电池市场分析与市场展望.ppt

BatteryMarketDevelopmentforConsumerElectronics Automotive andIndustrial MaterialsRequirementsandTrendsChristophePILLOTDirector AVICENNEENERGYPresentationOutline Therechargeablebatterymarketin2013 TheLi ionbatteryvaluechain Li ionbatterymaterialmarket Forecasts conclusions MillionHEVpoweredbyLIB NumberofEVsoldworldwide Million ChristophePILLOT 33147784600c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterials trends2013 2025 CIBF2014 June18 20 Shenzhen China AVICENNEENERGY RENOWNEDTOHAVEREALISTICFORECASTS HEVpoweredbyLithiumionbatteryforecastsfrom2008to2013 EVsold inmillionunits worldwide 2010 2020 0 1 2 3 4 5 2010 2015 2020 Source InternationalBatteryConference FortLauderdale2007 2008 2009 2010 2011AABCJune2007 2 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 1 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 2 200820092010201120122013 IIT2007 IIT2008 IIT2009 IIT2010 AAB 2012 ROLANDBERGER 2011 IIT MARCH2010 ROLANDBERGER 2012 AVICENNE2007 2012 DEUTSCHEBANK 2012 IIT MARCH2011 AABREALITYAVICENNE2007 MillionUnits year MillionUnits Year Tonsofcathode Year Wh ChristophePILLOT 33147784600 c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025 CIBF2014June18 20Shenzhen China 3 THEBATTERYMARKETISREALLYDYNAMIC 2000150010005000 2013 CellularPhonessoldperYear Million Li ionNiMH2000 5004003002001000 200MTablets195MPortablePCs2013 PortablePCsoldperYear Million Li ionNiMH2000 10000080000600004000020000 02000Source AVICENNEENERGYAnalyses2013 2013 TonsofLi ionCathodeperyear 0 32 521 510 5 2000 2013 Li ion18650cellprice Wh MWh ChristophePILLOT 33147784600 c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025CIBF2014June18 20Shenzhen China 35000300002500020000150001000050000 1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 Others Flowbattery NAS Li ionNiMHNiCD 4 Source AVICENNEENERGY 2013 THEWORLDWIDEBATTERYMARKET1990 2013LithiumIonBattery Highestgrowth majorpartofindustryinvestments500004500040000 MWh MWh ChristophePILLOT 33147784600 c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025 CIBF2014June18 20Shenzhen China 150000100000500000 200000 250000 450000400000350000300000 19902000201020122013 Others Flowbattery NAS Li ion NiMH NiCDLeadAcid 150000100000500000 200000 400000350000300000250000 19902000201020122013 THEWORLDWIDEBATTERYMARKET1990 2013LithiumIonBattery Highestgrowth majorpartoftheinvestmentsLeadacidbatteries Byfarthemostimportantmarket 90 marketshare 5 Source AVICENNEENERGY 2013 BillionUS BillionUS 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2015 2020 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2015 2020 ChristophePILLOT 33147784600 c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025CIBF2014 June18 20Shenzhen China 9080706050403020100 Others Flowbattery NAS Li ionNiMHNiCDLeadAcid THEWORLDWIDEBATTERYMARKET1990 202054BILLIONUS in2013 Packlevel15 AVERAGEGROWTHPERYEAR 1990 2013 6 9080706050403020100 OTHERSAUTOMOTIVEINDUSTRIALE BIKESPOWERTOOLSPORTABLESLI Source AVICENNEENERGY 2013 SLI Startlightandignitionbatteriesforcars truck moto boatetc PORTABLE concumerelectronics cellular portablePCs tablests Camera datacollection handyterminals POWERTools powertoolsbutalsogardeningtoolsINDUSTRIAL MOTIVE Forklift 95 othersSTATIONARY Telecom UPS EnergyStorageSystem Medical Others EmergencyLighting Security RailroadSignaling DieselGenerator Starting Control Switchgear AUTOMOTIVE HEV P HEV EVOTHERS Medical wheelchairs medicalcarts medicaldevices surgicalpowertools mobileinstrumentation x ray ultrasound EKG ECG largeoxygenconcentrators1 Pack cell cellassembly BMS connectors Powerelectronics DCDCconverters