建立中美经济关系合作新习惯.doc

建立中美经济关系合作新习惯发言人：艾伦 F. 郝尔默大使“中国与战略经济对话”特使美国财政部中国，北京，清华大学2007年11月14日晚上好！非常高兴今天能来到清华大学访问。贵校在政治、商业和学术方面为中国培养了许多高层领导人，其中有很多人在推动中美关系发展方面发挥着举足轻重的作用，对他们的成就，我十分钦佩。我希望在座的各位也能在你们日后的职业生涯中，致力于中美关系的发展。个人观点今年二月，我开始担任“中国与战略经济对话”特使，当时吴仪副总理建议我去访问贵国北京和上海以外的其他地方，我愉快地接受了她的建议。在这一年中，我有幸参观访问了沈阳、青海、西安、成都、广州、深圳和香港。在我的行程中，我还走访了一些乡村以深入了解贵国在应对实现和谐平衡发展时所面临的挑战。可以说，贵国的复杂性即迷人又令人生畏。我所发现的中国是这样的：贫穷和富裕并生；现代与古代同在；共产主义和资本主义共存；改革和保守、主动与被动齐头并进。中国的活力、创新和多元化给我留下了深刻的印象。布什总统和财政部长保尔森一直强调繁荣的中国和稳定的双边关系是美国的利益所在。更重要的是，中国如此之大，人口如此之多，中国的变化不仅仅意味着她自身的变化，也意味着世界的变化。这对中美经济关系来说，既是机遇也是挑战。在此我想向大家介绍一下我本人一些观点。不断变化的经济关系中国在世界舞台上的再度崛起是近年来最有影响的地缘政治事件之一。现在几乎在所有的问题上，从贸易到国家安全，再到气候变化，几乎在所有的地方，从朝鲜到伊朗再到苏丹，中美的利益都越来越多地重叠在一起。中国已经与全球经济充分融合在一起，因此，中国经济所发生的一切都会影响到国际社会。合作性的、建设性的、坦诚的中美关系对于理解和回应中国的发展是至关重要的，这表现在各个可能的方面上。当我纵观中美经济关系的时候，我发现这一关系正在步入一个新阶段。首先，中美经济的互相依赖程度正在加深。在越来越多的经济及由经济引发的问题上，我们都更加需要彼此。在过去的五年间，据美国方面的数据，美国对中国的出口额已经从180亿美元增加到520亿美元，而美国从中国的进口额也从1020亿美元增加到2870亿美元。此外，美国和中国也正塑造着全球的能源和环境趋势，当然同时也为其所塑造。这种塑造与被塑造引发了不容忽视的经济后果。比如说，我们这两个国家是世界上最大的能源消费者和温室气体排放者。其次，贸易和投资曾经在很大程度上是双边关系稳定的原因，但是现在，它也正日益成为双方关系紧张的原因。这种状况影响了中美两国各自国内对于参与经济全球化益处的共识。 上世纪80年代，我首次深入参与国际贸易问题，那时我们和中国尚未有明显的贸易紧张，主要是因为那个时候我们还没有很多的双边贸易关系。从某种意义上讲，我们的贸易紧张正反映了我们关系的成熟及双边贸易与投资的迅速增长。我们需要确保能够有效处理这些紧张关系，使双边经济关系平稳发展。在WTO的框架内处理平等和主权经济体的贸易争端是一个正常机制。根据WTO的统计数据，从1994年WTO成立以来，已经有99宗案例对美国提出指控，而美国也对28个国家提出了88宗指控。在中国方面，有5宗案例是美国针对中国提出的，2宗是中国针对美国提出的。欧盟是向美国提出指控最多，共31宗，其次是加拿大，共14宗。对持续上升的贸易摩擦的忧虑体现在几个方面，这也是我将要说到的我们面临的第三个动因的缘由：经济民族主义和保护主义正在我们两个国家抬头。这些情绪可能会对领导者施加压力，使他们无法采取符合中美两国人民和经济长期利益的措施。在应对全球化方面，两国的决策者必须压制住一时冲动，不能为片面追求短期和被误导的政策效应而抛弃开放经济的长期奋斗的利益。例如，布什政府一直反对国会提出的反作用并对美经济产生威胁的，有关中国外汇管理方面的议案.。与此同时，在中国的国际收支经常项目顺差持续大规模增长，并对外汇市场进行长期大规模干预的情况下, 中国在美国对华出口和投资方面所设的壁垒使美国难以维持经济开放。相互依赖性的加深、受质疑的经济政策共识及经济保护主义的抬头 - 以上中美经济关系的三点新趋势是我们共同面临的问题，需要我们双方合作解决。化解复杂情况，建立合作新习惯这些动因促成了2006年布什总统和胡锦涛主席建立战略经济对话（SED）。他们对这一个论坛提出了设想，在一致强调长期战略关系的重要性的基础之上，为两国政府在高层面上的交流提供便利。化解我们的复杂情况，不断增加互助关系确实棘手，而且要求在合适的时间就合适的问题，用合适的方式与合适的人对话。很久以前我学到，不管是什么样的对话，如果你想有所收获，那么最重要的就是尽量设身处地为他人着想，站在他人的角度上去看世界。这样你才能达到一致，获得双赢 ，而且达成的一致既能促进双方共同的利益，又能经得住时间的考验。战略经济对话正体现了这样一种方式。SED作为中美关系中起领导作用的新的机制，已经为华盛顿和北京的决策者提供了有效的渠道。通过这种做法，我们重建了稳定繁荣的经济互动的基础。就SED而言，美国有三大核心目标。建立合作新习惯首先，通过这一框架，我们正以建立双边合作新习惯的方式推动中美关系前进。我们已经制订出一个大的议程，内容涵盖交叉经济和因经济发展引发的重大问题，如监管透明度、能源节省、环境保护、创新、食品和产品安全，以及重大的经济问题，如汇率和宏观经济政策、市场准入、金融市场发展和开放。我们敦促双方各个层次各个方面的政府官员开展更为多样的互动活动，打破妨碍有效交流和成果产生的烟囱管式的传统官僚体制。与此同时，我们通过连续高层次的互动设定目标并保证它们的贯彻实施。虽然如此，好的过程并不一定保证达成好的结果。中国和美国高级官员之间展开的对话，虽然有用，但不能为了对话而对话，也不能仅限于对话。它的意义在于设定目标，明确结果和完善实际解决方案。直接沟通交流正是如此：在中美关系史上，它一直以减少误会、排除误解的方式使两国关系平稳发展。通过它，我们能向中国说：我们欢迎一个自信、和平、繁荣的中国的崛起。脆弱的、不安全的中国并非美国经济及安全之利益所在。加快中国经济转型第二，我们共同的政策应加快中国下一轮改革开放的进程，这一点极其重要。中国经济增长的速度是有目共睹的，但还需要不断努力。中国的最高领导已经认识到他们所面临的一个重大难题，即如何在不再处于初级经济增长阶段的情况下采取必要的果断措施。我们非常赞同目前的领导班子所做的努力，他们正在将现有经济转型为更加以市场为导向的、更少依赖于低附加值的制造业出口的，更多依赖于中国人民的技术和才智的，更少物质投入和自然资源消耗型的经济。中国面临的重大风险之一就是政府的行动不够迅速，无法及时采取政策手段处理其经济增长模式所带来的经济和社会的不平衡。没有强有力的政策调整，中国的经济增长道路就不会持久，这也是中国的领导层公开声明的。我们鼓励关键性的改革，帮助中国化解经济增长过火的速度带来的问题，包括金融市场开放和调整增长使其获得平衡的规划。中国已经向世界证明它可以发展的很快，但是它能同样证明它可以用不同的方式发展吗？能不能在发展的同时既重数量又重质量？能不能最终获得可持续性的发展？中国需要采取果断的结构性政策来转变其经济增长方式，目前其经济增长方式的特点还是重工业多、能源使用高、资金密集、依赖出口，因此应转变为更依赖国内市场及服务产品的经济增长方式，国民收入中由家庭收入的份额应当增加。让市场力量有效地调节经济，让繁荣发展惠及所有的中国人。中国需要有更为灵活的价格机制，这包括灵活的、市场驱动的汇率。汇率灵活可以使货币政策这一指导经济最有力的手段集中在保证价格和金融稳定方面。另外，人民币汇率正在被越来越多的国家视为不公平竞争的原因之一。越来越多的国家领导人和多边机构在呼吁货币升值。上个月在华盛顿举行的国际货币基金组织（IMF）年会上，达成了一份联合公报，要求人民币汇率机制更加灵活。IMF联合公报明确了在保持全球发展的同时，有序解决全球不平衡问题是各国共同的责任。就美国而言，有需要做的事情，如采取行动推动美国的国家存款，不断巩固其财政。我很高兴地宣布我们正在取得进步，尽管我们要做的工作还没完成。根据最新的数据，美国联邦预算赤字下降了一半左右。从2005年到2007年间，由占GDP的2 %下降到1 %。中国未来能否成功的关键在于它是否愿意加快以市场为基础的经济改革的步伐。履行甚至是超越它对WTO所做出的承诺。抵制保护主义的情绪，开放其经济，使其产品走向更广的国际竞争。特别需要指出的是服务业的发展会有助于调整经济，使更多的中国人从经济繁荣中受惠。