财务管理基础第五章模型PPT课件.ppt

StocksandTheirValuation 第十组 2020 3 19 1 ThedividendgrowthmodelThetotalcorporatevaluemodel 2020 3 19 2 WhatisDividendGrowthModelandTotalcorporatevaluemodel 2020 3 19 3 DividendGrowthModel DividendGrowthModelisalsocalledtheGordonDividendGrowthModel themodeldeterminetheintrinsicvalueofthestockbycalculatingthedividendpresentvaluethatthecompanypayfortheshareholdersinthefuture Itisequaltothesustainableinflowsofthefuturedividends 2020 3 19 4 DividendGrowthModelrevealtherelationshipbetweenthepriceofthestock theexpectedbasedividend thediscountRateandthedividendgrowthrateoffixed Thespecificformula Butinourcountry themodelisnotusebecausetheassumptionsofdividendGrowthModeldividendsisthatthedividendsgrowthatthesamegrowthrate thisisnotfeasibleinourimmaturestockmarket Thefeasibilityinchina 2020 3 19 5 Infact theCorporatevaluemodelisfreecashflowtofirmdiscountmodel thismodelisusedtopredictethefuturefreecashflow andtheenterpriseispositivecorelationwithenterprisefreecashflow sowecanusethemodeltoassessthevalueofacompany thisiswhywecallittheTotalcompanymodel Corporatevaluemodel Corporatevaluemodel 2020 3 19 6 Intheory theresultsofthetwomodelarethesame butinfact theresultsareusuallynotthesame Thecashflowcan tpayasdividendsatall sotheresultsofthesecondmodelishigherthanthefirst Comparethetwomodel 2020 3 19 7 a Constantgrowthmodel稳定增长模型 Equation5 1isageneralizedstockvaluationmodelinthesensethatthetimepatternofDtcanbeanything Dtcanberising falling fluctuatingrandomly oritcanevenbezeroforseveralyearsandEquation5 1willstillhold A Thedividendgrowthmodel 2020 3 19 8 Inmanycases thestreamofdividendsisexpectedtogrowataconstantrate Ifthisisthecase Equation5 1mayberewrittenasfollows ThelasttermofEquation5 2iscalledtheconstantgrowthmodel ortheGordonmodelafterMyronJ Gordon whodidmuchtodevelopandpopularizeit 2020 3 19 9 Growthindividendsoccursprimarilyasaresultofgrowthinearningspershare EPS Earningsgrowth inturn resultsfromanumberoffactors including 1 inflation 通货膨胀 2 theamountofearningsthecompanyretainsandreinvests 公司留存和用于再收益的收益总额 3 therateofreturnthecompanyearnsonitsequity ROE 公司股权资本的收益率 Dividendandearningsgrowth 2020 3 19 10 Theconstantgrowthmodelisoftenappropriateformaturecompanieswithastablehistoryofgrowth Expectedgrowthratesvarysomewhatamongcompanies butdividendgrowthformostmaturefirmsisgenerallyexpectedtocontinueinthefutureataboutthesamerateasnominalgrossdomesticproduct realGDPplusinflation Onthisbasis onemightexpectthedividendsofanaverage or normal companytogrowatarateof5to8percentayear Whencantheconstantgrowthmodelbeused 2020 3 19 11 Equation5 2issufficientlygeneraltohandlethecaseofazerogrowthstock wherethedividendsisexpectedtoremainconstantovertime Ifg 0 Equation5 2reducedtoEquation5 3 b Zerogrowthstock零增长股票 2020 3 19 12 c Expectedrateofreturnonaconstantgrowthstock稳定增长股票的期望收益率 2020 3 19 13 1 Thedividendisexpectedtogrowforeverataconstantrate g 2 Thestockpriceisexpectedtogrowatthissamerate 3 Theexpecteddividendyieldisaconstant 4 Theexpectedcapitalgainsyieldisalsoaconstant anditisequaltog Theexpectedtotalrateofreturn isequaltotheexpecteddividendyieldplustheexpectedgrowthrate dividendyield g Foraconstantgrowthstock thefollowingconditionmusthold 2020 3 19 14 Example AssumethatAlliedFoodProductsjustpaidadividendof 1 15 Itsstockshasarequiredrateofreturn Ks 13 4 andinvestorsexpectthedividendtogrowataconstant8percentrateinthefuture 1 242 Ks 13 4 1 341 1 448 D0 1 15 g 8 findtheexpecteddividendstreamforthenext3years andtheirPVs 2020 3 19 15 Whatisthestock sintrinsicvalue 2020 3 19 16 Whatwouldtheexpectedpricetodaybe ifg 0 Thedividendstreamwouldbeaperpetuity D0 1 15 2020 3 19 17 Example ifyoubuyastockforapriceP0 23 andifyouexpectthestocktopayAdividendD1 1 242oneyearfromnowandTogrowataconstantrateg 8 inthefuture Whatistheexpectedrateofreturn 2020 3 19 18 B TheCorporateValueModel公司估值模型 thefreecashflowmethod Afirm svalueisdeterminedbyitsabilitytogeneratecashflow bothnowandfuture Marketvalueofcompany PVofexpectedfuturefreecashflows FCF NOPAT Netnewinvestmentinoperatingcapital 2020 3 19 19 Thestepstofindafirm svalue 1 assumethatthefirmwillexperiencenonconstantgrowthforNyears afterwhichitwillgrowatsomeconstantrate 2 CalculatetheexpectedfreecashflowforeachoftheNnonconstantgrowthyears andfindthePVofthesecashfiows 2020 3 19 20 3 RecognizethatafterYearNgrowthwillbeconstant Therefore wecanusetheconstantgrowthformulatofindthefirm svalueatYearN This Terminalvalue isthesumofthePVsoftheFCFsforN 1andallsubsequentyears discountedbacktoYearN Then theyearNvaluemustbediscountedbacktothepresenttofinditsPVatYear0 4 NowsumallthePVs thoseoftheannualfreecashflowsduringthenonconstantperiodplusthePVoftheterminalvalue tofindthefirm svalue 2020 3 19 21 公司估值模型例题 某企业2007年利润表反映实现的净利润为95万元 补贴收入50万元 包括企业增值税出口退税30万元和因洪灾政府专项补贴20万元 营业外支出30万元 为企业遭受洪灾的损失支出 经分析 预计从2008年至2012年企业的净利润将在2007年正常净利润水平上每年递增1 从2013年到2017年企业净利润将保持在2012年净利润水平上 企业将在2017年底停止生产 整体变现 预计变现值约为140万元 若折现率为10 企业所得税税率为25 要求 评估2007年12月31日该企业的价值 2020 3 19 22 1 正常净利润 95 30 20 1 25 102 5 万元 企业增值税出口退税30万元 按照国税退税法规 应该是退的增值税进项税 与所得税无关 洪灾政府专项补贴20万元 按照国家相关规定洪灾政府专项补贴收入免税的 2020 3 19 23 2 计算2008 2012年各年净利润 理论上 企业净利润 营业收入 营业支出 主营业务税金及附加 营业外收支净额 1 所得税率 实际中 净利润 营业收入 营业成本 营业税金及附加 销售费用 财务费用 管理费用 投资收益 营业外收支净额 1 所得税率 在财务实务中 企业的账面利润不等于应纳税所得额 也就是上述 营业收入 营业支出 主营业务税金及附加 营业外收支净额 在企业实际计算所得税时 可能需要调整相关项目或金额 2008年净利润 102 5 1 1 103 525 万元 2009年净利润 103 525 1 1 104 560 万元 2010年净利润 104 560 1 1 105 606 万元 2011年