进口贸易论文：进口的技术溢出效应对我国全要素生产率的影响研究.doc

进口贸易论文：进口的技术溢出效应对我国全要素生产率的影响研究【中文摘要】技术进步是维持一国经济持续发展的关键力量。对于发展中国家而言,可以通过进口贸易等方式直接引进发达国家的先进技术,从而实现以较小成本和较快速度提升本国的技术水平,缩短同发达国家的技术差距。作为发展中国家,我国的进口贸易在改革开放后,特别是社会主义市场经济制度确立以来经历了持续增长,其中技术类产品和工业制成品的进口也在不断扩大。同时,我国的资源利用效率和技术水平也实现了持续的进步。本文拟运用我国市场经济确立以来的相关数据,分析进口贸易是否存在明显的技术溢出,以及其溢出效应对我国技术进步的贡献程度如何。为有效分析上述问题,本文首先对进口贸易技术溢出与国内技术进步关系的相关理论进行综述。在此基础上,运用比较的方法,对我国进口贸易和贸易品的技术特征进行一般分析。实证部分是本文分析上述问题的核心依据。首先,以CH模型为基础,结合其拓展研究得到本文的静态分析模型。根据模型分析需要,收集1993年以来的相关数据,计算模型相关变量的值,得到该类模型的分析数据,并通过完整的分析方法得出该模型的结论。随后,运用脉冲响应和方差分解的方法,分析进口贸易变动对我国全要素生产率变化的动态影响过程。本文分析的具体结论为:(1)我国的进口贸易存在明显的技术溢出效应,该效应是我国技术进步的重要贡献力量,且我国进口每增加1%,可以推动我国技术进步增长0.24%。(2)在动态分析中,当期进口贸易的增加会对我国的技术进步产生持续的积极影响,即我国对进口技术存在较强的学习效应,能较快的将国外的先进技术吸收和转化。(3)在国外研发溢出的两种主要渠道中,进口贸易对我国技术进步的长期贡献效应更明显,而FDI的正向溢出效应的集中在短期,长期动态效应的综合影响则是消极的。因此,进口贸易的扩大在长期更有利于我国TFP的持续进步。【英文摘要】Technological progress is the key power for a country to maintain sustained economic development. For developing countries, they could through import trade, introducing the advanced technology from developed countries, in which they can enhance their skills with lower costs and faster speed ,and reduce the technology gap with developed countries. As a developing country, After the reform and opening up, especially after the establishment of socialist market economic system, chinas import trade has experienced sustained growth. Meanwhile, technical products and manufactured goods imports are also expanding. At the same time, the efficiency of resource use and the level of technology achieved a sustained progress. Using the relevant data of Chinas market economy ,This paper want to analysis the existence of significant technology spillover from imports and its spillover effects on the contribution of technological progress.For the effective analysis of these problems, first of all the theory of the relationship between imports of domestic technology spillover and technological progress are reviewed. On this basis, using the comparative method, general analysis Chinas import trade and the technical features of trade goods. The empirical part of this paper is the core basis on these problem. First, based on CH model, combined with its expanding research get the static analysis model of this article. According to the model analysis needs, collecting data since 1993, and calculation the value of relevant variables of this model, and get the analysis data by type of model, and obtained conclusions through a complete analysis of the model. Subsequently,using impulse response and variance decomposition method to analyze the changes in imports,which influence the process of dynamic change of total factor productivity in China. With the above analysis, we obtain the following specific conclusions:(1)There is obvious technology spillover effects on Chinas imports, which is an important factor contributions to technological progress, and when our imports increased by 1%, can promote growth of 0.24% of Chinas technology progress.(2) In the dynamic analysis, the current increase in imports will have lasting positive impact on technological progress in China ,that there is a strong evidence on imported technology learning effect in our country, and advanced technology can be faster absorption and transformation. (3)There are the two main channels of Foreign R & D spillovers to our country, the import trade of the long-term contribution of technical progress effect is more obvious, and the positive spillover effects of FDI more concentrated in the short term, long-term dynamic effects are negative overall. Therefore, the expansion of imports is more conducive to long-term sustained improvement of TFP.【关键词】进口贸易 技术溢出 全要素生产率 扩展的CH模型【英文关键词】Import Trade Spillovers Total Factor Productivity Expansion CH Model【目录】进口的技术溢出效应对我国全要素生产率的影响研究摘要4-5Abstract5-6第1章 导论9-191.1 引言9-101.2 文献综述10-161.2.1 全要素生产率的理论研究与测算10-121.2.2 对中国全要素生产率的测算12-131.2.3 进口贸易是一国弥补技术差异的重要方法13-141.2.4 影响进口贸易技术溢出效应的因素分析14-151.2.5 进口贸易对一国技术进步的贡献分析15-161.3 研究思路与方法16-171.3.1 比较分析法161.3.2 理论与实证分析相结合16-171.3.3 静态分析与动态分析结合171.3.4 数据补足法171.4 分析框架17-181.5 本文创新与不足18-191.5.1 本文创新之处181.5.2 本文不足之处18-19第2章 进口贸易对TFP 影响及其技术溢出机制的理论基础19-262.1 贸易产生技术溢出的理论与模型19-232.1.1 技术差距论19-202.1.2 南北贸易模型20-212.1.3 贸易的动态效应：干中学21-232.2 进口贸易引致技术溢出的机制23-262.2.1 技术类产品和中间产品的进口扩大与质量提高促进了TFP 进步232.2.2 对进口品的逆向工程和模仿可以获得生产技术的增加23-242.2.3 干中学可以产生动态的技术进步24-26第3章 我国进口贸易的一般分析26-343.1 进口贸易的发展概述26-273.1.1 进口商品结构的发展变化263.1.2 技术进口贸易发展26-273.2 初级产品和工业制成品进口贸易的比较分析27-293.3 一般贸易和加工贸易的进口比较分析29-303.4 进口贸易的地区差异分析30-313.5 进口商品结构比较31-323.6 进口贸易的趋势预测32-34第4章 进口贸易溢出效应对我国TFP 影响的实证分析34-484.1 样本选择的说明344.1.1 19932009 年份选择344.1.2 进口贸易和FDI 输出国选择344.2 模型来源与说明34-364.2.1 CH 模型34-354.2.2 扩展的CH 模型35-364.3 相关变量的测度36-414.3.1 TFP 的计算36-384.3.2 资本存量的计算384.3.3 人均受教育年限的计算38-394.3.4 国内外研发资本存量的计算39-404.3.5 进口与FDI 溢出效应的计算404.3.6 开放度的计算40-414.4 缺失数据的计算与说明414.4.1 指数平滑法414