这些改革目前以及今后都会受影响不断扩大的中国商业的抵制。在我看来，中国长期经济安全的最大危险不在于中国开放的太快，而在于保护主义的盛行和改革步伐太慢。鼓励中国在国际往来中承担其对世界责任第三，也是最后一点，我们支持中国积极担负起全球经济强国的责任。我们欢迎中国加入重要的国际金融机构，并赋予中国更强的话语权。从2006年SED初创以来，我们支持中国加入了泛美开发银行(IADB)和设在巴黎的金融行动专责委员会（FATF）。我们强烈支持中国在国际货币基金组织和世界银行里拥有更多的投票权。更多的参与可以使中国从这些机构中获益；不过，北京也应当意识到其责任，更加积极参与，这一点十分重要。对许多最贫穷国家而言，中国已成为他们重要的国外援助国，我们希望与中国 - 一个新的并受欢迎的新参与者 - 携手在多边关系中努力保证对外援助和贷款切实促进可持续发展。在中美经济关系的新时代，我们的商业活动要求有新的发展措施。我们正在通过创造政治空间和发展机制能力来迎接这些挑战，以促进我们双边经济关系的长期发展。我们的指导原则为了实现这些目标，我们的战略指导原则是共担责任和共享利益。尽管很朴素，还有一点让人迷惑，但是确实是这些原则构成了我们经济逻辑的核心，这一逻辑就是支持中国深化改革，推动中美关系发展。我提出共担责任和共享利益是要强调这么一点：美国针对中国的经济政策并不是起因于想要去塑造中国在美国的形象，也不是根据另外一种经济发展的模式。中国是有着独特历史、文化和经济背景的独立自主的国家。但是，我们希望中国领导能充分借鉴美国的经验，了解美国在建设强大开放经济时所达到的深度。SED与中国的对话方式建立在可引以为鉴的历史教训的基础之上。我们秉持市场作用的信念，承认中美有着广泛的共同的战略利益。它反映出中国需要争取那些以可持续并无通胀发展为中心的市场改革。按照共担责任共享利益的原则行动，美国和中国的决策者都能继续推动全球经济一体化，并维持双方关系的稳定。我们将并肩作战，共同负担费用，挑起重担，也共同收获利益。如果不勇于承担，不履行我们共同的责任，中美两国人民将无法分享到未来的利益。标志和基准对话和协商都是重要的，但是远远不能保证我们的双边关系保持平稳发展并坚持未来为导向。为了展示正在逐步实现长期共同目标, 我们需要具体的进展。我们在五月份时发布了一项新的航空服务协定，该协定的成果是：到2012年时，美国和中国之间的客运量将翻一番；到2011年时，两国之间的航空货运将充分完全实现。除了两国之间的商务利益外，还会带来附加的利益，如更多的商业活动和文化交流，双方理解也会因此加深。我们将在一系列政策上与中国合作，促进清洁高效的新一代能源技术得到开发和使用。反过来，这一努力会带来美好的前景，让这两个最大的经济国家为世人树立以可持续发展为目标的双边合作的典范。我们与中国携手在中国发展更为现代和高效的资金市场。这也有助于中国更快地走向由市场决定的汇率价格，从而提高政府利用货币政策促进价格和金融稳定的能力。我们之间充分的对话，让我们坦率、诚实、迅速地面对问题。最近不断有关于变质食物和产品进口的问题的报道，这些报道正引起美国消费者的恐慌和怀疑，损害了在美国的“中国制造”的牌子。中国处理这些安全问题的有效性对中美关系、中国融入世界贸易体系和中国经济增长的可持续性都有着长远的影响。我们需要两国的决策者重视建立在科学基础之上的安全决定，不能把决定建立在民族主义情绪或报复心理之上。12月在北京举行的下一次内阁级的中美战略经济对话（SED）上，我们将讨论许多诸如此类的目标。我们还会特别强调以下问题，包括贸易诚心、经济发展平衡、能源对话、金融市场改革、环境可持续发展和推动双边投资等。走向双边经济关系的美好未来布什总统和胡主席已经为加强两国经济关系发展制订了积极的日程。中美战略经济对话（SED）构成了这一日程的核心部分，因为SED的目光长远、范围宽广，还具备当机立断的能力，即能处理最敏感的双边经济紧张问题。美国和中国合作的方式和效力将会对21世纪经济和地缘政治景观产生深远的影响。这一孕育中的未来等待我们用清晰的远见和有效的机制催生。建设合作新习惯，SED会使美国和中国在其战略经济关系上谱写新的篇章！Remarks by Secretary Paulson on Managing Complexity and Establishing New Habits of Cooperation in U.S.-China Economic Relationsat the 2007 George Bush China-U.S. Relations ConferenceWashington, DC-Good morning, General Scowcroft, Vice President Li, President Davis and Ambassador Popadiuk. I appreciate the opportunity to be here at the Third George Bush China-U.S. Relations Conference. This room is filled with the very best of China expertise and experience from both sides of the Pacific. I applaud your commitment to this bilateral relationship. And of course, there is no better example of this than former President Bush ?who has long been a stalwart advocate of advancing U.S.-China ties. I have devoted much of my professional life ?and far too many hours on planes ?to learning about and increasing U.S. commercial ties with the Peoples Republic of China. Now, as Treasury Secretary, I would like to share my thoughts with you on the future of the U.S.-China economic relationship. New Global Realities and Emerging Bilateral ChallengesChinas re-emergence on the global stage is one of the most consequential geopolitical events of recent times. Chinas global influence is expanding. A cooperative, constructive and candid U.S.-China relationship is central to understanding and responding to Chinas re-emergence, in all its possible manifestations. The United States must manage our disagreements with China, foster greater bilateral cooperation and improve our ability to work constructively with China across all dimensions of national power. There is hardly an issue ?from trade, to national security, to climate change ?or a place ?from North Korea to Iran to Sudan ?where American and Chinese interests do not increasingly overlap. Because China is now integrated into the global economy, what happens in Chinas economy affects the entire international community. The U.S.