全台降雨强度公式分析结果.doc

全台降雨強度公式分析結果本研究成果為執行水資源局”水文設計應用手冊”研究計畫之部分成果，頻率分析資料係採用成大游保杉教授之分析結果。研究中採用Horner降雨強度公式式中It為平均降雨強度(mm/hr)；t為降雨延時(min)。台灣各區Horner公式係數a, b, c，以及相關係數如表所列。表1 台灣北區雨量站Horner公式係數與相關係數流域名雨量站名重現期參數2年5年10年25年50年100年200年冬山河冬山a652.90997.621339.052037.462950.414625.928183.97b21.9229.2938.6557.7279.69112.10160.71c0.53750.54740.56060.58750.61700.65800.7151R20.99770.99610.99430.98990.98450.97670.9664冬山河新寮a733.80799.81836.96866.59873.42865.99844.50b22.2621.0222.4125.2527.6529.9631.88c0.52170.47960.45390.42150.39680.37110.3442R20.98720.98810.98960.99000.98700.97840.9606南澳溪大元山a466.41777.551044.311461.671835.482268.322775.22b4.8516.3026.1340.3751.8063.7376.23c0.42640.44800.46520.48780.50420.52030.5362R20.99770.99480.99390.99360.99340.99290.9919南澳溪武塔a734.19617.24577.40546.29530.33517.71507.81b24.9010.846.062.300.40-1.05-2.18c0.55420.49990.47640.45470.44210.43140.4222R20.99040.99710.99800.99630.99360.99020.9863南澳溪樟林a886.93945.94994.901054.501091.351125.001154.17b47.1645.7845.6045.5845.3245.0644.69c0.53630.50550.49590.48840.48410.48070.4777R20.99440.98420.97290.95510.94060.92550.9103淡水河大豹a924.251028.551163.821373.951556.911766.552005.39b16.4215.2517.2821.1524.6728.7233.25c0.63200.60550.60180.60320.60700.61250.6192R20.99590.99490.99550.99490.99270.98890.9835淡水河中正橋a1767.132546.373290.834741.476457.749137.7613435.59b17.3125.0333.6549.2064.8684.75109.34c0.76790.76790.77590.79690.82040.85060.8872R20.99300.99440.99660.99710.99550.99280.9893淡水河五堵a1047.461155.51896.53620.85486.27395.15333.24b23.3224.0218.429.994.34-0.26-3.68c0.65050.61280.54000.44570.38350.32950.2833R20.99980.99570.99180.98770.98560.98440.9834註：R為相關係數。表1 台灣北區雨量站Horner公式係數與相關係數(續)流域名雨量站名重現期參數2年5年10年25年50年100年200年淡水河火燒寮a571.48626.20631.81629.70625.33620.18615.07b11.739.597.605.253.682.271.01c0.52600.49320.47100.44620.43000.41530.4020R20.99710.99680.99630.99520.99410.99290.9916淡水河台北()a887.041369.491905.133329.115923.7612141.6227384.40b11.0520.2632.1960.0496.70151.66224.58c0.67470.68780.70530.74880.80340.87610.9603R20.99910.99900.99850.99500.98930.97940.9611淡水河孝義(阿玉進水口)a594.16616.42645.37687.02719.34751.76785.88b12.8013.7815.1617.2718.9620.7022.57c0.53330.49860.48770.47980.47640.47410.4730R20.99850.99680.99580.99450.99360.99260.9916淡水河坪林()a789.66586.81520.11481.66470.92467.18468.42b27.559.642.08-3.10-5.17-6.48-7.33c0.56340.47970.44310.41270.39770.38640.3780R20.99970.99820.99740.99710.99680.99660.9962淡水河林口()a1066.012430.093615.305221.826395.197552.328655.39b26.9047.1758.4669.1474.9279.5883.27c0.68320.75600.78900.81650.82970.83950.8466R20.99500.99280.99380.99370.99150.98750.9819淡水河乾溝a1126.78844.29693.87562.53