《经济学管理学基础知识及其应用》中英对照.docx

经济学管理学基础知识及其应用中英文对照Table of Contents 目录A Note On Frameworks .关于框架几点注意Strategic Tools & Frameworks .战略工具和框架Economics Frameworks .经济学框架Finance & Accounting Frameworks .金融和会计学框架Sample Cases An Introduction.案例研究（背景介绍）Sample Case & Suggested Solution.案例研究和建议Profitability Cases.盈利能力案例Market Entry & General Strategy Cases.市场进入和整体政略案例More Case Questions To Try.补充案例Market Sizing & Estimation Cases .市场细分和预测案例More Market Sizing & Estimation Cases To Try .补充案例Brainteasers .脑经急转弯Cases With Slides.有幻灯片的案例151 A Note On FrameworksA Note On Frameworks 关于框架的几点注意By the time you face a client, we would like you to feel very confident that you can listen to a description of a situation, and rapidly put together a systematic, logical way of analyzing it. As a consultant, the first important thing is how well you break a problem down and then logically try to solve it. We want you to be able to say to yourself, “Ive done this for several cases; I know I can deal with it.”当面对客户时，我们希望你能自信的感觉到：你能够听懂所描述的状况，并且快速地整理为系统、逻辑的方式来分析。作为咨询，最重要的事实你如何切入和分解问题，然后有逻辑地解决问题。我们希望你有能力对自己说：“我已经在这方面做了几个案例，我知道我能处理。”A framework can guide your intelligent questioning of the clients, lets youlay out your analysis in a coherent manner, and lets you apply your experience to the case by pointing out how the case is an instance of a more general problem to which your experience applies.框架能够指导你明智地提问客户提问，让你以连贯的方式进行分析，并且让你通过指出这个案例本质上是你所经历过的某类型问题的一个例子，然后把你的经验应用到这个案例中。 We cannot overemphasize that this is a skill developed through practice. There is no substitute for confronting a case, building your own systematic way to analyze it, then improving your model through discussions with others. Never be afraid to expose your model to others for fear that it is crude, incomplete, or wrong. All frameworks have holes in them. Thats the whole point of practicingto learn how to improve your initial models so that you will have a richer and more sophisticated set of organizing schemas to draw upon.我们不能过分强调这是一项通过实践获得的技能。面对案例，建立你自己的系统的方式分析它、然后通过与别人讨论改善你的模型，这一过程无法代替。永远不要因为担心你的模型粗糙、不完整或者错误而害怕把她暴露给别人。所有的框架本身都有漏洞。这是实践的关键-学习如何改善你的原始模型以便你能使用有更丰富、更精密成套组织架构。What is a framework? 框架是什么？The world is confusing, and to understand cause-effect relationships, we have to distill most problems to their essence. Thats what theory does, highlight the most important aspects of a situation that account for most of the variance between specific instances of the situation.世界是混乱的，为了理解因果关系，我们不得不提取大多数问题的本质。这就是理论所做的，强调某一情形下最重要的方面，这些方面涵盖了具体事例的大多数变量。You might call these important aspects “drivers” or “critical success factors” or “independent variables. If our model of the world is almost as complex as the world itself, it is not very usefulmodels help us understand and predict only when they strip a problem down to something we can grasp, a small set of key driving forces that we can focus on while ignoring other things that have far less explanatory power. If you give a manager a checklist of 37 things to focus on, s/he simply cannot grasp the essence of the problem. If you can highlight a much smaller number of drivers and articulate the relationships among them, s/he not only can grasp the problem but can apply those insights to other, similar problems.这些重要的方面可以称作“驱动因素”或者“关键成功因素”或者“自由变量”。如果我们对于现实的模型几乎与现实情况一样复杂，这个模型就不太有用了只有当模型把一个问题分解为我们能够掌握的信息，使我们得以集中精力在一些关键驱动因素上并且可以忽略其它说服力很弱的因素时，模型才能够帮助我们进行理解和预测。如果你给经理一个有37项需要关注的检查表，她/他肯定不能抓住问题的本质。如果你能指出较少的驱动因素并清除表明它们之间的关系，她/他不仅可以抓住问题，而且能把这些洞察应用到别的类似的问题。Frameworksor call them models, analytical schemas, analytical lenses, conceptual maps, etc. show the key cause and effect relationships that you think a person should focus on to approach a given situation. They apply to a general class of problems; each case is a specific instance of a problem class. The acid test of whether a framework is useful is that it both explains and predicts. It helps you understand what is going on in this case and draw appropriate analogies to other cases that exemplify the same problem class. It helps you predict what will happen if the client takes a given course of action, and test your prediction by seeing how other cases in the same problem class turn out. These predictions are hypothesesthey are insights into what would follow if the world worked the way your model suggests.