曼昆《经济学原理》25productiongrowth.ppt

9THEREALECONOMYINTHELONGRUN 25 ProductionandGrowth ProductionandGrowth Acountry sstandardoflivingdependsonitsabilitytoproducegoodsandservices ProductionandGrowth Withinacountrytherearelargechangesinthestandardoflivingovertime ProductionandGrowth IntheUnitedStatesoverthepastcentury averageincomeasmeasuredbyrealGDPperpersonhasgrownbyabout2percentperyear ProductionandGrowth Productivityreferstotheamountofgoodsandservicesproducedforeachhourofaworker stime Anation sstandardoflivingisdeterminedbytheproductivityofitsworkers Table1TheVarietyofGrowthExperiences Copyright 2004South Western ECONOMICGROWTHAROUNDTHEWORLD Livingstandards asmeasuredbyrealGDPperperson varysignificantlyamongnations ECONOMICGROWTHAROUNDTHEWORLD ThepoorestcountrieshaveaveragelevelsofincomethathavenotbeenseenintheUnitedStatesformanydecades ECONOMICGROWTHAROUNDTHEWORLD Annualgrowthratesthatseemsmallbecomelargewhencompoundedformanyyears Compoundingreferstotheaccumulationofagrowthrateoveraperiodoftime PRODUCTIVITY ITSROLEANDDETERMINANTS Productivityplaysakeyroleindetermininglivingstandardsforallnationsintheworld WhyProductivityIsSoImportant Productivityreferstotheamountofgoodsandservicesthataworkercanproducefromeachhourofwork WhyProductivityIsSoImportant Tounderstandthelargedifferencesinlivingstandardsacrosscountries wemustfocusontheproductionofgoodsandservices HowProductivityIsDetermined Theinputsusedtoproducegoodsandservicesarecalledthefactorsofproduction Thefactorsofproductiondirectlydetermineproductivity HowProductivityIsDetermined TheFactorsofProductionPhysicalcapitalHumancapitalNaturalresourcesTechnologicalknowledge HowProductivityIsDetermined PhysicalCapitalisaproducedfactorofproduction Itisaninputintotheproductionprocessthatinthepastwasanoutputfromtheproductionprocess isthestockofequipmentandstructuresthatareusedtoproducegoodsandservices Toolsusedtobuildorrepairautomobiles Toolsusedtobuildfurniture Officebuildings schools etc HowProductivityIsDetermined HumanCapitaltheeconomist stermfortheknowledgeandskillsthatworkersacquirethrougheducation training andexperienceLikephysicalcapital humancapitalraisesanation sabilitytoproducegoodsandservices HowProductivityIsDetermined NaturalResourcesinputsusedinproductionthatareprovidedbynature suchasland rivers andmineraldeposits Renewableresourcesincludetreesandforests Nonrenewableresourcesincludepetroleumandcoal canbeimportantbutarenotnecessaryforaneconomytobehighlyproductiveinproducinggoodsandservices HowProductivityIsDetermined TechnologicalKnowledgesociety sunderstandingofthebestwaystoproducegoodsandservices Humancapitalreferstotheresourcesexpendedtransmittingthisunderstandingtothelaborforce FYI TheProductionFunction Economistsoftenuseaproductionfunctiontodescribetherelationshipbetweenthequantityofinputsusedinproductionandthequantityofoutputfromproduction FYI TheProductionFunction Y AF L K H N Y quantityofoutputA availableproductiontechnologyL quantityoflaborK quantityofphysicalcapitalH quantityofhumancapitalN quantityofnaturalresourcesF isafunctionthatshowshowtheinputsarecombined FYI TheProductionFunction Aproductionfunctionhasconstantreturnstoscaleif foranypositivenumberx xY AF xL xK xH xN Thatis adoublingofallinputscausestheamountofoutputtodoubleaswell FYI TheProductionFunction Productionfunctionswithconstantreturnstoscalehaveaninterestingimplication Settingx 1 L Y L AF 1 K L H L N L Where Y L outputperworkerK L physicalcapitalperworkerH L humancapitalperworkerN L naturalresourcesperworker FYI TheProductionFunction Theprecedingequationsaysthatproductivity Y L dependsonphysicalcapitalperworker K L humancapitalperworker H L andnaturalresourcesperworker N L aswellasthestateoftechnology A ECONOMICGROWTHANDPUBLICPOLICY Governmentscandomanythingstoraiseproductivityandlivingstandards ECONOMICGROWTHANDPUBLICPOLICY GovernmentPoliciesThatRaiseProductivityandLivingStandardsEncouragesavingandinvestment EncourageinvestmentfromabroadEncourageeducationandtraining