invertors notincluded 0 0 ChristophePILLOT 33147784600c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025CIBF2014June18 20Shenzhen China SLIAutomotivePortable 10000 400003000020000 50000 60000 SLI AutomotivePortable OtherApplications Marine MedicaldevicesWheelchairMedicalCartOtherStationarySeismicESSOtherStand byUPSTelecom OtherMotive ForkliftPowerTools 7 THEWORLDWIDEBATTERYMARKETIN2013 US 54BILLIONBatterymarketin2013 M 2000 1200010000800060004000 14000 16000 18000 E BikesLeadAcidLIB1 Packlevel Packincludingcells cellsassembly BMS connectors Powerelectronics DCDCconverters invertors notincludedSource AVICENNEENERGY 2013 OtherApplicationsMarine Medicaldevices Wheelchair MedicalCartOtherStationarySeismicESSOtherStand byUPSTelecomOtherMotive Forklift PowerToolsE Bikes MWh MWh 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ChristophePILLOT 33147784600 c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025CIBF2014June18 20Shenzhen China LI IONIN2013MAINAPPLICATIONS CELLULAR NOTEBOOK 8 Note 1 2013 AvicenneForecasts 2 Celllevel CellularPhones PortablePCs Others TabletsDigitalCamera PowerToolsVideoGames CamcordersMP3 Householddevices ToysE bikes AutoOthers 5000Mcells 39000MWh12000M 2 Li ionBatterysales MWh Worldwide 2000 2013 1 400003500030000250002000015000100005000 CAGR2003 2013 26 peryearinVolume 14 peryearinvalueLi ionBatterysales MWh Worldwide 2000 2013 1 220002000018000160001400012000100008000600040002000 M M 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ChristophePILLOT 33147784600c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025CIBF2014June18 20Shenzhen China LI IONIN2013MAINAPPLICATIONS CELLULAR NOTEBOOK 9 Note 1 2013 AvicenneForecasts 2 Celllevel 5000Mcells 39000MWh12000M 2 Li ionBatterysales M Worldwide 2000 2013 1 1400012000100008000600040002000 CellularPhones PortablePCs Others CAGR2003 2013 26 peryearinVolume 14 peryearinvalueLi ionBatterysales M Worldwide 2000 2013 1 70006000500040003000200010000 Automotives Tablets Powertools CamcordersGames DigitalcameraE Bikes MP3Others Mcells month 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Mcells Year OversupplyRatio ChristophePILLOT 33147784600c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterials trends2013 2025 CIBF2014 June18 20Shenzhen China 10 BATTERYPRICEISDECREASINGDRASTICALLY In10Years80 pricedecreasingdespiteafluctuatingCoprice 50 40 30 20 10 0 30002500200015001000500 StandardDemandProductionCapacity TESLAOversupplyratio 0 00 AverageLIBcellprice Wh 1 000 800 600 400 20 200520062007200820092010201120122013 Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate 300250200150100500 BAKATLLishenE OneLGSDIMAXELLSONY PANASONIC SANYO Source UMICORE march2011Productioncapacity2009 2011 from150to250Mcells month Note Q42013 Cylindrical 0 17 Wh Laminates 0 3 Wh18650oversupplyratioisdecreasingthankstoTESLA c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025CIBF2014June18 20Shenzhen ChinaChristophePILLOT 33147784600 11 LI IONVALUECHAINCATHODE90OOOTin2013Revenues 2 1B CAGR03 13 16 ANODE47000TRevenues 0 75B CAGR03 13 14 ELECTROLYTE CELLMANUFACTURERSRevenues 12B Grossmargin 10 PACKMANUFACTURERSRevenues 17B Grossmargin 10 35000TRevenues 0 6B CAGR03 13 20 SEPARATOR600Mm Revenues 1B CAGR03 13 18 BINDER6700TonsRevenues 0 2B CAGR03 13 15 ANCILLARYRevenues 0 7B Tons 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ChristophePILLOT 33147784600 c pillot TheworldwideBattery marketandmaterialstrends2013 2025 CIBF2014 June18 20Shenzhen China NEWENTRANTSONTHEFIELD CATHODEACTIVEMATERIALSNEEDSBYCHEMISTRY 300002000010000 5000040000 LFP LMONCA NMCLCO CathodeactivematerialsforLIB