经济学人-地方政府的债 常州.doc

Local-government debt 地方政府的债Looking for ways to spend 找地方花钱Buried in debt, the government struggles to lure investors in local projects背负重债的政府极力为各地项目招商引资THE Ensen Care old-age home, which is soon to open, knows its target market. A mah-jong table takes pride of place in its recreation room. Space has been made outside for tai chi practice in the morning and line dancing, much loved by Chinese pensioners, at dusk. Photos in glass cabinets depict the imagined lives of its prospective residents: grainy pictures of youths in Red Guard uniforms next to studio portraits with grandchildren in more prosperous later years.即将投入使用的恩森老年人关爱之家很清楚它的目标市场。在恩森的娱乐室中最显眼的地方放着一张麻将桌，而在室外已经预留了地方，供老人们在此早上打太极、傍晚跳他们钟爱的广场舞。玻璃橱柜中放着的照片中既有当年穿红卫兵的年轻人照片，也有后来繁荣时期他们带着孙子孙女的图片，以及他们，我们能够看到将来在此养老的老年人的生活状态。2 Few homes for Chinese senior citizens have the pedigree of Ensen Care, a subsidiary of Legend Holdings, owner of Lenovo, one of the worlds biggest computer manufacturers. The old-age home in Changzhou, a city of 4.7m west of Shanghai, is a pilot project designed to demonstrate what can be achieved when private investors provide public services. In exchange for a subsidised parcel of land, Ensen is building a hospital and a community centre, which it will transfer to the municipal authorities. The hope is that this model of public-private partnership (PPP) will help local governments bring projects to fruition without adding to their already sizeable debts. 恩森疗养所是联想控股公司旗下机构，而联想控股公司是全球最大电脑制造品牌之一联想的母公司。在中国，很少有养老机构像恩森一样，背后有大公司的支持。在上海西边的常州市有大约470万人口，他们正计划对私人投资者提供公共服务的效果进行试点。为了从政府那里获取土地购买补贴，恩森将建设一家医院，以及一个将来会过渡到市政机关的社区中心。政府希望这种“公共-私人合作”（PPP）的模式能够在不增加本就不堪重负的政府债务情况下，顺利完成项目的建设。3 If that is the idea, the old-age home testifies to the challenges not only of doing PPP deals in China but also, more broadly, of fixing shaky government finances. Ensens managers thought that they had a good arrangement. With Chinas population ageing rapidly, demand for old-age care is rising. Plenty of companies want to break into the sector. But securing operating licences is difficult. By entering into a formal partnership with the local government, Ensen thought that the obstacles would melt away.如果这个想法被付诸现实的话，那么这些养老院不仅能够说明PPP模式的可行性，同时从更高的层面来说，拯救了重不堪负的政府财政。恩森的管理层认为他们的管理模式很好。因为中国人口正在迅速老龄化，养老院的需求也在不断上升。很多企业挤破头希望进入这个领域，但想要获得运行许可证是一件难事。恩森认为通过和当地政府达成正式合作关系，能够帮助他们去除前进道路上的许多阻碍。4 Yet in its first year the company had to submit 38 reports to municipal officials to obtain all manner of approvals. Then the city government asked it to pay taxes in advance, even before the home opened its doors, in order to boost depleted local coffers. Ensen had hoped for an investment return of 7% on the home. Now, one executive complains, 3% looks optimistic. He says that the company is unlikely to do big projects like this in future.然而在运行的第一年，恩森需要向市政府办公室提交38份报告，才能获得所有政府部门的许可。此后，政府甚至要求恩森在其养老院开张之前提前缴纳税款，用于充实空虚的政府财政。恩森公司一度预期养老院的投资回报率是7%，而现在据一位行政人员称3%的回报率都是乐观预期。他还称恩森未来不可能再投资这样大的项目了。5 It is such experiences that make investors across China balk at the idea of teaming up with government. Local governments have over 1,000 PPP projects up for grabs, seeking to raise some 2 trillion yuan ($314 billion) in private-sector funding for roads, hospitals, power plants and more. Backers have been found for less than a fifth of them. Would-be investors have a long list of concerns, among them the unclear legal status of projects, poor financial prospects and government meddling. To plug the hole, provinces have even started to launch their own dedicated funds for investing in PPP projects. Yet that rather defeats the point, says Lin Caiyi of Guotai Junan Securities, a stockbrokers. Instead of public-private partnerships, they are fast becoming public-public.正是因为有上述的情况，许多中国的投资者都在与政府达成合作的路上止步不前。各地政府有超过1000个面向大众的PPP项目，它们希望能从私营机构中为道路、医院、发电厂和其他公共设施建设获取资金。但据了解，实际参与的人只有该数字的五分之一。有意参与其中的投资者有着许多疑虑，例如项目不明确的法律地位、糟糕的财政前景以及政府干预等。为了填补这个缺陷，各省政府甚至开始启用专用款项为PPP项目进行投资。国泰君安政权有限公司的林采宜（音译）称，这样的做法其实是反其道而行。这样一来，项目很快就会变成“公公合作”，而不是“公私合作”。 