492.86439.31396.81b25.0816.5611.757.174.562.460.72c0.64490.56340.51570.46590.43470.40760.3837R20.99600.99900.99710.99040.98300.97390.9634淡水河梵梵()a351.52470.04572.63725.66861.281019.481210.00b7.278.3510.6014.4418.0922.4627.80c0.43230.41810.41880.42460.43170.44060.4514R20.99460.99130.98650.97800.97050.96220.9532淡水河桶後a599.80563.78562.60574.31587.90603.93621.45b15.4410.437.995.854.693.793.06c0.52100.47230.45430.44010.43320.42830.4248R20.99650.99570.99680.99750.99700.99560.9934表1台灣北區雨量站Horner公式係數與相關係數 (續)流域名雨量站名重現期參數2年5年10年25年50年100年200年淡水河瑞芳()a642.961097.681649.732960.904810.188031.7613693.88b17.2127.6340.4865.0690.05120.19154.94c0.57560.60270.63330.68510.73230.78400.8391R20.99980.99860.99650.99280.98970.98630.9821淡水河碧湖a801.81747.26679.17608.04568.62538.29514.42b24.6217.3811.475.341.91-0.71-2.73c0.58160.52550.48930.45030.42620.40560.3878R20.99520.99680.99650.99520.99390.99270.9916淡水河福山(利莫干)a392.48487.96610.75854.571113.271445.711865.31b7.5112.5520.0133.8846.4259.6572.96c0.46430.44210.45070.47640.50090.52700.5536R20.99420.99060.99010.99220.99490.99670.9956頭前溪梅花a1175.951064.221000.77946.73918.37899.87886.48b30.8624.3320.4916.6314.2712.3910.77c0.65070.57470.53550.49680.47340.45390.4370R20.98930.98560.98530.98460.98350.98180.9795頭前溪清泉a828.961303.762012.203525.145133.457126.469443.42b34.6262.0091.05133.38163.76190.85214.16c0.57360.57210.60200.64870.68130.70980.7338R20.98480.97230.96700.96580.96780.97080.9741頭前溪鳥嘴山a815.82903.85991.641100.461175.971245.951315.06b28.3532.5734.4235.4135.4535.0834.62c0.55630.51750.50790.50110.49770.49510.4933R20.99320.98780.98550.98320.98160.97990.9780頭前溪太閣南a875.89886.21938.811030.321121.581228.951369.02b28.1030.1733.6439.4745.1551.7560.08c0.60710.55470.53760.52550.52190.52130.5243R20.99360.99100.98810.98370.97970.97550.9708蘭陽溪古魯a328.68433.70559.59788.871017.241296.781635.20b8.5813.6318.6524.9728.9431.9033.94c0.36700.37320.39570.43210.46130.49020.5186R20.99390.99540.99790.99830.99470.98700.9751表1 台灣北區雨量站Horner公式係數與相關係數(續)流域名雨量站名重現期參數2年5年10年25年50年100年200年蘭陽溪南山a260.34365.32449.12571.56677.36797.37937.09b4.418.0411.9117.9723.2929.2436.00c0.46110.45460.45800.46620.47420.48330.4935R20.99830.99600.99370.99010.98710.98370.9799蘭陽溪新北成a583.87789.181012.251430.241881.852496.683335.11b14.6417.4221.9230.2438.3848.0059.01c0.55580.54660.55400.57250.59130.61280.6365R20.99910.99960.99960.99780.99490.99090.9859蘭陽溪山腳a515.96474.03442.64408.60387.59369.75354.26b21.0917.7815.6813.2811.6510.148.69c0.44240.38560.35190.31520.29160.27060.2516R20.99460.99570.99460.99110.98680.98080.9730鹽寮溪鹽寮a1219.891419.201361.901218.291101.04984.46876.04b23.1927.5127.3125.1822.8019.8316.53c0.70670.68510.65530.61380.58290.55230.5223R20.99910.99970.99820.99320.98760.98110.9743表2 