inTons 2000 201310000090000800007000060000 12 LEADERS Nichia13 Umicore16 B M7 Easpring6 Others4 OtherChina14 L F16 ShanInternalShan3 10 Reshine11 LCO 40KT 2013 NMC1 28KT 2013 Nichia12 Umicore24 Others20 LMO 15KT 2013 LFP 7KT 2013 Nichia8 OtherJapan16 Internal 6 Nikki18 Qyanyun15 OtherChina37 Tatung12 Aleees18 OtherJapan5 ClariantInternal5 6 A12310 Valence6 Formosa8 Others30 OtherChinaReshine13 5 ShanShan11 L F11 Internal4 1 IncludingNCA Tons ChristophePILLOT 33147784600c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025 CIBF2014 June18 20Shenzhen China CATHODEACTIVEMATERIALFORECASTS2000 2025 500000 100000 300000250000200000150000 2000200520102013201520202025 LFPLMONCANMC LCO Cathodeactivematerials2000 2025 Tons400000350000 13 ASSUMPTIONS Portabledevices 2010 2025 10 peryearinvolume HEV4 8MHEV yearin2020 35 LIB6 8MHEVin202590 LIBP HEV0 4MP HEV yearin2020 0 7Min2025100 LIBEV 1MEV yearin2020 1 5M yearin2025100 LIBIndustrial stationary2013 2020 16 peryear LCO42 NCA5 LMO18 NMC27 Cathodeactivematerialsin2013 90000TonsLFP8 LCO31 NMC30 LMO12 NCA5 Cathodeactivematerialsin2025 300000TonsLFP 22 Tons 2012 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 ChristophePILLOT 33147784600 c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025CIBF2014 June18 20Shenzhen China 14 ANODEACTIVEMATERIALS47000TONSIN2013LIBAnodeMaterials Source Sanyo March2011 0 0 1 00 80 60 40 2 Source A Jossen IRES2007LIBAnodeMaterials1 2 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 400003000020000100000 Source HitachiChemicalLIBAnodemarket Tons 50000LTO SiorSnTypeAmorphousCarbonMeso PhaseArtificialGraphite NaturalGraphite ChristophePILLOT 33147784600 c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterials trends2013 2025 CIBF2014June18 20Shenzhen China 0 50 100 SONYSANYO ATLMaxellLishenBYDLGCSDIPANASONIC ARTIFICIALMCMBNATURALAmorphousMETAL 15 ANODEFORLIBIN2013NaturalgraphitebecomeacommodityOthersA123BAK MCMB4 Amorphous4 SiorSnType1 LTO1 CarbonforLIBanodesbytype 2013 ArtificialGraphite26 NaturalGraphite64 Note MCMB MesocarbonMicrobeads NEWENTRANTSONTHEFIELD LEADERS M 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 4 ChristophePILLOT 33147784600c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025 CIBF2014 June18 20Shenzhen China LIBSEPARATORMARKET2013 LIBseparatormarket M CAGR2003 2013 17 LIBSeparatorsupplier marketsharein2013 16 Others TDK NittoDenko FoshanJinhuiHi Tech ShenzhenSeniorTechnologyMaterial XinxiangGreennextEnergy Dupont 2000 600400 1000800 1200 EVONIK TEIJIN HIFUTURE UBE MAXELL TREOFAN POROUSPOWER DREAMWEAVER GREEN SENIOR JINHUI NEWENTRANTSONTHEFIELD LEADERS ASAHI23 TONEN20 SUMITOMO5 SK12 ENTEK4 3 CELGARD13 FoshanJinhui UBE6 GreenSenior4 Others6 Tons 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ChristophePILLOT 33147784600 c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterials trends2013 2025 CIBF2014June18 20 Shenzhen China ELECTROLYTESUPPLIERS CUSTOMERS35000TONSIN2013 17 0 100005000 2000015000 350003000025000 LIBelectrolytemarket Tons CAGR2003 2013 24 40000 CellularPowertools PortablePCE bikes TabletsHEV PHEV EV Others Note 1 GTHR ZhangjiagangGuotai Huarong NEWENTRANTSONTHEFIELD LEADERS ZhangjiagangGuotai Huang JINNIU UBE6 MitsubishiChem15 In house10 Tomiyama3 PANAX ETEC 14 GTHR 16 Mitsui 3 Jinniu9 CapChem8 ShanShan8 LIBelectrolytesupplier marketsharein2013Soulbrain 8 Tons ChristophePILLOT 33147784600c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025CIBF2014June18 20 Shenzhen China LIBELECTROLYTEMARKET2013 In HouseJinniuCapchemShanshanSoulbrainUbe 1000 Electrolytemakersales2005 201360005000400030002000 200520062007200820092010201120122013 