框架-或者叫做模型，分析图，分析镜，概念地图等等-展示你认为的一个人处理给定问题时应当关注的关键因果关系。他们应用于某个类型的问题，；每一个案例是此类型问题的具体事例。一个模型是否有用的关键性考验是它既能解释又能预测。它帮助你理解在这个案例发生了什么并且可对同类问题的其它典型案例进行恰当的类推。它帮助你预测当客户按给定程序行动将会发生什么，并且通过观察同类问题的其它案例的结果来检测你的预测（能力）。这些预测是假定的它们是关于如果实际情况按你给定的模型运转会发生什么事情的洞察。You should not try to follow a recipe when constructing frameworks. There are many, many ways to organize an approach to a problem, identify the key drivers, and articulate the relationships among them. However, some of these organizing structures are weak. I will give you a few suggestions here purely to stimulate your thinking, not because they represent the “best” frameworks.在构建框架时，你不应当只是遵循步骤。有很多很多切入问题的组织方式，识别关键因素，并且推测们之间的关系。但是，这些组织结构中有一部分是脆弱的。这里，为了刺激你思考，我将给出一些建议，我给出这些建议并非因为它们是最好的框架。Checklists. The weakest framework is the checklist. Simply telling managers, “Here are some things to think about,” does not help much. A checklist does extract some elements from the problem for managers to focus on, but it does not provide much insight into the nature of the problem, nor does it show the relationship among the elements.检查表。最弱的框架就是清单。只是告诉经理们，“这里有一些事情要考虑”，并没有多大帮助。检查表确实从问题中提取了一些元素来让经理关注，但是这并未提供对问题本质的观察，更别说展示元素之间的关系。SWOT Analyses. One step up from a checklist, and still a weak framework in my humble view, is a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis. This is basically a checklist supplemented by “pros and cons. Again, it does not provide a lot of insight into the cause-effect relationships in the problem, and it does not show a relationship among those elements.SWOT分析。比检查表进一步，但以我谦见仍是一个弱的框架，就是SWOT（强势，弱势，机会和威胁）分析。这只是补充了“支持和反对”的检查表。同样，它并未提供问题因果关系的观察，而且也没有展示这些元素之间的关系。The Familiar Frameworks. Let me pause for a moment here and suggest that I do not think much of the “7S” framework McKinsey used (that is in the heart of In Search of Excellence) when it is used simply as a checklist. Similarly, it is a misuse of Porters five forces model simply to use the forces as topic headings. Porter lays out many causal connections between each force and industry structure; it is the causal connections, not the list of five forces in and of itself, which is of intellectual value.常见的框架。这里，让我打断几分钟并说明当麦肯锡“7S”框架（这是“寻找最优”的核心）只是用作清单时，我并不认为它多么好。同样的，它只是简单地把波特的五力模型的驱动力滥用到标题。波特展示了各个驱动力和产业结构的众多因果联系；它是因果联系，并不只是五力自身或其清单，这些是智力贡献。Articulating the three generic strategies (cost leadership, differentiation - broad market, and differentiation - narrow market) is not very interesting; what is interesting is the notion that being “stuck in the middle” does not work. Breaking a problem down into business processes of value chains represents progress only if you can articulate something about the interrelationships among those processes or links.描述三大战略（成本领先、差异化战略、集中）并不是很有趣；有趣的是这一概念“卡在中间”没有用。只有当你可以清楚描述这些过程或环节的内在关系时，把一个问题分解为价值链的商业过程才代表进步。Matrices. A popular framework that is often misused is a matrix, from the hoary 2x2 to the sophisticated multi-dimensional matrices. Drawing a matrix does not in itself constitute building a framework. What matters is whether you can articulate how the cells are different in some systematic way.矩阵。一个常被滥用的流行的框架便是矩阵，从久远的2x2矩阵到成熟的多维矩阵。画一个矩阵本身并不是建立一个框架。重要的是你是否能以某种系统的方式描述元素的不同之处。“Fit” Frameworks. Somewhat more sophisticated is a “fit” framework. For example, you were exposed to the Tushman-Nadler diagnostic model in Organizational Behavior. The idea is that the organization works only when it achieves congruence between its internal structure and the environment, and congruence among its internal elements. For example, and “organic” structure may represent a better fit in a turbulent environment that a “mechanistic” structure, which works better in more predictable environments.“匹配性”框架。一定程度上更成熟的是“匹配性”框架。例如，在组织行为中你会面对塔什曼-纳德尔诊断模型。其思想是仅当在内部结构和环境之间，以及内部元素之间达到一致性时组织才有效运行。例如，“有机的”结构也许代表更适合紊乱的环境，而“机械”结构的环境往往适合可预测性强的环境。Similarly, a low-cost producer cannot afford heavy R&D investments, while a firm pursuing first-mover strategy cannot compete on the basis of efficiency. To use this kind of framework, you need to spell-out the elements and what kinds of congruent configurations they can form.