6 The push for PPPs, such as they are, is part of a bigger effort to shore up the fiscal position of local governments. Public debt has soared since the global financial crisis of 2008, when the government unleashed a huge stimulus to boost growth. Much of this has not been borne by the central government, which portrays itself as a picture of fiscal rectitude. Instead, it has leant on provinces and cities to foot the bill. Local-government debts have more than doubled over the past five years, to 24 trillion yuan, equivalent to nearly two-fifths of GDP (see chart). By itself that sum would be manageable. Yet Chinas public finances look precarious when the corporate liabilities of state entities are added in, since many are implicitly guaranteed by the government. At more than 250% of GDP, Chinas total debt is unusually high for an emerging market, and its recent pace of increase is worrying.类似这种推动PPP项目的做法是当地政府维持其财政水平的重大举措之一。自2008年全球金融危机以来，政府发行大量国债刺激经济增长，导致国债数量不断飙升。其中的很大一部分并不是由中央政府背负，而相反是由各省市来偿还。这也被中央政府描述成其财政清廉的一个体现。地方政府的债务在过去的五年里翻了一番，达到240亿元，接近GDP的五分之二。就其本身来说，这笔债务还是在可控范围之内。然而，在加上受到国家实体所背负受政府暗许的企业债务后，中国的公共财政情况就变得极为微妙。中国的债务总额超过GDP的250%，对于一个新兴市场经济来说，这个数字高得不正常。同时，中国总债务最近的增长态势也令人不安。7 Slowing the accumulation of debt has thus become a priority for Chinaincluding the contribution made by local governments. The authorities have cracked down on local governments rampant use of off-balance-sheet entities. Technically, Chinas cities and provinces are barred from borrowing money. To get around the ban, they created thousands of arms-length companies, known as local government financing vehicles, which were able to borrow. The popularity of these vehicles, operating in the vast grey space between Chinas private and public sectors, made it tough for the central government to keep tabs on the rapid rise in local debtof which they account for nearly half.因此减缓债务累积成为了中国政府以及各地方政府努力的首要方向。有关部门已经正在打击各地政府猖獗的表外实体操作。严格来说，中国的各级省市政府是禁止发行债券的。为了应对这一法规，各级政府设立了数以千计公司暗中为其服务，这些被叫做“各地政府融资快车”的企业是允许借贷的。运行在公营和私营两个领域间灰色地带的“快车”存在于各个省市，这让中央政府难以控制各地债务快速上升的趋势，而它们需要背负其中将近一半的债务。8 But blocking this source of finance has contributed to a slowdown in the growth of local-government revenues at a time when other hoped-for sources of funds have underwhelmed. One hope was loan securitisation, with the government telling state banks to parcel loans together and sell them on, so supposedly freeing up space for new loans. Another was a roaring stockmarket that would allow indebted state companies to bring in new investors. Yet loan securitisation is proceeding slowly, and a collapsing stockmarket has shut off the possibility of new investors. Meanwhile, land sales, one of the biggest sources of local revenues, have fallen by nearly two-fifths this year.但在其他曾被看好的渠道无法达成预期目标时，切断了这条融资渠道后使得各地政府的收益增长减缓。其中一条渠道是借贷的证券化，即政府命令国有银行将贷款打包出售，这样一来就能为新的贷款提供资金空间；另一条渠道则是建立一个生机勃勃的证券市场，允许负债国有企业在此吸引新的投资者。但贷款证券化的进程十分缓慢，而一个愈渐坍塌的证券市场对希望进入的投资者关上了大门。与此同时，今年各地最主要的收入来源已经减少了将近五分之二。9 Yet a pressing demand for investment remains. Even though China has spent a staggering 190 trillion yuan over the past five years on building homes, roads, factories, airports and more, it still has glaring gaps. Chinas capital stock per worker is just a quarter of South Koreas and a fifth of Americas. Old peoples care is one such shortfall. To reach the levels of provision of developed economies, China needs to double the 5.8m beds in its old-age homes. Other shortfalls include water pipelines, mass-transit systems, hospitals and low-income housing.然而对于投资的需求依然急迫。即使中国在过去的五年里用了数目惊人的1900亿元建设住房、道路、工厂、机场以及其他设施，其中依然存在着巨大的鸿沟。中国劳动者的人均股本仅仅是韩国的四分之一、美国的五分之一。养老院就是其中一个不足的地方。如果要达到发达国家的水平，中国需要将现在全国养老院中580万个床位数量翻一番。其他的不足还包括水管铺设、公交系统、医疗设施和低收入保障房等。10 And so, in the context of a weakening economy, the government has started to turn back towards debt. It is trying to make things a little cleaner this time. Instead of allowing local governments to use their shadowy financing vehicles again, it is giving central institutions a much bigger role. For instance, over the next couple of years China Development Bank and other government-controlled lenders in Beijing are expected to sell bonds worth more than 1 trillion yuan to invest in new construction. And the finance ministry has given provinces bigger quotas for selling bonds, while letting them swap some of their financing vehicles debt for cheaper official bonds. It has also just pledged to provide more direct fiscal