课件-跨国公司理财-第3周ppt课件.ppt

Chapter2 TheInternationalMonetarySystem Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 2 Topics HistoryoftheInternationalMonetarySystemContemporaryCurrencyRegimes Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 3 HistoryoftheInternationalMonetarySystem TheGoldStandard 1876 1913 Rulesofthegame eachcountrysettherateatwhichitscurrencyunitcouldbeconvertedtoaweightofgoldCurrencyexchangerateswere fixed Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 4 HistoryoftheInternationalMonetarySystem TheInter WarYears WWII 1914 1944 Currencieswereallowedtofluctuateoverafairlywiderangeintermsofgold DuringWWIItheUSdollarwastheonlymajortradingcurrencythatcontinuedtobeconvertible Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 5 HistoryoftheInternationalMonetarySystem BrettonWoodsandtheInternationalMonetaryFund IMF 1944 establishedaUSdollarbasedinternationalmonetarysystemcreatedtwonewinstitutionsInternationalMonetaryFund IMF WorldBankSpecialDrawingRight SDR Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 6 HistoryoftheInternationalMonetarySystem EurocurrenciesThesearedomesticcurrenciesofonecountryondepositinasecondcountrytwovaluablepurposes holdingexcesscorporateliquidityasourceofshort termbankloans Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 7 HistoryoftheInternationalMonetarySystem EurocurrencyInterestRates LIBORAttractbothdepositorsandborrowerstoEurocurrencymarkets LoanratearelowerDepositratearehigher Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 8 Contemporarycurrencyregimes DemonetizationofgoldDiversificationofinternationalreservesLegalizationofFloatingregime Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 9 Contemporarycurrencyregimes TheIMF sExchangeRateRegimeClassifications ExchangearrangementswithnoseparatelegaltenderCurrencyboardarrangementsOtherconventionalfixedpegarrangementsPeggedexchangerateswithinhorizontalbandsCrawlingpegsExchangerateswithincrawlingpegsManagedfloatingwithnopre announcedpathIndependentfloating Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 10 Contemporarycurrencyregimes ThechoicebetweenFixedandFlexibleRatesAnation schoicereflectsnationalprioritiesincluding inflation unemployment interestratelevels tradebalances economicgrowth Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 11 FixedVersusFlexibleExchangeRates Countrieswouldpreferafixedrateregimeforthefollowingreasons stabilityininternationalpricesinherentanti inflationarynatureTheproblemsoffixedrateregime maintainlargequantitiesofinternationalreservesFixedratescanbemaintainedatratesthatareinconsistentwitheconomicfundamentals Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 12 Attributesofthe Ideal Currency Possessesthreeattributes oftenreferredtoastheImpossibleTrinity ExchangeratestabilityFullfinancialintegrationMonetaryindependenceTheforcesofeconomicstonotallowthesimultaneousachievementofallthree Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 13 EmergingMarketsandRegimeChoices Acurrencyboardexistswhenacountry scentralbankcommitstobackitsmonetarybase itsmoneysupply entirelywithforeignreservesatalltimes Thismeansthataunitofdomesticcurrencycannotbeintroducedintotheeconomywithoutanadditionalunitofforeignexchangereservesbeingobtainedfirst Argentinamovedfromamanagedexchangeratetoacurrencyboardin1991In2002 thecountryendedthecurrencyboardasaresultofsubstantialeconomicandpoliticalturmoil Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 14 EmergingMarketsandRegimeChoices DollarizationistheuseoftheUSdollarastheofficialcurrencyofthecountry Oneattractionofdollarizationisthatsoundmonetaryandexchange ratepoliciesnolongerdependontheintelligenceanddisciplineofdomesticpolicymakers Panamahasusedthedollarasitsofficialcurrencysince1907EcuadorreplaceditsdomesticcurrencywiththeUSdollarinSeptember 2000 Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 15 TheEuro BirthofaEuropeanCurrency InDecember1991 themembersoftheEuropeanUnionmetatMaastricht theNetherlandstofinalizeatreatythatchangedEurope scurrencyfuture ThistreatysetoutatimetableandaplantoreplaceallindividualECUcurrencieswithasinglecurrencycalledtheeuro Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 16 TheEuro BirthofaEuropeanCurrency TopreparefortheEMU aconvergencecriteriawaslaidoutwherebyeachmembercountrywasresponsibleformanagingthefollowingtoaspecificlevel NominalinflationratesLong terminterestratesFiscaldeficitsGovernmentdebtInaddition astrongcentralbank calledtheEuropeanCentralBank ECB wasestablishedinFrankfurt Germany Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 17 EffectsoftheEuro Theeuroaffectsmarketsinthreeways CheapertransactionscostsintheEuroZoneCurrencyrisksandcostsrelatedtouncertaintyarereducedAllconsumersandbusinessesbothinsideandoutsidetheEuroZoneenjoypricetransparencyandincreasedprice basedcompetition Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 18 AchievingMonetaryUnification Iftheeuroistobesuccessful itmusthaveasolideconomicfoundation Theprimarydriverofacurrency svalueisitsabilitytomaintainitspurchasingpower Thesinglelargestthreattomaintainingpurchasingpowerisinflation sothejoboftheEUhasbeentopreventinflationaryforcesfromunderminingtheeuro Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 19 ExchangeRateRegimes TheFuture Allexchangerateregimesmustdealwiththetradeoffbetweenrulesanddiscretion vertical aswellasbetweencooperationandindependence horizontal seeexhibit2 8 ThepreWWIGoldStandardrequiredadherencetorulesandallowedindependenceTheBrettonWoodsagreement andtoacertainextenttheEMS alsorequiredadherencetorulesinadditiontocooperationThepresentsystemischaracterizedbynorules withvaryingdegreesofcooperationManybelievethatanewinternationalmonetarysystemcouldsucceedonlyifitcombinedcooperationamongnationswithindividualdiscretiontopursuedomesticsocial economic andfinancialgoals Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 20 Mini CaseQuestions TheRevaluationoftheChineseYuan ManyChinesecriticshadurgedChinatorevaluetheyuanby20 ormore WhatwouldtheChineseyuan svaluebeinUSdollarsifithadindeedbeendevaluedby20 DoyoubelievethattherevaluationoftheChineseyeanwaspoliticallyoreconomicallymotivated Copyright 2007PearsonAddison Wesley Allrightsreserved 2 21 Mini CaseQuestions TheRevaluationoftheChineseYuan cont d IftheChineseyuanweretochangebythemaximumallowedperday 0 3 againsttheUSdollar consistentlyovera30or60dayperiod whatextremevaluesmightitreach Chinesemultinationalswouldnowbefacingthesameexchangerate relatedrisksbornebyUS Japanese andEuropeanmultinationals WhatimpactdoyoubelievethisrisingriskwillhaveonthestrategyandoperationsofChinesecompaniesinth