同样的，当一个追求先行战略的公司无法基于效率进行竞争时，低成本的生产者无法支付大量研发投资。为了使用这种框架，你需要列出这些元素以及他们可以形成的一致性配置。Decision Trees. An excellent framework is a decision tree. You have had considerable practice constructing these during your first year, and decision trees have a good deal of rigor and value, especially in forcing you to identify contingencies. Those you interviewing with McKinsey will find that decision trees are looked on with great favor there.决策树。决策树是一个优秀的框架。在第一年，你已经有相当多的经验来构造这些，并且决策树很严谨很有价值，尤其在强迫你识别偶然事件时。面试过麦肯锡的人会发现决策树在那里是很受青睐的。Causal models. An often less formal framework than a decision tree is a causal model, that essentially shows the cause and effect relationships between a set of drivers. These models tend to oversimplify contingencies, but nonetheless can add considerable clarity to your thinking. The most formal kind of cause model you could propose is a multivariate equation, which with absolute precision and clarity specifies what you think the drivers are, how they affect the outcome, and what the functional form of their impact would look like.原因模型。原因模型通常没有决策树模型正式，它在本质上展示了一系列驱动因素间的因果关系。这些模型倾向于过度简化偶然事件，尽管如此它还是给你的思考增加了相当大的清晰度。你能提出的最正式的因果模型是多变量方程，它在定义方面有着绝对精确性和清晰度，定义你认为驱动力是什么，他们如何影响结果，以及他们影响的作用原理是怎样的。Some causal models specify the dynamics of a situation, often by uncovering interlocking cycles of a behavior over time. Again, the point is not that such models are perfect over time, but cyclical behavior is very common in the world, and powerful insights can be gained from identifying interlocking cycles that dampen and/or reinforce one another.一些原因模型通常通过揭露一定时间跨度内行为的联锁循环，描述了形势的动态性。同样，关键并不是这个模型一直是完美的，而是实际生活中循环性行为是很常见的， 而且从识别出此消彼长的联锁循环中可获得有力的洞察。With imagination and insight, you will create other types of frameworks. What all good frameworks have in common is that they identify the drivers of a situation and specify both the interrelationships among those drivers and how they affect important outcomes.通过想象和观察，你将会创造出其他类型的框架。所有好的框架的共性是它们识别出某一情形的驱动力并且详细说明这些驱动力的内在关系以及它们是如何影响重要结果的。2 Strategic Tools & FrameworkStrategic Tools & Frameworks 战略工具和框架General marketing, strategy and operations concepts for use in consulting 用于咨询的市场、战略、操作的一般概念General Tools For Consulting 咨询的一般工具The list presented in the following sections, though not exhaustive, covers most of the standard tools you will use in consulting. Use these tools to think about the key issues and to lead you from the facts to a conclusion.以下展示的列表，虽不是详尽的，却覆盖了大多数你在咨询中会用到的标准工具。使用这些工具来思考关键事件并指导你从事实走向结论。As you look at these tools, though, remember that no framework or tool is as good as an original framework or tool. Play with these ideas and frameworks until you develop a set of your own frameworks that you feel comfortable using.但是，当你看这些工具时，切记没有任何框架或工具比原始框架或工具要好。琢磨这些思想和框架，直到你形成了一套你用起来舒服的自己的框架。Finally, pay attention to how logically you structure your proposal or answer. This is a bit more straightforward to learn than the frameworks, but is no less important. An example of a structure for your interaction is:1. State or restate the problem.2. Identify the key issues for further investigation.3. Apply the relevant frameworks.4. Summarize and provide a recommendation. It may also be useful to discuss implications of your recommendation such as competitive reactions and acceptance within the client organization.最后，关注你如何逻辑性地构造你的建议或答案。这比框架要学的更直接，但并不是更不重要。让你互动的一个结构的例子： 1.陈述或反复陈述问题 2.识别进一步研究的关键事件 3.使用相关的框架 4.总结并提供建议。讨论你的建议的含义例如在客户组织中竞争性反应和接受度，也许也是有用的。The Five Forces 五力Michael Porters “Five Forces” Model for industry structure and attractiveness analysis is a classic analysis for cases that involve a decision as to whether to invest in or enter a given industry. The five forces are:Threat Of New EntrantsThreat Of SubstitutesSupplier Power Buyer Power Industry Rivalry迈克尔波特的行业结构和吸引力分析的“五力”模型是决策是否投资或进入某一行业经典分析工具。这五种力是：新进入者的威胁替代品威胁供应商的议价能力购买者的议价能力同行业竞争者的竞争程度。Threat Of New Entrants. This force measures the ease with which new competitors may enter the market and disrupt the position of other firms. The threat that outsiders will enter a market is stronger when the barriers to entry are low or when incumbents will not fight to prevent a newcomer from gaining a market foothold. In addition, when a newcomer can expect to earn an attractive profit, the barriers to entry are diminished.