-China relationship has become central not only to each nations interests, but also to the maintenance of a stable, secure and prosperous global system ?which benefits the world. My focus at Treasury is on the U.S.-China economic relationship, which is a core element of our overall bilateral ties. Yet, the tectonic plates of the U.S.-China economic relationship are shifting. This demands new visions from our leaders and new mechanisms from our governments. First, U.S.-China economic interdependence is deepening. We need each other more and on a broader number of economic and economically consequential issues. Over the past five years, U.S. exports to China have grown at five times the pace of U.S. exports to the rest of the world, and China has become our fourth largest export market. Exports to China benefit American businesses by providing new market opportunities for American products and services. Imports from China continue to benefit the American economy and the American consumer by providing an increased diversity of products at lower prices. Imports from China also raise challenges, as I will discuss in a moment. Just as competition from trade with China pushes our industries to stay on the cutting edge, competition will also speed Chinas development as a more market-oriented and balanced economy.Moreover, the United States and China are shaping, and being shaped by, global energy and environmental trends, which have strong economic consequences. Our countries are the worlds largest energy consumers and the largest emitters of greenhouse gases. What happens with Chinas environment impacts all nations; air and water know no boundaries. These trends create challenges that can not be resolved by the United States or China alone. They certainly can not be solved without China at the table.Second, whereas trade and investment were once largely a source of stability in bilateral relations, they are now increasingly also a source of tension. Such tensions are straining our domestic consensus on the benefits of economic engagement. Americas large corporations ?the longtime proponents of bilateral engagement ?as well as Americas smaller businesses ?who are finding new markets in China ?increasingly are concerned about the openness of Chinas economy, and Chinese counterfeiting of trademarks and pirating of intellectual property. Some American workers believe the field of competition is uneven and unfair. Also, American consumers have very real concerns about the safety of food and product imports from China.These anxieties manifest themselves in several ways, which leads me to the third dynamic confronting us: the rise of economic nationalism and protectionism in both our nations. These sentiments may constrain leaders from adopting policies that are in the long-term interests of the citizens and economies of the United States and China. Such views also obscure each nations ability to assess the others long-term intentions. In responding to globalization, policymakers in both countries must resist the impulse to discard the hard-fought and long-term gains of open economies by pursuing short-term and misguided policy responses. I am committed to working to maintain an open trade and investment climate in America and to working to open markets in China to greater competition from American goods and services. These three emerging dynamics to our economic relationship ?deepening