国贸经济管理类毕业论文-人民币汇率变化对石油进出口的影响

H/0JA FJE1E !RE;E+X1 ?Mhk-MW=yo_+Gz_g_fC|o5z,xkDLO,oBoKGMJg+MkU+k+9Gzlo,o4xYCOkMy#oG+KGMJBokPBoo,oBocz)k4KGMJ+MkM4q k%9MkP%M_zk9*MkM+zGJoGU4+oKA KGMH/0JA FJE1E !RE;E+X2AbstractPetroleum is known as the big raw materials of industry. It is scarce resource,a security strategic resource of state economy, so it influences national economydeeply. With economy development of our country, the demand for petroleumincreases rapidly, while the production of domestic cannot meet the demand. Sothe author makes a thorough research on petroleum international price mechanism,put off the countermeasures on petroleum international price risk, will have apractical significance on guaranteeing the fast and stable development of nationaleconomy.This paper mainly based on theory of elasticity to study mineral and Renminbi.The introduction mainly introduced the background of research, literature review,methodology, innovation and weakness. Second part depends on regressionanalysis, has analyzed the effect that exchange rates for the Renminbi againstother currencies changes as well as to resource product import and exporttheoretically, knowing the regulation of exchange rate in a narrow rang will bringsome benefit, on the one hand, it will be of advantage to import the petroleumbadly need in our country, on the other hand, it will spur the imported petroleumto reduce the prices so that our country will alleviate the restrict of economicdevelopment caused by resource bottleneck by means of importing petroleum.The third has put forward the countermeasure answering risk rationally. Keywords Rates for the Renminbi Regression analysisTheory of elasticityH/0JA FJE1E !RE;E+X3- 1 ,A . 41.1.D06 . 41.2 .D0?y . 41.3 -F-()N . 51.4 .D0MD . 52 w)F*,086 . 62.1 iWA . 62.2 CW16# . 72.3 hf6# . 73 NA1w)F,E0; . 83.1 w)N4qB3&O . 83.2 w)*0c&O . 83.3 w)0c9w&O . 84 A-.#F*A . 94.1 F+|.# . 94.2 A-.#F* . 105 A1w)FA).#F*, . 115.1 $*6A . 115.2 0s6 . 115.3 56 . 136 5AiF*A . 146.1 w)iW|$&#k,w)fB3.#lB3 . 156.2. *02jrj*.p,.#ljfG8w)iM . 156.3 FJEM0B3w)iM.#lB3 . 1563) . 178$ BR . 18H/0JA FJE1E !RE;E+X4A1w)F).#F*,1 ,A1.1.D06FCh? QChC1y77-;-_H)FChC0,-Z8# 2006 118-E 15935.65sF*N 1565.25sA-FCh? QX*319_F+|19ChCW-:F4 90 0F+|J00!QE0+E-0GJEA19F+|-+a!-.#,A-)jF+|:!Q5-,F+|1W.#FW-XA-F*=K,E0;F+|:,l#n:-Lul 2000 , 26.3628.97 5s#4 605s.#./_005jWCt$_G?,Ct$W_G?,JH+(Ct.#F+XFJFE.#F1y4|4J0 j4#s8#Z/nJ,U8TH4#p#.#,#qi-pF+|o4#,lp?90/,7-.#-LuL$.#,ja=J!XA-+a!Q.#j(6F=Q6F+|2j63+,3WA-).#,OCCQ)X-!YF 2007.#A1-Lu!:# 5 5sFx-!Ya?J_ 1000 75s-$,8$-+Okl GDP;L 0.4 0.5Z,6&.#)A-4#,G?WQH+QG?.