管理者经济学4(视角独特,专门为管理者而写的经济学).ppt

Chapter4 TechniquesforUnderstandingConsumerDemandandBehavior GettingInformationAboutConsumerBehavior ExpertopinionConsumersurveysTestmarketingandpriceexperimentsAnalysesofcensusandotherhistoricaldataUnconventionalmethods ConsumerSurveys DirectconsumersurveysLikelyquestionsLimitationsofdirectsurveysConjointanalysisUsesarankingsystemMorerealisticthandirectsurveys TestMarketingandPriceExperiments TestmarketingAllowscompaniestostudyhowconsumershandle use andrepurchaseaproductProvidesinformationonpotentialsizeofmarketPriceexperimentsAnalyzingconsumerbehaviorincontrolledenvironments OtherMethods U S censusTargetmarketscanbedevelopedStudyofcurrentcultureEvaluatingmethodsBiasmayskewresultsExperimentsmaynotaccuratelyreflectactualbehavior ManagersmustconsiderWhethertheparticipatinggroupsaretrulyrepresentativeofthelargerpopulationWhethertheanswersgivenintheseformatsrepresentactualmarketbehaviorHowtoisolatetheeffectofdifferentvariablesinfluencingdemand ManagerialRuleofThumb AnalyzingConsumerBehavior EconomicApproachestoConsumerBehavior MultipleregressionanalysisEstimatestherelationshipbetweenadependentvariableandanindependentvariableholdingconstanttheeffectsofallothervariablesCanbedonewithspreadsheetsoftware EconomicApproachestoConsumerBehavior SimpleregressionanalysisCross sectionaldataTimeseriesdataPaneldataProvidesanequationthat bestfits thedata HypotheticalDemandforOranges Figure4 1 QuantitativeMeasure Lineardemandrelationshipcanbeshownasthisequation Q thequantitydemanded b theslopeoftheline Q P a verticalintercept P price SimpleRegressionAnalysis FormofregressionanalysisthatanalyzestherelationshipbetweenonedependentandoneindependentvariableCanbedoneeasilyusingtheMicrosoftExcelRegressionfeature SignificanceoftheCoefficients Twoimportantissues HypothesistestingforthesignificanceoftheestimatedcoefficientsThegoodnessoffitoftheentireestimatingequation StandardError SmallstandarderrormeanscoefficientwouldnotvarymuchamongregressionsT testisbasedonratioofthesizeofcoefficienttoitsstandarderrorLargevaluesoft statisticshowsignificantresults SignificanceoftheCoefficients ConfidenceintervalsCoefficientofdetermination R2AdjustedR2statisticDegreesoffreedomF statistic MultipleRegressionAnalysis Q thequantitydemanded b theslopeoftheline Q P Q a bP cADVwhere a verticalintercept P price c coefficientofadvertisingvariable ADV advertisingexpenditure MultipleRegressionAnalysis FitforAdvertisingVariable Figure4 4 OtherFunctionalForms Log lineardemandfunctionCanbelinearbytakingthelogarithmsofallvariablesinthefollowingequation Qx a Pxb ADVc Canalsobecalledconstant elasticitydemandfunctionPriceandadvertisingelasticitiescanbereaddirectlyfromstatisticalresults Log LinearDemandCurve Figure4 5 DemandEstimationIssues Examplesarenotsuitableforcomplexanalyses butcanprovideastartingpointRegressionanalysiscanbeinfluencedbydataavailabilityandunderlyingeconomictheoryAllanalysisisinfluencedbysampleofdataused ManagermustdecidewhichvariablestoincludeinananalysisProblemscanariseifrelevantvariablesareexcludedorirrelevantvariablesareincluded ManagerialRuleofThumb UsingMultipleRegression ChoiceofvariablescomesfromEconomictheoryReal worldexperienceTheproblemunderconsiderationCommonsense ManagerialRuleofThumb UsingMultipleRegression EmpiricalconsumerdemandstudiesshowtypesofdataavailableforanalyzingthedemandfordifferentproductsManydatasourcesmaynotbewidelypublicizedSomestudiesusepreviousanalyses ManagerialRuleofThumb UsingEmpiricalConsumerDemandStudies ConsumerMarketDataandEconometricDemandStudies Dubin sbookStudiesinConsumerDemand EconometricMethodsAppliedtoMarketDataCaseStudy1 CarnationCoffeemateCaseStudy2 CarnationEvaporatedMilkCaseStudy3 TheDemandforHotelRooms StatisticalandeconometricmodelscanassistindevelopingcompetitivestrategiesbyindicatingtheimportanceofcharacteristicsinfluencingdemandfordifferentproductsStudiesalsoshowwhattradeoffsconsumersmaybewillingtomake ManagerialRuleofThumb UsingConsumerMarketData SummaryofKeyTerms CoefficientofdeterminationConjointanalysisCross sectionaldataDir