interdependence, a strained policy consensus, and the rise of economic protectionism ?are mutual and require cooperative solutions. Managing Complexity and Establishing New Habits of CooperationThese dynamics informed the creation of the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) by President Bush and President Hu Jintao in 2006. They envisioned a forum to allow both governments to communicate at the highest levels and with one voice on issues of long-term and strategic importance to ensure bilateral economic stability and prosperity. By definition, this is a complex relationship and managing complexity is daunting. It begins with speaking to the right people ?at the right time ?on the right issues ?and in the right way. The Strategic Economic Dialogue ?as a new and leading institution in U.S.-China relations ?has created these useful channels among policymakers in Washington and Beijing. Through this framework we have advanced the U.S.-China economic relationship by establishing new habits of bilateral cooperation and re-setting the foundation for stable and prosperous economic interactions. We have embraced a broad agenda that covers cross-cutting economic and economically consequential issues, including regulatory transparency, energy conservation, environmental protection, food and product safety, as well as the important economic issues of exchange rate policy, market access, financial sector liberalization, and macroeconomic policy. Our approach engages multiple and diverse government officials in both countries to facilitate more inclusive interactions. It breaks down classic bureaucratic stove-pipes that hinder effective communication and impede results. At the same time, we have continual, high-level interactions to set priorities and ensure their full implementation. I talk regularly on the phone with my counterpart Vice Premier Wu Yi, and our staffs are in constant contact. That said ?process is not result. Dialogue among senior Chinese and American officials, while useful, needs to be more than talking for the sake of talking and can not give leaders a pass on issues of disagreement. It is about setting priorities, specifying consequences and fashioning practical solutions. And thats what direct engagement does: it keeps the relationship on an even keel by lessening miscommunication and dispelling misperceptions so common in the history of the U.S.-China relationship. Moreover, solidifying these habits of cooperation is critical to sustaining Americas broader China policy, both at home and abroad. It further signals to China that we welcome the rise of a confident, peaceful and prosperous China, while also helping America to hedge against an uncertain Chinese future. A weak and insecure China is not in Americas economic or security interests. In addition to establishing new ways of working together, it is vitally important that our policies accelerate and deepen Chinas ongoing economic transition. We applaud Chinas efforts to transition to an economy that is more market-oriented, less reliant on low-cost manufacturing exports, one that depends more on the skills and resourcefulness of the Chinese people and less on material inputs and natural resource consumption.The pace of Chinas growth has clearly been remarkable, but it carries both opportunity and risk. I liken it to some of Americas fastest growing entrepreneurial companies, who see sales rise exponentially in a short time and then must earnestly work to build the infrastructure to sustain those sales. This