天气预报检查参数项目.doc

天氣診斷檢查表參數項目RCSS22/9 RCMQ22/9 RCKU22/9 RCNN22/9 RCAY22/9 T (C) 23 26 26Td 20 22 19T 500 hPa-20.6 -17.8-19.5Surface Wind 050/10 360/10 070/12CAPE 1085 - 208Lifted Index-3.7 4.2-0.5Total Totals 47 41 47K IndexLFC LevelEquilibrium Level (km) 9.9 - 7.7Precipitable Water(mm) 9月平均雨量 (mm)21.9 15.012.914.019.0 15.016.013.015.916.0導引氣流(Surface 500 hPa) (kts)850 hPa以上無260/29 303/3Bulk Richardson Number850 hPa以上無0 11結冰高度 (km)2.6 2.7 2.6濕球結冰高度 (km) 2.11.7 2.1 1.91.8檢查表1 物理過程與雷雨類型有利發生條件RCSS22/9 RCMQ22/9 RCKU22/9 RCNN22/9 RCAY22/9 上升因素為主導因子？(一般雷雨胞)短命風暴與劇烈天氣預報上升強度 中度強烈？ 預期無對流作用環境有弱風切? 850 hPa以上無預期無對流作用有低層冷池與風切交互作用之傾向?(多胞雷雨)在冷池與風切下游空氣均勻處，易產生新生雷雨胞. Forecast buoyancy moderate to strong?no convection anticipatedSurface-700 hPa shear(shear over the lowest 2-3 km AGL) 20-40 kts?No wind flight above 850 hPano convection anticipatedHodograph length of 20 kts over the lowest 2 to 3 km AGL?(Is considered to be sufficiently strong enough low-level shear to enhance cell regeneration).No wind flight above 850 hPano convection anticipatedHodograph lengths 40 kts over the lowest 2-3 km AGL? (Associated with long-lived multicell systems).No wind flight above 850 hPano convection anticipatedConvoluted hodograph shapeBulk Richardson Number 40?No wind flight above 850 hPano convection anticipated有上升氣流/深厚風切之傾向?(超級雷雨胞)Invokes processes conducive to updraft rotation.Long-lived storms Forecast buoyancy moderate to strong? Note: Do not necessarily exclude processes conducive to updraft rotation in weak buoyancy environments - check BRN no convection anticipatedGenerally require hodograph lengths 30 kts over 4 to 6 km AGL.Hodograph length over surface-600 hPa (0-4 km) 50 kts?(For likely supercell development)?No wind flight above 850 hPano convection anticipatedSurface-700 hPa (0-3 km) shear 40-50 kts and hodograph a straight line? (Storms may evolve into supercells within 1 hour after initiation.)No wind flight above 850 hPano convection anticipatedSurface-800 hPa or 700 hPa (0-2 or 3 km) |SREH| 100? (Consider deviant storm motion and hodograph shape.)No wind flight above 850 hPano convection anticipatedForecast surface-800 hPa (0-2 km) storm relative inflow 20 kts?No wind flight above 850 hPano convection anticipatedAre 800-350 hPa (2-8 km) storm relative winds 25 kts?No wind flight above 850 hPano convection anticipatedBulk Richardson Number 10-50?No wind flight above 850 hPano convection anticipated檢查表 2 具有劇烈天氣傾向檢查表天氣型態Favourable pre-storm environmental conditionsRCSS22/9 RCMQ22/9 RCKU22/9 RCNN22/9 RCAY22/9 Large Hail 2 cm in diameterCAPE 1500 (non-supercell environments)?no convection anticipatedCAPE 1000 (supercell environments)?no convection anticipatedLarge proportion of CAPE from LFC to -10C?no convection anticipatedIs WBFZL height 1500-3600 m AGL(preferably 2100-2800 m)?no convection anticipatedStrong straight-line windsIs the mid-level environment R.H. 40 kts)?No wind flight above 850 hPano convection anticipatedDeep dry-adiabatic layer below cloud base?no convection anticipatedHeavy rain and flash floodsA combination of strong precipitationand long-lasting convection Strong updraft (High CAPE)?no convection anticipatedMoist environment to 500 hPa or precipitable water values significantly above average?no convection anticipatedWeak environmental wind shear in cloud layer?No wind flight above 850 hPano convection anticipatedLow cloud base and high sub-cloud base RH to reduce evaporation?no convection anticipatedSlow-moving storms ( 10-15 kts?)No wind flight above 850