#_A-F*p-NEW,FJE)F/F*,k?6.D0A1w)FA).#F*,1.2 .D0?y-F)A1w)LN,T6-; ,w)LN,M5H+ak?_A-4#d84hCVgCtCVgXN ,+a!,8$xJ5s,w)f=7-F2A-)F4#FO,?rA-Lu63Ct$+&N,0*p,.-. ,_A-)A1w)fF|iM,$!r!QjAH/0JA FJE1E !RE;E+X5-ChCN_Ct$,#6Gj ,-Ct$Wl9F/ChCN=915W ,*CJ ,)-Ct$W,#6GCW ,8$)Ct$W,(6JCL ,F/)Ct$,E#6GJ#0G6-4#K,a! ,w)jB38-FCt$#q, ,XiMB.#lB351C631uj1W.#F-XMd8D9L-LuF*2jCC3W-Lul88:w,;O-pA1w)iMF0&OB3lB3.#F*!_A-Md,0ZG?B.Np.D0A1w)FA).#F*,)A-,.#5$4#Y,4#9G?,)?y1.3 -F-()NL-pCt$W-Lul,OFO:#65)CC#k?$5iW*6ACW16#hf6#)-()F|*6iWA0x+a9!-4#P!wD 1*45F:T_1yj-Luf_*6A,G?iWA0 -Luf_B3,iW#_7F+Xw)l,)4hN-aF|B38,#+aF0B3jfF*v,riW3+7p0 jiWACW16# 2_ 20F4 705-8W,4#54(g:DGg46 F:1yF+XCW1kyB$.D0B38-Luf_LN,*6A-LuCW1*H44 (IMF)G+X,k?*6A_CW16#hf6#_+a?lgW1y4#X 20F4 50*,?4#j*.p,-Luf_B38*6AF0*6A,-Af0;?.D0kfk_*)-Luf_,*-(,o1kP1.4.D0MDk?.D0A1w)FA).#F*,!=?6A1w),3PF?6.#l,FiW*6A*+X0s6).#,lA1w),F|.D01P!wD 1965:4#*6vO2 7$E1y 2003-LuH=-CRo4#*(x/nH/0JA FJE1E !RE;E+X6X!*.p:*A-B3.#F*lG,)1Oxx)iWACW16#1y*1,4!QNA1w)F,=A1w)F58C604*-(,)1x2 w)F*,086A1w)fB3,E0;a_XA-o,-1;A1)90c!wl,E0;F?-p?r,A1X.OWuwl_=MChCL$,-()l,-,F*M0r61jP!wD4&F0&a_-CW1Cl7-OV-Luf_i,&v_XLuXP!wD4Cl=7-P:iChCf_-(XCl00!&L$ChCf_7-Fn 2.1 2001-2006vM *kN5s FkN5s w)2001 2661.55 2436.13 8.262002 3255.69 2952.16 8.2772003 4383.7 4128.4 8.2772004 5933.6 5613.8 8.2772005 7620 6601.2 8.16172006 1-118 8750.4 7185.2 8.00321P!wD4#*6vO 1965(xH/0JA FJE1E !RE;E+X7Ct$A-vGv5AF*5AvG51 .2.2 CW16#CW16#,*0;?_ R=MD D ? R/j8-F,CW1* MD/j-=yCW1,M0rG D/j-,=yCW1GMDj!/j-Luf_N DjCO/j-Luf_F6w),CW16# (1)w)-CW15!F-CW155-CW15G,15K6,8$5-ldKO5s,w) )J5-CW150C5-CW15G,XKO6,8$5s-()A1,-Y)-():w&w)IJ:w (7F1wl )w),CW16*,F05AB$,5A!-(08B$A)0-CW1w);L&GB3QY),J9YCW1wl (jF#qFJFJCW3W5Y )vFG*,_Zf-(,5A0-Y):wJ,8$B-,LuCW1M0rA6/j-Luf_N Y/j-Af A/jkhf0-,#CiCtF01y?zAA-AfWkhf&-Luf_jN-Af?khf&-Luf_jF6-Af1ykhf&-Luf_j(1 1hf6#?4#,63Cl)-Luf_,F0*6AAj0-CW1Cl?Ci-Luf_,+XN9L5Ct$,X9XL5Ct$&ClL5Ct$#q*+OGL*7-W!Q*PEC-AfKCl7-04i-Luf_DELuhfnA? 100%Cl&,-AfJWkhf-Luf_7-ihf6#F*8!,o1Gx-Luf_aLNXL5Ct$G+XCW1Clo1PWCRoCW1o1G=XL5Ct$IG+XCW1Clo13W5YWCRoCW1o1G1(-Lu4#4#0*(x/n 1994(xH/0JA FJE1E !RE;E+X8+XCW1Cl,#i-Luf_3 NA1w)F,E0;8*-A-A1w)fi=|3A1w)iM,#A-0|2jrj*.p6302CW1F|B3891*6,#w)f3.1 w)N4qB3&O1949 1993XF 44L$4(|f-0CW19!K,f-02CW11y!Qw)fiML$A1w)#C=0,*=0c9w0,15;Cw)2.42A15s;C8# 93,5sA1 5.73.2 w)*0c&O 1994 2005 w)fGWiM91*6,#w)fA10!E5s 8.70 sA1-Fw7Wu:w 1996 12 8 1 -4hCVgA1w)?uwlj 8.3 5sX!A1,w*X 8.28 5s:;#,u? 1997 A1w)41XE093$#u=CE 120Z*&9L?