双语阅读-石油市场担心.doc

石油市场担心“持久战”Threat of drawn out war in Libya stokes oil fears The energy market has met an old foe: a war in an oil-rich Middle Eastern country. 能源市场遭遇了一个夙敌：中东富油国家的战争。 As Western countries warplanes bombed Libya again on Monday in the biggest military attack against an Arab country since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the oil market slowly came to terms with an ominous threat: a long, drawn-out war. 随着西方国家的战机周一再次轰炸利比亚这是2003年入侵伊拉克以来，西方对阿拉伯国家规模最大的军事打击石油市场慢慢接受了一个不祥之兆：一场旷日持久的战争。 Libya is the worlds 12th largest oil exporter and a member of the Opec oil cartel. Production has already dropped to a trickle, down from a pre-crisis level of 1.58m barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency, the watchdog. 利比亚是全球第12大石油出口国，也是石油输出国组织（欧佩克，Opec）的成员国之一。根据监督组织国际能源机构(IEA)的数据，危机前，该国石油日产量达158万桶，而现如今，石油生产已几近中断。 But now the markets fear that output could take months to recover and, worse still, that the war could damage, either by accident or deliberately, the oil facilities. 现在，市场担心产出可能需要数月才能恢复，更糟糕的是，战争可能会破坏石油设施无论是意外还是有意为之。 “A long, drawn-out conflict at this point seems likely,” said Mohammed El-Katiri, analyst at consultants Eurasia Group, saying that in none of the main scenarios of the unfolding conflict “will Libyan oil exports make a rapid recovery”. 咨询机构欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)分析师穆罕默德(Mohammed El-Katiri)表示：“目前这场战争看上去可能会是一场持久战。”他表示，这场愈演愈烈的冲突无论发展为哪一种结局，“利比亚石油出口都不会很快复苏”。 In addition to the no-fly zone and threat of air strikes, UN resolution 1973, which the Security Council passed on Thursday, also stipulated sanctions including freezing the assets of National Oil Corporation. In practice, the asset freeze imposes a de facto oil embargo on Libya, both affecting the government in Tripoli and the rebels. 除了划定禁飞区和空袭威胁，联合国安理会(Security Council)上周四通过的第1973号决议还规定实施制裁，包括冻结利比亚国家石油公司(National Oil Company)的资产。资产冻结对利比亚构成了事实上的禁运，现政府和反对派都会受到影响。 Jinzhong Zhang, oil analyst at Standard Bank in London, adds: “The market is not going to see the return of Libyan oil any time soon.” 标准银行(Standard Bank)驻伦敦的石油分析师Jinzhong Zhang补充道：“市场在短期内不会看到利比亚石油生产的恢复。” So far, Saudi Arabia and other influential members of the Opec oil cartel have boosted their own production to offset the shortfall created by Libya. Even so, the oil market remains extremely nervous. Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged on Monday to a session high of $116.22 a barrel, nearing the 2?-year high of $119.79 set in late February, as warplanes bombed Libya. 迄今为止，沙特阿拉伯及其它重要的欧佩克成员国已增加本国产量，以弥补利比亚造成的短缺。尽管如此，石油市场仍极度紧张。周一，在战机轰炸利比亚的同时，全球基准布伦特原油价格盘中升至每桶116.22美元，接近2月下旬创下的每桶119.79美元的两年半高点。 Oil prices could rise further as traders build a bigger risk premium on the market and consider worst-case scenarios that could see Riyadh and others forced to keep bridging the gap of Libyas lost output longer than previously thought. 随着交易员抬高市场的风险溢价，且考虑到最糟糕的情况沙特及其它国家被迫填补利比亚产出缺口的时间，可能超出之前的预期油价可能会进一步上涨。 One such scenario, insinuated by senior US officials, is a partition of the country between a west controlled by Muammer Gaddafi and the east of the rebels. Depending on where the border falls, it could leave the oilfields of the rich Sirte basin split between the factions, a worrying scenario, traders say. 美国一些高级官员暗示，最糟糕的一种结果是利比亚分裂为由穆阿迈尔?卡扎菲( Muammer Gaddafi)控制的西部，以及由反对派力量控制的东部。根据划分边界的位置，位于富裕的锡尔特(Sirte)盆地的油田可能会被不同派系割据。交易员表示，这种可能性令人不安。 Another scenario, viewed by analysts and traders as very low probability, is that Col Gaddafi attacks the oil industry, practising the sort of scorched earth policy that Saddam Hussein implemented during Iraqs withdrawal from Kuwait in early 1991. 还有一种结果：卡扎菲攻击石油产业，实施“焦土政策”萨达姆?侯赛因(Saddam Hussein) 在1991年初下令伊军从科威特撤离时，就曾施行过这一政策。但分析师和交易员认为这种可能性很小。 “The memory of the oil-well fires in Kuwait is in the market. Gaddafi has warned he would not let western powers get their hands on Libyas oil,” says Mr Zhang. Zhang表示：“市场还记得科威特油井着火的情景。卡扎菲已发出警告，不会让西方大国染指利比亚石油。” The control of the countrys oil industry is critical in the battle between Col Gaddafis forces and the rebels based in Benghazi. Libyas opposition made quick gains in the first phase of its uprising three weeks ago, securing control of the countrys largest oilfield, Sarir, in the east, and several oil export terminals, including Es Sider, the largest oil port. 在卡扎菲军队与驻扎在班加西的反对派军队之间的战斗中，最为重要的争夺目标就是对该国石油行业的控制权。3周前，反对派军队在起义的第一阶段便迅速取得成果，夺取了该国东部最大的萨里尔(Sarir)油田以及最大油港锡德尔港(Es Sider)等数个出口油港的控制权。 The gains gave the rebels enough confidence to talk about starting their own oil export program through the Gulf Oil Company (Agoco) based in Bengazhi. 这些进展赋予了反对派军队足够的自信，考虑通过总部位于班加西的海湾石油公司(Agoco)，启动自己的石油出口项目。 The area under control of Agoco, which broke links with its parent, the state-owned National Oil Company, based in Tripoli, normally pumps about 420,000 barrels a day. Production has dropped to about 100,000 b/d after several fields, including Nafoora, were shut down, officials in Benghazi said. 处于海湾石油公司控制下的地区，通常日产量约42万桶海湾石油公司是总部位于的黎波里的国有利比亚国家石油公司的子公司，目前双方已断绝关系。班加西官员表示，在Nafoora等数个油田被关闭后，海湾石油公司的日产量已降至10万桶左右。 The oil region in the east, which the opposition claims is under its control, includes several fields operated by foreign companies, such as Amal-as Sarah, run by Germany-based Wintershall, and Shateira, run by OMV of Austria. 反对派军队声称已控制了东部产油区，包括数个由外国企业运营的油田，譬如由德国温特沙尔公司(Wintershall)运营的Amal-as Sarah油田，以及奥地利石油天然气集团(OMV)运营的Shateira油田。 Each has stopped production. But oil industry officials believe that most of the oilfields in the area are now in no-mans-land. The precise allegiances of the several tribes that have de facto control of this region is unclear, analysts say. 这些油田都已停产。但石油行业高管认为，该地区大多数油田现在都处于无人区。分析师表示，实际控制该地区的几个部落的忠诚度究竟如何，目前仍不得而知。 Industry officials believe the opposition only controls two oil export terminals: Tubruq, near the border with Egypt, and Zuetina, as forces loyal