2 Panax EtecboughtSamsungChielactivitiesin201018 0 5000 10000 Sony ElectrolyteBatterymakers suppliersrelationin2013OthersTOSHIBAYuasa BEC YUASA LEJ NECA123BAKATLMaxellLishenBYDLGChemSDIPanasonic Tons TomiyamaMitsuiShanShan MitsubishiChemIn housePANAX ETECGTHRJinniuCapChemSoulbrain 1 Fullelectrolyteformulationin house ChristophePILLOT 33147784600c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025CIBF2014June18 20Shenzhen China TIMETOMARKETFORNEWMATERIALSINLIBINDUSTRY 19 c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterials trends2013 2025CIBF2014June18 20 Shenzhen ChinaChristophePILLOT 33147784600 20 CELLULARPHONES FORECASTS2010 2025 4000300020001000 OTHERSINDIAASIACHINAJAPANEUROPEUSA Cellularphonesdemand MUnits CAGR2010 2025 6 CellularPhonesmarketDrivers EmergentmarketRenewalratioincreaseSmartphonepenetrationincrease LIBcellsforcellularphonestrendsLaminatesratioincreaseIncreaseofThicknessIncreaseof 1400mAhcapacity LIBcellsdemand2010 2025Polymerpenetration 30 75 100 PolymerPrismatic 80 60 40 20 0 Source AVICENNEENERGYAnalyses Cyl Pris 1 Lam 16 83 LIBcellformat Volume 2013 TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterials trends2013 2025CIBF2014June18 20 Shenzhen ChinaChristophePILLOT 33147784600c pillot PORTABLEPCS FORECASTS2010 2025 2001000 EmergingMature PortablePCsdemand MUnits 2010 2025CAGR 4 400300 PortablePCsmarkettrendsMaturemarketstableordecreasingGrowthdrivenbyEmergingmarket Ultrabookisincreasing 20 1 to60 in2013 2 ASPdecreasing 499 PortablePCsincreasefrom25 in2010to33 in2012 1 Samsung AVICENNE 2 IntelLIBcellsforportablePCstrendsThinnercells Polymerpenetrationincreasingfrom7 in2010to28 in2025 2800mAhforPremium corporate2 2Ahforconsumer emergingmarket21 80 60 40 20 0 Source AVICENNEENERGYAnalyses Source IDC Gartner AVICENNEEnergyLIBcellsdemand2010 2025Polymerpenetration 7 28 100 LaminatePrismaticCylindrical Cyl Pris 1 Lam 16 83 LIBcellformat Volume 2013 Mcells year MWh 2000 2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 ChristophePILLOT 33147784600c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025CIBF2014June18 20Shenzhen China 2025LIBFORECASTSFORPORTABLEELECTRONICDEVICES 10000 1000009000080000700006000050000400003000020000 OthersHouseholdToysMP3VideoGamesDigitalCameraCamcordersCordlessPhonesTabletsPortablePCsCellularPhones 2000 2025LIBmarket MWh byapplication 3C 2000 2025LIBmarket Mcells byformfactor 3C 0 80007000600050004000300020001000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Li PLi ionPrLi ionCylTakeshita March2013 1 1 Source Takeshita BatteryJapan2013BJ 3conference Slidep422 0Source AVICENNEENERGYAnalyses Million 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 HEVpenetration oftotalcarsales ChristophePILLOT 33147784600 c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025CIBF2014June18 20Shenzhen China 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS WORLD HEVFORECASTS2000 2025HEVMARKET 2 5Millionunitsin2015 5Min2020 7Min2025 23 876543210 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS Microhybridnotincluded Background Mobile Automotive Aircraft c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025CIBF2014June18 20Shenzhen ChinaChristophePILLOT 33147784600 24 SAFETYISSUESLi ionandLMParenotthermallystablewhatraisesserioussafetyconcernsInthe80 s lithiummetalbatterieswereputintothemarkets MoliEnergy Theirfurtherdevelopmenthasforalongtimebeenslowbecauseofalowcycleefficiencyandsafetyissues Highchemicalreactivityandalowmeltingpointenablestrongchemicalreactions evenexplosions Inthecharging dischargingprocess lithiummetalcanformdendriteandaccumulateonelectrodes