*M6V,AH=w4 13.3 w)0c9w&O2005 7 8 21 8#A-0|2jrj*.p6302CW1F|B38 , 91*6,#w)f , A1w)=-05s ,$iW,A1w)fA1w)B3j 1 5s 8.111 sA1w)o1-7j5$1A1X8*6 , wd:,0cX 2006 A1w)wluj 2007 GA15sC#u+a 3W8# 5XF0JOL$A1w)B3wl11y 2005A1w)fiM91*6,# J4#.D01OH/0JA FJE1E !RE;E+X9n 3.1 7vKGMn 5s)A1 5s)A11984 229.6 1995 846.11985 284.8 1996 831.41986 336 1997 8281987 362 1998 8261988 394.4 1999 8261989 394.4 2000 8261990 507.9 2001 8261991 520 2002 827.71992 533 2003 827.71993 570 2004 827.71994 846.1 2005 819.17Ct$-Fw1*6pFw5A-Fw1*6p51zG6.n 3.2 2006v 1-10%KGMn8- 5sA18w A1wlu8 8.06688 8.0493 0.22%8 8.035 0.18%8 8.0156 0.24%8 8.0152 0.01%8 8.0067 0.11%8 7.991 0.20%8 7.9733 0.22%8 7.9368 0.46%108 7.9032 0.43%Ct$-Fw1*6pFw5A-Fw1*6p51zG64 A-.#F*A4.1 F+|.#20F4 908#X.#+OM!W.#G15F+|kG, 1985, 24.6%4j 6.8X:wj 2001H/0JA FJE1E !RE;E+X10, 43.5%4j 15.6X.#*GCEF+|*kG, 60%X.#CiM0rM 905-4#915QFOK.#Ci=0w 2001.#CiEX#4F+|.#k#CiG, 26%4 61%MF!Fm1!W#b.#CiK5Cv 2001#CiG6F+|k#CiG, 21.7% 7%#!W5,.#CiGCEF+|.#kG, 50%l#?,_F 10 ZjJF-.#CiU0wFG=jF+|.#Ci2j,+OGA-.#CiG 90M, 1.2X 2002, 2.4X#wK) 5.8%j!Q5-,F+|19W.#Ci-4 30%MF 2002FE 69417X#jF+|qWF-0n 4.1 sDOLg - .#G7X1 (Lo_ 421502 5 410803 5- 286254 :G 186505 - 17075Ct$9!l,TF=TAUBF+|4#sGW*(x/n1 264N4.2 A-.#F*2005-GE 28622.37X)X-.#Ct$,Lf 2010 -.#FG6E 22.4X 2020 6 3.23.6 X 2010 -.#)F6CE 60% 2020.#)F6E 70%#H/0JA FJE1E !RE;E+X11n 4.2 2000l 2005vMOYCDO +OG FG *G7X2000 16300 9748.5 2172.12001 16395.9 9118.2 2046.72002 16700 10269.3 2139.22003 16960 13189.6 2540.82004 17587.3 17291.3 2240.62005 18135.3 17163.2 2888.1Ct$-#k5 2006-#5A#k551 .A-KOChCN_Ct$,#6Gj,-.#l9pA-)X0Ulf.#,*GAF#*F00,?AA-.#,*p-.#1JMd-p=Y,*)XA*G,TZG_V0CFFA1*N#0;NAFTZG_0CF,F_0/(3+*F|N#,#Xi5ACtr3+,-(3+-(3+CW3+C7FJE-(3+a.0;N#(,C5.20s6n 5.1 1995v CPIC EXI_6cpi cpi1 exi exi14.59744039 99.23 3.59571703 1004.58934564 98.43 3.7005274 111.054.55008022 94.64 3.76427768 118.364.3689414 78.96 3.91344323 137.44.40476612 81.84 4.34444082 211.434.60517019 100 4.60517019 274.414.56829871 96.38 4.64845989 286.55H/0JA FJE1E !RE;E+X124.48998378 89.12 4.6534726 287.994.31267656 74.64 4.62797582 280.744.19584765 66.41 4.63231206 281.964.22639569 68.47 4.60298128 273.814.44206285 84.95 4.54218773 257.664.24534744 69.78 4.51866555 251.674.3025775 73.89 4.50631157 248.584.98613766 146.37 4.51584041 250.964.85444921 128.31 4.48055838 242.26Ct$iMlCtA1p# EXI 1995j*O,)FA15sFw7 CPI 1995j*O,.#vl)F7n 5.2 1995v CPIC EXI_TOCPI EXIMean 4.483720 4.353271Median 4.466023 4.517253Maximum 4.986138 4.653473Minimum 4.195848 3.595717Std. Dev. 0.220517 0.376465Skewness 0.742568 -1.102433Kurtosis 3.001692 2.505022Jarque-Bera 1.470421 3.404289Probability 0.479405 0.182292Sum 71.73952 69.65234Sum Sq. Dev. 0.729419 2.125892Observations 16 16Ct$iMlCtA1p+a 5.2G EXI,!1WP. 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