成品油零售市场激烈竞争背景下的加油站开发项目风险管理研究.doc

摘要当今世界经济错综繁杂、瞬息万变，受全球国际形势、市场变化的影响，我国成品油市场竞争也日趋复杂和激烈，而成品油销售企业作为市场竞争主体，面对日益复杂的市场环境，其企业的经营发展也面临着新的挑战和问题。加油站历来都是成品油销售企业的主要销售渠道，直接面对客户，是成品油销售企业的主要利润来源。因此，加油站项目开发的成败直接决定了成品油销售企业的生存和发展。加油站开发通常以工程项目为导向，投资周期长、投入资金数额大、涉及领域多，而且容易受到国家宏观经济调控、土地调控等政策面的影响，因此加油站项目的开发面临着巨大的风险。但是目前在我国，无论是在理论研究还是实际操作方面，加油站项目的风险管理都还处于起步阶段，成品油销售企业对于加油站开发的项目风险意识淡薄，风险管控能力欠缺，使得加油站项目的开发基本上还是处于一种较为粗放的阶段，给企业带来极大的不确定性和经营风险。所以对加油站开发项目风险管理进行深入研究，提出全面系统、操作性强的的方法对加油站开发项目进行风险管理就显得极为迫切。本论文以项目风险管理的基本理论为依据，结合加油站项目开发的实际情况，重点对加油站开发项目运行的全过程进行风险识别、风险评估、风险应对和风险监控的研究。从全面风险识别的角度，较系统地总结了加油站开发项目全过程的风险，包括投资决策阶段、前期准备阶段、项目建设阶段和项目运营阶段的风险；结合加油站开发项目的特点，归纳了风险识别、风险评估、风险应对和风险监控的技术和方法。最后，以A加油站开发项目作为案例，将基于加油站开发全过程的理论和方法应用其中，运用定性分析和定量分析的方法对项目风险进行识别和评估，并有针对性地提出风险应对措施和建议。试图从理论上、方法上为加油站开发企业和项目管理人员提供风险管理的有效的方法和思路。关键词：风险识别风险评估风险应对AbstractBeing the main channel of oil sale and the main soiii二ee of revenue,the developing Of gas station decides where the company are goinggas station Gas station developing is a project-oriented industryIts main femure is long investment period，capitalintensive，complicated areas involved and national policies boundedWith the complicated international economical situation,furious developing competition and issuing new policy of soil，domestic service station developing company are facing more large challenges，risk of service station developing project are getting seriousNow being in the initial stage of the implementing of risk management in service station developing in china with poor risk management，not SO much attention is paid to risks of service station developing project，it is necessary to carry out a study with systemic and dynamic methods on risk management in service station developing proj ect at presentAccording to the characters of service station developing project，the paper makes a deep research in total risk managemem based on process：risk identification，risk evaluation，risk response and risk monitorIt summarizes all kinds of risks at four stages and the ways of risk identification，risk evaluation，risk response and risk monitorBased on above theory,it chooses the A service station developing project and uses the total risk management to identify and analyze the risks of A projectIt gives some advices to the project at lastThe paper attempts to support the methods and thoughts of risk management for