Thegrowinglithiumdendritecouldpuncturetheseparatorandresultinaninternalshortcircuit CONSEQUENCES ExceptBOLLORE allthecompaniesdevelopingLimetalbatteriescancelledtheirprojects Li ionbatteriesformobiledevicesmostlyusedaLithiumCobaltOxideCathodeandliquidelectrolyte Incaseofoverchargingorshort circuit contactbetweenanode cathode achainreactionstarts heating gasing fire Thermalrunaway CONSEQUENCES In2006 SONYhadtorecallmillionsofportablePCsfortotalcostsof400millionUSD morethanthereprofit to dateWithnewcathodechemistry mostoftheautomotivetodayonthemarketsexperiencedsafetyconcerns 1 BYDTaxiinChinawithalithiumironphosphatecathode 2 GMVoltintheUSwithaLGChemicalbatteryusingLMOcathodes asaresultofacrashedtestedChevroletVoltcaughtthreeweeksafterthetesting 3 PRIUSP HEVintheUS convertedfromHEVPriusbyalocalengineeringcompanywithoutanyauthorisationbyToyota Boing787 ThefirethatburnednearthetailofaparkedBoeing787inBostonwascausedbyanoverheatingLithiumionbatterypack Thebatteryfirecouldhavebeenhotenoughtomeltthecarbon fiberreinforcedplasticthatmakesuptheplane sshell CONSEQUENCES Allthe787worldwidearegrounded ConsiderablelossesforBoing ChristophePILLOT 33147784600c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025CIBF2014June18 20Shenzhen China 25 SAFETYISASINE QUA NONSELECTIONCRITERIAFORBATTERYTECHNOLOGIESSometechnologiesarealreadyoutofthegameduetostabilityissues TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025CIBF2014June18 20Shenzhen ChinaChristophePILLOT 33147784600c pillot LIBFORAUTOMOTIVEVALUECHAIN 3Tiers1 cellmanufacturersalliance mostofthemdisappear eg Saft JohnsonControls Bosch Samsung Enerdel Delphi 4Tiers1 OEMallianceonBatteryarenotsuccessful5PanasonicandLGChem cellmanufacturersdevelopraw materialin houseandmakethepackintegrationforOEM6Onadifferentscale Toyota BYDorBOLLOREarefullyintegrate26 Comments1Thelargestshareofthevalue 40 comesfromcellcomponents2Cellmanufacturers OEMalliancemaybethewinningmodelbutcomeswithhighriskifthewrongcellmanufacturerisselected ChristophePILLOT 33147784600 c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025 CIBF2014June18 20Shenzhen China 27 A123MichiganPlant PhotocourtesyofA123Systems LiotechPlant Novosibirsk 1 5GWhproductioncapacity 0 500 1000 1500 Rusnano ThunderSkyLithiumEnergyJapanHitachiVehicleEnergySBLimotiveGSYUASADowKokam KDABGMI Nissan Renault Fr Ener1SanyoA123JCILGChemBYDSonyNISSANMotorUSPANASONIC Nissan Renault Port BlueEnergyToshibaNissan Renault UK LGChem Compact M LIBMANUFACTURINGINVESTMENTS2009 201510 12B WORLDWIDE 50GWhin2015TotalInvestment M madeforLIBmanufacturingLiTecGmbHPanasonicEVSKEnergyMitsubishiH I NECTokin Electrodes AESCJaponHitachiVehicleEnergySAFTSAFTUSBAKLishen 150 150 350 Charger DC DC Generator ChristophePILLOT 33147784600c pillot TheworldwideBattery marketandmaterialstrends2013 2025 CIBF2014 June18 20Shenzhen China 28 100 400 900 1 250 150 350 250 300 500 50 1 000 400 2 500 1 500 3 000 HVbatterycell Packagingmaterial CoolingSyst InverterRectifierHVCables Connectors Batt MagtSyst Batt PackagingManuf converterInverter OverallLVbatterypack BATTERY POWERELEC COSTINEV 8 250 50 5 500 18 100 300 8 000HVbatt PackforEV 8 150 15 100HVbatt CELLforEV 0 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 PowerElecPackManufacturingBMSThermalMgmt packagingCellmanu Cell ActiveHybrid5 Volt Bluecar Leaf HEVP HEVAVICENNEENERGY CONFIDENTIALINFORMATION EV ChristophePILLOT 33147784600c pillot TheworldwideBatterymarketandmaterialstrends2013 2025 CIBF2014June18 20Shenzhen China LIBCELLBILLOFMATERIALS 29 AVICENNEENERGY CONFIDENTIALINFORMATION NISSANLEAF GMVOLT BMWACTIVEHYBRID5 BOLLOREBLUECAR kWh kWh Pack Cel