新进入者的威胁。这一驱动力测量新竞争者进入市场打破其他公司地位的容易度。当进入壁垒低或者在位者并未阻止新进入者获得市场份额时，外部进入者带来的威胁越大。另外，当新进入者能预测到巨大盈利时，进入壁垒降低。Threat of Substitutes. The threat posed by substitute products is strong when the features of substitutes are attractive, switching costs are low, and buyers believe substitutes have equal or better features.替代品的威胁。当替代品的特征越有吸引力，转换成本越低，并且买方相信替代品是同质或者更好的，替代产品产生的威胁也越强。Supplier Power. Suppliers to an industry are a strong competitive force whenever they have sufficient bargaining power to command a price premium for their materials or components. Suppliers also have more power when they can affect competition among industry rivals by the reliability of their deliveries or by the quality and performance of the items they supply.供应商的议价能力。无论何时当供应商的对其材料或成品有充分的定价能力时，他在一个行业中就是一个很强的竞争力。当供应商能以其产品的可靠性、质量或性能影响行业内同业者的竞争是时，他们的竞争力也更大。Buyer Power. Buyers become a stronger competitive force the more they are able to exercise bargaining leverage over price, quality, service, or other terms or conditions of sale. Buyers gain strength through their sheer size and when the purchase is critical to the sellers success.买方的讨价还价能力。当买方越能够在价格水平，质量，服务，或销售的其它条件上运用谈判杠杆时，它就越成为一个强大的竞争力。买方通过他们巨大的购买量或当此采购对卖方的成功非常关键时，买方获得优势。Industry Rivalry. Often, the most powerful of the five forces is the competitive battle among rivals that are already in the industry. The intensity with which competitors jockey for position and competitive advantages indicates the strength of the influence of this force.同行业竞争者的竞争程度。通常，五力中最有力的是产业内已存在的竞争者的激烈斗争。竞争者为市场地位和竞争优势争夺的激烈程度表现了此力的影响强度。Although this model can provide a lot of insight into an industry, beware of becoming too dependent on Porter in your case interviews. Also, make sure you understand the underlying drivers of the forces, and why and how they create varied competitive environments. In addition, you may wish to add to this framework any external impacts from government/political factors and technology changes.尽管这一模型可以提供许多行业视角，但是要小心在做案例时太过依靠波特的理论。同时，确保你明白这些力的潜在驱动因素，以及它们创造多变且激烈竞争环境的原因和方式。另外，你也许会希望给这一框架增加某些来自政府/政治因素和技术变迁的外部影响。The Three Cs (Or Is It 7?) 3CS（或者7CS）This simple framework can be helpful for marketing cases as a simple way to begin looking into a companys position in the market. The first three Cs rarely get to all of the issues, but they do provide a broad framework to get the analysis started. The last four Cs may be useful additions to further your analysis. As you practice cases, begin to develop a series of potential questions related to each “C” that will help you to “drill down” further towards the root causes of the problem at hand. Some examples are given for the first 3 Cs below.这一简单框架作为观测公司在市场中地位的简单方式，有助于市场营销案例研究。最初的3CS很难覆盖所有的方面，但是仍提供了开始分析的宽泛的框架。最终的4CS也许会对你进一步的研究有帮助。当你开始做案例时，开始准备一些与每个“C”相关的问题，这会帮助你向更深方向追溯手边问题的根源。下面给出了最初3CS的一些例子。CustomerWhat is the unmet need?Which segment are we/should we target?Are they price sensitive?顾客有哪些未满足的需求？哪些部分是我们应当关注的？他们是价格敏感的吗？CompetitionWhat are strengths/weaknesses?How many are there and how concentrated are they?Are there existing or potential substitutes?竞争（我们）强势/弱势是什么？有多少已及集中程度如何？是否有现有的或潜在的替代品？CompanyWhat are its strengths/weaknesses?Where in the value chain do we add value?公司（公司）的强势/弱势是什么？我们的附加价值位于价值链何处？Cost Capacity Culture Competence 成本 生产能力 文化 竞争力The 4 Ps 4PSThis framework is suitable for marketing implementation cases. It is not usually appropriate for beginning the analysis, but it can be very helpful when you discuss implementation to make sure that you cover all of the issues.ProductPromotionPricePlace (distribution channel)这一框架适合市场的案例。它通常并不适合开始分析，但是当你讨论完善时，有助于确保你覆盖案例所有方面。产品促销价格渠道（分销，渠道）Value Chain Analysis 价值链分析This analysis can provide a good outline for analyzing a companys internal operations and the value of each step in making a product or service go from raw materials to a finished good or service. Value chains vary dramatically for every industry, but here are two examples that can be customized:这一分析能够提供一个好的