environment1. IntroductionSpace community holds strong belief that space applications could be used more intensively for coordination of crisis management activities. At the same time emergency services user have difficulties in understanding what exactly space can offer them and what are the limitations. To overcome these communication problems and to facilitate evaluation of actual benefits a special methodology has been developed. The research has been conducted within the framework of the Foresight project “Future of space technologies in Poland”, which aimed at identifying the most promising space applications within a perspective of year 2020. It also builds upon experience from demonstration and evaluation organised as an element of the EU Astro+ project.2. Scenario-based analysisThe approach is based upon development of several scenarios covering the most common large-scale natural and man-made threats. Each scenario is run twiceassuming conventional means and with assumption of extensive use of space technologies (navigation, observation andwhen relevantcommunication) representing the information environment enhancing situation awareness and command and control. Comparison of results allows evaluation of actual efficiency of employing space systems into crisis management operations.It should be emphasised that our experience is very encouraging and we find such methodology efficient, both as an analytical tool and as an opportunity to bring together providers and users of space technologies. This approach can be used to investigate promising areas for application of space technologies in different types of disaster management activities, including large-scale international humanitarian missions. 2.1. Case 1earthquakeinternational aidA natural earthquake had occurred in Novashka, a small Eastern European country, east of European Union borders. European teams were committed to support rescue operation. Archive satellite images were used to provide international teams with maps of unknown terrain. A few hours later Situation Centre (in Brussels) recommended priority areas for allocation of international aid, using damage evaluation based on comparison of archive images and scenes taken after the event. Teams in the field were using satellite communication to update and exchange GIS information about situation in the area and to access analysis provided by Situation Centre. The same GIS information allowed to present strategic situation to top-level decision makers gathered in Situation Centre. This briefing was supported by teleconferences with commanders in the field.Soon afterwards it was discovered that a dam retaining a lake above a populated area had been partially damaged. Remote work based on video transmission via satellite enabled experts called to Situation Centre to cooperate with rescue personnel on the dam and to remotely evaluate a risk of total collapse of the damage. The situation was presented to local authorities and decision about evacuation was taken.Satellite images-derived digital elevation model was used to anticipate an extent of potential flood and to prioritise evacuation activities. Information about endangered areas together with location of assembly areas and refugee camps were presented on satellite maps, printed locally and distributed among local population.Satellite navigation was used throughout the whole operation to facilitate coordination of activities. All units were able to locate oneself on maps (developed from satellite images) and commanders were able to track all units. Furthermore each unit was able to see location of all other units in their neighbourhood.This field exercise has been run within the framework of the Astro+ project and its results has been reported separately. 2.2. Case 2floodpersonal rescueThe real world scenario of large-scale flood has been used to evaluate the added value created by extensive use of space technologies. EO data has been used to update the conventional forecasting of flood extent.Fig. 1 summarises the importance of realistic flood predictions. The red arrows present the route planned to be used by the rescue forces. Basing on the conventional forecasting, this is a fully feasible strategy.空间功能的信息管理环境危机。情景为基础的分析和评价业务环境1。介绍航天界认为坚定地认为，空间应用可用于危机管理活动的协调工作更加深入。同时，紧急服务用户在了解究竟是什么空间，可以为他们提供困难，有什么限制。为了克服这些通信问题，并促进一个特别的方法已经发展成真正的效益评价。这项研究是在项目的前瞻“空间技术的未来在波兰”，这是确定最有希望的空间应用的框架内进行的，旨在在2020年的观点。它还建立在从示范和作为欧盟举办的天文因素评估经验+项目。2。基于场景分析方法的基础是发展包括最常见的大规模自然和人为的威胁的若干方案。每一个方案是运行两次，承担传统的手段和空间技术的广泛运用假设（导航，观察和，当有关的通信）代表信息环境增强大局意识，指挥和控制。比较的结果可以对聘用到危机管理行动的空间系统的实际效率的评估。应当强调的是我们的经验是非常令人鼓舞，我们发现既作为一种分析工具，此种方法的效率，并以此为契机，汇聚提供者和使用者的空间技术。这种方法可以用来研究在灾害管理活动，包括大型国际人道主义任务的不同类型的空间技术的应用前景看好的领域。2.1。案例1 -地震的国际援助自然地震发生在Novashka，东欧一个小国，欧洲联盟东部边界。欧洲球队都致力于支持救援行动。存档卫星图像被用来提供地形图不明的国际队。几个小时后情况中心（布鲁塞尔）建议的国际援助分配的优先领域，使用破坏评价的档案图像和场景，在事件发生后采取的比较的基础。在实地队正在利用卫星通信和交流，更新地理信息系统有关该地区局势的资料和访问分析中心提供的情况。同样的地理信息系统允许当前战略形势下高层决策者的情况中心聚集。本次通报的支持，与战地指挥官在电话会议。不久人们发现，一个以上的堤坝有一居民区湖已部分损坏。远程工作，通过卫星视频传输的要求使情况中心合作，在堤坝上搜救人员和远程评估的损害专家全面崩溃的危险。这种情况已提交给地方当局和有关决定采取撤离。卫星图像来源的数字高程模型，用于预测洪水的潜在范围，优先撤离的活动。关于濒危地区的资料，连同集结区和难民营的地点提出了关于在当地印刷的卫星地图，以及当地居民之间的分配。卫星导航是在整个行动中所用，以促进活动的协调。各单位都能够找到自己在地图上（发达国家的卫星图象）和指挥官能够追踪所有单位。而且每个单位可以看到在其附近的所有其他单位的位置。这一领域的工作已经在运行的天文框架+项目，其成果已被单独