Establishsecurepropertyrightsandmaintainpoliticalstability Promotefreetrade Promoteresearchanddevelopment TheImportanceofSavingandInvestment Onewaytoraisefutureproductivityistoinvestmorecurrentresourcesintheproductionofcapital Figure1GrowthandInvestment Copyright 2003Southwestern ThomsonLearning a G r o w t h R a t e 1 9 6 0 1991 b I n v e s t m e n t 1 9 6 0 1991 SouthKorea Singapore Japan Israel Canada Brazil WestGermany Mexico UnitedKingdom Nigeria UnitedStates India Bangladesh Chile Rwanda SouthKorea Singapore Japan Israel Canada Brazil WestGermany Mexico UnitedKingdom Nigeria UnitedStates India Bangladesh Chile Rwanda Investment percentofGDP GrowthRate percent 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 10 20 30 40 DiminishingReturnsandtheCatch UpEffect Asthestockofcapitalrises theextraoutputproducedfromanadditionalunitofcapitalfalls thispropertyiscalleddiminishingreturns Becauseofdiminishingreturns anincreaseinthesavingrateleadstohighergrowthonlyforawhile DiminishingReturnsandtheCatch UpEffect Inthelongrun thehighersavingrateleadstoahigherlevelofproductivityandincome butnottohighergrowthintheseareas DiminishingReturnsandtheCatch UpEffect Thecatch upeffectreferstothepropertywherebycountriesthatstartoffpoortendtogrowmorerapidlythancountriesthatstartoffrich InvestmentfromAbroad Governmentscanincreasecapitalaccumulationandlong termeconomicgrowthbyencouraginginvestmentfromforeignsources InvestmentfromAbroad Investmentfromabroadtakesseveralforms ForeignDirectInvestmentCapitalinvestmentownedandoperatedbyaforeignentity ForeignPortfolioInvestmentInvestmentsfinancedwithforeignmoneybutoperatedbydomesticresidents Education Foracountry slong rungrowth educationisatleastasimportantasinvestmentinphysicalcapital IntheUnitedStates eachyearofschoolingraisesaperson swage onaverage byabout10percent Thus onewaythegovernmentcanenhancethestandardoflivingistoprovideschoolsandencouragethepopulationtotakeadvantageofthem Education Aneducatedpersonmightgeneratenewideasabouthowbesttoproducegoodsandservices whichinturn mightentersociety spoolofknowledgeandprovideanexternalbenefittoothers Education Oneproblemfacingsomepoorcountriesisthebraindrain theemigrationofmanyofthemosthighlyeducatedworkerstorichcountries PropertyRightsandPoliticalStability Propertyrightsrefertotheabilityofpeopletoexerciseauthorityovertheresourcestheyown Aneconomy widerespectforpropertyrightsisanimportantprerequisiteforthepricesystemtowork Itisnecessaryforinvestorstofeelthattheirinvestmentsaresecure FreeTrade Tradeis insomeways atypeoftechnology Acountrythateliminatestraderestrictionswillexperiencethesamekindofeconomicgrowththatwouldoccurafteramajortechnologicaladvance FreeTrade Somecountriesengagein inward orientatedtradepolicies avoidinginteractionwithothercountries outward orientatedtradepolicies encouraginginteractionwithothercountries ResearchandDevelopment Theadvanceoftechnologicalknowledgehasledtohigherstandardsofliving Mosttechnologicaladvancecomesfromprivateresearchbyfirmsandindividualinventors Governmentcanencouragethedevelopmentofnewtechnologiesthroughresearchgrants taxbreaks andthepatentsystem CASESTUDY TheProductivitySlowdownandSpeedup From1959to1973productivitygrewatarateof3 2percentperyear From1973to1995productivitygrewbyonly1 5percentperyear Productivityacceleratedagainin1995 growingby2 6percentperyearonaverageduringthenextsixyears CASESTUDY TheProductivitySlowdownandSpeedup Thecausesofthechangesinproductivitygrowthareelusive Theslowdowncannotbetracedtothefactorsofproductionthataremosteasilymeasured Manyeconomistsattributetheslowdownandspeedupineconomicgrowthtochangesintechnologyandthecreationofnewideas Figure2TheGrowthinRealGDPPerPerson Copyright 2003Southwestern ThomsonLearning GrowthRate percent peryear 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0 1 8 7 0 1890 1 8 9 0 1910 1 9 1 0 1930 1 9 3 0 1950 1 9 5 0 1970 1 9 7 0 1990 1 9 9 0 2000 0 PopulationGrowth Economistsandothersocialscientistshavelongdebatedhowpopulationgrowthaffectsasociety P