微观经济学作业论文The Trend and Actuality of Real.doc

The Actuality of Real Estate in ChinaAbstract This paper is about the changes in the price of real estate in recent years and some factors that have an effect on real estate market. The first part is about the fluctuation in house price in China in recent years, and the initial analysis of the reason that caused the fluctuation, and what circumstance the fluctuation caused. The second part of this paper is the comparatively deep-going analysis about the factors that can change the house price, especially about what makes the house price goes up sharply these years. The last part is summary and my forecast about the trend of real estate.IntroductionAs we all know, the price of real estate in China rose rapidly in recent years. In some cities, the house price goes up sharply. Especially in some metropolises, such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the real estate price of some central and prosperous sections even reach 20,00040,000 each square meter. The real estate industry has become an important pillar industry in China. The Changes in the Price of Real Estate in Recent YearsTo begin with, lets talk about the development of real estate in recent years. To my knowledge, before 2007, the real estate industry of China was developing stably. Until September 27th, the policy about raising the rate of first payment of two houses was published, which held back the investment and purchase in real estate market. The house price became dropping and consumers became looking round. The low tide of real estate market brought about the breakdown of a group of house agency. Another reason of causing the depression of house market was the finance crisis in 2008. However, at the end of 2008, the real estate market began to straighten up by degrees. The number of people who bought houses increased. Whats more, the house price became rising quickly again. As to 2009, real estate industry came to a new peak. The trade of house doubled. At the same time, the problem of too-quickly rising house price has become an economic as well as a social problem that has aroused universal concerns, in particular the government. What the ever-rising house price leads to is the fierce regulation policy in allusion to real estate. The government would not look on with folded arms anymore. As a result, the State Council came out with the report about resolutely restraining the too-quickly rising of the house price in some cities, which extinguished peoples great enthusiasm for real estate market. Just one month passed, houses change from good sellers into unsalable article. A lot of house agencies begin to reduce the staff or close down shops. This is what we call the black Mayday of real estate. Although real estate market is depressed now, many career men still think the depression is temporary, and the house trade market is sure to boom again.Some Factors That Can Affect the Real Estate Market What makes the house price goes up sharply these years? What are the main factors that matter?1. the policy of government, the interest rate and the supply of currencyThere are many factors which can affect real estate market. What I have pointed out in former context is that the policy of government has a great effect on house price. For instance, I find out the interest rate have great influence on real estate price. Not only the loan interest rate, but also the deposit interest can affect the demand of real estate. In addition, the supply of currency will affect the investment scale of real estate in the aspect of supply and affect the level of purchase in the aspect of demand. At the same time, since the government widens the policy of personal house consume credit, the investment and ability of purchase are stimulated, and push the house price to rise. Also, the interest rate can affect the house price, not only the loan interest rate, but also the deposit interest rate.2. the supply of groundBesides the macroscopic regulation and currency policy of government, the supply of ground can also affect the price of real estate. Because of the monopoly of ground and effective supply, the method of assigning ground in our country changed into bid in pubic. Under the drastic competition among many developers, the posted price will be obviously higher than the base price, so that it can increase the ground expense in exploit cost. Whats more, China has a large population, but limited agrarian ground area limits the housing construction area, so the housing construction area is limited too. As a result, it will push the price of real estate to go up.3. the structure of housing supplyMoreover, according to the statistics from the real estate market information system, among all the commercial residential buildings in the 32 key cities which have report the statistics in our country in the first half year in 2009, there were 16 cities that the percentage of luxury residences were beyond 50%, and there were 9 cities that luxury residences covered more than 60%. At the same time, by contrast, there were 16 cities that economy residences were less than 10%. Luxury residences stand for those houses whose area was over 120 square meters, in the meantime, economy residences mean those houses whose area are smaller than 80 square meters. What we can see from that is that the proportion of big houses is too large. The construction of the supply of real estate is not reasonable. It is a waste of ground resource, and it will distort the demand of houses, run the average price of the commercial residential buildings up. It will be unbeneficial to deal with the housing problem of ordinary family, because it will be difficult for them to afford the expense of a big house, at the same time, a small house which they can afford is not enough for the family. Whether to be short of money or to be crowded? Both of them will give the family big pressure, not only from economy, but also from spirit. In a few words, the short of houses in medium lower price is one of the important reasons of the ever-rising price of real estate. So, the structure of housing supply has a great effect on the price of real estate. If the structure of housing supply is irrational, the real estate market will be turbulent to some extent.4. the development of economyAnother important factor is the development of economy, in that the income of residents is increasing by the rapidly-developing economy. Since the reform and opening-up and the Chinese economic reform, the GDP of our country has been developing with a relatively high pace. With the increasing of national wealth, it is sure to arouse the demand of real estate to go up. As a result, the rapid increase of GDP will also promote the real estate industry of our country to develop. The fast development of economy will certainly increase the income of residents, it is to say that the disposable income of residents will increase at the same time. The disposable income of residents decides the actual ability to afford, and thus determine the ability of residents of housing consumption. The increase of disposable income of urban residents will allow residents to purchase, and they can afford. So, they will be willing to improve living standard. Thus, it becomes a stimulation to the demand for real estate. It will push the house price to go up. Whats more, people have more money, then, they will have more rest money to invest. Many people will follow the real estate investment fever to buy house and then change hands when house price increase to make more money. This will make house price become higher and higher too.Of course, there are many other factors that have a great influence in the real estate market to a certain extent, but what I have mentioned in former context are some relatively important factors.Summary and ForecastIn our country, the proportion of the direct and indirect contribution of real estate industry to our national GDP is about 15%. The real estate industry will promote the development of a series of related industries, and it pr