is the challenge that Chinas leaders now face ?to make the jump in strategy and policy needed for an economy that is no longer in the first stages of growth. A major risk China faces is that its government wont act quickly enough to take the policy steps necessary to deal with the economic and social imbalances created by its growth model. Without strong policy underpinnings and implementation, Chinas economic performance becomes unsustainable. We are encouraging key reforms that will help China manage the blistering pace of its economic growth; these include financial market liberalization and a plan for rebalancing growth. China has proven to the world that it can grow fast, but can it grow differently and, ultimately, grow smarter? Bold structural policies are needed to shift Chinas growth away from heavy industry, high energy use, and dependence on exports ?towards greater reliance on domestic demand, greater production of services, and greater provision of material well-being to Chinas population. As I have said before, this will be much easier, and the prospects for achieving sustained, balanced growth in China and in the world economy much greater, if the Chinese increase the pace of RMB appreciation in the short term and implement a fully market-determined currency in the medium term. Currency appreciation to date has not slowed the Chinese economy. Accelerating the rate of appreciation and introduction of flexibility will help China deal with the imbalances that have grown in the economy and make monetary policy much more effective in responding to inflation. We must also recognize that currency is not the only driver of Chinas economic imbalances. Even more fundamental and important are internal structural issues, such as why Chinese households save so much and consume so little. Rebalancing Chinas growth is necessary for China to grow without generating large external imbalances. A key to Chinas success here will be its willingness to accelerate the pace of its market-based economic reforms. Going beyond its WTO commitments, resisting protectionist sentiment, and opening up its economy to greater international competition for goods and services will help rebalance the Chinese economy and spread prosperity more broadly among the Chinese people. These reforms are ?and will continue to be ?resisted by increasingly influential Chinese businesses. In my judgment, the greatest risk to Chinas long-term economic security is that protectionists prevail, and Chinese reforms proceed too slowly. And finally, we are also encouraging China to act responsibly as a global economic power. China is influencing capital and resource markets all over the world; its economic influence is being felt from Chicago, to Sao Paolo, to Kinshasa. We welcome China into key international financial institutions and are giving China a greater voice in them as well. Increased participation will allow China to advance its interests in those institutions, but it is also important that Beijing recognize the responsibilities of greater participation. China has become a major source of foreign aid for many of the poorest countries. We look forward to working with China to assure that foreign aid and lending practices promote sustainable development. This new era in U.S.-China economic relations requires new and dynamic ways of doing business. We are meeting these challenges through the creation of the political space and the institutional capacity for long-term stability in our bilateral economic relation