台灣中區雨量站Horner公式係數與相關係數流域名雨量站名重現期參數2年5年10年25年50年100年200年大甲溪上谷關a370.12419.27437.60456.46468.67480.89492.87b7.529.8810.9412.2913.3214.4915.74c0.47610.43650.41470.39260.37900.36750.3576R20.98970.97970.97530.97090.96820.96570.9634大甲溪平岩山a141.99189.82244.69357.66498.61733.491173.57b-1.641.235.0913.2022.7036.5757.58c0.38320.36820.37610.40070.42920.46700.5175R20.99810.99430.98910.97860.96760.95390.9372大甲溪合歡山()a142.73239.66337.65515.20701.75956.191306.91b-2.271.054.5210.4015.9422.6530.56c0.35400.38310.41120.45090.48240.51550.5501R20.99890.99670.99320.98640.98010.97290.9652大甲溪志佳陽大山a125.66197.94262.36358.13438.19523.94616.18b-1.351.573.696.127.709.0610.29c0.39130.40230.41670.43500.44770.45920.4699R20.99740.99180.98850.98530.98340.98210.9808大甲溪*佳陽山a115.11168.14236.10388.82620.641182.843073.82b-4.86-3.160.399.1822.3348.81102.85c0.37020.37410.39680.44170.49200.56860.6867R20.98970.99130.99350.98810.97850.96810.9618大甲溪松茂()a124.37152.29172.24198.61219.13239.70261.18b-3.00-3.32-3.64-4.15-4.56-5.02-5.47c0.38780.37830.37450.37100.36910.36690.3652R20.99700.99550.99510.99420.99290.99090.9882大甲溪松峰a243.73271.57266.45259.09255.76254.21253.75b5.962.29-1.09-4.09-5.56-6.59-7.34c0.44570.43000.40780.38150.36510.35100.3387R20.99560.99770.99780.99490.99130.98730.9831大甲溪青山()a325.24473.35449.89398.20371.10353.41343.06b12.3919.2313.895.861.41-1.77-3.97c0.48290.47760.43520.37940.34470.31600.2924R20.99510.98640.98640.98910.99100.99260.9937註1：R為相關係數。註2：一般雨量站以最小化為目標函數；標示*者，則以最小化為目標函數；I為頻率分析之降雨強度，為Horner公式推求之降雨強度。表2 台灣中區雨量站Horner公式係數與相關係數(續)流域名雨量站名重現期參數2年5年10年25年50年100年200年大甲溪思源()a203.36246.89283.66334.30373.91414.52456.57b-0.241.132.343.965.186.377.58c0.42630.39100.38200.37720.37610.37600.3768R20.99470.99470.99410.99210.98970.98690.9836大甲溪桃山a215.52290.52334.33385.10420.81454.85487.72b8.489.278.737.797.126.485.90c0.45490.44710.44300.43890.43660.43470.4331R20.99220.98790.98780.98840.98880.98910.9891大甲溪捫山a192.02201.96204.90206.67207.16206.72205.47b-2.04-4.47-5.95-7.47-8.32-8.96-9.41c0.42140.38200.35580.32360.30050.27780.2551R20.99560.99410.99130.98590.98060.97420.9670大甲溪梨山()a152.86211.31252.50306.16346.92388.93431.34b-2.12-1.58-1.00-0.190.431.091.73c0.41960.42790.43310.43910.44330.44740.4512R20.99650.99740.99820.99880.99900.99900.9989大甲溪無明山a175.40170.58180.31199.73217.82238.37261.24b2.17-2.52-4.44-6.05-6.86-7.45-7.89c0.38680.31650.29560.28330.28030.28050.2830R20.99720.99190.98700.98070.97670.97340.9710大甲溪新伯公a1277.49991.10872.46774.55726.99694.27672.48b19.0210.976.261.56-1.09-3.13-4.69c0.67730.59290.55040.50810.48310.46240.4451R20.99950.99910.99880.99810.99750.99670.9959大甲溪達見()a196.99263.69302.10349.15384.91421.61462.47b0.012.734.797.9110.6513.7817.59c0.43000.42140.41370.40560.40120.39800.3966R20.99860.99830.99720.99480.99230.98920.9854大甲溪環山a124.45162.64220.72336.39456.98614.09815.08b-2.52-1.362.6210.5117.6825.6834.31c0.37550.36250.38070.41470.44190.46950.4966R20.99620.99190.98280.94570.89880.84140.7803表2 台灣中區雨量站Horner公式係數與相關係數(續)流域名雨量站名重現期參數2年5年10年25年50年100年200年大安溪松安a547.25484.58464.47464.81474.66488.11503.74b20.5711.997.373.962.421.310.48c0.52320.44750.41320.38490.37050.35940.3505R20.96930.96620.97570.98490.98820.98880.9868大安溪馬達拉a463.70756.02951.691167.221270.991284.921151.70b34.1954.2063.1868.7067.3559.3941.41c0.50570.50620.50180.49060.47660.45490.4183R20.98710.97210.95500.92420.89630.86870.8523大安溪雪嶺a255.92259.05261.80270.84279.18287.25294.55b10.520.42-3.81-6.78-8.04-8.84-9.34c0.39150.34650.32270.30020.28660.27420.2625R20.98430.98870.99210.99220.98960.98540.9804大安溪雙崎()a953.53666.50563.93492.92463.30444.07431.44b25.1911.814.85-0.74-3.30-5.04-6.25c0.60940.51470.47030.43060.40920.39230.3786R20.99880.99780.99770.99740.99690.99610.9952中港溪南庄()a882.09865.38851.15823.82797.56766.95736.27b14.039.777.544.792.760.75-1.10c0.62720.56980.53930.50540.48230.46040.4398R20.99960.99510.98760.97650.96880.96290.9586北港溪大埔a2441.681960.321553.841114.48873.36700.55580.25b29.9122.5115.937.241.56-2.82-5.82c0.78230.70700.64590.56430.50460.44870.3980R20.99810.99970.99830.99370.99030.98750.9846北港溪林內()a1996.742168.472338.372570.962755.282944.463131.57b23.5824.7626.0427.6928.9430.1731.30c0.75560.72520.71430.70520.70090.69770.6952R20.99970.99900.99850.99760.99680.99600.9951後龍溪大湖()a1020.82756.34609.58491.29434.09393.18362.19b27.1020.0113.787.704.381.86-0.13c0.62760.53490.47970.42420.39130.36400.3405R20.98950.99190.99440.99460.99230.98820.9823表2 台灣中區雨量站Horner公式係數與相關係數(續)流域名雨量站名重現期參數2年5年10年25年50年100年200年後龍溪*橫龍山a455.13424.67419.43417.01417.11418.39419.38b3.290.33-0.69-1.61-2.11-2.49-2.84c0.49230.42630.39750.36930.35250.33820.3254R20.99840.99600.99160.98220.97230.96010.9460烏溪六份寮a1653.792058.512464.583196.703965.824980.216342.78b24.2533.2543.0159.5675.1793.45114.65c0.73310.70650.70080.70410.71290.72540.7414R20.99940.99950.99950.99920.99870.99790.9965烏溪北山()a1072.39976.61886.41800.02755.18722.97698.58b18.4915.4612.368.826.654.853.30c0.67090.59980.55480.50730.47840.45400.4329R20.99420.99420.99470.99540.99570.99590.9959烏溪北港()a882.922072.334039.279096.9415889.0826358.1042288.57b14.5735.2556.2485.02106.05125.59144.19c0.64370.72420.79750.88920.95281.01061.0648R20.99810.99410.99250.99160.98920.98440.9770烏溪草屯()a1768.861987.481985.161931.081893.171859.531833.28b25.3728.6630.2732.0533.5435.1536.95c0.76260.72380.69360.65770.63480.61450.5965R20.99780.99960.99990.99790.99450.98950.9829烏溪萬興()a1075.081579.012034.432766.253435.264224.055121.25b23.4829.8034.8641.8747.3653.0258.57c0.69420.70070.71250.73120.74620.76170.7766R20.99940.99820.99540.98920.98320.97660.9696烏溪翠巒a254.51338.48375.27399.51403.70399.23388.09b6.336.035.935.675.344.924.38c0.47970.47380.45520.42100.38990.35580.3190R20.99920.99940.99920.99780.99430.98600.9675烏溪頭汴a1001.591120.701145.521139.091115.241080.651043.15b20.0016.9614.0810.127.124.231.59c0.69150.65980.63880.61270.59360.57460.5563R20.99950.99950.99950.99780.99540.99270.9903註：一般雨量站以最小化為目標函數；標示*者，則以最小化為目標函數；I為頻率分析之降雨強度，為Horner公式推求之降雨強度。表2 台灣中區雨量站Horner公式係數與相關係數(續)流域名雨量站名重現期參數2年5年10年25年50年100年200年烏溪頭汴坑a1013.59951.891345.763751.4014491.5578269.70531912.88b15.9813.6321.4758.02125.59221.90333.48c0.65230.57780.58200.66790.80900.99101.1996R20.99750.99320.99330.99560.99660.96840.8600新虎尾溪褒忠()a630.321381.472437.124831.107604.6711357.6116227.07b11.7328.4844.4866.6882.4596.72109.45c0.61760.68460.74150.81320.86100.90320.9405R20.99650.99710.99790.99870.99840.99680.9937濁水溪丹大a352.10554.82833.941359.141854.092416.443033.32b9.5416.4625.0836.3343.1248.3052.09c0.52030.52850.56130.60590.63500.65990.6810R20.98290.97450.97060.97030.97240.97500.9773濁水溪卡奈托灣()a474.64371.55309.00261.28240.62227.32217.93b25.6113.785.93-0.57-3.47-5.36-6.67c0.56590.47180.41470.35870.32690.30140.2799R20.96260.95880.96010.96220.96250.96140.9597濁水溪西螺()a1881.241579.801383.121193.431088.751008.61945.34b26.9919.4114.9710.457.765.583.76c0.76820.70040.65780.61120.58180.55630.5340R20.99970.99950.99890.99700.99470.99180.9884濁水溪西巒a496.29585.21717.42984.601314.371834.782662.26b9.3913.4719.4831.4545.3264.5589.58c0.54050.50070.49890.51240.53340.56260.5983R20.99320.98690.97940.96440.94910.93210.9152濁水溪青雲a1293.501193.481124.901059.121024.46998.70984.20b21.8822.8823.9725.8027.5129.4931.93c0.71470.64810.60950.56900.54410.52260.5045R20.99910.99930.99830.99480.99040.98420.9761濁水溪後安寮a877.862324.625394.1518744.1453159.63168373.16607917.19b16.4638.3564.17110.65155.20209.30274.15c0.68890.76950.84920.97371.08091.20171.3383R20.99830.99450.99590.99710.98830.96590.9292表2 台灣中區雨量站Horner公式係數與相關係數(續)流域名雨量站名重現期參數2年5年10年25年50年100年200年濁水溪草嶺()a1104.011070.841050.131062.661109.391201.641362.09b38.1250.8558.6970.7482.9799.91124.24c0.60730.53960.50470.47340.45870.45150.4521R20.99250.97440.96110.94270.92740.91060.8921濁水溪*郡大a199.73264.80335.92471.34623.07847.161207.69b-2.43-2.06-1.051.093.496.8912.06c0.44880